Jump to content
Announcements
*** Ascot Festival Competition: Well done to 1st. RUG, 2nd. Soi Bongkot & 3rd. Jediknight ***
** June Poker League Result : 1st kevsul, 2nd Like2Fish, 3rd McG **
** June Naps Competition Result: 1st Kingdom for, 2nd Offramp, 3rd glavintobuy, 4th bymatrix. KO Cup Winner: Kingsom for, Most Winners: Johnrobertson **

Last 16 - Brazil v Chile > Saturday June 28th


Recommended Posts

[TABLE=class: couponTable, width: 617]

[TR=class: row0] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Brazil v Chile (17:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.66[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.35[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]6[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]99.66 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]
Link to post
Share on other sites

Re: Last 16 - Brazil v Chile > Saturday June 28th The Brazilian back 4 throw the shackles off when they play for Brazil with Silva being the only one with a little sense. Marcelo, Alves and even Luiz like to stray forward more than enough to make me nervous that they're inviting trouble. Marcelo and Alves are closet wingers who look more comfortable joining in the attack than shutting down those of opposition players. This all bodes perfectly well for Chile who's main threat is Sanchez and Vargas getting forward down the flanks and generally playing at an exciting tempo for most of the match. Chile really have the fast and furious style to upset Brazil. On the opposite side of the equation Chile have 4 short defenders who are the weakness in their team. Maybe that's why Chile are so offensive, they see it as the only way to make up for a leaky defence. Seems ripe for an over 2.5 bet 1.85 @ Interwetten. I don't usually play goals but all the circumstances are so perfect for goals here. Two teams who's attack are far better than their respective defences. A threat is normally fear of conceding and caginess, but Chile only know how to play one way and Brazil's fans only allow them to play one way and that is attack. Noticed when Brazil were stroking it among the back four early vs Cameroon that there were a few solitary whistles from the crowd and then Neymar promptly stuck one in to quiet them down. Now that's a harsh fan base. Good luck :ok

Link to post
Share on other sites

Re: Last 16 - Brazil v Chile > Saturday June 28th This is as far as it goes for Chile, I'm afraid. Which is a terrible shame because they are one of my favourite teams in this World Cup. This is not to say I'm overly impressed with Brazil, which I'm not, but I just can't see them going out in the round of 16, or even needing extra time to dispose of Chile. The game against Cameroon may not be much of a yardstick, but they appear to be growing in confidence as the tournament progresses, while Chile may have hit their peak against Spain. The head to head statistics also make an unpleasant reading for Chile. I expect a valiant effort from Sanchez and co, but ultimately it won't be enough. I don't bet on singles with odds smaller than 2.0, so a straight win for Brasil @ 1.57 will probably go into a double or some accumulator.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Re: Last 16 - Brazil v Chile > Saturday June 28th I don't rate Brazil at all, Chile have a better side in my opinion. Fred/Hulk are abysmal, they have no bite in midfield, Oscar has been non existent in the last two games. Mexico outplayed them, Croatia deserved a draw at the very least and Cameroon were missing their best players and were already out. Also, Cameroon ripped them open at will in the first half, they had several fantastic opportunities. Chile are a very well organised, hard working, technically very good side with good attacking players and odds of 1.57 Brazil is the worst value I have seen in the tournament to date. If Chile keep Neymar quiet, they win.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Re: Last 16 - Brazil v Chile > Saturday June 28th Totally agree with Aidymac. Brazil has been very poor so far - not only on this tournament, but as a whole in the last 4 years in most of the friendlies they have played. They have joke forwards like Fred and Jo. Their defense is surprisingly shaky (I believe this should be the line where Brazil should be one of the best in the world). But their worst problem, imo, is their midfield, which is simply lacking vision and creativity, often losing easy balls and thus putting their defense under huge pressure, and making Brazil attacks so one-dimensional and predictable. I am shocked at Scolari's stubborness to play dead-wood like Paulinho and Gustavo in midfield, and bench one of the best and most creative midfielders in the world - Fernandinho. Paulinho and Luis Gustavo are simply limited players with very defensive profile and little technique and passing skills. As Scolari is a stubborn and always negative manager, I believe he will insist on using "horses" in the midfield, rather than "artists". Also, forgive me, but I still think Neymar is very overrated. The goals against clownish Cameroon defense and the gift from Croatian keeper Pletikosa don't tell the whole story. Neymar is not an efficient player and his decision-making is questionable. He often engages in foolish dribbling and making show-off moves against several opponents, instead of passing quickly the ball to free team-mates in good position. He often loses the ball in stupid way in areas, where dangerous counters might be launched against Brazil. And I seriously question the guy's ability to act in small spaces against tight defenses - we know he is excellent one-on-one with enough space to run past the defender, but I don't think he is efficient in alternative circumstances. Last but not least, pressure is completely on Brazil's shoulders. A lose to Chile will be like a nightmare not only for the team, but for the whole nations. Meanwhile, Chileans are relaxed and at the same time very confident in themselves. Chile +1 @1..96 (SBO)

