Cricketing Capers

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Re: Cricketing Capers SA 398 all out, they lost 4 for 28 this morning on an unpredictable pitch. SA lead by 51 runs, which as I said WI need to erase for no loss asap, but with everything happening so quick this morning, the game situation is now intruiging: On a pitch with uneven bounce throughout, WI have to bat for a minimum of 1 day + 1 hour, otherwise they will set SA too easy a target in 2 sessions or more........ 150-0 by tea would be nice.......

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Re: Cricketing Capers Just got back in the country & SA about to win & nothing I could do about it since yesterday, still thats the way it goes....... WI were bowled out for 194, only setting SA 144 to win, they were in big trouble @ 82-5, rallied with Sarwan scoring 107 & then lost 4-24 this morning. Piss poor this morning really......Leaving me with a loss on this test of 7pnts I think. Couldnt play it exactly as I wanted as abroad & should have left it alone really, but I fancied it & played it so cant moan, & anyway I played it wrong here, & should have covered myself more on SA early on, & I could have took most of the loss out yesterday but thought WI would show more spine than they did........but no worries. NZ v SL. Another shortened day which might mean something by the end of this match, although seemingly well advanced now. NZ moved up to 253-4, after wobbling slightly somewhere around 130-4. So they have a lead of 42 with 6 wickets in hand, & will be looking for a minmum 200 lead by the close of day 3, leaving SL 2 days to bat out the test. The SLankans havent bowled badly today by all accounts so theres no real reason why they shouldnt bat better 2nd time around, but realistically they cant afford NZ to get more than 60-80 with their 6 remaining wickets, so they have to bowl well in the morning. Odds: NZ 1/4, draw 10/3, SL 12/1 (Bet365 only 13/2!!)

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Re: Cricketing Capers NZ v SL. Running totals: Draw - 2 bets. Liability 12pnts to win 20pnts. SL win - 2 bets. Liability 6.5pnts to win 32.9pnts. NZ win - no bets. Liability of 18.5pnts if NZ win. With odds of 1/4 on NZ tonight, obviously there is no option of using the remaining 13.5 pnts in the draw cover to cover NZ, so I have to sit tight & hope that SL have a good day with the ball, & then start well with the bat 2nd time around to raise the NZ odds. Although the fog in Wellington may yet play a part by bringing the draw into play. WI v SA. WI have taken a couple of SA wickets, but approaching tea SA need only 20-odd with 8 wickets in hand, so barring rain, a miracle is required. Running totals: Draw - 2 bets. Liability of 22pnts to win 22pnts. WI win - 3 bets. Liability of 10pnts to win 38pnts. SA win - 2 bets. Liability of 10pnts to win 25pnts. So the expected SA win will bring in 25pnts return with a liability of 32pnts, resulting in a loss of 7pnts. So Ive played this one wrong, but I could have virtually covered myself on an SA win & didnt, so bad judgement there, must have been the beer :( So not looking good in either match at present, but I have faith that I will produce profit in the end........ :ok Update table tomorrow........come on Sri Lanka!!

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Re: Cricketing Capers WI v SA. 2nd Test. Start Bank - 105pnts Current Bank - 98pnts Total Staked - 42pnts No.of Bets - 7 (3 if cum.) Winning bets - 2 (1 if cum.) Losing Bets - 5 (2 if cum.) Strike Rate - 28.56 (33.33 if cum.) Yield - -0.16 (I think) Profit/Loss - -7pnts Fair amount staked, made a loss of 7pnts which wipes out my last test profit plus an extra 2 points. Worse is likely to come as NZ declared on 522-9 with a lead of 311 & reduced SL to 10-1 with Jayasuriya already gone. No odds yet but they will be horrific.......so SL need to bat out of their skins to save me there as 2 days left although still a fair proportion of play being lost to bad light, but lots of work to be done for that to be an issue.

