Major League Baseball Outright Bets

[danj2202]

Mid Season now we have an idea of what is what and there is a little bit of value to be had I think 1 pts Los Angeles Angels to win World Series 17.00 BetVictor 1 pts Los Angeles Angels to win American League 9.00 William Hill Looking at the bare numbers the Oakland Athletics appear to be the best team in MLB as they have comfortably the best run differential in baseball being propelled by having scored the most runs. A look deeper at a few of the metric stats suggest that the Athletics have been fortunate at times and therefore are a little lucky to have scored as many runs as they have, their pitching appears to also be regressing to the mean a little bit - the other team right up there in the metrics I was looking at were Seattle also in the AL West. The Angels who currently sit between the two teams and sit just 3.5 games behind the Athletics despite their injury problems in the first half and a few under performing stars sit middle of the pack suggesting that their current position is far more "real" than that of the Athletics in the division. Arguably the strongest team in the West will onlt need to be better than the Tigers who have to get Verlander right before you can really consider them for postseason glory. Considering that The Angels have arguably the best player in baseball Mike Trout, a solid lineup around him and pitchers who when on their game are as competitive a front 3/4 as there is around, and that they have the money and likely desire to make a trade to add to their roster at the deadline at the end of the month these prices look larger than necessary and from my viewpoint make them the value in the American League.

[danj2202]

Re: Major League Baseball Outright Bets 1 pts Washington Nationals to win World Series 13.00 Paddy Power 2 pts Washington Nationals to win National League 6.50 Paddy Power My passion for this pick is documented well on the other thread, I think the Nationals are the best team in the National League and I dont think its all that close. Being able to use Strasburg, Zimmermann, Fister and Gonzalez as a four in the playoffs will be formidable, they have had a lot of key pieces such as Gonzalez and Bryce Harper miss extended time in the first half of the season and they remain a single game back of the Braves as I type, they have allowed the least runs in the NL and have the best run differential, all in spite of their first half issues, they are now healthy and ready I believe to mount a second half run that should lead them to be the top seed in the NL playoffs, they are 4 games back of Milwaukee at the moment and have miles better pitching and more depth to their hitting lineup. They are in position to make any additions that they feel they need to a roster that is arguably the most complete in baseball so maybe will just add luxury items such as relief pitching depth. If this team remains healthy its hard for me to see them not making a deep run in October.

[danj2202]

Re: Major League Baseball Outright Bets 2 pts Pittsburgh Pirates to win National League Central 10.00 William Hill This price is too big and will shorten in a division that only the Cubs cannot win. As I type we have the slumping Brewers in first place, the Cardinals who have just lost Yadier Molina their inspirational catcher for the majority of the season remaining and have rotation injuries as well, if they make a deadline move and use their outfield depth to get pitching they are the danger and the franchise knows how to win. The Reds are also obliterated with varying injuries including Homer Bailey their best pitcher, Joey Votto their former MVP and other key parts, sat behind them just 3.5 games out of first are the team with the best current form and health in the Pirates, their outfield trio are ridiculously good they have solid pitching and made the playoffs after the longest drought in US pro sports last year. The schedule has been fairly kind recently but they are no 9/1 chance from here they are in the thick of the race with an outstanding chance

[danj2202]

Re: Major League Baseball Outright Bets 6pts Kansas City Royals to win AL Central 3.50 Skybet The Royals sit a half game up on the Tigers as i write but the Royals have flown from nowhere to lead and the schedule is incredibly kind to them over the next ten days and the have a great chance to open up a lead over Detroit who have a starting rotation in tatters with the injuries to Sanchez and Verlander as they have no depth to replace them and that could cost them crucial wins in the stretch run as well. This is a real real chance for the Royals to end the drought and bring playoff baseball back to Kauffmann stadium

[infinity]

Re: Major League Baseball Outright Bets Do you like the dodgers for the WS?

[danj2202]

Re: Major League Baseball Outright Bets Can they win the world series? Yes. Will they? I would want to see what happens with ryus MRI as if he goes down i am not convinced they have the pitching and their lineup has the potential to go cold and not score runs on occasion. They may win it but from a betting perspective I would bet washington first from the NL still.

