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Group C: Japan vs Colombia > Tues 24th June


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Re: Group C: Japan vs Columbia > Tues 24th June 4pts Over 2.5 goals Evs William Hill Colombia are already through but I still think they’ll be up for this game even though there must be a temptation to take on Costa Rica in the next round. Japan have to open up and go for goals because they need to win by a couple to have a chance of going through so I think we’ll see some goals in this game. Both sides attack with plenty of pace and neither are particularly quick in defence so that spells out goals to me. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/japan-vs-colombia-betting-goals-can-flow-in-cuiaba

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Re: Group C: Japan vs Columbia > Tues 24th June I agree with Kev about goals, but my main bet is Colombia to win. They are going to use some of the reserves, but actually we are talking about top players like Carlos Bacca and Jackson Martinez ( and a few others). I can imagine Colombia looking even more dangerous up-front with these guys. I am not worried about possible temptation of Colombians to lose on purpose, because it is very unlikely that they lose the 1st place - they have 4 goals advantage over Ivory Coast and it is not even certain whether Ivory Coast will win their game. Colombians are overall way better, more balanced and more accomplished team than Japan. The Japanese will push forward as they need only 3 points, but their defense is weak and vulnerable, especially in the physical department. Japan do have speed and dynamics in attack, but they do suffer against tough and strong defenders (as seen against Greece, when Japan barely created anything). This is the reason why I prefer straight Colombia win instead of Overs. Another factor to consider is that Colombia is like a home team - there are tens of thousands of their fans on the stands and the previous two games witnessed a yellow sea of Colombians. Colombia @ 2.20 (Bet Victor)

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Re: Group C: Japan vs Columbia > Tues 24th June Colombia highest scoring half = 2nd half @ 11/8 (Bet365) Japan haven't conceded before HT yet at World Cup and four of Colombia's five goals have been in 2nd half. With Japan also needing to win to have any chance of qualifying from group, there is a every chance they will get more attacking the longer the game goes on.

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Re: Group C: Japan vs Columbia > Tues 24th June Japan Over 1.5 TG @ 3.00 (unibet) for a 0.35 stake Well, some people might just wonder what the hell am I doing here, but I really like my chances. Although I think Colombia will not lose this one and the record of CONCACAF and CONMEBOL teams in the world cup against non-CONCACAF and non-CONMEBOL opposition is outstanding, Japan have nothing to lose here and they work best when they have nothing to lose. I'm expecting a more relaxed Colombia, with some rotation players that are amazingly good as well (Jackson Martinez and Quintero, for example). Although Japan lost against Ivory Coast in a woeful performance, they were really good against Greece in some moments, but finishing was lacking. Still, it looked like they had the weight of the world in them. Now, it is do or die and Japan have got the quality to score at least one goal. In a good day, I'm pretty sure they will score two or more. Colombia had some trouble stopping Ivory Coast pressure, and Japan do know how to push the opponents into the last third of their half. The only problem is Japan backline. They surely are not the best and Colombia will exploit the counters. That's why I'm avoiding MO betting.

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Re: Group C: Japan vs Columbia > Tues 24th June Maybe someone that is more family with Colombia can help me out here. Something tells me that Colombia will wait to see how group D ends before they select who will play agaist Japan, becouse I feel they are more intressted to go a match against Costa Rica in the next round then Italy/Uruguay or is it only conspiracy thoughts from my brain?

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Re: Group C: Japan vs Columbia > Tues 24th June

Maybe someone that is more family with Colombia can help me out here. Something tells me that Colombia will wait to see how group D ends before they select who will play agaist Japan, becouse I feel they are more intressted to go a match against Costa Rica in the next round then Italy/Uruguay or is it only conspiracy thoughts from my brain?
I'm not that familiar with Colombia but I was about to post the same thing. Colombia have qualified from Group C. If they win it, they play the runner-up in Group D. If they are second, they play the winner of Group D. There's an interesting angle from the BBC match preview. They suggest that if Costa Rica win Group D, Colombia would prefer to face them rather than Italy or Uruguay, so they have less incentive to win their group. I think that's true, although it's hard to believe they would deliberately lose the game http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/25455848
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Re: Group C: Japan vs Columbia > Tues 24th June Don't miss the statistic fact: In last 6 matches we saw for times 0-0 at Half Time. Even more in all for matches there were 0-0 also in 70' (right now is 70' on both current matches). This is a big deviation as about 65% matches bring at least one goal in first half and 84% of matches bring first goal until 70'. So perhaps it's time to bet on over 0.5/1.0/1.25 in first half. It's not great odds, but I am quite sure that in next few matches you can come into green numbers. That's mean that perhaps you would win at all matches. But I expect something like: 3 of 4, 4/5 of 6 in next matches. (Like I wrote before today first matches that statistically we expect couple of low scoring matches based on very high running average of scoring goals). The main problem is that the odds for over getting lower and lower and consequentially the odds for over 0.5 in first half also getting lower and lower. I haven't imagine that the under odd on Greece matches could be near evens. I hope that statistic is not too complicated for understand.

