Quarter-Final - France v Germany > Friday July 4th

[Aidymac]

[TABLE=class: couponTable, width: 617]

[TR=class: row0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]France v Germany (17:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.45[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.53 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[MPLouis]

Re: Quarter-Final - France v Germany > Friday July 4th France shots stats are better than Germany's in this tournament. And France have looked a bit more convincing to me. I am happy to back them at the longer odds here. France or Draw 1.67 Coral Stake: 5 points

[Indred_Cold]

Re: Quarter-Final - France v Germany > Friday July 4th A fascinating match-up between two European powerhouses coming up in this quarter final. I was trying to remember the last time I saw these two sides meet and I can't recall anything of note other than a friendly a few years back. They really don't have a lot of history in big competitions or in qualifiers, at least not in the last 20 years or so. Germany is a very odd team these days. I can't quite put my finger on it, maybe it's the constant tinkering with the team and playing people out of position that irks me, or the lack of a traditional centre-forward. When you look at their team sheet it looks very strong indeed, but I feel that they are somehow fundamentally flawed and that they will once again come up short in their search for the next World Cup success. Watching them stroll around and go through the motions against Algeria was galling really. It's like they thought they just needed to show up to advance. Let's just say it was an underwhelming performance. France have their weaknesses also. After topping their group impressively enough, they were less than stellar against Nigeria. Giroud stank the place out again and is a red card waiting to happen. I really hope we see Remy against the germans. Admitedly, knock out games are often not very pretty and the result is all that matters. They are defensively very solid and aside from relaxing against the swiss at 5-0 up they kept everyone else at bay. In games like this margins are very small and if you analyzed both squads player by player there would be very little to separate the teams. It's about whose footballing gods are currently present in Brazil and I'm leaning ever so slightly towards France. I think a lack of a striker in the Klinsmann or even Mario Gomez mould will cost the germans their place in the semi final. France AH 0.0 @ 2.15 5pts and half time/full time draw/france @ 6.50 2pts

[Hume]

Re: Quarter-Final - France v Germany > Friday July 4th I thought the France v Nigeria game was going to be a draw, but I also thought if Vicent Enyeama was tested he would be found wanting. He was and France went through. I don't think that'll happen here. I believe this game will end in a draw over the 90 minutes.

[Fedar]

Re: Quarter-Final - France v Germany > Friday July 4th I think that no serious betting can be done on this game until the line-ups are released. Crucial information is whether Lowe will be stubborn with his tiki-taka fetish and will once again insist on putting players off their natural positions and messing up the whole line-up. Germany might be into a huge trouble if they decide to play high defense line (such a crucial element of tiki-taka). The passing level of the back 4 against Algeria was of very low quality and Algerian attackers could steal the ball dangerously on numerous occasions. And the speed of Mertesacker is substandard, so no manager with at least basic tactical wisdom will ever play high line with Mertesacker in it. France is simply terminal on the break as they showed against the Swiss, when they were given so much space to explore. I wouldn't be surprised if we see something like Bayern-Real in this match, because we see a team, which is perfectly build to counter-attack (France), against a side which is clumsily trying to copy-cat tiki-taka, but lacking the assets to do so (Germany): technical defense line with top passing skills, high pressing, done by all the players (Ozil is just an observer when it comes to pressing and running), Messi..... If I was Lowe, I would have sticked to the classic Germany and Bayern (under Heynkess and Van Gaal) 4-2-3-1 with Kloze up-front, backed up Ozil or Gotze as "light attacker", Muller and Schurrle on the wings, and Schweini-Kedira as centre midfield pair. But I doubt the German manager will change his ways and probably we gonna see the same boring and vulnerable Germany. As to France, the line-up is clear. I don't think their manager will be so stupid to play the wood Giroud, after seeing his comical performance, and after Griezman showed his top skills. They should play with Valbuena and Griezman on the wings, and Benzema up-front - all of them fast players, who love to break. Add to this a very aggressive and pressing midfield trio of Pogba, Matuidi and Cabaye, and Germany might be indeed very vulnerable to losing the ball and being hit on the break. I will still wait for line-ups and formations, but if Germany don't change their ways, I am with France here.