[danj2202]

Re: Major League Baseball Outright Bets

6pts Kansas City Royals to win AL Central 3.50 Skybet:(

2 pts Pittsburgh Pirates to win National League Central 10.00 William Hill:(

Both fell a single game short and will play the wildcard play in this week. The outrights have each secured the top overall seed in their respective league. I like the Nationals still, due to injury I think I may well add a team to our AL portfolio tomorrow

[danj2202]

Re: Major League Baseball Outright Bets 2 pts Baltimore Orioles to win World Series 8.50 BetVictor I was looking at the portfolio from July and remain happy with the Nationals who I believe to be the best team in the National League and so long as the luck goes their way in the short window of the postseason then I would be hopeful they represent the NL in the World Series. In the American League, I believe, if healthy, that the Angels are the best team, but injuries to Garrett Richards and also Matt Shoemaker have left them with the real possibility of C.J.Wilson and Hector Santiago starting in the playoffs and it is hard to be enthusiastic about that, I will add that I am automatically dismissing Oakland and Kansas City as there is virtually no scenario I can see either of the wildcard teams advancing to the World Series, let alone win it! This leaves me with Detroit and Baltimore, who will meet in the divisional round, so it comes down to who do I like in that matchup? Baltimore. Both teams score plenty of runs, Baltimore led the league in home runs this season and Detroit's middle order of Miggy, V-Mart and JD Martinez is very very productive, so it comes to the pitching, which is probably where you think I am crazy siding with Baltimore. I think the series goes 5 games and I think the home team wins them all. Chris Tillman will start twice, I assume games 1 and probably 5 (if he starts game 4 more the better as we get two shots) and he pitched 8.1 innings of 1 run ball in his only start against the Tigers this season, now while it is dangerous to react to small sample sizes, but he is 6-1 2.33 post all star break. Wei Yin Chen will be next up and he is 7-3 post all star break behind a 2.76 ERA, they will be opposed by Max Scherzer you would assume, and he is much better at home (11-1 2.68) than he is on the road (7-4 3.49), and while not facing Baltimore this year, I would side with The Orioles in that game 1 matchup. If David Price goes in game 2, he is 0-1 5.40 his only start against the Orioles this year, and has struggled for any level of consistency since being traded to Detroit by the Rays and Chen has the edge putting Baltimore up 2-0. I am unsure who pitches games 3 and 4 from Gausman Norris and Gonzalez (likely Norris but all three have struggled against the Tigers), Porcello will likely win his matchup, but its difficult to know which Justin Verlander will show up for Detroit in his start. Should Detroit win both at home, then we will return to Baltimore for a game 1 rematch and I take Tillman at home again. I also took a look at the numbers of the Baltimore pitchers numbers against the Angels, the only opponent I realistically see them playing and the numbers are favourable, I think Baltimore, with things going right in the ALDS, in a close matchup with Detroit have every chance of advancing to the "Fall Classic" through L.A. Playoff series are so short, with every mistake magnified that it can be incredibly hard to predict what will happen, but I am happy with these three teams in the books, lets enjoy some intense playoff series with some nice value on Washington and the Angels in our back pockets

[Kingmoses]

Re: Major League Baseball Outright Bets Excellent write up as always Dan. :ok

[danj2202]

Re: Major League Baseball Outright Bets NLDS St Louis Cardinals v Los Angeles Dodgers 3 pts Los Angeles Dodgers to win the series 3-1 4.40 Ladbrokes 6 pts Los Angeles to win game 1 and win the series 1.83 Paddy Power I believe that the Dodgers will head to St Louis with a 2-0 lead, the pitching matchups at this stage are still a little up in the air as the status of Ryu is not confirmed for this series, I am anticipating game 1 - Kershaw v Wainwright game 2 - Greinke v Lynn game 3 - Ryu v Lackey game 4 - Haren v Miller (if necessary) game 5 - Kershaw v Wainwright (if necessary) if it lines up like that, it is impossible to oppose Kershaw, even if Wainwright is a fine pitcher with plenty of postseason experience in his own right. Lynn has awful numbers against the Dodgers (9.00 ERA in 2 starts this year) for game 2 and Greinke is solid at Chavez Ravine (10-2 2.55 ERA). I am inclined to lean towards Lackey in game three with the doubts over the health of Ryu and Lackey has been solid at Busch Stadium since being traded (2-0 in 5 starts 2.38 ERA). Game 4 is not a good matchup for St Louis if I have it right as Shelby Miller gabe up 6 runs in his only appearance against the Dodgers, but I genuinely dont see who is a viable alternative, Wacha? Masterson?, there is no matchup that I think St Louis has the edge so I dont see them getting back to Chavez Ravine for a game 5. ALDS Baltimore Orioles v Detroit Tigers 3 pts Baltimore Orioles to win 3-2 5.00 Ladbrokes I have basically reasoned this post in the Baltimore outright post above, so please see that one to save me the effort of repeating myself :ok