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Re: Group C: Japan vs Columbia > Tues 24th June

James Rodriguez to score first 15/2 paddy power To score anytime 23/10 paddy power i think rodriguez is having a great world cup and he is usually among the goals so i feel this bet will come through as he is a class player who could be the star of the world cup
Will he definitely play? Think Colombia will rest players.
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Re: Group C: Japan vs Columbia > Tues 24th June

Don't miss the statistic fact: In last 6 matches we saw for times 0-0 at Half Time. Even more in all for matches there were 0-0 also in 70' (right now is 70' on both current matches). This is a big deviation as about 65% matches bring at least one goal in first half and 84% of matches bring first goal until 70'.
These games are completely unrelated to each other. And if you are to analyze a pattern and draw statistical conclusions, you will need a much bigger sample than six games. This has no statistical significance.
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Re: Group C: Japan vs Columbia > Tues 24th June

These games are completely unrelated to each other. And if you are to analyze a pattern and draw statistical conclusions' date=' you will need a much bigger sample than six games. This has no statistical significance.[/quote'] Of course could be true. But if historical statistic shows that some series almost never happen and on other side bookies offer complete opposite price is worth to take. Agree? It's all about risk:reward ratio. And in this particular series sincer 1986 (except Italy) we never saw 5x 0-0 at Half Time from 6 matches. We could see today if both matches will be goalless in first half. It could be. Of course could be no goal in first half in next 10 matches. But possibility to happen that is low. And I don't want to judge or argue that goals will come and then if really would come to be loud and want some praise. I just want to put another view. And if that help anyone ok, if don't also ok.
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Re: Group C: Japan vs Columbia > Tues 24th June

Of course could be true. But if historical statistic shows that some series almost never happen and on other side bookies offer complete opposite price is worth to take. Agree? It's all about risk:reward ratio. And in this particular series sincer 1986 (except Italy) we never saw 5x 0-0 at Half Time from 6 matches. We could see today if both matches will be goalless in first half. It could be. Of course could be no goal in first half in next 10 matches. But possibility to happen that is low. And I don't want to judge or argue that goals will come and then if really would come to be loud and want some praise. I just want to put another view. And if that help anyone ok, if don't also ok.
Its an interesting view, Ive seen quite a few of your posts, and I think you are wasting your time and money and I will explain why: Your reasoning seems based on "regression to the mean", for instance, if lots of goals are scored, you will bet on unders for the next games because they have to be under games to bring the goal average back to a reasonable level. Of course, if lots of goals are scored, and after the first round of group stage games there is a very high average of goals, like in this tournament, then its likely that the average will eventually go lower. BUT its not because of the many goals in the first half, its because the average world cup football game has 2.38 goals or whatever the number is, and there will always be a tendency for a large enough sample of games to have an average at or around 2.38. If you play six games with average of 4 goals, then play 100 more games with an average of 2.38, your average is pretty close to 2.38, and thats how "regression to the mean" works. If you flip a coin and get heads 50 times in a row, its still 50/50 on the next throw. Of course this series with 50 head tosses will "regress to the mean" after a large volume, because the next 1000 throws are most likely to be around 50/50. And the sample of world cup games played so far in the history of mankind I would argue is not large enough to be statistically relevant, the standard deviation of goals is quite high and I suppose you would have to play about 100 more world cups before the stats actually say something.
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Re: Group C: Japan vs Columbia > Tues 24th June

If you flip a coin and get heads 50 times in a row' date=' its still 50/50 on the next throw.[/quote'] I haven't had time to read Yuri's long posts - but I think this is always worth remembering in gambling/betting. If you get a group of people together and toss a coin in front of them with 50 heads in a row, some people will start to believe the 51st toss is sure to be heads (because every one until now has been) and other people will believe the next one is likely to be 'tails' by 'the law of averages'. In fact, as you say, the odds on each one are exactly 50/50 no matter what sequence happened before.
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Re: Group C: Japan vs Columbia > Tues 24th June Line-ups from BBC website: http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/25455848 Japan 01 Kawashima 02 Uchida 05 Nagatomo 17 Hasebe 15 Konno 22 Yoshida 13 Okubo 14 Aoyama 09 Okazaki 04 Honda 10 Kagawa Colombia 01 Ospina 04 Arias 07 Armero 13 Guarín 23 Valdés 16 Balanta 11 Cuadrado 15 Mejía 21 Martinez 19 Ramos 20 Quintero

