February 17 - February 23

[CzechPunter]

:ok

[CzechPunter]

Re: February 17 - February 23 Back Maryna Zanevska to beat Mona Barthel for a 5/10 stake at 3.65 with Pinnacle A good price on Zanevska in my opinion. She's had some good results in recent days and she has beaten Barthel before, so I think that she shouldn't be priced over 3.00 here. Mona Barthel is just way too hit or miss at the moment. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/zanevska-vs-barthel-betting-maryna-zanevska-worth-a-punt-over-in-dubai

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Re: February 17 - February 23 T.Robredo v P.Carreno-Busta This match feature Tommy Robredo ranked 17th on the ATP tour and he faces fellow Spaniard Pablo Carreno-Busta ranked 65 on the ATP tour. There is no doubt that Carreno-Busta had a great season last year where he shot up in the rankings largely due to him winning so many matches on the Challenger tour, however there is a huge difference between the Challenger tour and ATP tour. This has shown already this year, with Carreno-Busta winning just 1 of his 6 matches this year. I was relatively surprised to see Robredo at similar odds to the last time these two played each other which was just last week where Robredo won in straight sets. Last week Robredo beat Carreno Busta in straight sets which was odds of 1.83. The best price for the same result this time round is 1.8 which looks decent value. So what is different this week compared to last week? Well this week is a ATP 500 event which means the ranking points available are greater therefore Robredo should be more motivated than he was last week. Also the win percentage for favourites is higher in ATP 500 events compare with ATP 250 event. I mentioned how Carreno-Busta has had a slow start to the season with just the one win. Robredo has had a pretty average start to the season and did manage to reach the 4th round of the Australian Open where he lost to the eventual winner Wawrinka! Robredo did have a bit of a shock loss to Leo Mayer in the 2nd round at Vina Del Mar but went onto reach the semi final the following week in Buenos Aires before losing to the inform Fognini. Carreno-Busta is still massively inexperience on the ATP tour playing just 20 matches. Compare this with Robredo who has played over 700 matches winning 11 clay court titles in this period! Robredo’s motivation should be high this week with the chance of picking up some pressure ranking points and a possible run to the semi final! Recommended Bet: 4 Units Robredo 2-0 v Carreno Busta – Paddy Power @ 1.8

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Re: February 17 - February 23 K.Anderson v T.Smyczek This match features Kevin Anderson ranked 22nd on the ATP tour and he faces Tim Smyczek ranked 102nd on the ATP tour. Anderson struggled early on in the season due to him contracting Salmonella meaning he only played 1 preparation match for the Australian Open. Despite this Anderson still gave a good account for himself and managed to reach the 4th round before losing to the inform Berdych. This loss was inevitable after playing two 5 setters in his first 3 matches! Tim Smyczek has had a very poor start to the season and has yet to win a set against a player ranked inside the top 100 on the ATP tour. Anderson reached the Quarter Finals here last year meaning he has 45 points to defend, he should be motivated to regain these especially as he is in the favourable half of the draw and has a very good chance of making the final. Anderson actually trains and lives in Florida therefore will be living at home whilst playing this week which should be a big advantage for the South African. Anderson also returned back to Florida after the Australian Open therefore has had a lot of time to prepare for this event. These two have met on 3 occasions and Anderson has won every one in straight sets. Including a win in straight sets in this same event last year in the first round. Anderson is the much more established player out of these two and this is shown as he has won 57.4% of his ATP hard court matches which include 2 titles. Compared with Smyczek who has won just 33.3% of his ATP Hard court matches. Recommended Bet: 4 Units K.Anderson 2-0 v T.Smyczek – BetVictor @ 1.87

[CzechPunter]

Re: February 17 - February 23 Back Bjorn Phau to beat Rhyne Williams for a 7/10 stake at 2.20 with Pinnacle Bjorn Phau has always been a pretty consistent perform and he has been playing well in recent weeks, so I would have the odds the other way around here. Home conditions can only do so much for a player and Rhyne Williams is yet to make any waves when it comes to the ATP-level, so I will be siding with the German at odds against. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/phau-vs-williams-betting-bjorn-phau-looks-value-against-rhyne-williams-in-delray-beach

