Abd El Kader french Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Re: February 17 - February 23 @Torque im maybe wrong , but almost everytime when you choose your dogs , i think the game goes very close and overs are always done Do you take overs too , when you take your dogs? Sorry my bad english ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Re: February 17 - February 23 @Torque im maybe wrong , but almost everytime when you choose your dogs , i think the game goes very close and overs are always done Do you take overs too , when you take your dogs? Sorry my bad english ;) It's something I'm going to look at. At the moment I don't, because I only use Betfair which isn't great for overs and handicaps. In theory, given that the overs and handicap prices are based on the match line, if there is value in them then there is value in betting the straight win even though there is still the possibility of long losing runs. In practice, it's probably better to stick to overs and handicaps to reduce the variability and volatility of results. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KavkaZ Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Re: February 17 - February 23 K. Anderson v Ivo Karlovic Not entirely clear why Kevin made ??a slight favorite. For me, Ivo is very stable , it had a lot more practice , so I think 50 to 50 is at a minimum. Well, if given a head start on a small positive for the croat , why not try ? One break in any of the sets - and all will be ok. Of course it is possible that South African can win in two games , but then again, Karlovic is now in perfect order , and certainly not only compete in one set, but also to win the match. It is not excluded that we will see three tie-breaks... Oh well , the probability is very high that a modest handicap 1.5 game work as in defeat, and the victory. Pick: Ivo (+1.5) Games at 2.05 Marathonbet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Re: February 17 - February 23 Sergiy Stakhovsky to beat Edouard Roger-Vasselin @ 2.52 Betfair Everything points to a win for Roger-Vasselin here, as he is the home player and has only lost to Stakhovsky once in five matches against the Ukranian. Even so, I'm not so sure Roger-Vasselin will have it all his own way here. He really struggled in his first round match against Pavic, whilst Stakhovsky rallied well to overcome Evans who has been in good form recently. If you discount the head-to-head this looks like it could be a pretty even contest, and so I like the price for a Stakhovsky win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted February 20, 2014 Author Share Posted February 20, 2014 Re: February 17 - February 23 Back Anna-Lena Friedsam to beat Kurumi Nara for a 7/10 stake at 1.75 with BetVictor I didn't like what I saw from Kurumi Nara yesterday, so fancy Anna-Lena Friedsam to beat her today. She has a 2-0 record against the Japanese player and has been playing well in recent days and weeks, after all, while her game also seems to be well-suited to clay. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/friedsam-vs-nara-betting-anna-lena-friedsam-to-get-her-third-straight-victory-over-kurumi-nara Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted February 20, 2014 Author Share Posted February 20, 2014 Re: February 17 - February 23 Back Teimuraz Gabashvili (+1.5 sets) to beat Kei Nishikori for a 4/10 stake at 3.00 with Pinnacle Back Teimuraz Gabashvili to beat Kei Nishikori for a 2/10 stake at 7.14 with Pinnacle Not a good spot for Kei Nishikori. He's struggled with back-to-back matches and tournaments in the past, so perhaps he's going to face some struggles against Gabashvili here. He looked a bit poor in the first round and Gabashvili can do a lot of damage with his reckless hitting, so these prices look worth taking to me. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/gabashvili-vs-nishikori-betting-teimuraz-gabashvili-not-without-a-chance-against-the-japanese-number-one Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Re: February 17 - February 23 I'm backing Bagnis against Dolgopolov as I think the price on him is too high. It's about to start so no time for lots of reasoning, but for me Dolgopolov is far too inconsistent to be backed in this match. His price wouldn't be this low if it weren't for the fact he beat Almagro in the last round, and so there is some value on Bagnis at 5.40 on Betfair in my opinion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Re: February 17 - February 23 Ryan Harrison to beat Marin Cilic @ 5.50 Betfair It's getting to the stage now where you have to think fatigue is going to creep into Cilic's game. The Croat won the title in Zagreb and made the final in Rotterdam where he showed signs of tiredness, and he was fortunate that he met Becker in the first round here as the German is in woeful form. Harrison isn't playing that well either in all honesty, but he should be fresh as he didn't play a full match in the last round. This is Harrison's back yard, so to speak, and if Cilic is not at his best then I think the American can exploit that in this match. Teymuraz Gabashvili to beat Kei Nishikori @ 7.40 Betfair The money continues to come in for Nishikori, which is perhaps