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Semi-Final - Brazil v Germany > Tuesday July 8th


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[TABLE=class: couponTable, width: 617]

[TR=class: row0] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Brazil v Germany (21:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.96[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.35[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.72[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.40 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]
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Re: Semi-Final - Brazil v Germany > Tuesday July 8th I think germany has too much defensively for Brazil to even get a goal in this match. Silva scored after a horrible defensive job by a colombian and luiz scores that goal one in fifteen attempts. Fred will be passive under german defending and neymar is a big blow confidence-wise. If germany can get a goal, i think they will sit back somewhat like they did against france and win to zero. The germans has not been as convincing either, but i mean that the hype on brazil to be world cup winners makes the odds on germany, even now as it has droppped from +3, overpriced.

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Re: Semi-Final - Brazil v Germany > Tuesday July 8th The injury to Neymar has really affected the odds, germany are favourites in some places. Most of the talk is that Willian will replace him in the starting XI. Neymar was fairly quiet against Columbia, and I think Germany would have just done a job on him anyway defending wise. The home advantage is still there and I feel brazil are value at these odds. Back Brazil 2.85 @ Bwin

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Re: Semi-Final - Brazil v Germany > Tuesday July 8th I have made my money on the Brazilians getting to the semi's and now feels the right time to oppose them. The obvious catalyst to this is the fact that Neymar and Silva will be missing and that is a massive loss for both the defence and the attack as they are the key players in both positions. Germany will look to dominate possession - which they should be able to do against a poor ball retaining side like Brazil have been so far - and create a few chances as they go. I didn't fancy Germany at all before the tournament started in fact I said I would lay them above all other top 4 sides but they have once again proved that they are a top tournament side. There is no emotion in the mix like there is for Brazil, and I don't feel that unless it comes from a set piece Brazil have the creativity in the team to open Germany up, so much of their attack was based around getting the ball to Neymar. Germany looked a much better side against France and hopefully will continue to use Lahm as a full back as the defence looks much more solid with him there, Schwein can play the holding role just as well and his passing is much superior. I can't see there being many goals either but at 1.6 it doesn't appeal. Germany 0AH - 1.98 - pinnacle - 2 Points

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Re: Semi-Final - Brazil v Germany > Tuesday July 8th Totally agree. Massive losses for Brasil. Bad for the neutral supporters and the brazilian fans. No fair contest anymore ino. Germany will surely have too much for them. Heavily weakened without these two key players. Subs are fine no doubts about Dante or Willian. But without much time in this world cup they surely need some time to adapt and germany can be deadly upfront quite fast. Midfield is way stronger than the brasil one. Brasil will surely struggle to find the net here so I backed the germans early for 2.80 massive value imo. Odds slashed down to 2.50 on many bookies so I'm glad with these early bets. 0-1 0-2 likely results for me! Germany showed against france they can neutralize an enemy quite comfortable while everyone expected a much tighter game. That game pulled the trigger for this bet. Goodluck!

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Re: Semi-Final - Brazil v Germany > Tuesday July 8th If Brazil want to kick and punch Germany out of the match like against Colombia, think again. That's like trying to headbutt a rhino. Now that Lowe has come to his senses and reverted back to the 4-2-3-1 which is the "right" way to play, (Mertesaker on the bench) :clap all the players look more comfortable. Considering the Bayern boys play this way the best and not Guardiola's tiki taka. So they are all playing to their strengths now. They should of won by more against France but we saw that Schurlle can't be relied upon to finish on this stage. I can see these cold and calculated Germans slitting Brazil's throat here one way or another. The only team Germany fear in these stages is Italy who is a thorn in their side. Looking at the teams left, Germany will be thinking they'll have one hand on the trophy if they knock out Brazil. Germany are smart, strong, know how to manage a match in the middle better than Brazil's midfield, and most play for Bayern which is a huge bonus. Kroos, Muller and Ozil can really make the difference here playing behind Kolse. Won't even mention the 2 absences for Brazil. Last 2 players they'd want to lose. Devastating blow. Agree with Hast. +0 AH has to be the play.

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Re: Semi-Final - Brazil v Germany > Tuesday July 8th Still early to point out what will be my bets, but this clearly smells like 0-0 FT all over once again. However, I wouldn't be surprised if Scolari presented a defensive formation here, grabbing set pieces in the first 15 minutes to score fast, and then sit back during the whole match. Brazil know that with no star factor (Thiago Silva and Neymar), they will have to perform it the other way around: bad and ugly. Plus, even without their main stars, other players will be on their best motivation ever to prove everyone they're just not one-hit wonders. I wouldn't discard Brazil just now. Germany have the edge but Brazil could qualify as well.