Link to post
Share on other sites

Re: Last 16 - Brazil v Chile > Saturday June 28th

Totally agree with Aidymac. Brazil has been very poor so far - not only on this tournament, but as a whole in the last 4 years in most of the friendlies they have played. They have joke forwards like Fred and Jo. Their defense is surprisingly shaky (I believe this should be the line where Brazil should be one of the best in the world). But their worst problem, imo, is their midfield, which is simply lacking vision and creativity, often losing easy balls and thus putting their defense under huge pressure, and making Brazil attacks so one-dimensional and predictable. I am shocked at Scolari's stubborness to play dead-wood like Paulinho and Gustavo in midfield, and bench one of the best and most creative midfielders in the world - Fernandinho. Paulinho and Luis Gustavo are simply limited players with very defensive profile and little technique and passing skills. As Scolari is a stubborn and always negative manager, I believe he will insist on using "horses" in the midfield, rather than "artists". Also, forgive me, but I still think Neymar is very overrated. The goals against clownish Cameroon defense and the gift from Croatian keeper Pletikosa don't tell the whole story. Neymar is not an efficient player and his decision-making is questionable. He often engages in foolish dribbling and making show-off moves against several opponents, instead of passing quickly the ball to free team-mates in good position. He often loses the ball in stupid way in areas, where dangerous counters might be launched against Brazil. And I seriously question the guy's ability to act in small spaces against tight defenses - we know he is excellent one-on-one with enough space to run past the defender, but I don't think he is efficient in alternative circumstances. Last but not least, pressure is completely on Brazil's shoulders. A lose to Chile will be like a nightmare not only for the team, but for the whole nations. Meanwhile, Chileans are relaxed and at the same time very confident in themselves. Chile +1 @1..96 (SBO)
I don't really agree with your opinions on Neymar, think the boy has a lot of talent and has been the player of the tournament so far alongside James Rodriguez and Robben. Brazil have a team packed with workhorses, should Scolari have taken players like Moura to add more creativity to the midfield? Probably, but then you can't really argue with his record in International football, won the World Cup with Brazil, took Portugal to a European Champ final, and quarter final, and a World Cup Semi Final. As someone who backed Chile at 50/1 I'm hoping they win! I think we saw slightly against the Netherlands, who aren't dissimilar to Brazil really in approach that you can nullify Chile - both Netherlands and Brazil rely on one or two players to provide the creativity - they can be made quite impotent if you don't try and go toe to toe with them. They struggled against the tight, suffocating game Netherlands played against them and created little to be honest, a deep defensive line didn't allow them to exploit the usual space behind the full backs. Were they massively motivated to win that game? Probably not, they left a couple out and didn't appear to be going full pelt, they will certainly be up for this one though. If you look at it subjectively Chile look a fantastic price, and I agree +1.0AH certainly looks the way to go, I can't really see them beating Brazil - they haven't beaten them in the last 12 matches 10-2-0 - but I think they will run them close.
Link to post
Share on other sites

