Lorenzo's Soccer System

[lorenzo.]

Hi, guys! I game up with a little system. I am not very good with math or all kind of formulas, but I'll give it a try. I haven't back tested it much, only some random rounds of football here and there. Since now, I'm gonna PAPER TRAIL it here in SP. About the system - It is based on the last 30 league games for both teams (last 30 home games for the home team and vice versa). Plus last 5-10 H2H (depends how many H2H they have). H2H games go the same way - only the games played on the home team stadium. I will calculate "my odds" for the games and compaire them to bookies odds and if there is a positive difference I will pick the game. I do not check team news or suspensions etc - only statistics. At the moment I'm doing only Brazil Serie A and MLS, I may add Norweigan league (depends how much time I have). If the system goes well and I have the stamina to go longer, I'll add European big leagues next season as well. Level stakes Starting bank: 50 pts Every bet 1 pt Yesterday I didn't have time to create a topic here, but the first results were very good in Serie A. Then again, 7 bets do not show anything, but it just gave me a better mood to start the thread here :D Anyway, here we go: 31.05 Seattle - Real Salt Lake (MLS): Pick Draw @ 3.82 (Pinnacle) 30.05 Bahia - Santos (Serie A): Pick Santos +0.5 @ 1.71 (Pinnacle)

[lorenzo.]

Re: Lorenzo's Soccer System

30.05 Bahia - Santos (Serie A): Pick Santos +0.5 @ 1.71 (Pinnacle) :clap Bahia 0-2 Santos

And we are off with a winner. I'm gonna share 3 more picks for MLS, the Brazil picks will come later or tomorrow. 01.06 Chicago - LA Galaxy (MLS): Pick Chicago +0 @ 2.21 (SBObet) 01.06 Toronto - Columbus (MLS): Pick Columbus +0.5 @ 1.81 (188bet) 01.06 Dallas - San Jose (MLS): Pick Draw @ 3.61 (5dimes) -edit- More bets 01.06 Cruzeiro - Flamengo (Serie A): Pick Cruzeiro @ 1.7 (Marathon Bet) 01.06 Gremio - Palmeiras (Serie A): Pick Palmeiras +1 @ 1.67 (Marathon Bet) 01.06 Sao Paolo - Atletico Mineiro (Serie A): Pick Sao Paolo @ 2.15 (Marathon Bet) 01.06 Corinthians - Botafogo (Serie A): Pick Botafogo +1 @ 1.71 (Pinnacle) and Botafogo +0.5 @ 2.14 (Pinnacle) 02.06 Portland - Vancouver (MLS): Pick Portland +0 @ 1.58 (Pinnacle)

[lorenzo.]

Re: Lorenzo's Soccer System

31.05 Seattle - Real Salt Lake (MLS): Pick Draw @ 3.82 (Pinnacle) :( Seattle 4-0 Real Salt Lake

01.06 Chicago - LA Galaxy (MLS): Pick Chicago +0 @ 2.21 (SBObet) :unsure Chicago 1-1 LA Galaxy 01.06 Toronto - Columbus (MLS): Pick Columbus +0.5 @ 1.81 (188bet) :( Toronto 3-2 Columbus 01.06 Dallas - San Jose (MLS): Pick Draw @ 3.61 (5dimes) :( Dallas 1-2 San Jose 01.06 Cruzeiro - Flamengo (Serie A): Pick Cruzeiro @ 1.7 (Marathon Bet) :D Cruzeiro 3-0 Flamengo 01.06 Gremio - Palmeiras (Serie A): Pick Palmeiras +1 @ 1.67 (Marathon Bet) :D Gremio 0-0 Palmeiras 01.06 Sao Paolo - Atletico Mineiro (Serie A): Pick Sao Paolo @ 2.15 (Marathon Bet) :D Sao Paolo 2-1 Atletico Mineiro 01.06 Corinthians - Botafogo (Serie A): Pick Botafogo +1 @ 1.71 (Pinnacle) :D and Botafogo +0.5 @ 2.14 (Pinnacle) :D Corinthians 1-1 Botafogo

Very nice picks from Serie A, MLS was a let down though... Still: Starting bank: 50 units Current bank: 52.1 units ROI: 4.2% No of bets: 10 Won: 6 Lost: 3 Void: 1 Strike rate: 60% Total Staked: 11 units Profit: 2.1 units Yield: 18.9% Average odds: 2.19 If someone would be kind enough to tell me how to copy data from excel spreadsheet to here, I would appriciate it a lot ;)