understandable as Gabashvili is so hot and cold. Still, Nishikori had problems in his last match against Elias and Gabashvili is a player more than capable of beating him on one of his good days. The last time he played one of the better players on tour he beat Verdasco at the Australian Open, and it does seem as though he is one of those players that saves his best tennis for the bigger matches. Like Cilic, Nishikori has played a fair bit of tennis recently and so might be feeling jaded, and if Gabashvili runs hot in this match he could topple the Japanese here. Albert Montanes to beat Rafael Nadal @ 40.00 Betfair You could argue that the price on Nadal in this match represents value, given that prior to beating Haase in the first round here Montanes had not won a single match since before the US Open last year. Most of those matches were away from his favoured clay though, not to mention that some players results tail off towards the end of the season as tiredness catches up with them or they lose motivation. As far as I'm concerned, the bottom line in this match is that Montanes is a clay court specialist who has had plenty of notable wins on the surface, and so from that perspective I think Nadal is short. It might be that the Spanish top seed flattens his compatriot, but I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up being a close match. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Re: February 17 - February 23 It's pretty clear that Montanes has got no chance against Nadal, and that means my losing streak on the big underdogs will extend to thirty. I've had long losing runs like this in the past and have recovered which is why I've continued up to this point, but as I've alluded to in previous posts you need an iron constitution to continue with this kind of strategy and I've reached the end of the line. I'm not a believer in luck per se, but if I was it's been in short supply recently as illustrated when Nishikori retired in the first set when trailing Gabashvili. There's a lot to be said for perseverance, but there's also a lot to be said for cutting your losses which is what I'll be doing. It could be that in the very long term this kind of betting is a winner, but I just don't have the strength to get there. I'm going to spend some time investigating overs as well as game and set handicaps to see if that might be the way to go, and I'll continue to write the occasional post for bets I particularly like. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metaphor Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Re: February 17 - February 23 Sorry to hear Torque but I guess there is only so much one can take. Ironically enough, as you end your run with the underdogs, I'm going to try my luck with one today. I can't recall when was the last time I backed a big underdog as I usually pick marginal favourites/dogs. Bellucci to beat Ferrer @ 6.50 Unibet - Now if this match took place anywhere else than in Brazil I wouldn't back Bellucci. Have you heard the crowd? I have hardly ever heard this loud support in a tennis match. Everytime their player wins a point the crowd goes absolutely crazy and completely silent when the opponent does so. They cheer to unforced errors made by the opponent (which is stupid imo) and boo if he questions a line call. At least this was the case in the two matches I caught, Bellucci-Monaco and Pereira-Mayr. Ferrer might have more fans here but the vast majority will surely be behind their countryman. - Bellucci actually won their last meeting dating back to April 2012 and did so in straight sets. Knowing he has beaten the guy on the other side of the net before should give him some confidence. - Many of you won't agree with this but I'll have it anyway: this will be Ferrer's sixth match in seven days - he might just feel a little tired. You know, he is turning 32 in one month and isn't getting any younger, he won't run like a rabbit till he is 40. This year he has lost to Lu and Brands, I wouldn't rank these guys ahead of Bellucci who is a much better player than his ranking indicates. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted February 21, 2014 Author Share Posted February 21, 2014 Re: February 17 - February 23 Back Aleksandr Dolgopolov (+3.5) to beat Fabio Fognini for a 7/10 stake at 1.72 with Pinnacle The Italian is still going strong, but he is starting to feel some tiredness, as he just threw a set away against Aljaz Bedene and looked a bit disinterested after going a break down against Pablo Cuevas. Dolgopolov has finally managed to win two matches in a row and I fancy him to cover this handicap line more often than not here. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/dolgopolov-vs-fognini-betting-aleksandr-dolgopolov-to-cover-the-handicap-line-against-fabio-fognini Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted February 21, 2014 Author Share Posted February 21, 2014 Re: February 17 - February 23 Back Lourdes Dominguez-Lino to beat Kurumi Nara for a 7/10 stake at 1.90 with Pinnacle I'll go against Kurumi Nara once again. She won against Friedsam yesterday, but I did not like what I saw from either player, so Lourdes Dominguez-Lino should be able prevail here, since she looked good against both Francesca Schiavone and Chanelle Scheepers. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/dominguez-lino-vs-nara-betting-lourdes-dominguez-lino-has-what-it-takes-to-stop-kurumi-nara-in-brazil Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nickel1 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Re: February 17 - February 23 How easy was that :cigar Sweet!:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted February 22, 2014 Author Share Posted February 22, 2014 Re: February 17 - February 23 Back Teliana Pereira to beat Klara Zakopalova for a 5/10 stake at 2.78 with Pinnacle A speculative bet given how easily Zakopalova has been winning here so far, but Pereira seems to be playing incredibly well in home conditions and I think that she has what it takes to beat the Czech today. After all, Zakopalova can be very shaky once the going gets tough - and that's what should happen in this match. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/pereira-vs-zakopalova-betting-klara-zakopalova-might-struggle-in-the-tough-brazilian-conditions Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted February 22, 2014 Author Share Posted February 22, 2014 Re: February 17 - February 23 Back Jan-Lennard Struff (+1.5 sets) to beat Jo-Wilfried Tsonga for a 5/10 stake at 2.56 with Pinnacle Tsonga hasn't been anywhere near his best in recent weeks, while Jan-Lennard Struff seems to be on song in Marseille, so I like the look of the plus set handicap here. The German has already beaten Llodra and Benneteau this week, after all, so he shouldn't be too concerned about having to face Tsonga. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/struff-vs-tsonga-betting-jan-lennard-struff-can-do-some-damage-over-in-marseille Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banner Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Re: February 17 - February 23 Looks like we have different opinions today Czech! ATP Marseille Joe-Wilfried Tsonga v Jan-Lennard Struff - 22/02/14 - 14:30pm This match features Jo-Wilfried Tsonga ranked 10th on the ATP tour and he faces Jan-Lennard Struff ranked 117th on the ATP tour. Firstly Tsonga won this tournament last year and will be setting his sites on winning it again as he will not want to lose the 250 ranking points he has from this tournament. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has won 18 in a row when priced as Heavy Favourite ( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metaphor Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Re: February 17 - February 23 CzechPunter, do you like Burnett over Nara? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted February 22, 2014 Author Share Posted February 22, 2014 Re: February 17 - February 23 CzechPunter' date=' do you like Burnett over Nara?[/quote'] Nah, not really at the current prices. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banner Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Re: February 17 - February 23 Massive choke from Struff. Got lucky there Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted February 22, 2014 Author Share Posted February 22, 2014 Re: February 17 - February 23 Back Ernests Gulbis to beat Jo-Wilfried Tsonga for a 7/10 stake at 2.50 with Bet365 Have to go against Tsonga once again. He wasn't actually too far from losing against Jan-Lennard Struff in the semis, so I am not sure about where this sort of favoritism is coming from. Gulbis is playing well at the moment, he crushed Gasquet in the semis, so this price does look worth taking to me. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/gulbis-vs-tsonga-betting-ernests-gulbis-can-complete-his-marseille-run-with-a-win-over-jo-wilfried-tsonga Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted February 23, 2014 Author Share Posted February 23, 2014 Re: February 17 - February 23 Back Aleksandr Dolgopolov (+5.5) to beat Rafael Nadal for a 7/10 stake at 1.93 with Pinnacle Back Aleksandr Dolgopolov to beat Rafael Nadal for a 3/10 stake at 6.17 with Pinnacle Fancy Dolgopolov here after seeing Nadal struggle yesterday. It was clear that he is still not completely alright fitness-wise and that is a problem that shouldn't go away overnight, so Dolgopolov should have every chance of getting something from this match. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/dolgopolov-vs-nadal-betting-aleksandr-dolgopolov-to-confirm-his-rise-in-form-in-rio-de-janeiro Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted February 23, 2014 Author Share Posted February 23, 2014 Re: February 17 - February 23 Back Marin Cilic (-3) to beat Kevin Anderson for a 7/10 stake at 1.93 with Pinnacle Marin Cilic has been playing excellent tennis in the last couple of weeks and Anderson shouldn't have enough to stop him today. The South African is yet to face a top-class opponent here, after all, and he's dropped a set against both Smyczek and Matosevic, so a win shouldn't be within his range today. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/cilic-vs-anderson-betting-marin-cilic-looks-set-to-capture-the-title-in-delray-beach Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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