Re: Last 16 - Brazil v Chile > Saturday June 28th

I think we saw slightly against the Netherlands, who aren't dissimilar to Brazil really in approach that you can nullify Chile - both Netherlands and Brazil rely on one or two players to provide the creativity - they can be made quite impotent if you don't try and go toe to toe with them. They struggled against the tight, suffocating game Netherlands played against them and created little to be honest, a deep defensive line didn't allow them to exploit the usual space behind the full backs. Were they massively motivated to win that game? Probably not, they left a couple out and didn't appear to be going full pelt, they will certainly be up for this one though.
I don't think we can use the Netherlands game as any reference. It had completely different complexion - Chile had to win, Netherlands had to draw. If Chile had to win and lead the game against Brazil, while Brazilians defend and hit on counters, I would have surely expected Brazilian win. But now it is a very different scenario. Also, having read enough Brazilian supporters mentality, we can expect with high likelihood a very negative reaction from the stands if Brazil plays as defensively as Netherlands did. And also, if the score is not in Brazil's favor, the pressure from the stands won't be on the Chileans but on Brazilians themselves.
Link to post
Share on other sites

Re: Last 16 - Brazil v Chile > Saturday June 28th

I don't think we can use the Netherlands game as any reference. It had completely different complexion - Chile had to win' date=' Netherlands had to draw. If Chile had to win and lead the game against Brazil, while Brazilians defend and hit on counters, I would have surely expected Brazilian win. But now it is a very different scenario. Also, having read enough Brazilian supporters mentality, we can expect with high likelihood a very negative reaction from the stands if Brazil plays as defensively as Netherlands did. And also, if the score is not in Brazil's favor, the pressure from the stands won't be on the Chileans but on Brazilians themselves.[/quote'] The pressure from the stands is nothing new, they have been booed most home friendlies I have watched if they are at all negative - regardless of what the score was at the time! Be interesting to see what the price does tomorrow..should be a cracking game anyway.
Link to post
Share on other sites

Re: Last 16 - Brazil v Chile > Saturday June 28th I am amazed at the negative comments for Brazil,I have watched all the matches so far and have not been impressed by any team. I'm sure brazil will improve vastly in the knockout stages. It's a long time since they have been beaten at home,or by chile. For anyone who fancies Chile the bet to go for is both teams to score Chile win 10/1 general My bet is Brazil 3/5 PP

Link to post
Share on other sites

Re: Last 16 - Brazil v Chile > Saturday June 28th I'm fairly confident Brazil will win this - they nearly always beat Chile - and I think both sides will secretly believe that Brazil will win. I think Brazil's players are bigger and that might count in both boxes. I'm struggling to find any clear value, and it's a NO BET for me.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Re: Last 16 - Brazil v Chile > Saturday June 28th I'm cautious to go with Brazil despite the fact the likelihood is they'll win, the return isn't value enough to risk the possibility of an upset. So I'm going for 2.5+ goals as my main bet, even considering 3.5+ tbh, I feel we'll see a few goals in this for sure as both teams can score well and both will leave openings for one another. I will also put a very small amount on Chile win BTTS, you never know.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Re: Last 16 - Brazil v Chile > Saturday June 28th Brazil had a good game against Cameroon, but overall they have been less than impressive. I can see Brazil having a hard time in this match, although they are more likely to progress. Chile usually start very well, but their extremely aggressive style of play leaves the players tired nearing the end of the match. I think it is realistic that Chile nets the first goal, and that they have a one-goal lead near the end of the game. At that point, they will be too tired to stand the Brazilian offensive. I think a draw + Brazil winning at extra time is a realistic result. My bet is draw @ 4.3

Link to post
Share on other sites

Re: Last 16 - Brazil v Chile > Saturday June 28th

Brazil had a good game against Cameroon, but overall they have been less than impressive. I can see Brazil having a hard time in this match, although they are more likely to progress. Chile usually start very well, but their extremely aggressive style of play leaves the players tired nearing the end of the match. I think it is realistic that Chile nets the first goal, and that they have a one-goal lead near the end of the game. At that point, they will be too tired to stand the Brazilian offensive. I think a draw + Brazil winning at extra time is a realistic result. My bet is draw @ 4.3
Is that possible in 1/16?
Link to post
Share on other sites

