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Germany v Ghana > Saturday June 21st


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[TABLE=class: couponTable, width: 617]

[TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Germany v Ghana (20:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.33[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]6[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]12[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.00 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]
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Re: Germany v Ghana > Saturday June 21st 5pts Over 3 goals 1.95 Bet365 I think we will see goals in this game, in keeping with the rest of the tournament. Germany look to have the players to expose the Ghanaian defence but Ghana look a threat going forward too with their pace and power so this should be an entertaining game and with Ghana needing to get something from it, it could well be a more open game than we usually get with Germany too. I think we’ll see three or more goals in this one. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/germany-vs-ghana-betting-goals-should-come-regularly-in-fortaleza

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Re: Germany v Ghana > Saturday June 21st After Germanys game against Portugal and Ghanas game against USA i cannot see anything else then another Germany win here, but the odds for 1x2 was to low for me so i started to check other markets. It looks like Muller have hit a perfect form for the World Cup and started with 3 goal against a strong Portugal. The whole team did a amazing game and showed that this year it might be Germanys World Cup (again?). Ghana had problems with USA and wasnt even awake when the game started as Dempsey did make a fast goal and did enter the top 5 fastest goal in WC. Germany is not USA, they are stronger and faster and play more tactical then the USA does. I think Muller will score in this game so when i did find that WilliamHill only gave 1.57 i found it very low. Then i did go to Betsson and found that they gave 1.90 on Muller anytime goalscorer So my bet in this game will be Muller to score anytime @ 1.90* (Betsson**) * After i did place my bet i found out that Unibet and Nordicbet gives 2.05 ** Betsson have a WC Extra on this game (and any game that is about goalscorer)

When you bet on players to score in any WC match, you will be rewarded with double winnings when the player scores twice – and we'll give you triple winnings for a hat trick!
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Re: Germany v Ghana > Saturday June 21st reports of a player revolt in the ghana camp after the usa defeat. namely boateng not happy that essien was on bench. could anyone substantiate these rumours? these african teams are so mentally/emotionally fragile. could play right into the hands of germany handicappers

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Re: Germany v Ghana > Saturday June 21st I always wait for previous match for my favourites pick for any match. But I am already sure I will bet Germany win to nil IF Argentina won't win to nil or even won't win at all. Reason is quite simple - Odds are quite good (and fair) and especially fact the there is lacking of matches with clear favourite to win to nil. Last clear favourite to win to nil was Germany against Portugal. Unless Argentina can break that black series for favourites.

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Re: Germany v Ghana > Saturday June 21st

I always wait for previous match for my favourites pick for any match. But I am already sure I will bet Germany win to nil IF Argentina won't win to nil or even won't win at all. Reason is quite simple - Odds are quite good (and fair) and especially fact the there is lacking of matches with clear favourite to win to nil. Last clear favourite to win to nil was Germany against Portugal. Unless Argentina can break that black series for favourites.
Are you saying you think the result of Germany's game will be affected by the result of Argentina's ? :unsure
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Re: Germany v Ghana > Saturday June 21st

Are you saying you think the result of Germany's game will be affected by the result of Argentina's ? :unsure
Yes and no! If you predict matches by analysing players, managers, referees, motivation ... Then of course not. F But on other hand - how often matches are going exactly by those predictions? I think not very often. Since we would have a lot of 100% picks. But majority punters are in red numbers. We have surprises and strange results. But all those outcomes at the end make statistic and averages. And those are more balanced as you think. For example: did you really believe the high average of scoring goal from first 10 matches (3.4 per match) would last until final match? And then we see: Brazil-Mexico 0-0, Italy-Costa Rica 0-1 .... And averages dropped. How many of you really predicts those outcomes? And I am 100% sure no one from German squad will say => look Argentina conceded, we mustn't. But statistically all matches and all outcomes from single match affected to each other, since averages are calculated from all of them. It's hard do understand and I will not argue with nobody that I am totally wrong. Because from one viewpoint I am of course totally wrong. Understandable?
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Re: Germany v Ghana > Saturday June 21st