[lunatism]

Re: Lorenzo's Soccer System

Very nice picks from Serie A, MLS was a let down though... Still: Starting bank: 50 units Current bank: 52.1 units ROI: 4.2% No of bets: 10 Won: 6 Lost: 3 Void: 1 Strike rate: 60% Total Staked: 11 units Profit: 2.1 units Yield: 18.9% Average odds: 2.19 If someone would be kind enough to tell me how to copy data from excel spreadsheet to here, I would appriciate it a lot ;)

Good start :ok Couple of things - first, you aren't supposed to edit posts that contain selections, all three of your posts are containing or referring to selections, and they all break that rule :spank Second, copying from Excel...the easiest way that i've found to do that is to select the table in Excel, copy (CTRL-C or whatever you normally click) and then open up an instance of MSPaint and paste it. It will return the table exactly as it appears in Excel. You can then save it as an image and upload it here. I've taken to doing that, because in the past I had a lot of problems uploading tables and on different browsers, it would appear differently. Saving as an image guarantees that your data will show the same wherever You said that you hadn't backtested it much...but that means you backtested it a little bit, right? What kind of results are you expecting from this long term? Any reason why you started off with US & Brazil (aside from them being active at the moment)?

[lorenzo.]

Re: Lorenzo's Soccer System

Good start :ok Couple of things - first, you aren't supposed to edit posts that contain selections, all three of your posts are containing or referring to selections, and they all break that rule :spank Second, copying from Excel...the easiest way that i've found to do that is to select the table in Excel, copy (CTRL-C or whatever you normally click) and then open up an instance of MSPaint and paste it. It will return the table exactly as it appears in Excel. You can then save it as an image and upload it here. I've taken to doing that, because in the past I had a lot of problems uploading tables and on different browsers, it would appear differently. Saving as an image guarantees that your data will show the same wherever You said that you hadn't backtested it much...but that means you backtested it a little bit, right? What kind of results are you expecting from this long term? Any reason why you started off with US & Brazil (aside from them being active at the moment)?

Thanks for the excel advice, lunatism. And sorry. I thought I can't edit posts with picks AFTER the events had taken place. But good to know, I'll stay away from editing them. About backtesting ... I only backtested it on 42 games just because I'm no excel expert and entering all the data to the spreadsheets etc takes me a long time. Results for Serie A were awesome, MLS not too good. But example of 42 games isn't obviously enough to make any kind of conclusions, so for starters I'll keep on going with MLS as well since it is only paper trailing. Later I may drop MLS if the results continue to let us down. Why US and Brazil? Pretty much because they are active atm and I have always kept an eye on these leagues in addition to European top leagues. No other reason ;) -edit- Lol. Editing again. You asked what kind of results I am expecting? The unofficial yield is 34.8% and ROI 12.5% after 52 picks. But that is obviously not gonna stay like that :D I would be happy with a long-term yield between 5-10%

[lunatism]

Re: Lorenzo's Soccer System

You asked what kind of results I am expecting? The unofficial yield is 34.8% and ROI 12.5% after 52 picks. But that is obviously not gonna stay like that :D I would be happy with a long-term yield between 5-10%

Sure you're right - small sample size, but sounds promising. All that you're using is results? I guess getting the results is the easy part, but the H2H make it tricky? What happens if the last 30 games includes matches in a lower/higher league? (you don't have to answer...just wondering). And are your H2H only in the league too? How far do your H2H go back? Is there a year limit on that?

[lorenzo.]

Re: Lorenzo's Soccer System

Sure you're right - small sample size, but sounds promising. All that you're using is results? I guess getting the results is the easy part, but the H2H make it tricky? What happens if the last 30 games includes matches in a lower/higher league? (you don't have to answer...just wondering). And are your H2H only in the league too? How far do your H2H go back? Is there a year limit on that?

Yes, only results. If the last 30 games include lower/higher league games then I just skip this game - different level, different results. There is no certain year limit on H2H games, but I prefer not to go further than 8-10 years. And so far I have included cup H2H games as well as league ones ;)

[lunatism]

Re: Lorenzo's Soccer System

Yes, only results. If the last 30 games include lower/higher league games then I just skip this game - different level, different results. There is no certain year limit on H2H games, but I prefer not to go further than 8-10 years. And so far I have included cup H2H games as well as league ones ;)

why did you choose 30 games? where did you get your data parameter ideas from? (i ask this because it sounds similar to what i've read on SoccerWidow) Have you looked at the difference between including and discounting H2H games? (ditto for H2H cup games) Final question (for now :p), are you using poisson?

