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AINTREE GRAND NATIONAL > 4:15pm Saturday April 5th


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Re: AINTREE GRAND NATIONAL > 4:15pm Saturday April 5th Generally, I so like trends and find them useful in narrowing the field down, however they do need to be used sensibly. I thought I'd post some food for thought on Tidal Bay and the fact that he is being discarded in places for being 13 years old, which I think is a flawed approach. Here is a list of the runners aged 13 in the last 10 years. 2013 - No qualifiers 2012 - Black apalachi 25-1 2011 - No qualifiers 2010 - No qualifiers 2009 - 1 runner - Eurotrek 80-1 2008 - No qualifiers 2007 - No qualifiers 2006 - Native Upmanship 100-1, Rince Ri 100-1 2005 - Amberleigh house 16-1 2004 - No qualifiers So in the last 10 years, 5 runners aged 13. The only one you could say was fancied to run well was Amberleigh House in 2005, who had won the race the year before. If I'm being generous then Black Apalachi too, although he was past his prime in 2012. If we averaged 1 qualifier every year, then all things being equal, we should have a 13 year old winner every 40 years. So based on only 5 qualifiers in the last 10 years we should have a 13 year old winner every 80 years (since 1933). When you consider the only qualifiers with a chance similar to Tidal Bays have been Amberleigh House in 2005 and at a push, Black Apalachi then the stat that says a 13 yo hasn't won since 1927, is in actual fact not a negative to Tidal Bays chances at all. If you want to discount Tidal for other reasons fair enough but to exclude him soley on the basis of being 13 years old is wrong and dangerous in my opinion. Sent from my RM-821_eu_euro1_342 using Tapatalk

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Re: AINTREE GRAND NATIONAL > 4:15pm Saturday April 5th The whole complex of the race changed when the handicapper started compressing the handicap, giving the higher rated horses a better chance. With this, some trends died and some are on the verge of dying. 1 trend that has come to the fore in the last 6 years, is the winners hurdle rating. Each winner has achieved a rating of at least 139 over hurdles. Going back even further, upto Lord Gyllene, each winner had at least 6 runs over hurdles. Added together with a national debutante or 1 who had previously failed to get round and no 2nd season chasers, we are left with, Tidal Bay, Long Run, Walkon, Wayward Prince, Across The Bay, Battle Group, Burton Port, Chance Du Roy and Golan Run. We can eliminate, Golan Run, Wayward Prince, Walkon Nd Across the Bay because they need small fields. Chance Du Roy who's trainer is out of form. This leaves 4 probable winners. Long Run can go because he's been going downhill since last years Aon. Winning a naff race at Kelso doesn't mean he's back to his best. Tidal Bay 14/1... Can only discount on age, but why? He's consistently run better than ever this season, beating 4 grade 1 winners in his races and beaten 0.5l in Welsh national, giving 15lbs and more. Just about every gold cup trial this season, proved that he would have been in the mix at Cheltenham. Nicholls changed his riding ways in the Irish Hennessey, running him prominently, which will suit him in the national. With the handicapper compressing the weights, he has given him a massive chance. Burton Port 20/1... No real opinion about him, except that he looks rejuvenated since leaving Henderson, who is adept at knackering a decent chaser. Battle Group 50/1... A lot will dismiss him for not running this year, but his record suggests that he wouldn't even win a walk over in the winter months. But, it's a different story come spring and Aintree. Aintree form...10211... 0 came in october, whilst the 2nd was to course specialist Saint Are. March to May...01413422111 Fields of 18+...41940111p Fields of 18+ march to may...414111 Between march and may over 24f+....1111. They are my 3 against the field and will be done in exactas and trifectas aswell.

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Re: Aintree Grand National > Saturday April 5th

Will be very interested to see what happens to Burton Port now the weights have been released. Plummeted in the weights. When Jonjo got him he said he was "alright" if I remember rightly (had been 2nd to Long Run, beaten 8l in a Gold Cup and 2nd in an Aintree bowl on his most recent starts). Now he's been battered around fields all season apparently he'd "have a squeak". Also had a wind op it seems. No doubt he's well-handicapped and wouldn't be at all surprised to see him find some improvement out of his backside but still have my concerns over him in a National. Stays well but isn't that big and isn't the best jumper in the world. You never know with those fences, though, some just take to them. But yeah, one to watch I reckon in the build-up.
Obviously put in that big run last time to make him of interest. Not sure what to do. Probably have a 1/2pt bet on him but I can't go overboard as doesn't look built for the National but we'll see. At least jumped better last time. I'm boring as anything 'cos I like Teaforthree. It's tough because Balthazar King is another favourite of mine...might have been happier had he been fresh. Will probably back Teaforthree, Burton Port with my heart and find another one on the formbook.
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Re: Aintree Grand National > Saturday April 5th Plenty in with a chance here but I’m sticking with my ante-post pick in Triolo D’Alene and trainer Nicky Henderson who will win the trainers tile if he can bag the National. He jumps well, won over the course and is still improving and is now a decent price. Of the bigger priced runners I’m going to back both Walkon and Alvarado each way as either could outrun their odds. Selections: 2pts Triolo D’Alene 25/1 Stan James 1pt EW Walkon 50/1 >Betfred (6 places) http://www.punterslounge.com/grand-national-betting-henderson

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Re: AINTREE GRAND NATIONAL > 4:15pm Saturday April 5th

Just had a further look through the entries and two that caught my eye were Same Difference (as mentioned above) and Pineau De Re. Unfortunately the latter is now much shorter based on his Cheltenham run but intriguing nevertheless' date= albeit his jumping may be an issue.
Caught my eye but I dismissed it! Met the stats I was looking at too. :wall Well done to anyone who got money out of it!
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Re: AINTREE GRAND NATIONAL > 4:15pm Saturday April 5th me but going into race felt a bit stupid as had 10 pts pineau de re at 25 6 points burton port at 33 6 points monbeg dude at 20 6 points balthazar king at 33 4 points big shu at 33 4 points double seven at 33 4 points chance du roy at 45 4 points alvarado at 40 apoplogies for aftertiming could have been a costly afternoon

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Re: AINTREE GRAND NATIONAL > 4:15pm Saturday April 5th a coupleof things to takeout of the race: the cross country race at cheltenham is a similar race (balthazar king big shu) the rainbow hunter has been very unlucky the last 2 years (maybe next year?) concentrate on horses with less than 11-03

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