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Re: Cricketing Capers Overall Table after WI v SA 2nd Test. Start bank - 100pnts Current Bank - 98pnts Total staked - 85pnts Total Bets - 20 (9 if cum.) Winning bets - 4 (3 if cum.) Losing bets - 16 (6 if cum.) Strike Rate - 20% (33.33% if cum.) Yield - -0.08 Profit/Loss - -2.00pnts NZ v SL. As mentioned before, looking highly dodgy TBH. Looking as though I may take my first real heavy defeat in this system on this test. SL adrift by the small matter of 301 runs at the end of day 3 with one of their best bats, Jayasuriya, already gone.Current odds are: NZ 1/12, draw 11/2, SL 40/1.......so no way of covering myself on a NZ win with my current liability 18.5pnts. Looking at it harshly, obviously I made the wrong choice at the outset of this test, & as Mr.Onemore said elsewhere, I'm playing serious catch up after that, with no odds to play with. NZ were available @ 2/1 at the start of the test, but have been serious odds on since, being 1/4 on the first night, so as not having them at the start has allowed me no leeway. This is obviously the nature of the beast, & although I am not giving up on SL just yet with 2 days to go, they need to up there game just slightly ;) to get anything from this. Its not as far fetched as some would have you believe that they can get out of this, but being 301 adrift, if they are not bowled out they will go into the lead somewhere midway through the first session on the 5th day, & so would not be safe until an hour before tea on this final day, holding a lead of 175+. Obviously thats a long way away especially with Jayasuriya in the hutch already, & I would say to survive SL have to navigate tomorrow with the loss of only 2 more wickets, 3 at the absolute most. Fanciful maybe, but in the first test SL were 105-2 & put on 184 for the third wicket, which would take up 2 sessions +, so its not impossible by any means, but very daunting looking at the moment, granted. Against all that, the first test was a better wicket, & although this has more in it for the bowler, it cant be too bad if NZ got 500+!! SL dont bat as deep as some teams & its a top 6 only really, so thats another downside. Good sunny forecast tomorrow, but that could help deaden the pitch for the batsmen, & also fog has cost 41 overs so far in 3 days, so 20 wouldnt go amiss tomorrow :lol . Its difficult in this situation but relying only on overnight odds I'm struggling if I dont get the first decision right, but even if it goes wrong for me in the next 2 days, I'm not downheartened as I know I will get the money back on future tests on past results. I'm just dissapointed that it appears that I got the decision wrong, although Sri Lankan pride may have something to say yet. Regarding the WI-SA loss, I think that I should have covered it whilst I had the chance, but doing it in a rush whilst on the beer abroad probably didnt help :lol but no excuses, just a couple of bum calls :ok So at present on NZ v SL I'm looking at an 18.5pnt loss if NZ win, a 13.5pnt win on the draw, & a 20.9pnt win on a very unlikely SL win...... Anybody any thoughts, or if you just want to slag me off in general, feel free.....

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Re: Cricketing Capers SL were bowled out for 273, losing by an innings & 38 runs. I had a look at lunch at 3 down & knew they were doomed, so there you go........ Summary & table later.

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Re: Cricketing Capers Overall table after NZ-SL: Start Bank - 100pnts Current Bank - 79.5pnts Total Staked - 103.5pnts Bets - 24 (11 if cum.) Winning Bets - 4 (3 if cum.) Losses - 20 (8 if cum.) Strike Rate - 12.48% (27.27% if cum.) Yield - -0.19 Profit/Loss - -20.5pnts Pretty pissed off TBH, I havent made as bad a call as that before in tests, & I go & do it in a f*****g system ffs!! :lol No laughing matter really, but there you go...... I dont think Ive ever got myself into a position where Ive actually lost my entire stake in a match before, but playing the UK night & only relying on overnight odds did have a fair bit to do with it, but no excuses, you have to take the rough with the smooth..... Not too dissulusioned (sp.?) really, as Ive got the faith that I'll turn it round but not the best of starts, but I think I didnt start at a good time, effectively laying the draw after covering it, & the first 2 were draws, making a bum call on the 2nd WI-SA test by not covering my liability when I had the chance, & taking the wrong choice at the outset of the 2nd NZ-SL test & never having the chance to get back in it. Mentioning the 2nd NZ-SL test, Ive thought it through & the reasons why I picked SL ahead of NZ still stand up TBH, I felt they were 2 evenly matched sides, neither with a brilliant bowling attack, possibly SL having the more consistent batting top order, & SL coming out of the first test stronger as they were positively looking for a result when NZ were happy to coast for a draw, only a decent knock from an injured Fleming holding up enough time for NZ to survive.......& then SL bat first & get blown away for 211 against an average attack & then concede 522 off their own!! Bum call it may have been, but I'm not sure you could see that coming..... If I had started the system before the India-Pakistan series, I would be comfortably up & not looking the idiot I do now, so that re-assures me. The third test WI v SA starts next thursday & I'll have a think as I go on, & possibly try & recoup on IND-PAK one dayers, & might even see if theres any value in the new English one-day season starting sunday. Think Ive learnt something here whilst losing my stake on this test, so its not all bad.....;)