[Aidymac]

Re: Quarter-Final - France v Germany > Friday July 4th Fedar Hummels is back for the France game, he will make an enormous difference at the back for Germany.. I do agree that playing the best right back on the planet in central midfield is a complete joke though.. Schurrle is far more effective as a sub so I don't think he will start and Klose doesn't have the legs for a full game either.

[Js90]

Re: Quarter-Final - France v Germany > Friday July 4th Been a bit disappointed in Germany up till now it just feels like there missing something. France on the other hand look good and going forward it looks like they got goals in them from many parts of the team. Could go either way but happy to back France at the price given. France to qualify @ 5/4

[HastGill1]

Re: Quarter-Final - France v Germany > Friday July 4th Hummels has suffered a 'negative setback' and is far from certain to play. Further to that 7 of the Germany squad have picked up flu like symptons.."As a result, it's too early to make any final decisions about the line-up," Loew said today.

[kevshat]

Re: Quarter-Final - France v Germany > Friday July 4th 4pts France to qualify 5/4 Coral After three tough group matches in the north the last thing Germany needed in the last 16 was extra time and the recovery time for this match hasn’t been a lot. France have dipped alarmingly in this tournament but we’re getting to the stage where it could become a battle of the fresher side and in what is likely to be hot conditions here the French should be favoured for that reason. Algeria exposed this German backline, as did Ghana. Neither had the quality to make it pay but France do and they can be the first side into the semi finals. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/france-vs-germany-betting-les-bleus-can-make-the-last-four

[Fedar]

Re: Quarter-Final - France v Germany > Friday July 4th http://whitehouseaddress.blogspot.com/2014/07/five-reasons-why-germany-wont-beat.html A very interesting article about Lowe and the German team. I agree with everything written.

[AARON9890]

Re: Quarter-Final - France v Germany > Friday July 4th Really fancy France to qualify here. Germany impressed at the start but since then their performances have become a little lack luster. France on the other hand have played great, fast paced, fast tempo football throughout the tournament. I saw them play in their friendly against Jamaica before the WC began and was really impressed by them, winning 8-0 in the end. They are unbeaten in last 9 matches so everything is telling me to back them to win or qualify. While this is the case there is considerable doubt in my mind, mainly due to the fact that the WC has been extremely unpredictable so far. Also, Germany haven't been beaten in a match (including extra time and penalties) in over a year,15 games to be precise. One thing i do know is both teams defences are solid and i believe that there will be little goals in this match (2 at the most) Best Bets in my opinion; Under 2.5 Goals - 4/7 Both teams to score - No - 8/11 Draw - 9/4 Correct Score prediction - 0-0 or 1-0 (France) Some Stats that may interest you all from oddschecker France have lost only one of their 10 games played on Brazilian soil (W6 D3) On the last five occasions that France have progressed past round 1 in the World Cup, they have reached the semi-final stage (1958, 1982, 1986, 1998 and 2006)

[slizorn]