[danj2202]

Re: Major League Baseball Outright Bets ALDS Los Angeles Angels v Kansas City Royals 3 pts Los Angeles Angels to win series 3-1 4.50 William Hill 2 pts Los Angeles Angels to win series 3-2 3.75 William Hill Its is somewhat tough to work out how the Royals will pitch this with the series starting tomorrow after extras in the wildcard last night. My best guess is we see Game 1 - Guthrie v Weaver Game 2 - Duffy v Wilson Game 3 - Shields v Shoemaker Game 4 - Ventura v Santiago Game 5 - ? v Weaver This is yet another series that looks to have 2-0 to the home team through two games written all over it, both teams won their respective home series 2-1 between the teams. The Royals dont generally score a lot of runs and could struggle to keep up with an Angels team that has had an excellent second half. Weaver against Guthrie, my presumed game one starter is a mismatch and is the price of playing the wildcard as Shields would have given them a chance. I find it hard to trust C.J. Wilson but against Danny Duffy who gave up 5 runs in his only appearance against Los Angeles I will back Wilsons extensive playoff experience. That will likely bring Shields back for game 3 and as I expect Matt Shoemaker and his 10.00 ERA in 2 starts against the Royals to start, I think the Royals avoid the sweep. I then have Santiago v Ventura as game 4 and on the basis of the scoreless outing against Kansas City and that I believe the Angels have superior talent I give them the edge in that matchup also. I could have the order wrong of course, I suspect if I do that I have Duffy and Ventura the wrong way round, I went this way due to Ventura pitching in relief last night. As a cover, as there is a possibility that Ventura could beat C.J.Wilson I will play 3-2 Angels as well.

[danj2202]

Re: Major League Baseball Outright Bets NLDS Washington Nationals v San Francisco Giants 3 pts Washington Nationals to win 3-0 5.00 Bet365 3 pts Series to end in Game 5 2.40 Bet365 The key to this series is the very first game with Stephen Strasburg facing Jake Peavy in Washington, that really is a matchup that I cannot make my mind up and have no clear opinion, if Washington win then I expect Jordan Zimmerman to defeat Tim Hudson (0-4 8.72 ERA in September) in game 2, the game 3 starter is Madison Bumgarner, but this really is a fairly open match with Doug Fister in a matchup that again I cannot separate them, if it gets to game 4 the Giants will again be on the short end of the pitching matchup (assuming they dont pitch Peavy on short rest, which is ill advised in my opinion) leading us back to a likely game 1 repeat in game 5 if necessary. Cutting a long story short I think the Nationals who are a more efficient team offensively if they win the first game could dominate and end this series quick, if they lose, I expect a game 5 and again I couldnt pick the winner, those are the two bets, game one tomorrow will be very interesting for me!!.

