Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th In all honesty a sprinter probably wins this. Be it a more pure sprinter like Cav or Kittel or the Sagan type. However, with that rise at the end and the fact that the prize is not only a stage win but the maillot jaune, I can't help but have some small stakes on daring opportunists at big odds. Particularly given that the sprint trains may be interrupted, perhaps causing that few moments of hesitation that would enable a daring attack to succeed. Sylvain Chavanel @ 1000 - Never afraid to attack if a stage win and yellow is up for grabs. Fabian Cancellara @ 600 - If he can get a small gap he has the power to maintain it for 500m. Simon Gerrans @ 150 - With no Matthews he's Orica's best option and he's motivated for yellow. Thinks tomorrow is his best chance but the rise could definitely suit. All odds with Betfair for minimum stakes. Also have Sacha Modolo @ 26 as per earlier post.

[Darran]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th

Fair play for flagging that up' date=' but that preview was a disgrace and it shouldn't be given the time of day. Our previews were much better to be honest.[/quote'] Oh for sure I was just putting them up as a comparison. Their preview for stage 1 is awful and based mainly on the fact cav will want to be desperate to win. Don't get me wrong I think that plays a part but reminded me of the way they tipped cav up to win the Olympic road race. Sent from my GT-I8190N using PL Forum

[Darran]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Sagan gave it a good go for me today and at least I got a double figure price about him earlier in the week. Doing some research in the stage paid off as it clearly wasn't a normal sprint finish at all, but still Kittel got in a great position and was always going to get Sagan once he was there. Shame for Cav and it would have been interesting to see what he could have done today. Not saying he would have beaten him, but always disappointing when you don't get the best going up against one another and the Tour will be poorer if Cav can't carry on. Lotto rode awfully today. Why be on the front of the bunch for so long given the finish was so tough. Suggests to me they hadn't done their homework properly. No surprise that Greipal was well out of it after that. Great news for Froome backers to see him finish 6th today as that suggests to me he is in cracking form. Also great to see such huge crowds on the roads. Can't wait until Monday to see it for myself.

[SteveD53]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th

As mentioned in The Giro thread. Took Marcel Kittel at 3.00 to win the first stage with Paddypower. So much faster than everyone else. Hope Giant can deliver him!

Wahey. Has given me lots of money to waste so am starting on tomorrow's, impossible to predict stage 2 Am discounting the GC leaders, unless they want spend an extra week defending yellow So very small bets e/w at Paddypower Greg Van Avermaet 51.00 Christophe Riblon 51.00 Joaquim Rodriguez 67.00 Also got a small freebet so have put it on Simon Yates as a fanboy Totally open stage for me. Could be spectacuar :)

[Darran]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th

Wahey. Has given me lots of money to waste so am starting on tomorrow's, impossible to predict stage 2 Am discounting the GC leaders, unless they want spend an extra week defending yellow So very small bets e/w at Paddypower Greg Van Avermaet 51.00 Christophe Riblon 51.00 Joaquim Rodriguez 67.00 Also got a small freebet so have put it on Simon Yates as a fanboy Totally open stage for me. Could be spectacuar :)

You did miss out on the price though, think he may even have touched 3/1 at some point.

[Darran]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Sagan looks short for tomorrow's stage but if it is a limited bunch sprint then obviously he has a big chance. Going to leave it alone for now but Betfred, Totesport, Boylesports. Stan James, Ladbrokes and Coral all deserve praise for going 4 places.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th

In all honesty a sprinter probably wins this. Be it a more pure sprinter like Cav or Kittel or the Sagan type. However, with that rise at the end and the fact that the prize is not only a stage win but the maillot jaune, I can't help but have some small stakes on daring opportunists at big odds. Particularly given that the sprint trains may be interrupted, perhaps causing that few moments of hesitation that would enable a daring attack to succeed. Sylvain Chavanel @ 1000 - Never afraid to attack if a stage win and yellow is up for grabs. Fabian Cancellara @ 600 - If he can get a small gap he has the power to maintain it for 500m. Simon Gerrans @ 150 - With no Matthews he's Orica's best option and he's motivated for yellow. Thinks tomorrow is his best chance but the rise could definitely suit. All odds with Betfair for minimum stakes. Also have Sacha Modolo @ 26 as per earlier post.

