'Clarity of selection' ...

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Hi chaps, Wasn't really sure what to call this thead, so I'll try to explain.... I'm basically looking to pick your brains - this may have been covered before - but how do you guys make your selections on a daily basis? The reason I ask is that I spend each evening with the form, the starts and the rest of it, but as time passes, I find myself getting 'bogged down', going over the same things and eventually, not being able to see the wood for the trees! I know what I am looking for; decent recent form (unless obvious excuses), evidence of ability at today's grade, in today's conditions and from today's mark (unless unexposed) and at a price which I consider 'value', all along with the usual trainer/jockey form etc. But just recently, I've struggled to get from those factors, via my thought process, to selections. Am I over thinking? Do I need a break? I love 5f and 6f sprints, and am happy looking at races up to 1m. I also love the AW (don't laugh!) - should I be concentrating on these and not 'pressuring' myself to have a bet each evening? Any comments appreciated.

[Trotter]

Re: 'Clarity of selection' ... Yes, that's a problem I recognise I think the trick is to change the type of races you look at every couple of months so you're looking at something a bit different For example if you've been concentrating on sprints you'll be looking at the draw and maybe speed figures..........have a couple of months on staying races where you'll be looking at stamina rather than speed I think there's a problem when you get too familiar with a sub-set of horses.......you look at a race, recognise most of the names and you'll already have opinions on them which might have been formed half a dozen runs ago but are difficult to shake off. I think it's always good to move to a different set of horses that you have no opinion on every couple of months Another tip........this is something I do. if I'm serious about studying a race I type stuff into a word document as I look at the horses. Otherwise I just keep going from horse to horse and re-thinking the same tin that I thought 30 minutes earlier but had forgotten in the meantime ! Also I start a race by typing out the horses in order of change of OR since last win......so maybe +10 at the top and -6 at the bottom. This gives me a structure to look at each horse in turn with a natural bias to horses in the middle of the list......not a lot higher than last win but not in decline. That's only a first assumption which can change but it gives me a starting point

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: 'Clarity of selection' ... Thanks Trotter, excellent stuff. I use Horseracebase so think I'm going to stat by typing my 'notes' up into the notes section of each horse. I'm thinking of just concentrating on 5f - 1m AW handicaps, Cl5+ because, especially in summer they will only be a few a week which will give the freshness I need.

[BillyHills]

Re: 'Clarity of selection' ... Interesting topic and as Lee said we have discussed it on here before but its also interesting to look back and find some threads from the past as i'm sure one or two posts would be useful to some. Had a quick scan and found these for a kick off. I'm sure there are plenty more. Your daily selection process Punter's Lounge Confessional - Aspects I Must Improve - Making it pay in 2013!! What is your best piece of advice for profitable punting in 2012? How to select 1 race to concentrate on! :ok

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: 'Clarity of selection' ... Thanks BH, I will look forward to reading them.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: 'Clarity of selection' ... Its a strange one because sometimes you can just look in the form book and pick the winner, or at least the one you would be happy to back but other times you end up going round in circles trying to over analysing every last bit of information thinking you will find an edge, but in the end your almost seeing something that isnt there. Been through it plenty of times, and it normally happens just after I have hit a hot patch and start getting cooler. I get complacent, I think I can win every race I set my eyes on and it generally results in me looking at far too many races, backing horses with no edge and at poor value, in fact I would say this weekend was one of those such occasions. I backed far too many horses and despite still picking a couple of winners, it hasnt shown as a profit because of these wasteful edgeless horses that I should have left well alone. Its true that the best be can sometimes be to not bet and if your not happy with the races you are looking at, then be patient and wait for the right one to turn up as it will jump off the page when it does come.