Yes and no! If you predict matches by analysing players, managers, referees, motivation ... Then of course not. F But on other hand - how often matches are going exactly by those predictions? I think not very often. Since we would have a lot of 100% picks. But majority punters are in red numbers. We have surprises and strange results. But all those outcomes at the end make statistic and averages. And those are more balanced as you think. For example: did you really believe the high average of scoring goal from first 10 matches (3.4 per match) would last until final match? And then we see: Brazil-Mexico 0-0, Italy-Costa Rica 0-1 .... And averages dropped. How many of you really predicts those outcomes? And I am 100% sure no one from German squad will say => look Argentina conceded, we mustn't. But statistically all matches and all outcomes from single match affected to each other, since averages are calculated from all of them. It's hard do understand and I will not argue with nobody that I am totally wrong. Because from one viewpoint I am of course totally wrong. Understandable?
we have a term for this. Regression to the mean. However, the hard part is getting on the right end of a streak. Let me tell you that the overs streak could easily have gone on for a few more games and maybe even the whole tournament. Stats average themselves out over the course of hundreds of games. Not just a handful.
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Re: Germany v Ghana > Saturday June 21st

I always wait for previous match for my favourites pick for any match. But I am already sure I will bet Germany win to nil IF Argentina won't win to nil or even won't win at all. Reason is quite simple - Odds are quite good (and fair) and especially fact the there is lacking of matches with clear favourite to win to nil. Last clear favourite to win to nil was Germany against Portugal. Unless Argentina can break that black series for favourites.
Wasnt last favourite to win to nil Croatia against Cameroon? Specailly if reading betting forums, this forum included, alot of player did predict Croatia win to nil and as far as i know Croatia was the favourite to win there.
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Re: Germany v Ghana > Saturday June 21st

we have a term for this. Regression to the mean. However' date=' the hard part is getting on the right end of a streak. Let me tell you that the overs streak could easily have gone on for a few more games and maybe even the whole tournament. Stats average themselves out over the course of hundreds of games. Not just a handful.[/quote'] Could! Important is to estimated how many chance are that could happen. And then you can calculated how many money you can risk and what reward is possible (risk:reward ratio!). And then decide what to do. As many of you (us) yesterday lost money on Italy, you can easily lost money on statistic model. I think the best way is to combine both methods. Check personal predictions and then compare with statistical model. As you know sometimes could be 1.15 good value (if you estimated eg 95% chance to this outcome will happen).
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Re: Germany v Ghana > Saturday June 21st

Wasnt last favourite to win to nil Croatia against Cameroon? Specailly if reading betting forums, this forum included, alot of player did predict Croatia win to nil and as far as i know Croatia was the favourite to win there.
Based on odds it's true. I should add clear favourites and "big name" - so those fixtures where everyone on street know who is clear favourite. And also if I consider this match is lacking of wins to nil. Don't you think?
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Re: Germany v Ghana > Saturday June 21st I think Ghana have excellent chance to score a goal tonight, so I fancy the BTTS. The German defense has shown in the past year that it is always prone to some silly errors, especially in games when Germany is considered big favorite and often there could be some drop in concentration. Just recall the 4:4 against Sweden, the 3:3 friendly against Paraguay in Germany and the 4:3 loss against USA, as well as the recent 2:2 against pathetic Cameroon. I know most of these games were friendlies, but Germany plays very competitive in such games. For Ghana it is match which they cannot afford to lose and as almost certainly Germany will find the net, Ghana will be forced to push for a goal. Unlike African teams like Cameroon, Nigeria and Algeria, Ghana attacks at relatively high pace and shows much more tactical maturity. They have enough class up-front to harm a German defense that might lose concentration at some stages of the games. BTTS @ 1.80 (Bet 365)

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Re: Germany v Ghana > Saturday June 21st Few points as to why I don't think this is a forgone conclusion;

  • It's in Fortaleza, temperatures could reach 30 degrees. We saw Italy struggle in the heat yesterday against a team more acclimatised to the conditions.
  • Ghana were a little unlucky against USA, they were the better team for a lot of that match. That form doesn't look as bad since Costa Rica beat Uruguay and Italy, and Mexico drew with Brazil. CONCACAF is much stronger than anyone anticipated.
  • The 2 other games at Estadio Castelao produced upsets with Brazil drawing to Mexico and Uruguay getting beat to Costa Rica.
  • I'm not reading too much into Germanys game against Portugal. I predicted a comfortable Germany win there but to me there are still problems with that team and I do think they'll struggle to unlock defences in certain games. Teams will now set up to deal with the false number 9 better and having 11 men on the pitch will help.