Chavanel didn't feature at all whilst Cancellara sadly didn't have the power to maintain the gap. Gerrans denied after being taken out by Cav but don't think he'd have beat Kittel to be fair. Not sure I could take Sagan tonight. I'm sure he'll win from a sprint but there's bound to be some attacks late on. Are Cannondale going to have enough riders there to chase it all down?

[9coconuts]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th I think the anxiety of the GC contenders today could push the pace & thin out the peloton a lot over the hills. I can see this combining with the efforts of Sagan's team to make a successful breakaway unlikely, but Sagan's price is a bit short for my liking. I'm looking at those who might bother to contest the sprint, or even possibly launch late attack (though this requires generous odds), once the peloton has thinned. Rojas e/w (4 places) @66/1 w/Betfred - can get up the hills & always contests the sprints. Could be good each-way value I reckon. Thomas e/w (4 places) @100/1 w/Boylesports - has the climbing/sprinting competence, & might fancy it in the UK. He did mention in an interview that he might look at this stage (or stage 5) if he happens to find himself in with a chance near the end. Martin e/w (4 places) @200/1 w/Betfred - in good form, & a fine climber, without having a really genuine GC chance, so might look to today for a stage win if the racing turns out really tough.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th I think a select group is likely to make it to the final 20km or so together but some riders are going to attack and it's a question of whether they can be brought back for Sagan to sprint it out. At the odds he's at I can't have him so focus is on who those riders might be that will attack late: Michael Albasini @ 27 - Did have Gerrans pencilled in but he tweeted that he's very sore today and I can't possibly touch him. Albasini is in good form this year and I can see him launching a late attack. Greg Van Avarmaet @ 50 - Another in good form who I can see going for after TJVG is safely tucked in. Vincenzo Nibali @ 100 - There's a couple of descents I can see him attacking on. There's also rumoured to be some bad weather and I've always found the Italian does well in the more dour conditions and likes to take advantage of the fact that others will be careful going downhill in the wet. Logic says to avoid GC contenders but I can't shake the feeling that Nibali will be keen to try something.

[antogz]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th I was at a stag last night so sorry for the late write up. Kittel done the business for us yesterday I was thinking he would as he would have been 100% fresh. It's a pity about Cavendish but he wouldn't have won yesterday anyway. Onto today, this could be an epic stage if it is raced right. I'm sure it will comedown to a reduced sprint as the yellow jersey is at stake. I don't give Kittel much of a chance today to be honest. Gerrans was a fella I liked but I couldn't back him now after that crash. Sagan is the obvious choice and after his good showing yesterday he will be hard to beat. You could say the price is short at 5/2, but it isn't to be honest. I think he will win so i like the 5/2. The profile suits him perfectly and he should have the real sprinter shelled out the back well before the finish. Of the others my other big fancy is Albasini. I think Green Edge will go all out for this today and with a doubt over Gerrans Albasini should give this a good go. The profile will suit and he is in great form this year. I wouldn't rule out Valverde, Degenkolb, Slaghter or Van Avermaet either. Tony Gallopin is the other rider that interests me. He can be got at 50/1 which is an excellent price for him. He has shown good form recently will love this profile and he has a very decent sprint as well. I expect him to go well. Bets 5pts Sagan 5/2 PP 1pt e/w Albasini 25/1 boyles 1pt e/w Gallopin 50/1 bet 365.

[9coconuts]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th

Did have Gerrans pencilled in but he tweeted that he's very sore today and I can't possibly touch him.

Yeah, I read he lost a lot of skin. It's important to know about the severity of his crash yesterday, as he would otherwise have been a likely contender.