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Re: Cricketing Capers Right, fancy a couple of games on sunday, all one-dayers, so will group them all together. Bet 1: Pakistan @ 5/6 Stan James. 3pnts bet to win 2.5pnts + stake returned. Mr.Os been on these & Ive fancied Pakistan all along even when they lost the first 2 games. They lead the series 3-2 with this one to play, & Ive only not bet on these before due to the tests being hectic & I didnt fancy it enough to confuse issues. The other bets are in the National League here in England, & I'm keeping stakes small as the weather is a serious factor, but these games can be played down to a minimum of 10 overs, when anything might happen TBH. Also a lot of the overseas players havent yet arrived, with Shane Warne at Hampshire, also being captain, being an exception. Bet 2: Durham @ 8/11 to beat Leicestershire away. Stan James. 2 pnts bet to win 1.44pnts + stake Durham just started the season well in the 4-day game with a resounding win over these opponents, with Mike Hussey excelling with the bat, & I fancy them to do so again in the shortened game. Leicester are a hard-boiled outfit but a touch too long in the tooth for me. Toyed with Lancs-Glamorgan as this is the top 2 last season, & could well be again, but the Flintoff possibility put me off Glamorgan & Lancs are too short IMO. Keep coming back to Hants-Essex. Hants had a good opening 4-day win against Gloucs, & warne is obviously formidable, & Essex's OD record last year was not great in this competition, but I feel they are over-priced here, so...... Bet 3: Essex @ 5/4 to beat Hampshire away. Stan James. 1pnt bet to win 1.25pnts + stake. (This after knowing that Totesport took a £4000 e/w shop bet on Hants for this comp!) So I'll stick both Durham & Essex in doubles & a treble with Kent to win away at Derbyshire on the simple presumption that I think Derbyshire are s***e & would finish bottom if not for Scotland. Come to think of it......Scotland might not be that bad...... Bet 4: Durham @ 8/11, Essex @ 5/4 & Kent @ 2/5. 3 x 0.5pnt doubles & a 0.5pnt treble. Total liability on bet 4 = 2pnts. Total liability on the day = 8pnts.

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Re: Cricketing Capers Do fancy Warwicks as well TBH but the words Andy & Caddick on a damp day kept punching me when I was trying to press the bet button.

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Re: Cricketing Capers Yeh, yeh, the Swoop is back......... :( sorry, aaahh, memories :lol Good day for me today, with no losses.....its good to know the old hunch-ometer still works ;) Bet 1: Pakistan gave India a right kicking, scoring 303-8 & bowling India out for 144.....3pnts staked. Returned 5.5pnts (+2.5pnts) Bet 2: Durham beat Leicestershire in a rain affected game on the Duckworth/Lewis system. Leics posted 175-8, Durham were 85-3 off 22-ish, & won by 9 runs. 2pnts staked. Returned 3.45pnts (+1.45pnts) Bet 3: Essex surprised Hampshire in another rain affected game, Hants scoring 175-9, Essex being 69-2 off 16ovs & winning by around 22 runs on the D/L method. 1pnt staked. Returned 2.25pnts (+1.25pnts) Bet 4: Durham & Essex, together with Kent (which was abandoned as a no-result) in doubles & a treble. So it was converted to singles & doubles, obviously. 4 bets overall in Bet 4, each of 0.5pnts, totalling 2pnts staked. Reurned 5.87pnts (+3.87pnts) Of the others that I mentioned, Somerset had set Warwicks 254-5 when abandoned, so not looking too good there, & Lancashire were in trouble against Glamorgan when the rain stopped that also, so all in all, not a bad day :ok Todays bets: Start bank - 79.5pnts Current bank - 88.57pnts (+9.07pnts) Total Staked - 8pnts Bets - 7 (4 if cum.) Winning bets - 7 (4 if cum.) Losing Bets - 0 Strike Rate - 100% Yield - +1.13375 Profit/Loss - +9.07pnts

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Re: Cricketing Capers Overall Table after today: Start Bank - 100pnts Current Bank - 88.57pnts Total Staked - 111.5pnts Bets - 31 (15 if cum.) Winning bets - 11 (7 if cum.) Losing Bets - 20 (8 if cum.) Strike Rate - 34.48% (46.67% if cum.) Yield - -0.1025 Profit/Loss - -11.43pnts If any of this doesnt make sense, please pull me up on it........cos this yield business still baffles me TBH. County Championship midweek to have a look at, then the 3rd West Indies v South africa test starts thursday........