I can see a slow start to the game with both teams looking to conserve energy. Ghana will be happy to keep it tight for as long as possible then maybe go for the win later on. I quite like the half time draw @ 9/5 with sportingbet

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Re: Germany v Ghana > Saturday June 21st Over 1.5 HT goals @2.25 In their last WC game we saw a very strong Germany side who put 3 goals past Portugal's GK before HT and I think it can be similar here - they want to get the job done quickly and so I think they will be attacking from the first minute against Ghana, who, on the other hand, have quite some attacking potential themselves, as they showed against the US. This game should be no different than most games during this tournament and I expect goals

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Re: Germany v Ghana > Saturday June 21st In last 7 matches we saw only one match with first goal before 30' min. As global averages show that there are about 50-55% matches with first goal in 1-30' it's quite significant deviation. Maybe it's good to take in consider possibility of early goal. I will take trade at BetFair. I will back over 1.5 in 15', and again in 25' and again in 35'. If goal come before 15' I will just watch the match. If come later then I will decide on match progress if I close my trade or stay with backing over 1.5.

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Re: Germany v Ghana > Saturday June 21st Last game cost me, really need to re-coup here. Playing a chunk on Germany to win, then also a bit on BTTS Wondering about Muller to score and Germany to win, EV's on WH seem decent (10/11 on others I checked)

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Re: Germany v Ghana > Saturday June 21st

I know the feeling - but that's a dangerous game :eek
Tbh I only just starting getting into sports betting last Saturday when £5 got me £60 on Italy 2-1. I went up to £90, now down to £30 haha. It's been really fun either way and if I lose it all, I'm just back where I started haha, aim was to get to £100 then bank.
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Re: Germany v Ghana > Saturday June 21st

Few points as to why I don't think this is a forgone conclusion;
  • It's in Fortaleza, temperatures could reach 30 degrees. We saw Italy struggle in the heat yesterday against a team more acclimatised to the conditions.
  • Ghana were a little unlucky against USA, they were the better team for a lot of that match. That form doesn't look as bad since Costa Rica beat Uruguay and Italy, and Mexico drew with Brazil. CONCACAF is much stronger than anyone anticipated.
  • The 2 other games at Estadio Castelao produced upsets with Brazil drawing to Mexico and Uruguay getting beat to Costa Rica.
  • I'm not reading too much into Germanys game against Portugal. I predicted a comfortable Germany win there but to me there are still problems with that team and I do think they'll struggle to unlock defences in certain games. Teams will now set up to deal with the false number 9 better and having 11 men on the pitch will help.

I can see a slow start to the game with both teams looking to conserve energy. Ghana will be happy to keep it tight for as long as possible then maybe go for the win later on. I quite like the half time draw @ 9/5 with sportingbet

:cow This second half has been brilliant, full credit to both teams, they're going for it.
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Re: Germany v Ghana > Saturday June 21st

I've also placed a bet @ muller to score first, 2,20 > 8,80.. How much do you guys usually bet? Like 10 euros per bet, 1 euro per bet?
On this match I laid Germany for £30 (£11.40 liability), bet £20 on Ghana +2, and £20 on BTTS.
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Re: Germany v Ghana > Saturday June 21st

5pts Over 3 goals 1.95 Bet365 I think we will see goals in this game, in keeping with the rest of the tournament. Germany look to have the players to expose the Ghanaian defence but Ghana look a threat going forward too with their pace and power so this should be an entertaining game and with Ghana needing to get something from it, it could well be a more open game than we usually get with Germany too. I think we’ll see three or more goals in this one. good analysis. spot on mate. made myself a few quid.
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Re: Germany v Ghana > Saturday June 21st

BTTS @ 1.80 (Bet 365)
Nice and entertaining game in the 2nd half. My impressions from Germany didn't lie - German defense was indeed very vulnerable and lacking concentration and could have easily conceded more than 2 goals. Congrats to Ghana for outstanding performance! World Cup 2014 Stats: 13 Bets, 9 Wins, 3 Losses, 1 Void + 6.25 Units (1 Unit per bet)
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