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Champions League First Qualifying Round > 1st July & 8th July

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Alexc

Alexc

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Re: Champions League First Qualifying Round > 1st July & 8th July :lol I like the BF forum. Not the place for serious punting, for the most part, but some of the stuff that goes on in there is hilarious. There's a thread on there with a bunch of guys that aren't the usual fantasists and they know their stuff and pick out a lot of good bets, watch the markets, find a lot of the dodgy stuff too, that's the part of the forum that is monitored, imo, anyway. They actually don't post on the thread anymore, they've set up a private chat with around forty of them.

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MPLouis

MPLouis

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Re: Champions League First Qualifying Round > 1st July & 8th July

It's a total no-brainer to bet on Florita not scoring' date=' everything has been said regarding the first game. I was a bit surprised to see Levadia in the first qualifying round anyway but they should take them apart fairly easily in the return leg, I can't see them winning by less than 2-0 or 3-0. Handicap odds too low though imo, would much rather take them to win to nil.[/quote'] I've got a feeling it could be around 2-0 or 3-0. The biggest danger to a Levadia clean sheet is probably a high score by them. If they are winning say 5-0, they might well switch off and concede late on - I've noticed that quite often happens, even with total outsiders. (I usually prefer to 'lay off' clean sheet bets late in the game, when you can often get odds of, say, 7.0 or above for the outsiders to score).
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Fedar

Fedar

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Re: Champions League First Qualifying Round > 1st July & 8th July HB - Lincoln Red Imps First match finished 1:1 and now the Gibraltaran debutants are set to travel to the Faroe Islands for the return leg. It is hard to judge Gibraltaran teams as there's very little basis for comparison. They certainly showed they are above San Marino levels, but probably not better than Andorrans (and certainly below Malta and Luxemburg). I believe there might be value on HB handicaps. Faroe teams in general and HB in particular are strong at home. For instance, in their last two CL campaigns, HB defeated Malmo with 1-0 and drew 0-0 with Red Bull Salzburg. The first leg in Gibraltar seems to have been equal in terms of performance, but despite the home advantage, Lincoln also had the benefit to play in very hot conditions, which must have troubled the visitors. Weather in Torshavn will be entirely different tomorrow: around 10 degrees and light rain. In similar circumstances, last year Faroe champions Streymur drew in Andorra - 2:2, but then crushed their opponents at home with 5:1. Of course, we speak for different teams, but probably it is a proof of the very solid home advantage of Faroe teams against other minnows. It is an interesting fact that Gibraltar national team played Faroe in Gibraltar several months ago and lost in Gibraltar with 1-4. It is interesting mainly because there are a number of players from HB and Lincoln in both national teams. Even one of the goals was scored by HB topscorer Edmundson. This probably shows the real class difference between the two sides, which was probably mitigated in the heat of Gibraltar. Last but not least, Faroe league is under way, unlike the Gibraltar one which should suggest better fitness. Also, Gibraltar league seems to have been established very recently and they obviously had their first season now. They have played only 14 games for the whole tournament (Faroe league comprises of 27 games per team). HB-1.5 @ 1.98 (Marathon)

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HastGill1

HastGill1

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Re: Champions League First Qualifying Round > 1st July & 8th July

No' date=' can't imagine my opinion would sway the odds! :lol It's a total no-brainer to bet on Florita not scoring, everything has been said regarding the first game. I was a bit surprised to see Levadia in the first qualifying round anyway but they should take them apart fairly easily in the return leg, I can't see them winning by less than 2-0 or 3-0. Handicap odds too low though imo, would much rather take them to win to nil.[/quote'] Further to this, by means somewhat foul I have managed to get a new account with ladbrokes and placed a bet on both teams to score no at 1.85. These odds are just way too big, Levadia aren't world beaters but dominated the first leg against a side that created virtually nothing. I expect a controlled performance with few risks taken. As we have seen with sides from San Marino in the past they don't have the quality to string together moves in the final third and you can virtually be certain that any threat will come from set pieces. I just can't see these prices being available tomorrow. Both Teams to Score No - 1.85 - lads - 15 Points
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66 Better

66 Better

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Re: Champions League First Qualifying Round > 1st July & 8th July Just to add abit more insight into the BTTS NO bets on the Levadia game. Levadia currently have the longest clean sheet record running currently in Estonian League history. Their keeper has not conceded a goal in any competition since the 5th April 2014!!!! Crazy odds considering. Hammer it :)

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Requiem

Requiem

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Re: Champions League First Qualifying Round > 1st July & 8th July Hello, regarding the Levadia game, I, as most of you, is sharing the thought of free scoring Levadia tomorrow, but one thing bothers me tho. I have a feeling the La Fiorita is going to devour our investments. Why ? For no reason, I just got a feeling seeing that game on flashscore. Any advice on this ? Should I follow logic and common sense or "guts" ?

