Cricketing Capers

[swooperman]

Re: Cricketing Capers WI v SA. Final day - lunch: SA 169-3 off 103 overs. Really boring I guess unless really committed this now. WI only picked up 1 wicket this morning, that of Rudolph who disappeared with his red nose......Kallis & Gibbs together now, WI need to seperate them within the hour really, but had a chance to get Kallis & missed it, not sure they'll get another. Gibbs at least gives you a chance. If they can seperate them, Boucher, as well as he batted first knock, is one too high for me at 6, & although Hall & Boje can bat.....the rest certainly cant, so still a long way to go but doesnt feel good. NZ v SL. Quite worried about this one TBH......only 1 day gone so plenty still to play & no need to panic but have a nagging feeling Ive played it wrong :( NZ have put themselves in a strong position for a decent score but they havent got it yet, & they will want at least another 200 from this position (267-3). I have a hunch that they will get 450 tops which, although a good score here, is not necessarily a match-score, allowing Sri Lanka to attempt to bat themselves into a parity situation or beyond. SL have a decent top order but didnt bat in their one warm up game due to rain, & theoretically are coming in cold, so time will tell. I covered the draw here again due to the fact that I dont think the price will improve while still at all viable, but in hindsight I think I should have had a bit of NZ instead of SL, @ 13/8, because if they do go on to set a big score then I will not see a price that I can cover myself with. For instance, with 18 pnts staked already, & 9pnts remaining within the draw cover, obviously I need minimum of 2/1 to cover myself. Still, thats the nature of the beast, & if it doesnt work & NZ are romping home I'll either have to bear it or take odds on to bale myself out, but the trick is deciding when......obviously :lol Against all of that, I do think the Stan James quote of 10/1 on SL overnight is too long, as NZ are in a good position, but theyve struggled against Malinga already & Vaas is a class act as we know, & on top of that the new ball is due in 6 overs......so I feel happier already :D I fancy a couple of quick wickets in the morning & it wouldnt surprise me at 375-400 all out yet, as only Vincent to come can hold it substantially IMO.....or is that all hope :unsure :lol I suppose its trepidation due to the fact that I'm relying on overnight odds rather than strictly in-running...... current NZ v SL breakdown: draw: liability 12pnts to win 15pnts. Sri Lanka: liability 6pnts to win 27.375pnts New Zealand: no liability as yet May play Sri Lanka again yet.......

[swooperman]

Re: Cricketing Capers WI v SA. Tea - final day. Kallis & Gibbs still there. SA now on 214-3 off 133 overs, with 28 overs of the day remaining. It would take something remarkable for a result now, but although I have referred to Kallis as a bully with the bat, you have to admire his sheer bloody-mindedness here. Looks as though the 1st test in the system will end as a draw & therefore no gain, but no loss either, but I was happy with the situation I got myself into, & if I was nit picking I would say that I took the plunge on SA too early. But....no harm done. I will do a breakdown when the match is over in the morning, probably. NZ v SL. After thought, in for a penny, in for a pound....... Bet 2c: Sri Lanka @ 10/1. 1pnt top-up bet. breakdown going into day 2: draw: 12pnts liability to win 15 pnts (+8pnts at present) Sri Lanka: 7pnts liability to win 37.375pnts (+25.375pnts at present) New Zealand: no pnts staked. Liability if NZ win 19pnts.

[swooperman]

Re: Cricketing Capers West Indies v South Africa ended a draw, with SA only losing 1 more wicket, just before the close. Boring it was......:( but there you go. Got a feeling that the WI may regret not finising SA off when they had them on the ropes, but time will tell. Final match breakdown: Draw: 1 bet of 10 pnts @ 11/10. Winner. Returned 21.00pnts. Profit 11.00pnts. West Indies: 3 bets totalling 4.5 pnts @ 9/1, 4/1, 7/2. Loser. Total loss 4.5 pnts. South Africa: 2 bets of 6.5 pnts @ 11/4 & 8/1. Loser. Total Loss 6.5 pnts. Profit: 11 pnts. Loss: 11 pnts. Profit/Loss: even Bank: still 100pnts.(not including NZv SL bets) Total staked: 21pnts No.of bets: 6 (3 if counting as cumulative) Winning bets: 1 Losing bets: 5 (2 if cumulative) Strike rate: 16.66% (33.33% if cumulative) Yield: ?? Think this is right, but will endeavour to correct next time. Not too sure about yield TBH. Is it fair for me to count cumulative bets as 1 bet, cos thats always going to happen & make the strike rate look terrible but thats the nature of the system.