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Re: Semi-Final - Brazil v Germany > Tuesday July 8th Given the situation, the way both teams have played in the knockout stages and the obvious prize of a final spot I think that Under 1.5 goals offers decent value here. That's BEFORE taking into account that Neymar is out. Brazil have looked pretty average and it's only their sheer refusal to lose that's got them this far. I can't pick a result and feel the bookies have it priced pretty much spot on given the situation. The 1/4's showed us how this tournament is gonna wind down, too much at stake for cavalier football and I wouldn't be surprised if the last 3 games all end up Under 1.5. Under 1.5 goals @ 2.8 @888 Still, I'd happily lose my bet for 7 goal thriller.

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Re: Semi-Final - Brazil v Germany > Tuesday July 8th I still think Neymar is not such a superstar as the media is trying to present him. Of course, compared to the awfully playing at this tournament Hulk and Fred, he is much bigger threat, but I think he is still far from the impact that players like Robben, Messi and James have on their respective teams. He was very clueless in both games against Chile and Colombia, he was mediocre also against Croatia, albeit scoring a penalty and long shot range, followed by a keeper's mistake. My point is that I think Brazil's major weapon at this tournament are set pieces and aggressive pressure (often crossing the boundaries of fair play, but still tolerated by officials), and not Neymar Junior. So, I wouldn't over-value his absence and discard Brazil. Thiago Silva also has got a strong replacement in the face of Dante. I think the most obvious bet should be in the cards market. Germany has been pretty shy regarding yellow cards - just 4 yellows so far in 5 games: 2 against France, 1 against USA and Algeria. Brazil on the other hand get many yellows - 9 so far in the tournament and 5 only in the last two elimination games. And to be fair, this number should have been much bigger if it wasn't for referees' tolerating Brazil' aggressive tackles, and for the overall policy of officials at the tournament to give less yellow cards. However, there is one very important factor - yellow cards WILL BE cleaned after the semis, so no player will risk missing the final because of a yellow card. This should have some effect on referees and probably help them lower their criteria for showing yellow cards, as they have had unusually high at this tournament, which many specialist contribute to the "no clearing of yellow cards" rule. Brazil is much more aggressive than Germany in the pressing and they have got way too many players prone to making dangerous tackles: Fernandinho, Luis Gustavo, David Luis, Alves, Marcelo - just to name a few. The expectations are that the possession will be mainly with the Germans which should additionally create better circumstances for Brazil yellows. Also, I expect the emotional burden on the BRazilians will be much heavier, which might result in moments of loss of temper and self-control. They are surely much more likely to get cards for non-football reasons (arguing with the referee) as well. Brazil to get more yellows @ 2.05 (Marathon)

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Re: Semi-Final - Brazil v Germany > Tuesday July 8th Never usually do a double, but Germany/Argentina is tempted me since I have more faith in Germany, then would lay Argentina to cover it. Personally I think Brazil will struggle to have the same attacking flare, especially since they're not exactly going to want Germany to be coming at them on the return too much. I think we'll get another fairly cautious game, so 0-0 isn't out of the question, but I am leaning towards Germany 1-0, low scoring either way. I like the look of that cards bet Fedar, might put a little bit on it. But for me.... Under 2.5 goals which can be found @ 1.6 Unibet (and others) Then I'd also put a smaller amount on Under 1.5 @ 2.8 Unibet Then possible the German/Argy double, which gives around 6.5. Hmm Germany to win to nil has a nice return too.... ..I'll have to think about things here haha.

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Re: Semi-Final - Brazil v Germany > Tuesday July 8th

Never usually do a double, but Germany/Argentina is tempted me since I have more faith in Germany, then would lay Argentina to cover it. Personally I think Brazil will struggle to have the same attacking flare, especially since they're not exactly going to want Germany to be coming at them on the return too much. I think we'll get another fairly cautious game, so 0-0 isn't out of the question, but I am leaning towards Germany 1-0, low scoring either way. I like the look of that cards bet Fedar, might put a little bit on it. But for me.... Under 2.5 goals which can be found @ 1.6 Unibet (and others) Then I'd also put a smaller amount on Under 1.5 @ 2.8 Unibet Then possible the German/Argy double, which gives around 6.5. Hmm Germany to win to nil has a nice return too.... ..I'll have to think about things here haha.
These are very good bets in my opinion. I could combine them in a Germany to win and under 2.5 goals bet. The first thought that came to my mind after the news of Neymar's injury and Thiago Silva's suspension was "Germany is going to win it in a tight match, Brazil is going to have trouble scoring in Neymar's absence?".
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Re: Semi-Final - Brazil v Germany > Tuesday July 8th Marco Rodríguez of Mexico will referee the match in Belo Horizonte on Tuesday. The referee who failed to see Luis Suarez bite an opponent has been picked to officiate Brazil's World Cup semifinal against Germany. From wikipedia - In Mexico, Rodríguez is known for being a very strict referee who gives many yellow and red cards.[1]