[Darran]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th I don't think anyone can say for certain that Cav wouldn't have won yesterday. We will never know what would have happened. He was in a good position and it would have a good clash between the two of them. Gerrans was interviewed on the TV and he said he woke up sore this morning, but was still hoping to be involved at the finish.

[Xtc12]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Betting In Running with this : Valverde 1 pt e/w @ 26.0 This year, he finished 2nd after Simon Gerrans in Liège-Bastogne-Liège, a race the Spaniard has won multiple times the past. Valverde knows that he most likely won’t be able to stick with Chris Froome and Alberto Contador on the long climbs later in the race. Therefore, it would be of huge importance if he could get just a small advantage already. I don’t think Valverde can beat Gerrans in a sprint on flat road anymore. However, Valverde’s killer instinct is still intact. When he sees the finishing line, he always finds extra energy in his legs. Slagter 1 Pt e/w @ 26.0 Garmin is backing Andrew Talansky 100 % for the GC this year, aiming for Top5 overall. Naturally, the number one priority is to make sure the young American is near the front. However, on paper, this finish is great for Slagter. He has a powerful kick on these kind of hills and he has already proven to be extremely fast in a sprint within a reduced group. Last year, he outsprinted Simon Gerrans in Stirling in Tour de Down. This year, the Dutchman won two stages in Paris-Nice and finished 5th in Flèche Wallone and 6th in Liège-Bastogne-Liège. If this ends in a sprint within a 25-man group, don’t be surprised if Slagter makes another top result.

[9coconuts]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th

I think a select group is likely to make it to the final 20km or so together but some riders are going to attack and it's a question of whether they can be brought back for Sagan to sprint it out. At the odds he's at I can't have him so focus is on who those riders might be that will attack late: Michael Albasini @ 27 - Did have Gerrans pencilled in but he tweeted that he's very sore today and I can't possibly touch him. Albasini is in good form this year and I can see him launching a late attack. Greg Van Avarmaet @ 50 - Another in good form who I can see going for after TJVG is safely tucked in. Vincenzo Nibali @ 100 - There's a couple of descents I can see him attacking on. There's also rumoured to be some bad weather and I've always found the Italian does well in the more dour conditions and likes to take advantage of the fact that others will be careful going downhill in the wet. Logic says to avoid GC contenders but I can't shake the feeling that Nibali will be keen to try something.

Note to self: Ignore own analysis & blindly copy Crouch Potato... 1st & 2nd - not a bad start!!

[9coconuts]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Oh yeah, and a mere 6th... Buck your ideas up there Crouchy - we expect the 1-2-3 tomorrow ;)

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Definitely a good start to the tour! Your 1-2-3 tomorrow will probably start with Kittel and Greipel but I've always been absolute pants at picking sprinters.

[Xtc12]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th

Definitely a good start to the tour! Your 1-2-3 tomorrow will probably start with Kittel and Greipel but I've always been absolute pants at picking sprinters.

Hope you took a lot out at them prices CP :clap

[Darran]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Well done CP that is top tipping and amazing Nibali was 100 to start with really although I didn't have a bet on the stage today sadly so didn't follow you in.

[Darran]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th The 8/11 about Kittel has already gone although it was with Paddy Power and they limit me to tiny bets anyway. Hoping to see better than 4/7 but it is hard to not see him winning barring accident.

[SteveD53]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Kittel was at 3/1 :eek Was that in-running? Thought my advance 2/1 was a steal :$

[SteveD53]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th

Wahey. Has given me lots of money to waste so am starting on tomorrow's, impossible to predict stage 2 Am discounting the GC leaders, unless they want spend an extra week defending yellow So very small bets e/w at Paddypower Greg Van Avermaet 51.00 Christophe Riblon 51.00 Joaquim Rodriguez 67.00 Also got a small freebet so have put it on Simon Yates as a fanboy Totally open stage for me. Could be spectacuar :)

Discounting GC riders was a mistake. Congrats to Nibali! GVA's second place means a 50% profit. With Kittel yesterday, am about 220% up. Now to waste it all:) Should be a breeze for Kittel tomorrow, but 1.57 doesn't really do it for me. Maybe Coquard e/w at 19/1?

