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Last 16 - Colombia v Uruguay > Saturday June 28th


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Re: Last 16 - Colombia v Uruguay > Saturday June 28th

Up until now' date=' Colombia and Uruguay played 38 matches and the results were relatively similar:11 wins for Colombia, 18 for Uruguay, and 9 draws. It means there are no obvious favorites this time and both teams can win the match. So I predict that both teams score and Colombia wins[/quote'] Willy-Wonka.jpg
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Re: Last 16 - Colombia v Uruguay > Saturday June 28th 4pts Colombia to beat Uruguay 21/20 Coral Were Uruguay to have Suarez available then this price on Colombia would look very poor but a Suarez-less Uruguay are a different proposition entirely and I fancy Colombia to come through here now. Colombia have shown brilliant attacking flair in the tournament so far, the sort of flair that opens any side up and with the threat the other way being a lot less than it could have been Colombia can sit in a bit and pounce on a paceless Uruguay defence and book their quarter final spot in style. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/colombia-vs-uruguay-betting-colombia-can-take-advantage-of-suarez-s-absence

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Re: Last 16 - Colombia v Uruguay > Saturday June 28th First time poster, long time lurker. Some interesting points being made, Columbia have powered through what is a lreatively weak Group. Uruguay have grinded out two results after a shocker in the opening match. Trying to use Group games as a comparison, I see Greece set-up as possibly being simlar to a Suarez-less Uruguay and Columbia got a 3-0 victory...Uruguay got beaten (Suarez-less) against Costa Rica 3-1 and I see Columbia playing a similar style...so far things point to a Columbia victory. But, and it's a big but, I think the events of recent days will have brought about this "siege mentality" for the Uruguay squad - mentality that Mourinho/Ferguson etc successfully deployed in their teams...and I fully expect Uruguay to play deep, remove any space for Columbia and try nick a goal from a set-piece. I think unders @1.63 (888) is the bet. I'll also keep an eye in play as I think if Uruguay try to take the game to Columbia (unlikely), then Columbia will pick them off with ease.

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Re: Last 16 - Colombia v Uruguay > Saturday June 28th Colombia @ 2.10 (Coral) for a 0.4 stake Colombia Over 1.5 TG @ 2.38 (William Hill) for a 0.3 stake Even though Colombia winning is the prediction for me today, I do feel the hidden value is in Colombia TG. Colombia has been, with Chile and Costa Rica, the team that has impressed me the most in the group stage. Colombia is a very balanced team, with very few weaknesses. They seem very tough to beat, well organized, know how to defend, know how to attack. Then they have in-form players such as Cuadrado, James Rodriguez and Jackson Martinez. Falcão surely isn't being missed after! Uruguay came alive in a tough group after losing the first match against Costa Rica, they had the nerve to win against England and Italy, albeit with some luck in both of them. They didn't convince me at all, and looked too dependent on what an individual could do to change the match (Suarez or Godin). Now there is no Suarez, team will surely have some trouble getting into the final third without moonballing, and I can't see them holding out against a much better Colombia team, that I also feel has the potential to score at least 2 or more. Their attack has impressed me, and looks able to score twice against any team in this WC in a very good day. Colombia to win and to score twice on dutching looks okay to me.

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Re: Last 16 - Colombia v Uruguay > Saturday June 28th Back Draw/Colombia HT/FT @ 5.4 on Betfair I'm taking it easy in this last round of 16. Most of the games are relatively close including this one. There's not a huge amount of value in the match odds or under/over market in my opinion, so I'm looking elsewhere for a decent bet. Draw at half time and Colombia to have won the game at full time at over 4/1 stuck out to me. Here's my reasoning: - 9 of Colombia's last 11 goals at the World Cup have been scored in the second half. They've scored 2 goals in the first half of games in this World Cup, 1 of them being a penalty kick. They've scored 7 in the second half of games. - Uruguay have only scored 2 goals in the first half of games at this year's World Cup as well, with one of them being a penalty in their first game against Costa Rica and the other coming from Suarez right at the end of the half against England (he'll obviously not be playing tonight). I expect them to be quite defensive against Colombia at the start with very much a cautious approach. Much like the game against Italy, where they were happy enough to keep things tight early on despite knowing only a win was good enough to see them through. - I think Colombia will ultimately prove too strong and come out with the win after 90 minutes. If you take the scoreline of the second half of their 3 games so far, it reads: 2-0, 2-1, 3-0 all in their favour. In contrast, Uruguay's second half scorelines read: 0-3 (Costa Rica), 1-1 (England), 1-0 (Italy). That one and only positive scoreline in the second half of a game came when Italy had been reduced to 10 men. Italy had to play 30 minutes of that second half 10 against 11. So, that will be my only bet for tonight. Small stakes, but at 5.4, I thought it was decent value, especially in a tournament where we're seeing many games being tight in the first half, then come alive in the second. Good luck folks.