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Re: Cricketing Capers WI v SA 3rd Test. Opened at Stan James: WI 7/2 draw 6/5 SA 11/8 I have put stats up in Other Sports but a few to note: Last 4 tests have all been results. Not a massively high-scoring ground, 350 looks a decent score in the last few years, barring Australia in 2002/3, who whacked up 605-9, but hey.....they do that to everybody :lol After saying that its not particularly high-scoring, there have been some low scores, but it doesnt seem to deteriorate throughout the match. Weather is scattered showers, with sun from saturday onwards, so some time will probably be lost. The last 4 tests, all results, have been completed in 227, 400, 340 & 270 overs, so @ 90 ovs per day, time can afford to be lost & still a result. SA have Shaun Pollock back (landing today) the best bowler on either side, whereas WI lose Pedro Collins, who is replaced by Fidel Edwards, who I'm under the impression hasnt played since England last summer. Tempted on SA already to be honest.......... Also, I'm going to add a new stat to the table which will be called a 'Match Outcome Strike Rate'. The reason for this is that backing tests like I do I will normally have 2 losing bets to 1 winning one, whilst ending up in profit, so my strike rate ends up looking really numptyish TBH. So if I end a match in profit, I will term that a winning bet, & in arrears a losing bet, & if I finish all square a level bet. So, the current Match outcome strike Rate is: Matches - 7. Wins - 4 Losses - 2 Level - 1 S/R - 57.12% For this instance I have not counted the Derby/Kent match as it was a no result, & I did not have a single on it, so the involved bets ended up as winners due to the other bets.

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Re: Cricketing Capers Checked up on Bet365 & they are offering only 23/20 on SA. So Stans 11/8 looks good & I have a feeling that the SA price will shorten, so........ SA v WI Bet 1: SA win @ 11/8. 9pnts bet. Liability 9pnts to win 12.38pnts Have a feeling that this isnt a bad price at the out set & will take it now & top-up in-running. Will think about draw cover & also think that I will have plenty of time on WI.

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Re: Cricketing Capers Something I forgot to mention when rambling about this test: Its been scattered showers for the last few days & through to the test, so the pitch should be under covers a decent amount, & only 3 toss winning captains have batted first since 1978. Put all this together with Pollock coming back & Ntini having took 13 wickets last time out, & my gut feeling is that theres no value in taking WI now @ 7/2 when if they bat first, they will lengthen big time ;)

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Re: Cricketing Capers WI v SA. Forecast still the same, & the draw unchanged @ 6/5, so decided to take my draw cover now in case more rain forecast changes the odds. Bet 2: Draw @ 6/5. Stan James. 18pnt bet. Liability 18pnts to win 21.6pnts. May take a smaller cover on WI before the test to guard against a quick start, but have a hunch that they may lengthen yet.

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Re: Cricketing Capers County Championship Week 2. Couple of teams take my fancy here....well, 3 to be precise, but I'm talking myself out of Durham v Worcestershire because as much as I fancy Chaminda Vaas to do well for Worcs here, hes only just come off the plane from NZ, & more to the point, if Harmison bowls well, I'm not too convinced about Hick & the Worcs boys, so....... Bet 1: Warwickshire to beat Kent away @ 4/7, together with Hampshire to beat Sussex away @ 8/11. Draw no bet. both Stan James. 3pnt double. 3pnt liability to win 5.1pnts Just cannot see Warwicks losing @ Kent, so just remains to be seen if the weather allows enough play for a result, & with Warne & Pietersen playing for Hampshire, I think they'll get the better of the 2003 champions Sussex, although theyre a good batting side, but may miss Ian Ward.