[CzechPunter]

Re: February 17 - February 23 Back Facundo Bagnis to beat Joao Souza for a 7/10 stake at 2.16 with Pinnacle Bagnis has a 4-1 record against Souza and he has even beaten him in Brazil before, so I have to say that I quite like the Argentinian at this price. Souza hasn't been able to find his best in recent days by the looks of things, so I probably wouldn't even have him as the favorite here. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/bagnis-vs-souza-betting-facundo-bagnis-should-have-the-edge-over-joao-souza-once-again

[bobix]

Re: February 17 - February 23

Back Maryna Zanevska to beat Mona Barthel for a 5/10 stake at 3.65 with Pinnacle A good price on Zanevska in my opinion. She's had some good results in recent days and she has beaten Barthel before, so I think that she shouldn't be priced over 3.00 here. Mona Barthel is just way too hit or miss at the moment. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/zanevska-vs-barthel-betting-maryna-zanevska-worth-a-punt-over-in-dubai

Nice one! :ok

[CzechPunter]

Re: February 17 - February 23 Back Kirsten Flipkens to beat Karolina Pliskova for a 7/10 stake at 1.85 with Pinnacle Flipkens will test Pliskova's patience with her slices and defensive shots, which is something that the Czech should find hard to deal with. The surface doesn't seem to be fast enough to allow Pliskova to just out-hit Flipkens, so the Belgian should have the edge here match-up-wise. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/flipkens-vs-pliskova-betting-kirsten-flipkens-should-be-able-to-outplay-karolina-pliskova

[CzechPunter]

Re: February 17 - February 23 Back Alejandro Falla to beat Rhyne Williams for a 7/10 stake at 2.10 with BetVictor I just have to go against Rhyne Williams for the second time in a row. Alejandro Falla is still the much better player of the two, so his health is probably the only thing that can stop him here and that is a risk that I am willing to take at this price. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/falla-vs-williams-betting-alejandro-falla-has-what-it-takes-to-crush-rhyne-williams-in-delray-beach

[Metaphor]

Re: February 17 - February 23 Michael Llodra (-2.5 games) to beat Lukas Lacko @ 1.78 Unibet - Llodra is due for a win this year, he has actually played only two singles matches losing to Berrer in AO and Gicquel in Montpellier. In doubles he reached semifinals in Australia and won the Rotterdam Open with Mahut, so I'm not too concerned. - Lackos results so far this season are nothing to brag about and last week I watched him losing to Becker (guy he had 3-0 record against) 6-3, 6-2 in Memphis. His display was obnoxious and seemed not to even care in the second set. I'm more than happy to bet against guys who have this kind of attitude. -Llodra is a different beast in France. He always plays much better at home, just take a look who he has beaten there over the years: Djokovic, Del Potro, Berdych, Soderling to name a few. Moreover, in the past 5 years he has reached the final of this particular tournament three times, winning it in 2010. Last year he was knocked out by Del Potro 3-6, 7-6, 7-5 in R16.

[Atko]