[swooperman]

Re: Cricketing Capers NZ v SL. Still got that sinking feeling :( NZ did better than I expected after being 330-odd-5 at one point they made 561all out. McCullum got 99 & Astle completed his ton. Easily the biggest score here, & a decent total & no mistake. NZ had 12 overs at SL at the death where they progressed to 48-0, a decent run rate. Obviously a decent pitch, am very hopeful Sri Lanka will bat themselves out of this & they will get 450+. Will think of my strategy although I think I know what I will do here & return later with odds.

[Datapunter]

Re: Cricketing Capers Yield is simply the total return on your bets divided by the total amount staked. If the return is bigger than the stake its positive, otherwise negative. So return on bet1+bet2+bet3 = 21 + 0 + 0 = 21 Staked on the 3 bets = 10 + 4.5 + 6.5 = 21 So the yield is a whopping : 21/21 = 0.00 % Wouldn't worry about the strike rate to much. Most value for you here is that you have a very accurate record of what you've done. The human mind is the most unreliable record keeper, we tend to remember only the things we want to remember. By putting it all in this thread you get an objective record. You could do all sort of things with strike rate but not sure if that will be really valuable in this case TBH, let see when you've done a couple of matches :ok

[swooperman]

Re: Cricketing Capers Cheers DP :ok Stan James just released their odds after day 2: NZ 11/10 Draw 8/11 SL 16/1 Hmmmm......serious thinking to be done

[swooperman]

Re: Cricketing Capers Bet365 go very slightly better @ 23/20 New Zealand. Struggling here to back New Zealand TBH, with a 19pnt liability with them winning. Obviously just to cover the liability at that price I would have to stake 16.52pnts, which in the event of a draw (or a SL win) would leave me at a loss of 8.52pnts. Too early to jump yet, anyway, I reckon.......no way of guaranteeing a result after only 2 days, anything could happen. Its obviously a good pitch to bat on, but will it last? The 2 previous draws here had considerable time lost to the weather, which appears unlikely this time, so difficult to judge. Realistically, 2 days gone, 3 left. Sri Lanka 513 runs behind, needing 314 more runs to avoid the follow-on. If they fall to the follow-on, its curtains, as its only 362 they need, so they would be all out on the 3rd day if following-on, so would need to bat a further 2 days to save the match........tall order!! The more likely scenario IMO is they save the follow-on but dont quite make parity with NZ & are bowled out for around 425-450, conceding a lead of low 100-150, which would mean they last until around lunch on the 4th day. New Zealand would then bat again, raising their lead ( or attempting to) to around 375-400, just before the close on day 4, & have around 10 overs plus the last day @ Sri Lanka. This is what I think is more likely to happen..... On the plus side for Sri Lanka, the pitch seems difficult to bowl on at the moment, & as good a bowler as Vaas struggled to get much out of it, so unless it deteriorates visibly then there should be no terrors in batting on it. The other major plus is that NZs best bowler Vettori is not playing, & Sri Lanka will be thankful for that on day 5. Although the same could have been said about NZ & Muralitharan. So.......I expect SL to make a decent fist of this, batting through day 3 & into day 4, saving the follow on, & if they can get close to NZ score then the match has been saved. I dont think either side has a decent enough bowling attack to go through a test order in enough time, in hindsight, so I'm pretty confident of SL getting away with a draw here. Theres no value in me backing NZ at the current odds anyway, & I'm backing SL to do enough here, the one slight worry is that it is their first innings in the country, having not batted in the warm-up match. So....I'm sitting tight, with 8 points profit still in the draw, & 25.375 in an unlikely SL win, but a liability of 19pnts in a NZ victory. Sri Lanka have to last the day........

[Pie-chucker]

Re: Cricketing Capers Featherbed pitch, both fairly toothless attacks. Reckon you're good with the draw.

[swooperman]

Re: Cricketing Capers Yep, looking good......happened to get up in the night so was sad enough to check the score & SL were wobbling slightly @ 105-2, but replied brilliantly with a stand of 184 between Atapattu & Jayawardene, & closed day 3 on 351-3......better than I expected. So, 7 wickets standing, 210 runs behind, follow-on saved bar a staggering feat of incompetence. If Sri Lanka can bat for another 2 sessions they will be around level with NZ, so if they bat another one before being bowled out they will have a lead of around 100 & could possibly have the last few overs & the final day at NZ, trying to skittle them on a 5th day pitch which at the moment shows no signs of deterioration, & chasing only 100 to win the match. Fanciful, but SL will be looking at it that way...... The only way NZ can get a result now is to take the last 7 wickets in the first half of the 4th day & have a lead of 100 & extend that to say 350 & have the final 2 sessions of the match @ SL, cant see it but there you go...... So reckon draw is around a 70% shot myself, with SL having the more realistic chance of a win. All on the first session tomorrow, if SL navigate that NZ are out of the game. Quite happy in the position I'm in now, possibly might look at odds later when published if NZ are higher than expected, but I'll probably sit tight with SL covered nicely & the draw making 8pnts profit. :notworthy :notworthy Sri Lanka.........