[danj2202]

Re: Major League Baseball Outright Bets

1 pts Los Angeles Angels to win World Series 17.00 BetVictor:( 1 pts Los Angeles Angels to win American League 9.00 William Hill:(

1 pts Washington Nationals to win World Series 13.00 Paddy Power:( 2 pts Washington Nationals to win National League 6.50 Paddy Power:(

2 pts Pittsburgh Pirates to win National League Central 10.00 William Hill:(

6pts Kansas City Royals to win AL Central 3.50 Skybet:(

3 pts Los Angeles Dodgers to win the series 3-1 4.40 Ladbrokes:( 6 pts Los Angeles to win game 1 and win the series 1.83 Paddy Power:( 3 pts Baltimore Orioles to win 3-2 5.00 Ladbrokes:(

3 pts Los Angeles Angels to win series 3-1 4.50 William Hill:( 2 pts Los Angeles Angels to win series 3-2 3.75 William Hill:(

3 pts Washington Nationals to win 3-0 5.00 Bet365:( 3 pts Series to end in Game 5 2.40 Bet365:(

Well, this thread has taken something of a turn for the worst after the divisional series, main value on Washington and the Angels off on holiday now, leaving us with just the Orioles alive (but now favourite in most places), but that alone ownt be enough to get us out the sh*t and into profit!! 0-13 total staked 36 pts profit -36 pts

[danj2202]

Re: Major League Baseball Outright Bets ALCS Baltimore Orioles v Kansas City Royals 2 pts Baltimore Orioles to win 4-0 12.00 bet365 8 pts Baltimore Orioles (-1.5 games) 2.50 Paddy Power 3 pts Kansas City to win Game One and LOSE the series 5.00 Paddy Power This is a really intriguing matchup and one that nobody would have predicted at seasons end, the two teams play excellent defense in the field, Kansas City would have the edge in that department largely due to various injuries that the Orioles have suffered during the season to players like Wieters and Machado. The Royals play small ball and will try to bunt and steal and manufacture runs, but the Orioles are one of the hardest teams to steal bases on even without their all star catcher Wieters. The one way to overcome defense of the highest quality is to take them out of the equation, hit the ball out of the park, Baltimore led the American League in home runs this year, the Royals were last and that is the main advantage I see in this matchup, I have been waiting for as much pitching as possible to be announced but Baltimore are keeping quiet it appears, the pitching will likely shake out as follows: Game 1 - Tillman v Shields - both top draw, there is a chance that Kansas City can get off to a flier on the road with their main man on the hill, "Big Game" James has won both starts against Baltimore this year including one at Camden Yards - Chris Tillman threw a complete game shutout in his only appearance against the Royals this year, the ballpark will be rocking and I will side slightly with Tillman and Baltimore but cover with the game/series double just in case Game 2 - Chen v Ventura - It is hard to pick any holes in the resume of either pitcher here, but Chen has a slight edge . Ventura pitched a good game against Los Angeles in the Divisional round and pitched 8 shutout innings in Baltimore his only appearance there while going 1-1 against Baltimore this season (1.26 ERA). Wei Yin Chen didnt lose in either start against the Royals this season with a 2.19 ERA and I will forgive him for a poor performance against Detroit in round one (Ventura proved you can bounce back after his wildcard performance) as it would appear a pitcher who went 8-2 at home this season is unlikely to go back to back poor starts, and this lineup holds a lot less to fear than Detroits - there will be no back to back home runs by the Royals (watch that come back and bite me on the ass :lol) Game 3 - Norris v Vargas - Bud Norris took the hard luck loss in his only appearance against the Royals this year allowing a single run over 7.1 innings while the offense put up a zero, I dont think that will happen assuming Jason Vargas starts here, he was more effective on the road than at home this year where he had a 4.53 ERA at Kauffman Stadium, his September record of 1-3 6.57 ERA also leaves plenty to be desired despite a good performance as a game 1 starter on the road against