Re: February 17 - February 23 Going to make a return to the forums. Been far too long :ok Here are my bets for today. - KEVIN ANDERSON -3.5 GAMES (v Tim Smyczek, Delray Beach) @ 1.84 with dafabet Quite happy to back Kevin in this one on the line. Former champion in this event, likes the conditions and comes here fresh. He's beaten Smyczek before by covering this line. Young American is too inconsistent for me to trouble the big boys. Anderson should prevail with little fuss. - TOBIAS KAMKE -4.5 GAMES (v Kyle Edmund, Marseille) @ 2.06 with dafabet Edmund is a young British player whose best results have come on clay. He's inexperienced at this level and although he only lost 6-3, 7-5 to a half-fit Vasek Pospisil in Chennai earlier this year, there's a gulf in class with Kamke. The German is a decent top 100 player and for my money should be able to cover this line. - EDOUARD ROGER-VASSELIN -4.5 GAMES (v Ante Pavic, Marseille) @ 1.85 with dafabet Pavic came through qualies here, but, again, there's too much of a gulf in class. ERV is probably in the form of his career right now and Frenchmen are always very strong in Marseille. ERV is a very attack-minded player and I can see his style getting him through this cosily. - PABLO ANDUJAR -3.5 GAMES (v Julian Reister, Rio) @ 1.83 with dafabet Reister is on a bad run of losses right now and Andujar clicked into some form last week in Buenos Aires. Spaniard is probably a level or two above Reister and these slow clay conditions in Rio will suit him. Ought to win with a bit to spare. - PABLO CUEVAS -2.5 GAMES (v Alejandro Gonzalez, Rio) @ 1.85 with dafabet Big match for Cuevas here. He's coming to the end of his protected ranking and a win in a 500 event is a must if he's to play in more of these bigger events. Couldn't really have asked for a better draw than Gonzalez, who hasn't really made the step up from Challenger to World Tour and has struggled badly on serve during the Latin clay swing. Cuevas is a good player who has been curtailed by injury - top 40 on his day - and should win by enough to see this line through. - ALEXANDR DOLGOPOLOV +1.5 SETS (v Nicolas Almagro) @ 2.11 with dafabet I think this will be a tight match. Dolgo is probably at her lowest ranking for some time, but on clay, he's a massive threat. He's defeated Almagro before and the Spaniard wasn't that convincing in making the semis in BA, where he was routined by Ferrer (again). Nico is rightly favourite, but Dolgo has a good chance of pinching a set. - ALJAZ BEDENE +4.5 GAMES (v Fabio Fognini, Rio) @ 1.94 with dafabet These two have met twice before, including once this year, and each time Bedene has covered the line. Big server who likes the clay. Fognini is on a great run on the dirt, but he lost the final of BA to Ferrer just two days ago and will be suffering a little bit. Can't see the Italian whitewashing Bedene in this one and the line, for me, is generous. - BRADLEY KLAHN (v Lleyton Hewitt, Delray Beach) @ 2.08 with dafabet Like the look of Klahn as a dog here. Emerging, big-hitting, powerful American who does well in his own country. Appears more steady than most of his counterparts and Hewitt, after his meek loss last week to Russell, has proved that he's still a waning force. New meets old here, and I like the look of new. Good luck to one and all :hope

[KavkaZ]

Re: February 17 - February 23 Teimuraz Gabashvili v Matthew Ebden Consider the first-round match at the tournament in Delray Beach, where neighbors meet - World No 62 Australian Matthew Ebden and 65th number Russian Teimuraz Gabashvili. In this match we see three sets perhaps even decisive tiebreak. It's too viscous such rivals - Ebden last year took a new coach , with whom he won more than a mediocre tournament , started playing with a great desire and character, started thinking , and not just rely on getting first serve. Gabashvili also gained. Tries in each drawing , finds hidden reserves and, if necessary , for example, when he lost a set, use them , and is very successful, more points to win on his own serve , and also began to serve better. Over 21.5 Games @ 1.78 Pinnacle

[Torque]

Re: February 17 - February 23 Nightmare couple of weeks for me, but perfectly normal from a statistical perspective given the prices taken. Let's see if this week is any better or if the losing streak continues. Jeremy Chardy to beat David Ferrer @ 7.20 Betfair When you consider the prices the last time these two met at the Australian Open, Ferrer looks too short to me here even allowing for the change in surface and his success in Buenos Aires last week. Chardy made the quarters in that tournament and also in Vina del Mar which is a decent enough showing from him in recent weeks, and despite having a miserable record against Ferrer they have played some close matches. Ferrer eventually found some form last week and if that continues then Chardy could be in line for a quick exit, but prior to that he didn't look all that good. Chardy is talented enough to beat Ferrer in my opinion, and if he can find some consistency in this match he might be able to cause an upset.

[homunculus]

Re: February 17 - February 23 WOW, this Lu character developped a habit to retire after finishing the first set irrespective of the result. Anyone knows what exatly were his problems vs Karlovic last week and today vs Harrison?

[Atko]

Re: February 17 - February 23 He retired with a neck injury against Karlovic. Don't know the reason for today's withdrawal, but suspect it'll be the same problem.