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Re: Last 16 - Colombia v Uruguay > Saturday June 28th Draw @3.40 Colombia have looked excellent thus far, but they've only played one team that could stymie them and that was the Greeks who gave up an unfortunate early goal, the Greeks also seemed fazed early playing in SA. Uruguay can set themselves up defensively and force Colombia to play hopeless crosses in and without Falcao can't see this being too difficult to deal with. I haven't been that impressed with Uruguay thought they were very fortunate vs both England and Italy, but they're the type of team that thrives in these situations. Colombia on the other hand hasn't, they lost to Peru in the Copa America after playing the best in the round robin of that tournament. Just see this being tight and I don't see Uruaguay winning in regular time but they will be patient and hope to nick one on the break, they know the pressure will mount on the Colombians.

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Re: Last 16 - Colombia v Uruguay > Saturday June 28th use following site - http://www.dectech.co.uk/football_sites/football_dectech/gamesim.php Columbia Vs Uruguay - pick neutral option Columbia - 47.7% = 100/47.7 = 2.10 Draw - 27.1% = 100/27.1 = 3.70 Uruguay - 25.2% = 100/25.2 = 3.97 Actual odds offered Columbia - 2.1 - Value = 0% Draw - 3.4 - Value = 3,4/3.7 = 0.92 = -8% value Uruguay - 4.2 - Value = 4.2/3.97 = 1.0579 = 6% value This match throws up some interesting questions the calculations show that the value is with Uruguay but at only 6% this is marginal. From what I have been reading on the Fish Tank system the minimum value should be >10% or even >15%. The other question is that for Uruguay Suarez is suspended for the game, their captain Lugano is a serious doubt with knee problems. Columbia breezed through their group and rested 8 first team players in their last match as they had already qualified and were still confident of beating Japan which they did 4-1. Columbia have the highest current shots to goal conversion in this wc and are basically on fire. Uruguay looked lost without the Suarez and Cavani link up play. So the real question is how much is the above information worth in terms of affecting the probabilities and therefore value. Well I am going for at least 15% to 20% which is of course subjective. This makes the value bet Columbia at 2.10 modify_inline.gif

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Re: Last 16 - Colombia v Uruguay > Saturday June 28th

First time poster, long time lurker. Some interesting points being made, Columbia have powered through what is a lreatively weak Group. Uruguay have grinded out two results after a shocker in the opening match. Trying to use Group games as a comparison, I see Greece set-up as possibly being simlar to a Suarez-less Uruguay and Columbia got a 3-0 victory...Uruguay got beaten (Suarez-less) against Costa Rica 3-1 and I see Columbia playing a similar style...so far things point to a Columbia victory. But, and it's a big but, I think the events of recent days will have brought about this "siege mentality" for the Uruguay squad - mentality that Mourinho/Ferguson etc successfully deployed in their teams...and I fully expect Uruguay to play deep, remove any space for Columbia and try nick a goal from a set-piece. I think unders @1.63 (888) is the bet. I'll also keep an eye in play as I think if Uruguay try to take the game to Columbia (unlikely), then Columbia will pick them off with ease.
Welcome! :) Good first post! :ok
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Re: Last 16 - Colombia v Uruguay > Saturday June 28th Uruguay offer value for me at the current odds. As I said above, they have a lot of experience, and have a good record against Colombia, and Colombia probably had an easier group. I think people are over-estimating Colombia and under-estimating Uruguay so there's now value on Uruguay ... Uruguay +0.5 1.84 sbobet Stake: 5 points

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Re: Last 16 - Colombia v Uruguay > Saturday June 28th

Uruguay offer value for me at the current odds. As I said above, they have a lot of experience, and have a good record against Colombia, and Colombia probably had an easier group. I think people are over-estimating Colombia and under-estimating Uruguay so there's now value on Uruguay ... Uruguay +0.5 1.84 sbobet Stake: 5 points
Lost FT: 2-0 Stake: 5 points Return: nil
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Re: Last 16 - Colombia v Uruguay > Saturday June 28th

Under 2.25 @ 1.88 (SBO)
Bet half won. Colombia completely deserved the win and could have caused some more damage. The value was clearly on Colombia. World Cup 2014 Stats: 26 Bets, 18 Wins, 7 Losses, 1 Void + 8.65 Units (1 Unit per bet)
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Re: Last 16 - Colombia v Uruguay > Saturday June 28th

Colombia -1 @11/4 Paddy Power. I would have taken Colombia to win this game even if Luis Saurez was still in town. To think that Uruguay will not miss him would be foolish. Any country would miss a player of world class ability and Uruguay will be at a severe loss without him I believe that Colombia are more than capable of taking on any country left in the competition. Three victories in the group, finishing with a thumping of Japan will certainly have bhoyed their confidence. Just 2 goals conceded to nine scored so far is reputable stuff to drive forward with and with James Rodriguez and Jackson Martinez firing on all cylinders, they have to be feared. Uruguay have certainly rode their luck in the competition, but I believe their luck has now expired. Had the referee applied the law in their games against England and Italy, they may all have accompanied Saurez on the plane back to Montevideo. To me they are one of the weaker South American teams in Brasil. I believe the well organised Colombians will put them to the sword and may win by two or more if the Uruguayans are left chasing the game.
:clap
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