Los Angeles. Game 4 - Gonzalez v Guthrie - It is difficult to be particularly confident in Miguel Gonzalez, but if i have this series right then the wind may have been blown from the sails of the Royals if Baltimore lead 3-0, Guthrie has not been particularly effective anywhere with a 4.13 ERA on the year, in 2 appearances against the Orioles he is 0-1 3.60 ERA, he has been better since the all star break, but isnt really what you would hope to be sending to the mound in what I predict is an elimination game against a team that has just beaten the last three AL Cy Young award winners in consecutive games. Miguel Gonzalez was also a vastly different pitcher after the all star break - 4.04 ERA before and 2.19 after, he faced the Royals just once, losing the game and allowing 3 runs, that was in April before he figured things out. Should it go to game 5 I would suspect James Shields may beat Tillman in Kauffman, but would be surprised if they got past Wei Yin Chen a second time to get to game 7. I will be surprised if the staking plan on this series is unprofitable NLCS St Louis Cardinals v San Francisco Giants 2 pts San Francisco Giants to win 4-0 15.00 bet365 2 pts San Francisco Giants to win 4-1 7.50 Ladbrokes 8 pts San Francisco Giants to win Game 1 and WIN the series 3.30 Paddy Power To the naked eye, this series, between the last four NL champions, looks close, I am not sure it is. Game 1 - Wainwright v Bumgarner - Even if the rumours that Adam Wainwright is not in perfect health, and the way he has pitched post all star break and in his only postseason appearance so far it seems hard to argue with that notion, he doesnt have good numbers against the Giants, he is 1-1 in 2 starts with a 5.25 ERA this season - his highest against any team. Madison Bumgarner is also an ace, went 1-1 3.00 against ST Louis this year, including a 7 inning shutout at Busch - Bumgarner has been consistently better on the road this season and there is every reason to believe these Giants will get off to a flier behind another lights out performance in this series opener after a shutout in the wildcard game and 2 ER over 7 against the Dodgers in round one. Game 2 - Peavy v Lynn - Peavy hasnt pitched St Louis this season, but looked pretty good against the Dodgers and looks a different pitcher out of Boston - his post all star break ERA a whole 2 runs lower than the early part of the year. A repeat of Lance Lynn's 0-1 10.80 ERA stat line against San Francisco this season in his only start (at home) and the Cardinals will be heading out West in a big hole! Game 3 - Hudson v Lackey - Lackey appeared much more comfortable at home after being traded to St Louis with a 2.38 ERA at Busch Stadium and a 2-0 record in 5 starts despite an ERA approaching 4.50 for August and September. Tim Hudson will either pitch well or he will pitch badly, your guess is a good as mine!!!, he did however pitch well against the Nats this week and recorded 7 shutout innings in his only appearance against St Louis this season, so I give the Giants the edge here and suddenly things look grim for the Cardinals - who granted never know when they are dead. Game 4 - Vogelsong v Miller - Ryan Vogelsong is likely in his final season in baseball, certainly it will be his last in San Francisco and he pitched pretty well on a short leash in the Game 4 series winner against Washington and the same scenario will likely unfold here against a Cardinals team that he is 0-1 4.05 ERA in his 2 starts against this year. Shelby Miller hasnt faced the Giants this season - decent numbers last year against them but if the series doesnt end here, and at home it will be intimidating with all the Bay Area residents waving their brooms if I am correct, the young pitcher may struggle, if he wins well I couldnt back Wainwright against Bumgarner with stolen money in game 5 so I struggle to see the series getting to 6 games. I will say I dont appear to have a particularly good feel for either of these teams but the value is in the Giants, who, not for the first time have resurrected themselves. and just for fun ?1 pts double Baltimore 4-0 & San Francisco 4-0 208.00 betway