Re: Quarter-Final - France v Germany > Friday July 4th Finally have some down time to post my picks albeit this early on in the day. One market that has interested me over the last few days is the shots on and off target. The bookmaker I will be looking to bet with is Unibet, as their market include Extra Time statistics and go off the Fifa website (not sure about other bookmarkers). One thing I have noticed is that there appears to be an extra radius added around the goalposts that also contributes to shots on target statistics (not sure if this is the norm, just noticed it). I would very much be interested in finding out what that extra radius around the goalpost exactly is. But the following picture from Fifa.com sort of shows what I mean. [ATTACH]6126[/ATTACH] Anyway onto the statistics for shots on and off target from Fifa.com. I've put it in a table for ease of reading. Note the Germany vs Algeria's game had extra time statistics included, hence the shots on target number is so skewed. [ATTACH]6128[/ATTACH] The shots off target line has been set at 11.5 on Unibet. France average 7.25 shots off target per game while their min and max in a game thus far are 6 and 10 respectively. Germany average 5 shots off target per game while their min and max in a game thus far are 4 and 7 respectively. What I have noticed over the last few games is that the shots off target line is set pretty well and usually ends up one or two above or below the line. So unless someone can convince me otherwise, I think the market to go after is the shots on target. The shots on target line has been set at 17.5 on Unibet France average 12 shots on target per game while their min and max in a game thus far are 9 and 16 respectively. Germany average 8 shots on target in their first 3 games (4th game was extra time and skewed) and their min and max in those 3 games are 6 and 9 respectively. France concedes 5.75 shots on target on average whereas Germany concedes 6.67 shots on target (3 games). On average, France's games have 17.75 shots on target whereas Germany's 1st 3 games have 14.67 shots on target. Given the additional radius around the goalpost, it is clear to see that most shots tend to end up being on target rather than off. Going off the averages, I think we should see about 20 shots on target in this game, with the range expected between 15 and 24. Considering that line I think there is value in backing the following bet and if it does end up going to extra-time, there is an even better chance of the bet landing: 10pts Over 17.5 shots on target (including extra time and based on stats on Fifa.com) @ 1.80 Unibet Note: the line for the France's and Germany's shots on target have been set at 8.5 @ 1.50 and 7.5 @ 1.60 Unibet. This kind of implies that the bookmaker expects 9 shots on target from France and 8 from Germany at the very minimum (i.e. we should see at least 17 shots on target). P.S. Haven't got the foggiest clue how to remove that extra attachment :(

[toaster33]

Re: Quarter-Final - France v Germany > Friday July 4th I bet on half time draw between France and Nigeria after seeing France's line up (with Giroud instead of Griezmann) and I'm reckoning on more of the same tactically from France. I suspect the hot temperatures will lead to us seeing the same starting X1 for France who might want to hold back Griezmann's pace and energy for later in the game keeping it tight early on. As for Germany I thought they looked very shaky early on against Algeria. I think they expected the game to start a bit more sedately but Algeria really went for it and surprised them. This time Germany could get what they want with both teams looking to get a read on each other in the first half. With all that in mind I think the HT correct score 0-0 (2.1 Betfair) is a decent shot and slightly better odds than the HT draw.

[TotoSchillaci]

Re: Quarter-Final - France v Germany > Friday July 4th Sakho no good for France. Mertesacker no good for Germans. Both weak spots in CB

[modog]

Re: Quarter-Final - France v Germany > Friday July 4th Hummels is going to play. Also Löw hinted that Lahm is going to play as defender on the right wing. That will make a huge difference. I think bookies will make a fortune with all the money on France tonight.

[Herr Wolf]

Re: Quarter-Final - France v Germany > Friday July 4th Don't forget that Germany always play the semifinals of these tournaments...they were runner ups in 2002, then the 3rd placed in 2006, and then the 3rd placed in 2010 as well. Not to mention they were in the semis in the latest Europian as well. So Germany is a team that always go far in World Cups,they play always 7 games although they still have to win that trophy. I bilieve that the germans will enter into the semis once again,they can crush a France team that unlike Algeria,will play more offensive minded and we all know that playing that way against the germans is a suicide...ask Portugal! So my bets will be Germany to win at odds 2.6 and a small stake Germany/Germany ht-ft

[JoeyB]

Re: Quarter-Final - France v Germany > Friday July 4th Okay I might leave this match alone, or a small bet, most likely on under 2.5 goals, or France +.5 But I will stick a quid on France 2-0. I had a dream last night where I rolled over and the TV was on showing France v Germany, it was either 65 or 85 mins into the game, and the score was 2-0, pretty sure it was in the French's favor.