[swooperman]

Re: Cricketing Capers All that panic 2 days ago was for nothing :lol so forget anything that I said, I was just scaring myself 'cos I like to live life on the edge :rollin Stan James new odds: NZ 10/1 draw 1/25 SL 16/1 Hmm..........how glad am I that I took the draw at the outset!! This is a good example of why I like to take the draw at the start of games, because the price only ever comes in unless somebodys really taking a kicking, so you would really struggle to cover yourself if you hadnt took it......... Strangely enough I see Sri Lanka as the only real possible winners now, barring them being bowled out for another 50 in the morning, so I do disagree that they should be 16/1 compared to NZs 10/1. Time for a think, as I can feel an act of stupidity approaching......

[swooperman]

Re: Cricketing Capers Well, I'm in the minority as Bet365 go 8/1 NZ & 20/1 Sri Lanka......

[swooperman]

Re: Cricketing Capers As I said before, can probably only see a draw now, but there is small potential for a result: 1) If NZ skittle SL in the morning & early afternoon for another 100, so having a lead of 110ish, so bat until lunch on the final day, then leading by 350 or so in an ungettable 2 sessions which they use to have a go at SL, which should be no problem as you cant see the pitch deteriorating that much. 2) If SL bat all day, on current scoring rates they would be around 100 ahead by the close, declare & have the final day at NZ, possibly even 10 overs the previous night, & try to bowl NZ out for 200ish, thereby having a quick chase for 100 to win. If SL are bowled out around tea-time for around the same score as NZ then neither side will attempt anything as not enough time & neither has an advantage, unless NZ really do collapse for around 150......nah, cant see that. I think the pitch is too good & both attacks too ordinary without Vettori & Muralitharan for either to happen, but I rate theory 2 as slightly more likely than 1. The only worrying thing is that SL have a slightly longer than normal tail as they dont have a traditional number 7 that can bat. So obviously the draw is big favourites tonight, & I have 8 pnts profit on that at present, but there is a nagging thought in my mind, that the odds have opened up for me on NZ to cover the bets & even go into profit on the eventuality of a NZ win, rather than sit on a possible liability of 19pnts. So.....I came into this with the stated intention of covering myself & trying to make it as risk-free as possible, & a 19 liability on a NZ win is obviously a fifth of my bank. So, some would not agree with this, & as Mr.Onemore said I am not maximising my profit, but for the afore-mentioned reasons I am going to be cowardly & cover myself for each result. So....... Bet 3: New Zealand @ 10/1. Stan James. 2.5pnts. Bet 2d: Sri Lanka @ 20/1. Bet365. 0.5 pnts (basically cos I dont think it should be this long...)

[swooperman]

Re: Cricketing Capers This now leaves me with a breakdown of: The draw: 12pnts staked (1bet). Liability 12pnts to win 15pnts (+5pnts) New Zealand: 2.5pnts staked (1 bet). Liability 2.5pnts to win 25pnts (+5.5pnts) Sri Lanka: 7.5pnts staked (5 bets). Liability 7.5pnts to win 47.375pnts (+32.87pnts) Boring I now, & granted sacrificing 3 pnts is 3 pnts lost........but losing 19pnts is also best off avoided ;)

[Kiwi_punter]

Re: Cricketing Capers Just caught up with this thread. I haven't watched any of the test and I didn't bet on it either but something that may be of interest to you is that the attitude in NZ at the moment is to get away from the green seaming wickets that we have produced in the past that have assisted our seam bowlers. Our groundsman have been advised to produce quality pitches that don't assist the bowlers too much. We've had a lot of controversy whenever we've beaten a team with the green seaming wickets as it's felt that our bowlers have not been developing and all they've had to do is put the ball on a line and length and the ball will be unplayable as it will move sideways. This Napier pitch could be an example of us trying to develop perfect pitches that make it hard for the bowlers. Because this game is heading towards a stalemate they may consider making the next pitch a little more greener or else there won't be a result in any of the tests as the bowling attacks from both teams are short on fire power. I'll keep my eye out and see what the next pitch is like. It'll either be as good as this one or will be watered to put a bit of grass on it.