Re: Last 16 - Brazil v Chile > Saturday June 28th 4pts Both teams to score 17/20 BetVictor I’m really looking forward to this match. I expect it to be entertaining and very attacking and I expect to see some goals. This is a real banana skin for Brazil and you would think Chile are going to get some joy against the backline of the Samba Boys. That said Chile have looked suspect at the back, especially from crosses so Brazil could well find some joy that way too. That makes me confident that both sides will score. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/brazil-vs-chile-betting-both-sides-can-score-in-south-american-clash

Link to post
Share on other sites

Re: Last 16 - Brazil v Chile > Saturday June 28th I expect Chilean goals because of their rushing aggressive attack-minded football. I do not expect they would qualify or even draw (it's the host nation in the Last 16 after all), but one or two Chilean goals are very likely, especially on the flanks. During the qualifiers: out of 16 matches 14 matches had Chilean scoring. During the WC so far: Brazil conceded twice in 3 matches, Chile scored 5 in matches (3 Australia, 2 Spain). Against Holland there were totally different circumstances. Brazil NEEDS to attack, Chile can rely on the deadly counters, this is perfect scenario for Vargas or Sánchez. As a plus, all the midfield has a powerful long distance shot and every Chilen field player aside of Silva has scored already for the national team. I see "visitors" scoring! Pinnacle Sports offers an over 0,75 line for Chile at 1,97, my stake is 7/10.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Re: Last 16 - Brazil v Chile > Saturday June 28th Fred TSA @ 3 (Betfair Exchange) for a 0.4 stake Thiago Silva TSA @ 13.5 (Betfair Exchange) for a 0.1 stake Prices just too big too ignore. Chile is a "suicidal" team that loves to pressure all over and attack, while leaving their defensive back in a lot of trouble. Chile has a very low height defensive line, with 3 CBs that are lower than 1.80m. even though their positioning helps, they are extremely weak in the aerial duels. Goals conceded against Australia and Netherlands are the definite proof that to win against Chile, you have to win them by playing the ball on the air. Brazil do enjoy their regular crossing and have excellents wing-backs and other creative players to deliver them. Fred is not the best striker in the world, but he is good physically and has good heading, he should be able to score if with chances and 3.00 is just too big for a striker, in a 1.61 Over 2.5 game. As for Thiago Silva, once again price at 13.5 is too big while at 11 on other bookies. Brazil will definitely get some corners, and Thiago Silva is awfully strong on the air.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Re: Last 16 - Brazil v Chile > Saturday June 28th Today I will be looking for 2-0 score: - it is knocking stage (scored/conceded goal is more important than in group stage, because one team will go home without second chance) - Brazil is favourite, they play at home (referees?) - lacking of 2-0 scores It's more statistical reasons and perhaps even a little gambling. If you like trading then you can take some "actions" during the match if: - if at HT won't be goals I will think about to close trade with 0 profit or loss (odds for 2-0 are stable in live betting/trading during the first half) - if Brazil will first score I will think to reduced liability or stay with whole stake (maybe with cover next goal for chile) - If Chile will score first then I will take my loss and watch the game For trading is the best scenario goal for Brazil between 30 and 45 min. You can cash out with 100% profit or just reduce liability to get free bet on 2-0 for about 400-500% of your initial stake.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Re: Last 16 - Brazil v Chile > Saturday June 28th Fish Tank system - have to work it out on your own now so here it goes. select teams Brazil Vs Chile - give Brazil Home advantage This gives following probabilities Brazil 73.8% - Draw 16.2% - Chile 10% next convert to odds Brazil = 100/73.8 = 1.36 Draw = 100/16.2 = 6.17 Chile = 100/10 = 10 Lets now compare to actual odds Brazil - 1.57 Draw - 4.6 Chile - 6.5 Now we calculate the value - Brazil - 1.57/ 1.36 = 1.1544 * 100 = 15% value Draw - 4.6 / 6.17 = 0.7455 * 100 = - 25% value Chile - 6.5 / 10 = 0.65* 100 = -35% value Therefore in this game Brazil is the Value bet at odds of 1.57. modify_inline.gif