[antogz]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Excellent stuff CP great call.

[BillyHills]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Well done CP, on the mark early this year mate:clap Will be in Cambridge tomorrow to see the start:ok Some quality stuff / write ups on here by the way:clap

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Cheers fellas. Agree Kittel should win but not going to get involved at those prices. Gonna sit this one out and wait for the cobbles.

[Darran]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Now it was in the week before, he was certainly 11/4 and I am sure I saw 3/1 on one day I looked. Wish I had backed Kittel for Stage 3 in the week as well as he surely can't be beaten tomorrow. Taken the 8/13 and he should be every bit the cash-point Cav used to be. Hoping to get a good spot on the Mall to watch it all.

[antogz]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th

I was at a stag last night so sorry for the late write up. Kittel done the business for us yesterday I was thinking he would as he would have been 100% fresh. It's a pity about Cavendish but he wouldn't have won yesterday anyway. Onto today, this could be an epic stage if it is raced right. I'm sure it will comedown to a reduced sprint as the yellow jersey is at stake. I don't give Kittel much of a chance today to be honest. Gerrans was a fella I liked but I couldn't back him now after that crash. Sagan is the obvious choice and after his good showing yesterday he will be hard to beat. You could say the price is short at 5/2, but it isn't to be honest. I think he will win so i like the 5/2. The profile suits him perfectly and he should have the real sprinter shelled out the back well before the finish. Of the others my other big fancy is Albasini. I think Green Edge will go all out for this today and with a doubt over Gerrans Albasini should give this a good go. The profile will suit and he is in great form this year. I wouldn't rule out Valverde, Degenkolb, Slaghter or Van Avermaet either. Tony Gallopin is the other rider that interests me. He can be got at 50/1 which is an excellent price for him. He has shown good form recently will love this profile and he has a very decent sprint as well. I expect him to go well. Bets 5pts Sagan 5/2 PP 1pt e/w Albasini 25/1 boyles 1pt e/w Gallopin 50/1 bet 365.

I hit the cross bar with 4th, 5th and 6th. I was really annoyed with Sagan that was his stage for the taking and he looked strong. Today should be a formality for Kittel bar a crash. You could say there is value in the 8/13 but after Sagan yesterday I'll leave it alone. Griepel is the big danger but I can't see him beating Kittel. I'm going to give Demare another chance today, he has been no where to be seen so far, but on his day I think he is the 3rd fastest here. Coquard at 20/1 is the other one I like, he had an excellent 4th on stage one and with his good postioning he should be thereabouts again today. 1pt e/w Demare 13/1 bet 365 1pt e/w Coquard 20/1 generally

[9coconuts]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th I'm also backing Coquard to finish top 3 (@4.8 w/Betfair) today after his impressive win of yesterday's intermediate sprint. Had a small stake on him to win the stage as well @26, because even if he's not the fastest, anything can happen in the kind of finishing bunch sprint which we are all anticipating today.

[Xtc12]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th This stage is as flat as a pancake so anything other than a bunch finish would be a surprise. Kittel is too short a price to back so going to take a chance with B.Coquard. Coquard is coming from the track so has a very powerful kick in the final meters. Finished 4th on stage 1 and by all accounts was very disappointed. He has not got a great lead out team so will have to try and get on the wheel of one of the top sprinters. 1 Pt e/w ?B.Coquard @ 20/1 Boyles

[9coconuts]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th So, no side-on replay of the finish was broadcast (at least on ITV4), and yet even from the front-on replay, it was clear that Coquard finished 3rd, not Renshaw. 3rd was awarded to Renshaw though. Did everyone else see that?

[antogz]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th

So' date=' no side-on replay of the finish was broadcast (at least on ITV4), and yet even from the front-on replay, it was clear that Coquard finished 3rd, not Renshaw. 3rd was awarded to Renshaw though. Did everyone else see that?[/quote'] Side view on Eurosport Renshaw comes 3rd by 1/2 a wheel.