[AARON9890]

Re: Quarter-Final - France v Germany > Friday July 4th

Sakho no good for France. Mertesacker no good for Germans. Both weak spots in CB

Apparently Sakho is injured (Muscle Thigh Strain)

[JuMeSyn]

Re: Quarter-Final - France v Germany > Friday July 4th Just by reading this topic I can clearly see why I chose this game to be a NO BET :)

[1907zico]

Re: Quarter-Final - France v Germany > Friday July 4th Germany vs France Quarter Finals First of all thank you all for the great feedback that I received after my last analysis in the USA vs Germany game. It is quite some work to put my thoughts and way of thinking about the games into words, but I am glad that some people enjoy it. In August I hope to publish my website which will contain paid services as well as regular free posts like the one I posted few days ago. Enough said about myself, let me write about the game which everyone in my home town is really looking forward and I am sure most parts of Germany will be excited about the game. In this game we have two teams that started the tournament with opposite expectations. While there was little to no hopes for France to come close to the title, everyone expects Germany to finally win a title with this talented and experienced squad. We live in a moody kind of world and it is interesting how football is reflecting our global changes (quicker, faster, better, more entertaining). France did impress with their group stage performances and did fairly okay against Nigeria raising expectations in the country and bringing a positive group feeling in the squad. In comparison, ratings about Germany are all critical. Players like Thomas Müller complain that their recent World Cup success has not been valued enough by public, while the public states that the way Germany played in certain games was just not allowing seeing the performances as positive, although the results were. There is no black or white in this discussion which allows a lot of people to state different opinions. I personally like to see things from a broad perspective. Players like Khedira, Klose, Schweinsteiger came into the tournament after injuries. Götze had a season with regular small injuries, missing pre-season work out as well. A potential game changer like Özil came into the tournament out of form. Now, we can blame Löw for his team selection (why Klose, when u can get a fit Kiessling for example). But we can also see that he believes in those players and also believes that they will gradually improve from game to game throughout the tournament. The discussion about Lahm on defensive midfield or right back position is pure bullshit. The reason why Löw is doing this is simply lying in the fact that Schweinsteiger and Khedira cannot start a game together to play 90-120 minutes. We are missing both Benders on DMID because of injuries as well and I do not want to see how people would blame Löw to start Kramer on this position. As a result a combination of Lahm/Schweini or Lahm/Khedira is logical. You never want to run in the situation that Schweini+Khedira get tired and you have to change your whole DMID during the game. I understand people who blame Löw to not choose playing Großkreutz or Durm instead of Mustafi (who are no longer an option because of injury). Fair point! In the final training today Großkreutz was tested on the right back position. Many people also ask for Schürrle to start, but I think we want to win the tournament and winning a game means leading the game when the whistle is blown for the last time! Both Schürrle and Podolski, even Klose are capable of giving Germany a huge boost from the bench against a possibly rather tired opponent. The recent games have shown that France is not looking for too much ball possession. Against Nigeria they were not dominating the game, whereas Germany was running more than 65% ball possession once again against Algeria. This trend is indicating that we could expect Germany to make the game and France defending with their intensive, collective work against the ball to seek for quick pace counter attacks via Valbuena, Matuidi, Pogba and maybe also Griezmann (who I think would be a better choice to Benzema). If this trend will transfer to reality in the game, I think Germany will quite struggle. Both Hummels and Mertesacker can get problems when we defend too high and lose the ball going forward. Thomas Müller was stating in an interview that he hopes that France will try to go forward more than Algeria so that Germany also finds some space to break when they win the ball in midfield. I think the likelihood of this happening is definitely higher against France than against Algeria. France, although not having too much ball possession, allowed Nigeria to break a few times. It never happened in a situation without balance in defense, but there was space which the likes of Özil, Götze and Müller could exploit. Tactical Summary: Overall, no matter how exactly the line ups are going to look like, I expect a game where Germany will have more ball possession than France, but ironically get most of their chances after France loses the ball when owning it. I expect the French team to exactly do the same. They will not concede too many chances when Germany is circulating the ball. We lack active left/right backs to be really dangerous when we circulate the ball against a defensive balanced team. I rather think that France will close the gaps clever and wait to the gain the ball back to go for their own dangerous breaks. If we expect Germany to hold the ball most of the times with ball possession resulting in a few dangerous chances, but the risk of France to counter attack risky, we have an indication for a tactical issue which a lot of people mention these days. Germany will have to be really careful and smart with the ball to avoid these situations. This will require that the passing quality of the midfield increases heavily compared to the last game! Betting verdict: Germany to win 2.75 (36.36%) Draw 3.20 (31.25%) France to win 2.81 (35.79%) The bookmakers expect a very close game and both teams are almost rated even. Having a look back at my tactical analysis, it is quite easy to spot why. Both coaches know about the relevant strengths of both teams. Small mistakes and efficiency in front of goal will decide the game today. I think both teams are far from acting perfect over 90 minutes, which given the conditions and pressure is normal. As a result, I expect this game to be really close with the draw over 90 minutes looking most appealing to me. If France tries to make the game most of the times, Germany will get a lot of space and will certainly score goals and at the same time Germany making their passing mistakes from the Algeria game will allow France to get big goal chances and make them score. The importance of the game speaks for a more careful approach by both teams, but this game can go nuts really quick and we may see a huge game with a lot of goal chances! My Score Tip: 2:2 (odds 15 at Tipico - equivalent to a likelyhood of 6,66%) Cheers