Link to post
Share on other sites

Re: Last 16 - Brazil v Chile > Saturday June 28th

Today I will be looking for 2-0 score: - it is knocking stage (scored/conceded goal is more important than in group stage, because one team will go home without second chance) - Brazil is favourite, they play at home (referees?) - lacking of 2-0 scores
Sorry - that makes no sense to me - backing a score because there haven't been many 2-0 scores so far?
Link to post
Share on other sites

Re: Last 16 - Brazil v Chile > Saturday June 28th

Today I will be looking for 2-0 score: - it is knocking stage (scored/conceded goal is more important than in group stage, because one team will go home without second chance) - Brazil is favourite, they play at home (referees?) - lacking of 2-0 scores.
"A bag contains red, blue and green balls. 5 times a ball has been drawn from the bag, then put back. There has not been a green ball drawn. There is a good chance the next ball that's drawn is green." Well, football betting is not like that.
Link to post
Share on other sites

Re: Last 16 - Brazil v Chile > Saturday June 28th

Chile +1 @1..96 (SBO)
Bet won. In the first half Chile panicked a lot in the defense and when trying to play the ball outside of their half. Brazil should have scored some more goals. But in 2nd half and ever after that, Chile established their game and they managed to keep Brazil quiet, meanwhile missing two golden chances to execute Brazil. World Cup 2014 Stats: 26 Bets, 18 Wins, 7 Losses, 1 Void + 8.65 Units (1 Unit per bet)
Link to post
Share on other sites

Re: Last 16 - Brazil v Chile > Saturday June 28th

"A bag contains red, blue and green balls. 5 times a ball has been drawn from the bag, then put back. There has not been a green ball drawn. There is a good chance the next ball that's drawn is green." Well, football betting is not like that.
Indeed! It is like betting that Fred will score a hat-trick in the next game because statistically Brazilian number 9s at World Cup finals score at least 5 goals, and Fred has only 1 so far (and disregarding the fact what clueless mug Fred is).
Link to post
Share on other sites

Re: Last 16 - Brazil v Chile > Saturday June 28th

Sorry - that makes no sense to me - backing a score because there haven't been many 2-0 scores so far?
I know and understand. I am sure that majority don't agree with me and betting, trading or predicting based on "technical analysis". But for those who understand and know hot to use it can help. Of course technical analysis can not predict, well nobody can predict. Always is our estimation what will happen. Sometimes based on player analysis, sometimes on other football relating circumstances... I do a lot on statistic. For example - % of matches with 2 goals from 1986: 1986: 32.7% 1990: 25.0% 1994: 23.1% 1998: 18.8% 2002: 34.4% 2006: 28.1% 2010: 21.9% 2014 (before final stage): only 8.3% So what we can think about that: - this stats do not influence to any match - 64 matches in the world cup is too little matches for patterns, perhaps 1000 matches (as someone else said in one of prev posts) is enough for patterns - or predict that in next 16 matches the stats will go to ranges, so this year for example to at least 15%? Or at least 4 matches with 2 goals in remained 16 matches My thinking is going to last possibility. Well in Brazil match I missed. I bet on 2-0 (I lowered half of liability after Luiz goal) and lossed. Well, it was 1-1: so match with two goals. But now we know also for the score of next match: 2-0 for Colombia - another match with 2 goals and finally 2-0 score. In fact 3 of last 4 matches ended with exactly 2 goals. I named this "statistical waves". Scores and outcomes come with waves. We have period of high scoring matches then period with low scoring matches etc. And that's the point of averages and deviations. Only question is how big set of matches should be: 64, 200, 1.000?
Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...