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Re: Semi-Final - Brazil v Germany > Tuesday July 8th

Brazil is much more aggressive than Germany in the pressing and they have got way too many players prone to making dangerous tackles: Fernandinho, Luis Gustavo, David Luis, Alves, Marcelo - just to name a few. The expectations are that the possession will be mainly with the Germans which should additionally create better circumstances for Brazil yellows. Also, I expect the emotional burden on the BRazilians will be much heavier, which might result in moments of loss of temper and self-control. They are surely much more likely to get cards for non-football reasons (arguing with the referee) as well. Brazil to get more yellows @ 2.05 (Marathon)
I like the reasoning, but I'm not convinced that this bet is good value, bearing in mind it's a 3-way market (Brazil, equal number, Germany)
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Re: Semi-Final - Brazil v Germany > Tuesday July 8th

However' date=' there is one very important factor - [b']yellow cards WILL BE cleaned after the semis, so no player will risk missing the final because of a yellow card. This should have some effect on referees and probably help them lower their criteria for showing yellow cards, as they have had unusually high at this tournament, which many specialist contribute to the "no clearing of yellow cards" rule.
I believe this is incorrect. My understanding is that all cards were wiped clean at the end of the Quarter Final stage and now no players are on a yellow card.
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Re: Semi-Final - Brazil v Germany > Tuesday July 8th

I believe this is incorrect. My understanding is that all cards were wiped clean at the end of the Quarter Final stage and now no players are on a yellow card.
That's what I meant, probably my wording was incorrect. The point is that a yellow card here will bring no punishment for the finals, unlike in all previous games, which could affect both players (being one idea more aggressive) and referees (being less tolerant).
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Re: Semi-Final - Brazil v Germany > Tuesday July 8th

I like the reasoning' date=' but I'm not convinced that this bet is good value, bearing in mind it's a 3-way market (Brazil, equal number, Germany)[/quote'] To be successful such a bet, it needs to land more than 50% of the cases. At least based on preliminary reasoning and argument, this should clearly have more than 50% chance of happening. Normally, before analyzing a game, I have a few possible bets in mind (based on my impressions about the teams involved) and I don't look at the price before I make up my own price, so that I can draw objective comparison. I was thinking about 1.68-1.70 price for such bet, and at 2.05 I am more than willing to take it (of course, it is subjective and personal judgment).
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Re: Semi-Final - Brazil v Germany > Tuesday July 8th I'm going for the relatively 'safer' option of Under 2.5 and BTTS (no) @ 1.90 (Bet365). World Cup Semi-Finals are notoriously low-scoring, tight affairs. Even though Germany are arguably the stronger side, now more so than ever with Neymar and Silva out through injury, I think it's too close to call to predict a winner in normal time. After all, Brazil are on home soil with the twelve man being the crowd and motivation behind them. I would expect a cagey game, with not many clear cut chances. If a team were to win, it would be by one or two goals (maximum), with the team in the lead protecting it until the final whistle.

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Re: Semi-Final - Brazil v Germany > Tuesday July 8th Neither team have looked great up till now but i have been more disappointed in Brazil. Was reading the other day that if they were to win this tournament they would be the worst team to ever do so, I can only remember back till the 98 world cup so not sure if that is true but it gives me an idea of how average they are. Without 2 of there main players Silva & Neymar along with the added pressure from the millions cheering them on i just think they will buckle and with Germany being Germany they always seem to get the job done. This is the 4th time in a row the Germans have reached a semi final of a world cup and i believe they will go on to win it this year, at the very least get to the final. Germany to qualify @ 10/11 bet365 :hope

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Re: Semi-Final - Brazil v Germany > Tuesday July 8th Back for Germany but will put a bet on Brazil to win as for up until today's performances we all know what shall follow, i will be surprised to see a European final

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Re: Semi-Final - Brazil v Germany > Tuesday July 8th

Marco Rodríguez of Mexico will referee the match in Belo Horizonte on Tuesday. The referee who failed to see Luis Suarez bite an opponent has been picked to officiate Brazil's World Cup semifinal against Germany. From wikipedia - In Mexico, Rodríguez is known for being a very strict referee who gives many yellow and red cards.[1]
Yes, strict referee who would put down Germany as apparently he doesn't like the European countries, pretty sure that Brazil will win this match
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Re: Semi-Final - Brazil v Germany > Tuesday July 8th

