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Aidymac

Group D - Italy v Costa Rica - Friday June 20th

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Re: Group D - Italy v Costa Rica - Friday June 20th 3pts Italy to win to nil 6/4 Betfred I think Italy will win this match because I don’t see them defending as woefully as Uruguay did against Costa Rica but whether they have the pace in their backline to keep out the Costa Rican’s we will have to wait and see. I don’t think Italy will let Costa Rica surprise them here and Costa Rica will need to play even better than they did against Uruguay to win this one. I expect the Italians to be too strong though. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/italy-vs-costa-rica-betting-italy-unlikely-to-be-surprised-by-costa-rica

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Re: Group D - Italy v Costa Rica - Friday June 20th Draw @ 4.20 (Unibet) for a 0.25 stake 1-1 @ 8.00 (Unibet) for a 0.1 stake Has to be a big banana skin, doesn't it? Well it surely is, at least for me. A draw would also suit both teams, Italy are never worried about who they face next, and ending up 1st or 2nd, Italy will surely have enough to beat any of the teams coming out of Group C. Yes, even Colombia. A draw for Costa Rica will also ultimately mean that they England will absolutely need to win against them, discarding any GD effect. We all know Italy tends to underperform against weaker opponents, it is not something new. Even at friendlies before the WC, they were awfully underperforming and drawing against below top-100 FIFA rankings team (Liechtenstein), but then they get to the WC, face harder opponents, and usually just don't miss. But after such a performance against England (even if end-to-end), Italy should be on their way to relaxing a bit too much against a surprising Costa Rica, that will approach this match as nothing to lose. They already surprised the whole world, they are with absolutely no pressure at all to steal the show here, and they would buy a draw from this one as well if they could.

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Re: Group D - Italy v Costa Rica - Friday June 20th Think the performance from Suarez today will act as a motivator for Italy to get the job done here. It's not do or die but they face a Uruguay side hungry for points in the last match. So the Italian mentallity will be, "why take a chance?". Get 6 points and go into the final match as group leaders. Simple. After the horror show that was the 2010 group stage in South Africa where they drew with New Zealand, I don't think they'll be taking the Central Americans for granted. I think the lesson was well and truly learned. They don't want to go up against Cavani and Suarez on their home continent and needing a result. They'll want to avoid that at all costs. Italy like to make teams run around and chase the ball a lot. Then when those teams show signs of slowing down, Italy become a little more proactive and start to turn the screws on the opposition. Costa Rica will have to be very tactical here because if they come out full of energy, positivity and running, then Italy will use it against them and choke them out of the contest. But how sophisticated are Costa Rica tactically? The world saw what they did to Uruguay so the element of surprise is gone.

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Re: Group D - Italy v Costa Rica - Friday June 20th I think Costa Rica is well organized, also Prandelli said that. Heat and humidity can be a factor here, but maybe will emerge in the next sage eith 2 more matches on legs, and few days to recover. For Costa Rica is occasion of life; they will die on the field today. Italy must be cinic and very tactically disciplined and gain a 2-0 victory in order to be quite safe in the last match when can afford to lose and make some turnover. I think it is feasible for Italy to win today with EH -1 @ 2,45 Wh stake 4. Odds are however going up for italy.

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Re: Group D - Italy v Costa Rica - Friday June 20th Italy Costarica X-1 (HT-FT) @ 4.10 Italy are just too expirience team for big tournaments. Like in last few years everebody saying that they are not that strong like 20,30 years ago but somehow they know how to play and they allways come at least to 1/4 finals. I just love their midfield with Pirlo,De Rossi and Marchisio , players with big expirience who can easily score. Expecting slow first half but in the end Italy victory as some guys mention before they dont wanna miss chance qualify now as they will face Suarez and co. in 3rd round.

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Re: Group D - Italy v Costa Rica - Friday June 20th Am I missing something here? Two of you have mentioned Italy qualifying for the next round tonight but I don't think that's possible whatever the result is it?