[lorenzo.]

Re: Lorenzo's Soccer System

why did you choose 30 games? where did you get your data parameter ideas from? (i ask this because it sounds similar to what i've read on SoccerWidow) Have you looked at the difference between including and discounting H2H games? (ditto for H2H cup games) Final question (for now :p), are you using poisson?

Yes, I know SoccerWidows site as well. But it was too complicated for me :D Too much math. Not using poisson either. 30 games is just random idea. I have been betting for years (mostly for fun) and always tried to figure out some kind of system. Never did successfully though :D I have tried 10, 20, 30 games etc. H2H only, combined to home/away forms etc. As I said before, I am not a big math dude nor excel expert. The calculations here are fairly simple, otherwise I wouldn't manage to do it :D But I will not reveal the whole system, because if (and that's a really big IF) it will be more or less successful, it would lose it's edge in the end. But thanks for the interest :)

[lorenzo.]

Re: Lorenzo's Soccer System And I haven't looked at the difference between including and discounting H2H games. It all would take too much time at the moment. Maybe I will at later stage. At the moment I will just continue doing it the way I have so far.

[lunatism]

Re: Lorenzo's Soccer System

...I will not reveal the whole system...But thanks for the interest :)

I'm not after your system, just the logic behind your numbers, because if 30 works, why not 35/45/50, etc. I look at it like this, on it's own, a specific number is not magical, there has to be something further than simply "30 games played", otherwise, what's the difference between 25 wins out of 30 and 38/45 and 63/75? A few decimal places (if you're working on %). You might find that 30 games works in one league, but 15 or 45 in another. It's something i've looked into before, nothing conclusive. All i'd say is that the 6 game form tables are not very useful when it comes to judging what's around the corner ;) With the h2h, i've seen a few reports on sites dealing with soccermetrics (don't ask to me to try and remember where they are though!) that suggest that the further away (in time) that it happened, the less significance that it would hold towards any specific fixture. Given that you say you aren't proficient with maths or excel, i presume that you are not adjusting for time? So a game that happened 30 matches ago (which, if you look at some of the smaller leagues, could be almost 365 days) is just as relevant as a game that happened 3 days ago? If you decided to only look at league matches (for the h2h results, which makes sense, given that teams generally (or at least in recent years) use the cup competitions as an opportunity to see younger talent and give their regular performers a break), you could just download 10 years worth of data from Football-data.co.uk, and look for all the H2H's in that, right? That would mean that you could backtest ALL the leagues that they cater for. Not Brazil or USA, but every major league in Europe, and some of the smaller ones too... I would be interested to see the results of your backtesting...

[lunatism]

Re: Lorenzo's Soccer System

And I haven't looked at the difference between including and discounting H2H games. It all would take too much time at the moment. Maybe I will at later stage. At the moment I will just continue doing it the way I have so far.

it's possible to save an awful lot of time by ignoring cup games, if you collect your data from Football-data and just look at league games...since, that's all they have :D

[lorenzo.]

Re: Lorenzo's Soccer System

I'm not after your system' date= just the logic behind your numbers, because if 30 works, why not 35/45/50, etc. I look at it like this, on it's own, a specific number is not magical, there has to be something further than simply "30 games played", otherwise, what's the difference between 25 wins out of 30 and 38/45 and 63/75? A few decimal places (if you're working on %). You might find that 30 games works in one league, but 15 or 45 in another. It's something i've looked into before, nothing conclusive. All i'd say is that the 6 game form tables are not very useful when it comes to judging what's around the corner ;) With the h2h, i've seen a few reports on sites dealing with soccermetrics (don't ask to me to try and remember where they are though!) that suggest that the further away (in time) that it happened, the less significance that it would hold towards any specific fixture. Given that you say you aren't proficient with maths or excel, i presume that you are not adjusting for time? So a game that happened 30 matches ago (which, if you look at some of the smaller leagues, could be almost 365 days) is just as relevant as a game that happened 3 days ago? If you decided to only look at league matches (for the h2h results, which makes sense, given that teams generally (or at least in recent years) use the cup competitions as an opportunity to see younger talent and give their regular performers a break), you could just download 10 years worth of data from Football-data.co.uk, and look for all the H2H's in that, right? That would mean that you could backtest ALL the leagues that they cater for. Not Brazil or USA, but every major league in Europe, and some of the smaller ones too... I would be interested to see the results of your backtesting...