[CzechPunter]

Re: February 17 - February 23 Back Blaz Kavcic (+1.5 sets) to beat Richard Gasquet for a 3/10 stake at 2.75 with Unibet Back Blaz Kavcic to beat Richard Gasquet for a 2/10 stake at 6.87 with Pinnacle Kavcic looked decent in his first match here, while Gasquet struggled against both Thiemo de Bakker and Philipp Kohlschreiber in Rotterdam for some reason. He isn't particularly known for fast starts either, so I wouldn't be surprised by seeing him struggle against Kavcic on Wednesday. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/kavcic-vs-gasquet-betting-blaz-kavcic-could-pose-some-problems-to-richard-gasquet

[MisterBadham]

Re: February 17 - February 23 Think you should maybe leave Rhyne alone lol. Falla faced break points in every service game and as held once first set 6-3.

[CzechPunter]

Re: February 17 - February 23 Back Sara Errani (-4) to beat Sorana Cirstea for a 5/10 stake at 2.06 with Pinnacle Can't see Sorana Cirstea upsetting Errani here. Beating Roberta Vinci looks good on paper, but Vinci is yet to win a singles match in 2014, so that win wasn't a massive surprise. Errani will be a huge step up in terms of quality and Cirstea shouldn't be able to deal with the sheer consistency the Italian always brings to the table. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/errani-vs-cirstea-betting-sara-errani-has-what-it-takes-to-crush-sorana-cirstea-in-dubai

[Torque]

Re: February 17 - February 23 Daniel Gimeno-Traver to beat Rafael Nadal @ 34.00 Betfair Personally, I have to go against Nadal at a price like this when his last match was on a hard court several weeks ago and in that match he was having physical problems. I would think he is over those problems now, but if he isn't or if they flare up again then this could be a difficult match for the top seed. Gimeno-Traver has had plenty of matches on clay in the last couple of weeks and it's the surface he plays the most on, which is helpful when you're trying to beat someone of Nadal's stature. As much as playing Nadal can be a daunting prospect, playing him at a time like this when he has been inactive and suffered an injury as well as changing surface must offer the best chance of upsetting the odds.

[CzechPunter]

Re: February 17 - February 23

Think you should maybe leave Rhyne alone lol. Falla faced break points in every service game and as held once first set 6-3.

Nothing lost thankfully.

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Re: February 17 - February 23 ATP Marseille J-W.Tsonga v N.Davydenko – 19.02.14 – 15:00pm This match features Jo-Wilfried Tsonga ranked 10th on the ATP tour, he faces Nikolay Davydenko ranked 63rd on the ATP tour. Firstly Jo is going to be very motivated this week! He won this tournament last year therefore he has 250 points to defend and he is going to want to retain them. I am going with -3.5 games rather than 2-0 here as I am getting fed up of backing players to win 2-0 and they drop a set but win the game comfortably!! The fact that Tsonga won this tournament last year also shows that he is comfortable on this surface and indoors. He also reached the semi finals in 2012. Tsonga is from France so will be playing in front of a home crowd which should motivate him even more! Tsonga has won the last 3 meetings between these pair as well as covering the -3.5 game handicap on each occasion. One of these matches was at this tournament last year. Nikolay Davydenko has lost 8 in a row when Opponent is a Top 10 Player. Thanks to Tennis Insight for this stat. Nikolay Davydenko has lost 8 of last 9 when priced as Moderate Underdog ($3.00 to $5.999). Thanks to Tennis Insight for this stat. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has won 17 in a row when priced as Heavy Favourite (

[Torque]

Re: February 17 - February 23 Whilst I'm in the midst of such a long losing run on the big underdogs, I thought it would be good for my sanity to have a look at some other matches. I'm still looking for value, and hopefully at these lower odds I can find a winner or two. Dustin Brown to beat Roberto Bautista Agut @ 2.66 Betfair I quite like the look of Brown here. He's been playing indoors for the last few weeks and has posted a few wins, so he should feel quite comfortable in these surroundings. Bautista Agut hasn't won a match since his run to the fourth round at the Australian Open, and both Kohlschreiber and Brands beat him without too much trouble indoors in Davis Cup. Brown beat Bautista Agut in their only previous meeting which was also indoors, and I think he has every chance of repeating the trick in this match.