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Re: Cricketing Capers Championship Worcester were bowled out for 171 & conceded 133-2 on day 1, so I was right to swerve that one. Kent scored 334-9 v Warwicks but still think Warwicks will bat well & probably overhaul that & put up a decent attempt @ victory, certainly dont think they'll lose. Hampshire started well, bowling Sussex out for 252 (Ward played) & reaching the close @ 65-1. Dont fancy anything on the revised odds overnight TBH. WI v SA Pollock is definetly fit he says, but apparently SA are considering leaving him out so as not to change a winning side, but cant believe that myself, think he'll be there in the morning. Stan James have slightly lengthened the draw to 13/10 so I maybe jumped in a little early there. Current bets: Bet 1: SA win. 9 pnts @ 11/8. Liability 9pnts to win 12.38pnts Bet 2: Draw. 18 pnts @ 6/5. liability 18pnts to win 21.60pnts So obviously I have a 27pnt liability on a WI win, & 12.6pnts available to use within the draw cover, so I'm tempted to give myself a little insurance on WI. Bet 365 have them @ 4/1, so I think I'll give myself a little platform on them to take away the problem of WI having a brilliant start & ruling the match from there, like when I lost on NZ in slightly different circumstances, so.... Bet 3: WI win. 4/1 Bet365. 2.6pnts. Liability 2.6pnts to win 10.4pnts. I'm just a little reluctant to have nothing on WI after what happened with NZ, whilst the odds are decent. So I have 10pnts left to play within the draw cover, & I can obviously go over that if required.

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Re: Cricketing Capers County Championship. Worcester hammered by an innings....phew!! Kent scored 347 all out, Warwicks started well, 180-1 @ one point, but stuttered a little to 288-7, Knight got 100. Stan James still make them favourites. Hants recovered from 80 odd -4 to 280 all out, a lead of 28, Sussex are 101-2 in reply. Stan says 5/6 the pair. Sitting tight on these. WI v SA Missed a trick here & no mistake. WI won the toss & batted, & were 12-3, & must have been around 10/1!! but I was at a funeral & missed it........oh, well.....seems a tad ungrateful to moan! Lara did his heaven on earth bit & they are currently 255-5 off 79ovs, Lara still there on 148. Stan says 11/4 WI & 13/8 SA. Tempted but will probably wait & hope they get nearer 2/1 before taking SA. Problem is if Lara falls, so will the odds....rapidly!! Pissed off about the 12-3, cos I could have took WI there & then & covered myself for as much as I would have liked on them for virtually nothing, but youd end up not going to the loo for a working week if you wanted doing this!! Hoping that WI get around 375, pushing SA out to 3/1 or more, cant see the WI bowling doing SA too cheaply but wouldnt be at all surprised to see WI fail second time around, it seems like Chanderpaul, Sarwan & the Black Bradman or bust TBH.

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Re: Cricketing Capers Sh*t, Laras gone for 176 off 224 balls.....hats off to him though :clap WI now 288-6 off 81ovs, & I should have struck whilst the iron was hot, methinks, because in a massive reaction by Stan The Man, WI now 5/1, draw 2/1, SA 4/6 :eek shouldnt have hesitated :cry Cant see the point, at near close of play, of taking WI @ 5s now, as I think they will go for 325ish, & presumably lengthen slightly more, & I can take them around 8s for about 3.5pnts & get a small profit back in on WI. then hope for a WI fightback to lengthen SA back out. Cant help feeling that although Laras wicket is massive, WI still have nearly 300 & SA have to get them yet, so it was more of a reaction than I thought would happen TBH

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Re: Cricketing Capers Just to prove that Stan over-reacted, WI lost another wicket after I posted the above, Dwayne Bravo for 26, the senior batsman of the new pair, & closed on 292-7, yet their overnight odds havew come in to 9/2, so work that out. Draw shortened slightly to 15/8, SA 8/11 (I think....) so must be weight of money on the draw or they screwed up, one or the other......... Think WI will go on to 325ish as stated before, but theyve got the runs & SA are yet to bat, so you would fancy SA to bat well but they are on nothing at present so think theyre a bit too short myself. So.......... Bet 2a: Draw top-up. 2pnts @ 15/8. Liability 20pnts to win 25.35pnts (+10pnts) bet 3a: WI win top-up. 3.75pnts @ 9/2. Liability 6.35pnts to win 27.28pnts (-1.72pnts) So current scores on the doors are: SA win. 9pnts staked to win 12.38pnts, with a loss of 13.97pnts, with 10pnts remaining on the draw cover. WI win. 6.35pnts staked to win 27.28pnts, with a loss of 1.72pnts. Draw. 20pnts staked to win 25.35pnts, in profit of 10pnts. Worried about WI starting well & the odds dropping as I'm out for a few hours & would miss out, so took now. Just want a few wickets, around 150-5 would be nice, take SA @ around 2/1 & then they achieve parity on 1st innings. You can always hope........

