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Group G - USA v Germany > Thursday June 26th


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[TABLE=class: couponTable, width: 617]

[TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]USA v Germany (17:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]11[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.72[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.32 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]
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Re: Group G - USA v Germany > Thursday June 26th Both teams qualify if they draw, making this match a good one for conspiracy theorists. I'm surprised the draw odds are as high as 3.0 (widely available) because I've seen then a lot lower with this sort of match. If either side loses they are at risk of being overtaken by Ghana or Portugal who play the other game. USA are at most risk because Germany's goal difference is comfortably the best in the group. So I would imagine USA will play a defensive game here. It would suicidal for them to attack with Germany's speed and skill on the counter. I think the game COULD be a draw, but not necessarily. But if it is a draw with, say, 10 minutes to go, I think both teams will play safely rather than risk losing. Under 2.5 goals at 2.0 (Marathon) looks interesting, as this could be a game of few goals.

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Re: Group G - USA v Germany > Thursday June 26th Germany-USA Bet: Germany @ 1.7 (4/10) (Pinnacle) Ok so we had odds of around 1.3 to 1-4 before the Portugal-USA match on most bookmakers. Now the market reacted to the game and especially to the circumstances. If these two teams draw, both get into next round. And as Klinsman is the coach of USA and is still a friend of Löw, most people think that the teams will both agree on a draw. This caused the drastic odd change. I have to disagree with this. Germany is not a team that will go into a match to just draw. The match against Ghana was a big down for the team and they surely don't want to go into the next round with a draw in which they didn't even try. You can be sure that Germany will try to win this match. USA on the other side also won't just go for a draw. That's not their playstyle and does not the mentality of Klinsman. They will go for the win as well. With Altidore they will miss a very important striker against Germany once again. On Germany's side there will probably some changes. Boateng and Khedira are not 100% fit and considering the way Klose and Schweinsteiger changed the match against Ghana the chances for both to come in are not that bad. Every player that is going to be in this match will go for a win. Either to prove that the match against Ghana was just a mistake or to make a big enough influence to stay in starting line up for the next game. As the odds were highly influenced by the "fair draw" thinking and I can not agree with that, I do see value here.

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Re: Group G - USA v Germany > Thursday June 26th A draw will suit both and the value could be 2-2 at around 15/1 on betfair. Another early start for the germans who looked tired in their last game. A german manager of the opposition, who have scored 2 goals in each of their previous games. bet: 2 points 2-2 draw at 15/1 betfair nb not much liquidity at the moment on bf

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Re: Group G - USA v Germany > Thursday June 26th No way can i see this being a draw. The US would love one and will sit back and the Germans will then be able to have a lot of time to pick them apart and break them down. Will be interesting to see what the US will do if they are down a couple of goals and whether they will try to hang on or take a few more risks to better the goal difference. 4/6 - Various on this Germany side seems rather large imo. That being said i can't see the Germans trying really hard and pushing on for a big scoreline so 2-0 seems fairly likely, which seems reasonable at 8/1 with BV.

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Re: Group G - USA v Germany > Thursday June 26th 4pts Germany (-0.75AH) to beat USA 1.87 Bet365 I know there’s all the conspiracy theories around this game but in truth I fear for the States in this one. They put in a lot of energy against Portugal up in Manaus and I can’t believe that won’t have an effect on them in this game. Germany may not be a lot fresher but they have much better options outside of their first XI if they want to change things and that can be the difference. A draw suits both but Germany are ruthless and can win this. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/usa-vs-germany-betting-germany-can-defy-the-conspiracy-theorists

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Re: Group G - USA v Germany > Thursday June 26th 8pts Both teams to score @ 1.80 Betvictor USA have scored 2 goals in each of their last 6 games, and both teams to score would have landed in 5 of those. Germany have scored 14 goals in their last 4 games alone, and both teams to score would have landed in 3 of those. I expect both teams to be going at it from the very get go and don't see any of these conspiracy theories happening. Hopefully we should get an open and entertaining game.

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Re: Group G - USA v Germany > Thursday June 26th The draw is now out to 3.30 at bet365 and touching 3.40 at BF. I can see value in this again now. Especially as a starting point to trade. 0-0 after say 15min and this price tumbles. I think it will creep in before KO anyway as people worry about the draw. Ok....assumptions.... Germany will rest a few (injuries, yellow cards, energy). Ghana cut them open on occasions. USA capable of doing same on previous showings. And USA score goals. Germany (like USA) will stay compact and won't leave gaps Early KO = harder conditions. Plus the good old german manager links and actual end outcome if a draw. Germany were nailed on to beat Ghana remember. This time they don't actually benefit from winning..... Just food for thought but becoming a cracking bet again for me.

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Re: Group G - USA v Germany > Thursday June 26th I agree that the draw it too good to ignore at that price. Neither team is going to go out playing for the draw but physiologically if it's all level at 60+ minutes, I can't see either team taking any chances whatsoever with committing players forward. If either team are getting beat but still in it late on; we've already seen both teams scoring important late goals. If both teams would accept a draw right now, it'd be stupid to rule it out.

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Re: Group G - USA v Germany > Thursday June 26th One thing I forgot in my post was that..... If a draw still put both through but USA as group winners, it would be a completely different scenario. No way Germany would accept 2nd place so would go for the (highly likely) win. As a draw gives Germany the group, and USA just happy to quaify, it is even more possible an outcome.