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MPLouis

MPLouis

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Re: Champions League First Qualifying Round > 1st July & 8th July

Hello' date=' regarding the Levadia game, I, as most of you, is sharing the thought of free scoring Levadia tomorrow, but one thing bothers me tho. I have a feeling the La Fiorita is going to devour our investments. Why ? For no reason, I just got a feeling seeing that game on flashscore. Any advice on this ? Should I follow logic and common sense or "guts" ?[/quote'] In this situation, the safest option is to keep your money :cigar
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Masturbinho

Masturbinho

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Re: Champions League First Qualifying Round > 1st July & 8th July http://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/season=2015/matches/round=2000544/match=2014132/prematch/preview/index.html#versatile+levadia+looking+ahead "Kristal, whose side currently trail FC Flora Tallinn by two points in the Estonian title race, knows that despite his attacking injuries, he can always rely on goalkeeper Roman Smishko. Never before had a keeper gone more than 1,000 minutes without conceding in an Estonian top-flight goal; Smishko is currently up to 1,166 after Saturday's 2-0 win at Paide Linnameeskond, not including his clean sheet in San Marino last week."

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MPLouis

MPLouis

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Re: Champions League First Qualifying Round > 1st July & 8th July

Here are the highlights from the Santa Coloma - Bantats Erevan match. The armenian side had just one real goal scoring chance in the match, immediately after conceding.
The impression I get from the UEFA report is that Santa Coloma dominated the first leg. The question is - can they go on and win the tie? Paddy Power are only quoting 2.25 for them to qualify. They do have the big advantage of not having conceded an away goal. If they could manage to score an away goal themselves today, Banants would have to score THREE.
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MPLouis

MPLouis

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Re: Champions League First Qualifying Round > 1st July & 8th July

There are some attractive-looking prices on Levadia keeping a clean sheet in their second leg at home to La Fiorita tomorrow. According to UEFA's site, they dominated the first leg in San Marino, and La Fiorita had 2 shots on target and 2 corners http://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/season=2015/matches/round=2000544/match=2014129/postmatch/report/index.html#levadia+strike+late Levadia v La Fiorita Both to Score NO 1.91 Ladbrokes Stake: 8 points
Result: Levadia 7 La Fiorita 0 Bet won :ok Stake: 8 points Return: 15.28 points Thanks to Rock n Rolla, I watched most of the game online - nervously. (Obviously in hindsight, handicap bets would have been much better value :)). Levadia were well on top throughout, their forwards cutting through the La Fiorita back line with ease. The Levadia goalkeeper didn't see much of the ball, but La Fiorita could easily have scored from free kicks. They had at least 3 dangerous free kicks, one of which went just past the post, and at least two others were sent high into the box with a group of Fiorita players running in - one of those could easily have been bundled in. Fortunately it wasn't. Thanks again to Rock n Rolla for the live stream link.
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HastGill1

HastGill1

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Re: Champions League First Qualifying Round > 1st July & 8th July

Further to this, by means somewhat foul I have managed to get a new account with ladbrokes and placed a bet on both teams to score no at 1.85. These odds are just way too big, Levadia aren't world beaters but dominated the first leg against a side that created virtually nothing. I expect a controlled performance with few risks taken. As we have seen with sides from San Marino in the past they don't have the quality to string together moves in the final third and you can virtually be certain that any threat will come from set pieces. I just can't see these prices being available tomorrow. Both Teams to Score No - 1.85 - lads - 15 Points WIN
Seemed straightforward enough from what I have read although I couldn't watch the game. Special mention to Santa Coloma from Andorra who got through to the second round for the first time ever with their goalkeeper scoring the deciding goal in the 90th minute!
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Fedar

Fedar

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Re: Champions League First Qualifying Round > 1st July & 8th July

HB - Lincoln Red Imps HB-1.5 @ 1.98 (Marathon)
5:2 final result, bet won! The Faroe team scored three quick goals, but then probably underestimated the game and conceded two in the second half, then two more goals for the home side sealed the deal.
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bigmick

bigmick

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Re: Champions League First Qualifying Round > 1st July & 8th July

Further to this' date=' by means somewhat foul I have managed to get a new account with ladbrokes and placed a bet on both teams to score no at 1.85. [/quote'] Would be extreamley carefull if you try to withdraw. I was gubbed by Ladbrokes a couple of years ago. Then made a new account when they opened their exchange. I placed a bet on the sportsbook which won tried to withdraw and they voided the settled bet and also kept my stake even though the bet won and closed the account quoting the terms and conditions which are. "By opening an account with us and/or by using the Website you warrant that you: have not excluded yourself from gambling and neither we nor any other operator has excluded you from gambling" and "5.4. In the event of any of the other warranties set out in clause 5.1 or 5.2 proving to be false your stake will be forfeit and we shall not be obliged to pay any winnings which might otherwise have been payable in respect of the bet. We may also report the matter to the police and the appropriate regulatory authority." This is really terrible i think Its basically theft especially since it was them that sent me an E-mail offering me a free bet if I opened an account:(
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