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Re: Cricketing Capers WI v SA Bet 3b: WI win. 1pnt @ 20/1. Liability 7.35pnts to win 47.28pnts WI were blown away this morning, losing their last 3 wickets for 4 runs, 296 all out. SA have methodically progressed to 210-1 off 72ovs, Smith gone for 104, De Villiers on the brink of a ton. Not looking good here at the moment, not much left today but SA only 80-odd adrift with 9 in hand, & odds around 2/7 at present. I badly need a WI fightback here, I have some on SA but would be on a loss of 14.97 pnts on a SA win, although I have 9 pnts left in the draw cover to play with, but need odds of over evens. No choice but to sit & wait.......Fancied SA strongly here but with the forecast scattered rain I went for the draw cover. A clear forecast & I would have gone big on SA & then covered myself on the others........not over yet though. Took WI @ 20s as if they make a fightback Ive got a nice margin on them now. In for a penny, in for a pound..... County Championship. Warwicks were bowled out for 309, conceding 38. Kent are 308-6, 346 ahead, Van Jaarsveld scored his second ton of the match. Odds of 11/4 Warwicks, 2/9 Kent, but think Warwicks will survive TBH, think their batting is too good to fail here & lose. Sussex scored 312 second dig, setting Hants 285 to win, they are 89-3 overnight, so in the balance. But Stan offers 2/1 Sussex, 1/3 Hants.......not sure thats right myself. So, banking on Warwicks surviving........I'll cover myself on Hampshire I think Bet 2: Sussex win. 2/1. 1.5 pnts to win 3pnts.

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Re: Cricketing Capers SA closed on 253-1, so Windies in it deep :cry they need a big fightback to day, for both me & them.......I would have been in a much better position if I'd piled into SA at the outset & then laid off on WI & the draw, which are now 25/1 & 5/2 respectively, but thats hindsight.....the forecast was scattered rain so thats why I took the draw although I had a healthy chunk of SA as well. The problem is in an even match if you dont take the draw at the outset you wont get on it until odds-on, & then you really are chasing your tail!! The problem with WI is that they are very unpredictable, at times brilliant, at others almost Zimbabwe-ish, which makes it very difficult to judge. SA will look to bat all day today, moving their score up to 500-550, maybe slightly into the morning, declare if not all out, & WI need to bat 2 days to save the test, an act that doesnt seem probable without Lara playing a major innings once again, which has to be longer odds as hes already done it once here & to do that twice in one match is improbable at best....the phrase 'rocking horse sh*t' comes to mind! Still where theres life theres hope, but to bat 2 days with their fragile confidence after fielding for 2 days is some ask, & its difficult to see other than a SA win with no weather intervention. There are 2 plusses for WI, SA batted relatively slowly yesterday & are not an aggressive, positive team, so if they want a lead of 300 it will take them until lunch on day 4 most likely, leaving only 5 sessions rather than 2 days. The other is that SA are a weaker bowling side without Pollock. Against all that, without Lara & Chanderpaul, 9 WI batsmen totalled 67 between them first time around. My best case scenario here is for WI to bowl out of their skin here & bowl SA out for 450, a deficit of 150, which they knock off for worst case scenario, 2 down. If this happened, if WI do not get into the lead with Lara & Chanderpaul intact they are in desperate trouble. No choice but to sit tight, & hope.........come on WI!!