[Fedar]

Re: Quarter-Final - France v Germany > Friday July 4th Line-ups released: http://i60.tinypic.com/o51e04.jpg Germany getting back to their old ways: Kloze up-front, Lahm at the right back, Schweini-Khedira in the middle. Considering these fact and the risen odds on Germany, I think there is some value on them. Germany DNB @ 1.83 (bet365)

[Left4Dead]

Re: Quarter-Final - France v Germany > Friday July 4th Pretty sloppy game. Not very fun to watch at all, I guess that was expected though. Maybe I expected more because of the early goal. Congrats to Germany backers...

[salmonman]

Re: Quarter-Final - France v Germany > Friday July 4th Crap game, France were really disappointing and showed far too much respect to the germans.

[Aidymac]

Re: Quarter-Final - France v Germany > Friday July 4th Lahm right back, Hummels back, mert dropped, different Germany

[MPLouis]

Re: Quarter-Final - France v Germany > Friday July 4th

France shots stats are better than Germany's in this tournament. And France have looked a bit more convincing to me. I am happy to back them at the longer odds here. France or Draw 1.67 Coral Stake: 5 points

Result: France 0 Germany 1 Bet lost Stake: 5 points Return: nil Deserved win for Germany from what I saw, France were disappointing.

[slizorn]

Re: Quarter-Final - France v Germany > Friday July 4th

10pts Over 17.5 shots on target (including extra time and based on stats on Fifa.com) @ 1.80 Unibet

Finished 9-6 in favour of France. Tbh am pretty annoyed at both teams, Germans had something like one shot on target in the first half, they were happy to sit back and keep possession whereas there was no sense of urgency till the last 20 mins for the French. -10pts :/

[Fedar]

Re: Quarter-Final - France v Germany > Friday July 4th

Line-ups released: http://i60.tinypic.com/o51e04.jpg Germany getting back to their old ways: Kloze up-front, Lahm at the right back, Schweini-Khedira in the middle. Considering these fact and the risen odds on Germany, I think there is some value on them. Germany DNB @ 1.83 (bet365)

Indeed, Germany looked better in their "old clothes", instead of the tiki-taka experiment. The team had much more balance, although they didn't shine. World Cup 2014 Stats: 30 Bets, 20 Wins, 9 Losses, 1 Void + 8.58 Units (1 Unit per bet)