[MisterBadham]

Re: February 17 - February 23 Nice! When people retire it usually goes against you, only two games to go nice to see that. Some bookies do that first set completed rule though so some people would be losers, total rubbish if you ask me.

[WinningTipster]

Re: February 17 - February 23 1 pick for the ATP MARSEILLE MAHUT-DE SCHEPPER OVER 22 GAMES @ 1.61 on pinnaclesports Mahut is a favourite in this match, but it will be a long close match with De Schepper's big game suited very well for the fast indoors surface

[four-leaf]

Re: February 17 - February 23

1 pick for the ATP MARSEILLE MAHUT-DE SCHEPPER OVER 22 GAMES @ 1.61 on pinnaclesports Mahut is a favourite in this match, but it will be a long close match with De Schepper's big game suited very well for the fast indoors surface

I am not so sure it will be long.. Close maybe but I think Mahut can nick it in straight sets.

[four-leaf]

Re: February 17 - February 23 1 pick for the ATP MARSEILLE HAJEK-BERANKIS HAJEK +4.5 GAMES @ 2.05 on pinnacle Ricardas Berankis is a bit overrated here I belive. The czech veteran might bring some better play then expected according to odds here. The lithuanian has a pretty dull form coming in to this match. Even though he qualified here I think he will have it hard enough for Hajek to cover +4.5 in this match.

[Torque]

Re: February 17 - February 23 Nikolay Davydenko to beat Jo-Wilfried Tsonga @ 6.20 Betfair Despite Davydenko's star being on the wane, I still think he is able to get the odd big result. Indoors is where he has played some of his best tennis, and but for an inexplicable loss to Olivetti in Montpellier he has looked in reasonable shape recently. I wouldn't say that Tsonga is in the greatest form, and dropping a set against Florian Mayer before losing in straight sets against Cilic in Rotterdam wouldn't fill me with confidence if I was backing him today. He played Davydenko in this tournament last year and although he won it was close, and if it's close again then this time it might go the way of the Russian.

[Torque]

Re: February 17 - February 23 Dusan Lajovic to beat Tommy Robredo @ 7.60 Betfair Lajovic has played a lot on clay in the last couple of years, and he will likely need to fall back on that experience if he is to beat Robredo here. As much as I like the Spaniard, he does occasionally lose matches that you would think he would win like against Leonardo Mayer in Vina del Mar. He has played Lajovic once before in a Challenger on clay when he was making his way back from injury, and he won in straight sets. Realistically, he should be able to achieve the same result in this match, but I can't back him at the current prices. Lajovic has had to fight to reach this round and having got here, I don't think he will fold and so he should be able to give Robredo a tough match.

[Torque]

Re: February 17 - February 23 Jesse Huta Galung to beat Julien Benneteau @ 5.60 Betfair Both of these players look to be in poor form right now, and both were knocked out in the first round in Rotterdam last week. Benneteau hasn't won back to back matches all season, and although Huta Galung hasn't won a single match on the main tour this year he did have a run of wins at the Heilbronn Challenger a few weeks ago. Obviously Benneteau is at home and French players tend to go well in this tournament, but I think his price is too low and in my opinion Huta Galung is the kind of player that can come from nowhere to claim a big win. When two players that aren't playing all that well face each other, I think it pays to back the player with the bigger price and that's what I'll be doing here.

[Torque]

Re: February 17 - February 23 Federico Delbonis to beat David Ferrer @ 11.50 Betfair Delbonis hasn't played Ferrer before, and that's one of the reasons I like him at this price. He won't carry the scars of a losing record against the Spaniard into this match, something which I think benefited Ferrer in his last match against Chardy. Delbonis flew through his first match here against Clezar for the loss of only two games, and he had some good results on clay last season. I'm still not convinced by Ferrer's play at the moment, as he seems to be routinely under pressure in his service games. For me, he is grinding at the moment and although he is getting over the line in matches I would rather that he was playing better before backing him at such a short price. If Delbonis can get himself into a good position in his match then he might believe that he can actually win it, and that can be half the battle when you know you're not expected to win.