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Re: Group D - Italy v Costa Rica - Friday June 20th

Am I missing something here? Two of you have mentioned Italy qualifying for the next round tonight but I don't think that's possible whatever the result is it?
You are right, Italy cannot qualify with a win here. A win for Italy today would result in the following: Italy 6pts, Costa Rica 3pts, Uruguay 3pts, England 0pts In the next round of games, if Uruguay beats Italy and Costa Rica beats England, there would be a 3 way on 6pts and it would go down to goal difference if I am not mistaken in which case Italy can very well be knocked out.

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Re: Group D - Italy v Costa Rica - Friday June 20th

Am I missing something here? Two of you have mentioned Italy qualifying for the next round tonight but I don't think that's possible whatever the result is it?
This group is very open at the moment As slizorn says three teams can end up with 6 points and also there is a way that three teams can end up with 3 points, if Italy beats Uruguay in the last round while England beats Costa Rica, then there will be a fight about 2nd place with goal different

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Re: Group D - Italy v Costa Rica - Friday June 20th My call is 2-0 for Italy, with small cover on 1-0. Yesterday matches produced 1 under and 2 over with just 6 scored goals, so 2.00 scored goals per match. Statistically is not quite logical. Current statistics show 13% of 0-0 matches (only in Italy we saw higher percentage of scoreless matches. On other hand we have 74% matches ended with over and as I said yesterday is drastic over averagely. Reason of that is big deficit of matches with 1 and 2 goals - just 13% (compared with overall average of 46%). So or it is over or 0-0. I am quite sure we will see matches with 1 or 2 goals, of course no one can predict when exactly. So I will look for every upcoming match for those results. Odds are high and bring better value as betting just on match winner or even as "win to nil". That statistical analysis is valid also for next matches in case Italy do not win with 1-0 or 2-0. Today matches are all candidates for those scores (France, Ecuador - maybe there also cover 1-1).

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Re: Group D - Italy v Costa Rica - Friday June 20th How about offside betting in this game? I have a feeling that Italy will be the attacking team in this game and as this group looks like it might go to a goal different mode on who will and who wont take the step to the next round, a attack play is a must. Checking some stats on offsides with this two teams Italy is a winner when it comes to running in offsides Offside stats from last three (taken from Soccerway.com where they had stats) England - Italy 0-7 Fluminense - Italy 0-4 Italy - Luxembourg 5-0 Uruguay - Costa Rica 5-2 Costa Rica - Japan 7-3 Costa Rica - Paraguay 0-1 Betsson had a good odds on over/under offsides in this game but have dropped down so checking other bookies to see if i can find anything good enought to bet. Maybe offside HCP on Italy?

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Re: Group D - Italy v Costa Rica - Friday June 20th Costa Rica will want to at least draw this game as will give them a far greater chance to qualify, so I expect a cagey first half, possibly Italy scoring 1 goal in second half then shutting up shop. Back 1-0 6/1 Ladbrokes

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Re: Group D - Italy v Costa Rica - Friday June 20th Strongly rooting for Italy to win for obvious reasons, but think based on the first game Costa Rica are overvalued in the market. Italy look really impressive and are not guarenteed to go through whatever happens. The more they win by the safer they are. But in a competition such as this teams want to keep winning and i can't imagine being any situation of Italy not trying, except possibly settling for the draw Vs Uruguay in the last 20 mins but thats a problem for another time. Italy have a very good defence and should well be able to break through Costa Rica's defensive line. Pirlo should be able to pull the strings again and Italy should win comfortably. I hope for more than just monetary reasons. Italy to win 4/7 Bet365 Italy -1 6/4 Bet 365 Italy to win to nil 6/4 Bet365 Italy 3-0 12/1 William Hill

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Re: Group D - Italy v Costa Rica - Friday June 20th I've had a look at the scenarios, and I THINK this is right ... Costa Rica will qualify if they win, because only one of Italy and Uruguay could then finish ahead of them. A draw would suit Costa Rica a lot more than Italy, because they would retain first place in the group on goal difference. They would then qualify UNLESS a)Italy and Uruguay draw, and b)they lose to England by about 3 goals or more - this would mean Italy and Uruguay would finish above Costa Rica on goal difference, with all three on 4 points. If Italy win, it would take them to lose to Uruguay AND Costa Rica to beat England to stand a chance of not qualifying. So a draw would leave both well-placed, and as long as Italy didn't then lose to Uruguay, both would qualify, but a draw is much more attractive to Costa Rica than Italy, and Italy have more incentive to win today. Wiki page: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_FIFA_World_Cup#Group_D