[danj2202]

Re: Major League Baseball Outright Bets

2 pts Baltimore Orioles to win World Series 8.50 BetVictor:(

ALCS Baltimore Orioles v Kansas City Royals 2 pts Baltimore Orioles to win 4-0 12.00 bet365:( 8 pts Baltimore Orioles (-1.5 games) 2.50 Paddy Power:( 3 pts Kansas City to win Game One and LOSE the series 5.00 Paddy Power:( NLCS St Louis Cardinals v San Francisco Giants 2 pts San Francisco Giants to win 4-0 15.00 bet365:( 2 pts San Francisco Giants to win 4-1 7.50 Ladbrokes:) 8 pts San Francisco Giants to win Game 1 and WIN the series 3.30 Paddy Power:) ?1 pts double Baltimore 4-0 & San Francisco 4-0 208.00 betway:(

2-19 total staked 64 pts Total returns 41.40 profit -22.60 pts

[danj2202]

Re: Major League Baseball Outright Bets World Series Kansas City Royals v San Francisco Giants

I will add that I am automatically dismissing Oakland and Kansas City as there is virtually no scenario I can see either of the wildcard teams advancing to the World Series' date=' let alone win it! [/quote'] and with that 4 pts Kansas City Royals (-1.5 games) to win World Series 2.62 Paddy Power 1 pts James Shields to be World Series MVP 15.00 BetVictor 1 pts Mike Moustakas to be World Series MVP 21.00 Coral These two teams met for a series as recently as August. Kansas City swept the Giants in 3 games. The Royals have yet to lose this postseason, having swept the Orioles they have had a layoff which is usually to the detriment of the team with the break, but they have been off only one day longer than the Giants who beat St Louis in five games. Kansas City shorten games with their outstanding relief pitching, if you can get through six and pass the ball to Herrera, Davis and Holland then its as good as finished, just like the Yankees used to when they handed the ball to Mariano. These are not the best two teams in baseball, but they are what we have. San Francisco defy logic but continue to win - they come into this looking to win the World Series in an even year for the third consecutive time having won in 2010 and 2012, led by Buster Posey and Hunter Pence and the soon to be departing Pablo Sandoval they have a lineup that can hit when they are hot but can also go cold in a hurry. The Giants pitch, that is their advantage, the top of the rotation threesome of Bungarner, Peavy and Hudson is better than what the Royals can do, but there is more pressure as the relief pitching is not as solid and both Bumgarner and Hudson were defeated in the August series. Game 1 Shields v Bumgarner - both have pitched in World Series before, but Kauffman Stadium will be rocking like its 1985 - the last year the Royals were in the post season and Shields has been solid enough in the playoffs - good enough to get the job done, he threw his only shutout of the season against the Giants in that August series so we know he can get the Giants out, Bumgarner lost in that series despite a reasonable 8 innings pitched, I think the occasion and the emotion will fire up the Royals and their record win streak to start a postseason will continue Game 2 Ventura v Peavy - The rookie against the seasoned veteran with World Series experience (not inspiring lasting only 4 innings whilst losing to St Louis for Boston last year but experience) I would worry that the occasion could get to Ventura and Peavy has been outstanding in the playoffs and the last month of the regular season, every chance this could get tied up going to the left coast. Game 3 Hudson v ???? Game 4 Vogelsong v ????? - the Royals will pitch Guthrie and Vargas in whatever order they deem fit. Jason Vargas has a considerably lower ERA on the road this season of 2.73 (over 4.50 at home) and pitched a solid 5 innings of 2 run ball against the Giants in the previously mentioned August series. As we dont know the way Ned Yost is going to pitch this, I would throw Vargas at Hudson, who gave up 3 runs in 6 innings in August against Kansas City and was horrible in September with an 8+ ERA despite rebounding reasonably well and going 2-0 in the playoffs so far. I would think that would make both these matches a tossup on starters as I have little confidence in either Guthrie or Vogelsong, but again would side with whichever pitcher you tell me only needs to pitch 5 innings The worst case scenario for the Royals that I see through the first 4 games is 2-2 which means we go back to the top of the rotation and anything could happen from there, I have a hunch that it will be 3-1 to the Royals though and at that stage I have to think it will be very difficult for San Francisco to come back. As for MVP, the big game starting pitcher who gets the chance to win twice is always a decent bet and James Shields has that chance in this series, Mike Moustakas the Royals third baseman is the sort of story that can get a lot of attention after his demotion to the minor leagues for a short time to work on his swing earlier this season, he has ht some timely home runs in the playoffs so am willing to chance him over the shorter Eric Hosmer and Alex Gordon. May play a couple of other bets but to be honest, this has been a head scratcher of an October and I wouldnt be surprised to have this completely wrong The Royals and the Giants..........who knew?????

[danj2202]

Re: Major League Baseball Outright Bets

4 pts Kansas City Royals (-1.5 games) to win World Series 2.62 Paddy Power:( 1 pts James Shields to be World Series MVP 15.00 BetVictor:( 1 pts Mike Moustakas to be World Series MVP 21.00 Coral:(

Not quite as successful as the match betting thread but still profitable for the season overall!! 2-22 total staked 70 pts total returns 41.40 pts profit -28.60 pts see ya next season!!!