You have a point there. And I was thinking about MLS ... they have play-off system, so even a lot of "league" games are actually play-offs and I don't like that really. I'm probably gonna drop MLS and continue with Brazil. But since Brazil Serie A is going on a 1.5 month break, I will backtest this league a little bit (only this season though, since I will have to manually enter the results). And then I'll try to backtest some of the top European leagues as you suggested, but as I told you, I'm no excel expert and I don't see myself backtesting all the leagues etc since I don't see how it can be fast (i cant just copy the results from football-data.co.uk ... have to sort some out and for every game I have to make a new spreadsheet etc) But I'll give it a try anyway. Portland lost to Vancouver 3-4 so that's another bad result in USA. Small sample size, but I'm gonna drop MLS already. Last 2 rounds of Brazil Serie A has produced 12 picks with 10 winners (1 push /1 lost) while MLS has produced 10 picks with 1 winner. I think the play-off system may be wrong for the system anyway.

[lorenzo.]

Re: Lorenzo's Soccer System Just finished backtesting Brazil Serie A THIS season, so still definately not a big enough sample size to come to any conclusions, but the results were very good (strike rate 51.8%, average odds 3.26, yield 64.3%, ROI 72% - so started with 50 points and 56 bets later had 86 points)

[lunatism]

Re: Lorenzo's Soccer System

...I'm probably gonna drop MLS and continue with Brazil... ...Small sample size, but I'm gonna drop MLS already.... ...Last 2 rounds of Brazil Serie A has produced 12 picks with 10 winners (1 push /1 lost) while MLS has produced 10 picks with 1 winner. I think the play-off system may be wrong for the system anyway.

Simple question here (i think I can guess the answer though...i'm in your brain :loon)...if the MLS had returned 10 winners from 10 picks, would you be considering dropping it? If The only reason you are dropping it, is because the results are bad, and then you looked for a reason why it could be underperforming as a reason to drop it, it's not a good tactic. You'll end up add condition after condition in order to keep a good average. If you're going to drop the MLS (or any league), it should be on sound logic. If it's because of the playoffs, why does your system not seem (to you...at this moment in time) to be suited to this league? Is this a problem with the league, or a problem with the system? These are important things to consider, because system building can always lead down the "cherry-picking" route (where you look at the wins, and try to justify their selection, or look at the losses and try to justify their exclusion), and that's no longer really system building at all. I only know this because i've done it plenty of times in the past, so just make sure that all your decisions are based on good reason. Not hypothesis, mind you, btu tested theory. If you think the playoff-style games are creating problems, analyse all the playoff-style matches and see if it agrees with you. You might find that all your home picks do well, and not so much the away games, you might find that in May/June, the system doesn't work so well (summer months, people thinking about upcoming World Cup, etc)... This kind of attitude (analysing rather than avoiding your problems), will help you to become better at creating and improving systems :ok

[lorenzo.]

Re: Lorenzo's Soccer System You are totally right, lunatism :D Sorry for the late answer, haven't had too much time to deal with betting lately. I'll do my best with all the analyzing etc, but only as much as I have time :D

[lorenzo.]

Re: Lorenzo's Soccer System I'm going to add Norweigan league (Tippeligaen) and drop MLS. 2 games and 4 picks for the coming days from Norway. 11.07 Brann - Stromsgodset (Tippeligaen): Pick Brann +0.5 @ 1.58 (Pinnacle) Pick Under 3.5 @ 1.55 (Pinnacle) 12.07 Valerenga - Rosenborg (Tippeligaen): Pick Rosenborg +0.5 @ 1.61 (Pinnacle) Pick Under 3.5 @ 1.58 (Pinnacle)

[lorenzo.]

Re: Lorenzo's Soccer System

I'm going to add Norweigan league (Tippeligaen) and drop MLS. 2 games and 4 picks for the coming days from Norway. 11.07 Brann - Stromsgodset (Tippeligaen): Pick Brann +0.5 @ 1.58 (Pinnacle) :eyes 0-1 Pick Under 3.5 @ 1.55 (Pinnacle) :clap0-1 12.07 Valerenga - Rosenborg (Tippeligaen): Pick Rosenborg +0.5 @ 1.61 (Pinnacle) :clap 2-2 Pick Under 3.5 @ 1.58 (Pinnacle) :eyes 2-2

Well ... a bit of minus here. Brazil Serie A will start pretty soon, so we'll have more picks soon.