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Re: Group G - USA v Germany > Thursday June 26th I think I'll cover 0-0 and 1-1 just in case, but really I think Germany will go for it and win. Btts is tempting, though there's also Muller to score and Germany to win 2.75 WH (might be able to get 3 elsewhere, or close to it).

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Re: Group G - USA v Germany > Thursday June 26th The market going crazy - 1.80 for Germany now. I was waiting for this. Sorry, but I don't believe in this conspiracy stories. All I see is a way classier and fully fit German team, who played with high intensity just 45 minutes - 1st half against Portugal, against a USA team which played two very intense games against Ghana and Portugal, and on top of this had one day less to rest. Also it is very likely that the Ghana-Portugal game goes in USA favor (Portugal leading), which would mean that the Americans might open up and try to go for the first place in the group. I think Germany will really want to keep 1st place and avoid Belgium in 1/8 finals and they ain't gonna rely on keeping a draw (in which case a late American winner can stun them), but will try to get advantage. Germany @ 1.80 (bet 365)

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Re: Group G - USA v Germany > Thursday June 26th Tweet from CNN Breaking News (@cnnbrk) - U.S.-Germany World Cup match will go on as scheduled today despite heavy rain, FIFA says. https://twitter.com/cnnbrk/status/482159931278503937 Looks like a pretty wet pitch. Update: with more pictures http://www.101greatgoals.com/blog/recife-is-under-water-before-germany-v-united-states-after-a-biblical-amount-of-rain-overnight-pictures/

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Re: Group G - USA v Germany > Thursday June 26th As I prefer a trading as betting I will look today for something different. My speculations is going to statistic fact that afternoon matches (1 PM in local time) usually start slow. So I will before KO back (at BetFair) under 2.5 in both matches (or maybe under 3.5 in Ghana-Portugal because of high odds). Then I will wait (and wait). If around 25' there wouldn't be goals a will perhaps take some action: - lower my liability - cash out - ... I will take this trade becuse the calculation shows: - if both matches will end 0-0 at HT => I am around 60% in profit - if both matches will end 1-0 at HT => I am around 15% in profit - if one match end 0-0 and second 1-0 ad HT => I am around 40% in profit - if one match end 0-0 and second with 2 goals => I am around 15% in loss - in other scores I am from 40-100% in loss In my evaluation that is value because technical analysis of past results show me a high possibility of max 2 goals in 2 matches today at Half Time. Perhaps you will again rejected those type of analysis but as it has shown could be correct (for example analysis of goals in first half after 4-times 0-0 in last 6 - for those who remember our discussion from two/three days ago). p.s. I just read post of heavy rain and pretty wet pitch. Could be this another reason for slow starts / low scored goals?

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Re: Group G - USA v Germany > Thursday June 26th Just realize (if you are interesting): - all four matches in Group G ended with over 2.5 - from 1986 (currently I don't have older data) there were no group with 6 overs - we have seen only 4-times a group with just 1 under - but two of them in this World Cup!

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Re: Group G - USA v Germany > Thursday June 26th From BBC Sport website, thankfully looks like the pitch is in a playable condition and the weather has not affected it too much! USA v Germany (17:00 BST) "After three hours we have finally arrived at Arena Pernambuco and the playing surface looks remarkably playable, it has to be said. The two major concerns will be for those who are still scrambling to get to the ground, through the floods or stuck in the awful traffic that has built up as a result. "Tim Howard and the US goalkeepers have just come out onto the field to warm up beneath me. No question that the US have the vast majority of fans here in Recife."

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Re: Group G - USA v Germany > Thursday June 26th First stage: Everyone points a finger at Germany and USA "You'll play for a mutually beneficial draw in order to eliminate Portugal and Ghana." Second stage: Germany and USA react "We only play fair, these are absurd claims. We will never arrange a result." Third stage: The match finishes in a mutually beneficial DRAW 3.10 Bet365

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Re: Group G - USA v Germany > Thursday June 26th

- if one match end 0-0 and second 1-0 ad HT => I am around 40% in profit
65% profit (after commission) from USA-Germany 12% profit (after commission) from Portugal-Ghana Together around 38,5%. Or close Portugal-Ghana and stay in play with USA-Germany...
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Re: Group G - USA v Germany > Thursday June 26th

8pts Both teams to score @ 1.80 Betvictor USA have scored 2 goals in each of their last 6 games, and both teams to score would have landed in 5 of those. Germany have scored 14 goals in their last 4 games alone, and both teams to score would have landed in 3 of those. I expect both teams to be going at it from the very get go and don't see any of these conspiracy theories happening. Hopefully we should get an open and entertaining game.
-8pts Sigh, literally having 0 luck these last few games. USA never looked like scoring, right at the end they had two chances to score one, but of course, they don't. Going to just watch the first 5-10 minutes before betting on anything hence forth.
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Re: Group G - USA v Germany > Thursday June 26th

-8pts Sigh, literally having 0 luck these last few games. USA never looked like scoring, right at the end they had two chances to score one, but of course, they don't. Going to just watch the first 5-10 minutes before betting on anything hence forth.
I thought USA came close - but they were not as clinical as Germany
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Re: Group G - USA v Germany > Thursday June 26th

Germany @ 1.80 (bet 365)
Of course, once again the conspiracy theories turned wrong. Germany won, although with some difficulty. World Cup 2014 Stats: 24 Bets, 16 Wins, 7 Losses, 1 Void + 7.25 Units (1 Unit per bet)
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