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Re: Cricketing Capers WI v SA SA moving on slowly to 453-5, so WI are at least taking some wickets :lol although the first one for ages was a run out. But AB De Villiers made his highest first class score of 178, & ominously Kallis is still going on 60 with Boucher having just come in, so 550 & a lead of 250 is certainly within their grasp, probably more TBH. Thing is, way theyre going, 1 hour left tonight, so 500ish by then, they'll probably bat until lunch tomorrow unless bowled out, which leaves 5 sessions for WI to survive. The odds reflect this, currently WI 33/1, draw 2/1, SA 4/11. Now earlier in the day you could get 11/4 the draw & 2/7 SA, so certainly Stan James thinks theyre batting too slowly by the looks of things. Ive looked at the weather but CNN says just sun & clouds, no rain, so can only be the way SA are batting thats lengthening the odds, albeit slightly. Going on the WI body language, you cant see them surviving for the draw, but occasionally they produce something brilliant, but Lara & Chanderpaul & probably Sarwan have to contribute large! The plus point is that if I was a SAfrican I would feel happier with Pollock out there, as theyre bowling still looks ordinary to me, its only that most of the West Indies have surrendered thus far that makes it look good, but theres still 2 days in the field & heat to take into account, & thats another reason why I dont think SA will declare tonight & let the WI openers have a nights rest before batting, they will put them in just before lunch so as to have another 100 minutes fielding before 10 minutes rest & batting to save the match. So, currently have: SA win. 9pnts to win 12.38pnts (-14.97pnts) Draw. 20pnts to win 25.35pnts (+9pnts) WI win. 7.35pnts to win 47.28pnts (+18.28pnts) So have 9 points on the draw cover to play, but no real point whilst SA are 4/11, pulling back around 3pnts only. Might as well sit tight for the moment & hope WI can pull themselves around & head for the draw, & take the remaining profit on that, or at least put up a fight & push SA out towards evens, as I would take that like a shot & settle on losing just 6pnts or going over on the SA win & live with the result if the draw happens. Would definetly have been better on just SA at the outset, but have explained the weather problem & the reasons, but that looks to be the way to go, but I kick myself because just before Lara fell, he'd pushed SA out to 13/8, & I was holding for 7/4 like a greedy twat, & if I'd took SA then I'd have covered myself, if not with much profit on SA. County Warwicks held on @ 233-9 for the draw, & Hants ended up 18 short but 8 down, so another draw & both bets returned stake, so 4.5pnts back in the bank, which funnily enough makes me feel slightly better.

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Re: Cricketing Capers County. National League. Sunday matches, a few catch my eye here, Ive put all the odds up in OS, but: Middlesex @ 5/4 v Lancs look big to me, they were in trouble on the first 2 days v Notts just gone & did well to recover, so good morale, they also beat Notts last sunday whereas Lancs were in trouble v Glamorgan before being abandoned. Durham @ Evs v Surrey. Durham have won both 4-dayers & last weeks NL game so far, so will be confident. I would be happier knowing for a fact that Harmy & Colly playing but they look big also. Leicester look very big @ 6/4 away to Kent. Kent had conceded 200 to Derby last week before rain, & Leics arent to be written off, winning the 20/20 last year. I was against them with Durham last week but that was on Durhams confidence TBH. Sussex only 2/5 v Derby, but Sussex have Ward, Adams, Goodwin, Mushtaq & Kirtley, whereas Derby have De Venuto & IMO are shite, & I'll keep saying that until they prove me wrong. Think Yorkshire are batting well, big scores in both games so far, & have just walloped Somerset in the Championship, but Somerset have some decent players & Jayasuriya cant keep screwing up, & although I was having Yorks earlier, I've decided theyre too short @ 1/2 & swerve, swerve, swerve. So: Bet 1: Middlesex to beat Lancashire @ 5/4 Stan James. 1pnt to win 1.25pnts. Bet 2: Durham to beat Surrey @ Evs Stan James. 1pnt to win 1pnt. Bet 3: Sussex to beat Derby @ 2/5 Stan James. 5pnts to win 2pnts. Bet 4: Middlesex, Durham & Sussex in 3 x 0.5pnt doubles & 1 x 0.5pnt treble. Outlay Bet 4: 2pnts Total outlay 9pnts.

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Re: Cricketing Capers That should actually have included leicestershire as well, so: Bet 5: Leics to beat Kent @ 6/4 Stan James. 1pnt to win 1.5pnts. Total outlay for the day is 10pnts, sorry.

[swooperman]

Re: Cricketing Capers SA 504-7 with 4 overs to go if light permits, so around about what I thought. Think they'll bat until just before lunch tomorrow unless bowled out. You could say its in WI interests to not bowl them out!!