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Re: Group D - Italy v Costa Rica - Friday June 20th

MPLouis can you send me a PM please' date=' sorry for off topic[/quote'] I think you need to post 50 times before PM is enabled :)

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Re: Group D - Italy v Costa Rica - Friday June 20th I'd tend to agree that Italy should win this match. They're simply too strong for Costa Rica, they show alot of heart but their main problem will be Italia's defense which has always been pretty strong. I can't see this game going any other way than 1:0 or 2:0, unless Italy plans to draw this and win vs Uruguay, but why take the chance? So my bets here are: 2pts Correct score: 1:0 @6,5-7 2pts Correct score: 2:0 @7-8 5 pts Italy to win to nil @2.5 2 pts Italy v Rica X/1 @4 1 pt Balotelli anytime goalscorer @2

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Re: Group D - Italy v Costa Rica - Friday June 20th

I like to find a bet which returns me evens on my stake and I think I found a beauty Italt team bookings over1.5 6/5 @Bet365
Do you have any reasoning for this? Especially as Italy have had only one player booked in their last 4 games.

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Re: Group D - Italy v Costa Rica - Friday June 20th

I like to find a bet which returns me evens on my stake and I think I found a beauty Italt team bookings over1.5 6/5 @Bet365
In their last 5 games combined Italy players have only received 2 bookings. Only 1 game in their last 12 have Italy reached the 1.5.

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Re: Group D - Italy v Costa Rica - Friday June 20th 5pts Both teams to score @ 2.00 Bet365 At work so haven't had much time to look into this match till about 5 minutes ago. The one thing that stands out to me is both teams to score. Italy have conceded in 9 out of their last 10 played games. 7 out of those 10 games have seen both teams score. The last 4 games in a row for Costa Rica have seen both teams score and in those 4 games they have scored 7 goals themselves. As a result I fancy both teams to find the back of the net today with medium-ish stakes.

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Re: Group D - Italy v Costa Rica - Friday June 20th Italy G. Buffon A. Barzagli G. Chiellini M. Darmian I. Abate D. De Rossi A. Pirlo Thiago Motta C. Marchisio A. Candreva M. Balotelli Costa Rica K. Navas M. Umaña J. Díaz Ó. Duarte C. Gamboa G. González C. Borges C. Bolaños Y. Tejeda B. Ruiz J. Campbell

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Re: Group D - Italy v Costa Rica - Friday June 20th

New to betting' date=' what do the points (pts) mean ? Percentage from total bankroll ?[/quote'] Welcome! Usually pts refers to a strength of a bet. For me I measure it out of 10pts and sometimes go over, only when I am pretty confident that it is a good bet.

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Re: Group D - Italy v Costa Rica - Friday June 20th

Welcome! Usually pts refers to a strength of a bet. For me I measure it out of 10pts and sometimes go over' date=' only when I am pretty confident that it is a good bet.[/quote'] Does this practice have a name, so I can research about it ?

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Re: Group D - Italy v Costa Rica - Friday June 20th

Does this practice have a name' date=' so I can research about it ?[/quote'] I think its a unwrighten betting rule For ex. on a swedish bettingforum many uses 1-5 unit when wrighting bets Italy to win 4 units @ 1.90 You can say that each unit is 20% so in the ex. above you are 80% sure that Italy will win. Italy to win €10 @ 1.90 I bet €10 on Italy win dosnt say anything about how sure i am about my bet as people dosn't know how much my betting wallet is totaly. As you see about the ex above its easier for other betters to see pts or units then moneyvalue when they wanna follow you on a bet. EDIT: 5 units isnt your total wallet, i usually use 10% of my total wallet when betting. So when i say 5 units on XX to win @ 3.20 its 10% of my total wallet

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