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Re: Group C: Japan vs Columbia > Tues 24th June

I haven't had time to read Yuri's long posts - but I think this is always worth remembering in gambling/betting. If you get a group of people together and toss a coin in front of them with 50 heads in a row' date=' some people will start to believe the 51st toss is sure to be heads (because every one until now has been) and other people will believe the next one is likely to be 'tails' by 'the law of averages'. In fact, as you say, the odds on each one are exactly 50/50 no matter what sequence happened before.[/quote'] Yes! If you ask just for one flip. But what is possibility for five heads in row? Its exactly 3,125%. It just the matter of your viewpoint or your question. And second question in what number of matches you expect to averages come to mean (and of course question is if you can determine expected mean or at least range for mean). It could be 1000 matches or perhaps just 64 matches? That's something what each individual believe in its own. Statistic, regression, distribution is not so simple that you just say 6 matches with a lot of goals then 6 matches without goals. I always compare current patterns with historical patterns. And I am searching for deviations. Sometimes deviations could show what would happen, sometimes not. I think and also my experienced (not just from betting, also from forex, industry...) tell me that everyone must interpret data in its own. I think that if predictions of someone could reflect to new highest mark, to new record then perhaps should be careful. Thanks nioreh for explanation. I totally understand your point. But about wasting my time and money. As you know the world average for betting, trading (not just sport trader also forex traders and others...) is that 98% of punters/traders are losing and only 2% of people are in (big) profit. So also "regular" punters (punter who make deep analyses for team sheets, form, players, managers, style of play...) could waste money and time if they are not enough good. The same is with statistic. It's not so easy, but when you mastering data and techniques you can success. I am totally sure about that.
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Re: Group C: Japan vs Columbia > Tues 24th June Perhaps the only thing: If you watch running average graphs (for example of last 6, of last 10; for teams or for tournaments; for various outcomes) it's quite similar as graphs in forex (for example GBP/USD). It's all in patterns but it's very hard to predict what will happen. If you look in past you could be very smart and say "I should to right that in that time". But in current situation is very hard to predict future. Only data with tools and experiences can help. Nothing else. And the truth is that football results are in boundaries more then you can imagine. You have extremes (perhaps whole season in one league) but in general you know what to expect. (and the same is valid also for currencies and stock markets) It's just the question are you capable to interpret good enough to make profit.

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Re: Group C: Japan vs Columbia > Tues 24th June

Colombia @ 2.20 (Bet Victor)
Deserved win for Colombia! The South Americans didn't play at their normal fast tempo, but Japan was simply inferior in class and very naive and unbalanced team. As I expected, they were leaving plenty of space for Colombia to hit them on the break, and even though Colombian attacking players didn't show the highest level of concentration, which they normally show in a more competitive environment, it was still more than enough to win with ease. I feel Colombia could have scored a few more if they put more effort into this game. Japan tried hard, but they simply lack class and their physical inferiority is a big disadvantage for them. Although they attacked in numbers and Colombia wasn't very sharp when defending, the Japanese could rarely make a good breakthrough and were losing with ease all the physical challenges, which made them so vulnerable to counter-attacks. World Cup 2014 Stats: 18 Bets, 12 Wins, 6 Losses, 1 Void + 6.05 Units (1 Unit per bet)
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Re: Group C: Japan vs Colombia > Tues 24th June

Poor Japan' date=' thought they deserved a draw at least.[/quote'] Are you joking :lol...they are the weakest, most athletically pathetic team I have ever seen, most of them couldn't beat their way out of a paper bag.
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Re: Group C: Japan vs Colombia > Tues 24th June

Are you joking :lol...they are the weakest' date=' most athletically pathetic team I have ever seen, most of them couldn't beat their way out of a paper bag.[/quote'] A little bit harsh mate, Japan are a good side but have a very poor defence. They had 23 attempts on goal, was set up perfectly for Colombia to hit them on the counter. They played Greece off the park the other night, and funny enough Greece are the ones who go through, just the nature of the game. There are worse sides in this competition, that's for sure.
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Re: Group C: Japan vs Colombia > Tues 24th June

Are you joking :lol...they are the weakest' date=' most athletically pathetic team I have ever seen, most of them couldn't beat their way out of a paper bag.[/quote']Nope, thought they played quite well, and should have scored 3 at the least, they are dire at defending i'll give you that.
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