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Re: Cricketing Capers So there I was this morning, thinking nice easy day, off tomorrow, alls well with the world. No point in looking at the test until this evening, when SA will have long since declared, & on a batsmans friendly pitch, WIs may have got to 150-1, & SA will be pushed out to 4/6..............not a f*****g bit of it!! If I ever mention relying on this shower of s**t WI team somebody do me a link to this post ffs :lol SA declared on 548-9, a lead of 252, & WI slumped again to 17-3, & are currently 119-7 @ tea. I had decided to sit & wait & hope that WI could mount some sort of a fightback that would at least push SA out & recoup some of my losses, so that means a loss of 14.97pnts. I kick myself really as posted above that I could have taken SA @ 13/8 just before Lara fell 1st time around, but didnt :( Now this is the second test that Ive said that Ive learnt something but I realise that I played this wrong. I fancied SA at the start & should have had faith in them & lumped on them @ 11/8, & laid off within that. I think Ive been too pre-occupied in safety first by taking the draw large at the start of tests, when by my own admission Ive been looking to lay the draws as I go on. I did it the way I have due mainly to the weather forecast but that hasnt materealised, I dont think I'm doing too much wrong but I'm muddling my thinking on the first bet I think, & then reading the game correctly as we go through but Ive generally left myself too much to do by then. Its easy to say but I wasnt struggling like this before doing this system, but I think its because I'm putting my bets up to scrutiny that I'm being more cautious. Anyway, thats my problem, so there you go..... Luckily I'm on not a bad run on the domestic scene, so that helps the situation. 3 out of 4 winners today, & the other unlucky by all accounts. Bet 1:Middlesex scored 210-9 after being 37-6!! Then bowled Lancs out for 141. 1pnt staked returned 1.25pnts + stake. :D Bet 2: Durham scored 224-8 after being 77-4. then bowled Surrey out for 86. 1pnt staked returned 1pnt + stake :D Bet 3: Sussex scored 254-8, then it rained. Derbys revised total was 205 off 32ovs, & they finished 203all out off 32ovs, so closer than I thought! 5pnts staked returned 2pnts + stake. :D Bet 4: doubles of the 3 above paid 5.23pnts to a 1.5pnt stake inclusive. The 0.5pnt treble paid 3.15pnts inclusive. Bet 5: leicester scored 214-8, & after rain, Kent scored 150-4 to win by D/L by 6 runs, so a little unlucky but I won on D/L last week so cant moan. Loss of 1pnt.

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Re: Cricketing Capers With the WIs 143-8 with 3& a 1/2 sessions to go I'm going to update the table taking for granted that theyve lost, so if a miracle does happen, I'll be back holding Jesus' hand as he walks across the water....... Start Bank - 100pnts Current Bank - 83.23pnts Total Staked - 162.35pnts (50.85pnts this week) Bets - 43 (21 if cum.) Wins - 18 ( 10 if cum.) Losses - 22 (10 if cum.) S/R - 41.86% (47.62% if cum.) Yield - -0.1032 P/L - -16.77 (-5.34 for the week) Matches - 14 Wins - 7 Losses - 4 Level - 3 S/R - 50% So the domestic has pulled me out of the mire again, & although it feels as though i'm doing badly, I'm not getting hammered, although any loss is not good. The tests rely on evenly competing sides, & WIs are flattering to deceive TBH. I'm still confident I can make this work & get decent profit, & I am adapting as I'm going along, another WI-SA test starts friday , followed by 1-dayers, then Pakistan visit WI, & obviously all the English season matches. Ive made this work in the past, & I'll do so again, & although I feel a little down-hearted, I have to remember that I'm only 16pnts down. Still, it keeps me amused.......roll on wednesday!!

[ian3012]

Re: Cricketing Capers keep your chin up swoop:D .... thx for yesterdays domestic tips.... i backed em all.:clap ..... i'm reading your thread every day....i'm a big cricket fan, but know nothing about betting on it.... so i'm learning as you go through the matches.... hopefully in time for the ashes.:hope the west indies are so unpredictable... it's a nightmare for punting. whilst england are hopefully a different side thesedays... it wouldn't surprise me one bit if we did a Windies impression this summer... so it could all be a rehearsal mate!:eyes great knowledge and reviews.... keep going son!:notworthy ps... that book i mentioned earlier in the thread.... he favours laying the draw.. and takes you thru a few matches doing it.

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Re: Cricketing Capers Cheers, Ian, I was beginning to think I was hearing an echo TBH :lol I'm ordering that book from Play.com in the next couple of days. Anything with Australia in without a bad forecast I would be looking to lay the draw anyway TBH. I'm coming to the conclusion that I've been trying to be too clever, which is something thats never suited me :lol Mr O. mentioned that I had to get the first decision right, but I was trying to do it by coupling the draw with that first decision. So in that last test, I really fancied SA but didnt go in as big as I did on the draw, meaning I was always playing catch up. The problem is that if you dont take the draw at the outset you rarely see that price for it again whilst in any way viable, but I'm beginning to think that laying it will pay off more times than it wont as previously discussed, & the occasional draw producing a loss will not be unbearable. Anyway, we'll see......onwards!! The problem with WI v SA 4th test is its now a dead test, which a side like WI generally do well in, so arguably this should be the test that I back the draw :lol At least Merlin must be happy, his boys are having a stormer, & luckily I've been on them a couple of times.