I still think Neymar is not such a superstar as the media is trying to present him. Of course, compared to the awfully playing at this tournament Hulk and Fred, he is much bigger threat, but I think he is still far from the impact that players like Robben, Messi and James have on their respective teams. He was very clueless in both games against Chile and Colombia, he was mediocre also against Croatia, albeit scoring a penalty and long shot range, followed by a keeper's mistake. My point is that I think Brazil's major weapon at this tournament are set pieces and aggressive pressure (often crossing the boundaries of fair play, but still tolerated by officials), and not Neymar Junior. So, I wouldn't over-value his absence and discard Brazil. Thiago Silva also has got a strong replacement in the face of Dante. I think the most obvious bet should be in the cards market. Germany has been pretty shy regarding yellow cards - just 4 yellows so far in 5 games: 2 against France, 1 against USA and Algeria. Brazil on the other hand get many yellows - 9 so far in the tournament and 5 only in the last two elimination games. And to be fair, this number should have been much bigger if it wasn't for referees' tolerating Brazil' aggressive tackles, and for the overall policy of officials at the tournament to give less yellow cards. However, there is one very important factor - yellow cards WILL BE cleaned after the semis, so no player will risk missing the final because of a yellow card. This should have some effect on referees and probably help them lower their criteria for showing yellow cards, as they have had unusually high at this tournament, which many specialist contribute to the "no clearing of yellow cards" rule. Brazil is much more aggressive than Germany in the pressing and they have got way too many players prone to making dangerous tackles: Fernandinho, Luis Gustavo, David Luis, Alves, Marcelo - just to name a few. The expectations are that the possession will be mainly with the Germans which should additionally create better circumstances for Brazil yellows. Also, I expect the emotional burden on the BRazilians will be much heavier, which might result in moments of loss of temper and self-control. They are surely much more likely to get cards for non-football reasons (arguing with the referee) as well. Brazil to get more yellows @ 2.05 (Marathon)
Beautifully explaned...putting a big bet of 33$ for brazil to get more den 1.5 cards @ 1.75 bet365. :hope
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Re: Semi-Final - Brazil v Germany > Tuesday July 8th Brazil to Qualify Evens @ William Hill - You could argue a strong case for either of these teams qualifying but i feel that the home crowd could have a big role to play in this game. Germany have been notorious bottlers of late in major competitions losing the World Cup Final in 2002 ironically to Brazil and being knocked out in the Semi-Final in 2006 and 2010 by Italy and Spain. They also lost in the Final of Euro 2008 to Spain and lost in the Semi-Finals of Euro 2012 to Italy. There seems to be a mental block with German teams over the last 12 years where they just cannot get over the line and buckle under the pressure. Despite Neymar and Thiago Silva's absence i still see Brazil as slight favourites to qualify. They have not played well in this World Cup but are good at grinding out wins when playing badly. Germany have not particularly impressed me apart from their opening 4-0 win against Portugal although Portugal went down to 10 men in the first half. Taking into account the importance of home advantage and the fact that Germany have fallen regularly at this stage of the tournament lately i see Brazil going through.

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Re: Semi-Final - Brazil v Germany > Tuesday July 8th Im in for rather big stakes on the cards bets also, Unibet have now released their booking markets and they offer 2.05 for Brazil to have most 'booking points'. I like this one better as it has reduced likelyhood of draw, counting yellow as 10 and red as 25. So in the event of brazil getting a red and germany 2 yellow, you still win. If its the opposite, you wouldn't have won anyway (assuming marathon counts red as 2 yellow). Edit: it would appear bet365 is now offering 2.30 for brazil to get the most cards in a 3-way with 0.0 handicap!

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Re: Semi-Final - Brazil v Germany > Tuesday July 8th

Im in for rather big stakes on the cards bets also, Unibet have now released their booking markets and they offer 2.05 for Brazil to have most 'booking points'. I like this one better as it has reduced likelyhood of draw, counting yellow as 10 and red as 25. So in the event of brazil getting a red and germany 2 yellow, you still win. If its the opposite, you wouldn't have won anyway (assuming marathon counts red as 2 yellow). Edit: it would appear bet365 is now offering 2.30 for brazil to get the most cards in a 3-way with 0.0 handicap!
These handicap markets are dangerous as Germany may get 2 yellow meaning you will need Brazil to get 3 to win. I've seen many matches where referees will give a yellow to one team and then when the other team does a challenge maybe not so dangerous, they get a yellow as well to make it look like the ref is being impartial. The Brazil over 1.5 yellows at 1.83 at bet365 may be safer option in my opinon
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Re: Semi-Final - Brazil v Germany > Tuesday July 8th

These handicap markets are dangerous as Germany may get 2 yellow meaning you will need Brazil to get 3 to win. I've seen many matches where referees will give a yellow to one team and then when the other team does a challenge maybe not so dangerous' date=' they get a yellow as well to make it look like the ref is being impartial. The Brazil over 1.5 yellows at 1.83 at bet365 may be safer option in my opinon[/quote'] Off the top of my head, I think that might be a better bet
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