[swooperman]

Re: Cricketing Capers Cheers Kiwi :ok good stuff mate. SL proceeded to 452-4 before being skittled by the NZ seamers, losing the final 6 wickets for 46 runs. This doesnt necessarily mean the pitch is breaking though, it was generally reverse swing with the old ball. So NZ batted again with a lead of 63, moving slowly up to 64-2 in 30 overs, thereby ending day 4 with a lead of 127. By batting so slowly NZ have no interest in trying to produce an unlikely result, in these circumstances they may declare mid-afternoon & set SL an ungettable total & bowl at them just for the sake of denting the batsmans confidence if they get him out, but this is unlikely here. As the second & final test is starting monday (late sunday UK) NZ are likely to try to bat through the day to keep the SL bowlers & fielders from resting & try to tire them out for the 2nd test, & also deny them batting practice, as they have only batted once since arriving here. So, barring something very strange happening.........draw for certain. Odds for interest sakes: NZ 12/1, SL 33/1, Draw 1/100 On the theme of what Kiwi said, the Wellington weather forecast (2nd test) is rain for friday & saturday but ok during the test. Could certainly be more bowler friendly, but no news yet on whether Vettori will return.

[swooperman]

Re: Cricketing Capers WI v SA. 2nd Test. On to the third test in the system, starting friday around 3pm UK time. Difficult to judge this IMO, part of me thinks that WI could regret not taking their chance against SA in the first test, the other thinks that the SA bowling is too weak without Pollock to make serious inroads twice. The WI batting is definetly stronger with Lara, Gayle & Sarwan back in, but its in their nature to collapse with a stronger line-up......Also how will Lara react to losing the captaincy? He can be temperemental at the best of times.....To replace Pollock, SA have to bat Boucher at 6, which is one too high for me, not because of him, but I think Hall, Boje & 3 rabbits is a bit wafer!! The SA top order is more consistent & they are less likely to collapse than the WI, but they seem to have less behind them. Weather forecast is showers throughout again, so unless theres some average batting the thought persists that neither attack is penetrative enough in the time available. For WI to bowl SA out twice, I feel they need to put up a huge total first & put Kallis & co. under pressure, as I cant see the bowling alone being enough. 350 seemes to be a decent score here recently so anything over 400 is quality, only the Aussies have scored more here lately. Odds: draw - bet365 Evs, SJ 10/11. WI - bet365 7/2, SJ 10/3, SA - bet365 6/4, SJ 15/8 Again, with the forecast I think to cover the draw now is the only option as it will shorten as we go through. The WI @ 7/2 I think is pretty good value, & I'm nibbling at that for a platform also. I was also tempted to create a platform on SA @ 15/8 but shied away in the end as dont want to use up too much potential profit too early & want to leave some in the draw if possible. So: Bet 1: Draw @ Evs. Bet365. 15pnts. Liability 15pnts to win 15pnts. Bet 2: WI @ 7/2. Bet365. 6pnts. Liability 6pnts to win 15pnts. Hedging really......not too sure about this TBH, but after thought thats the way Ive decided to go. If Pollock was playing I would definetly have fancied SA to bounce back TBH. Still, Ive gone for an even cover to start with, hopefully getting into the position of a couple more pnts on WI for profit & the rest to weigh into SA or leave on the draw. Heres hoping SA dont go through WI tomorrow :hope :lol

[swooperman]

Re: Cricketing Capers Err......obviously bet 2 above was to win 21pnts, not 15, sorry.... NZ-SL ended in a draw, but SL finished on a high, bowling NZ out for 238, a lead of 301, with a very unlikely 1 session to get it in! But bad light put paid to any play after tea, SL were 7-0. Malinga took the honours again. No Vettori for the second test. So, the draw netted me 5 pnts profit. NZ-SL 1st Test breakdown: Draw - 1 bet. 12 pnts. won. returned 15 pnts. NZ - 1 bet. 2.5pnts. lost. lost 2.5pnts. SL - 5 bets. 7.5pnts. lost lost 7.5 pnts. Start bank 100pnts Current bank 105pnts Total staked 22pnts No. of bets 7 (3 if cum.) Winning bets 1 Losing bets 6 (2 if cum.) Strike rate 14.28% (33.3% if cum.) Yield +1.22 Profit/Loss +5.00pnts Overall table: Start bank 100pnts Current bank 105 pnts Total staked 43pnts No.of bets 13 (6 if cum.) Winning bets 2 Losing bets 11 (4if cum.) Strike rate 15.38% (33.3% if cum.) Yield +1.11 Profit/Loss +5.00pnts Hardly setting the world on fire is it? But worth bearing in mind that I am backing the draw to lay it in an age that there are less test draws than ever, & both tests so far have been drawn!! But if I had taken the conventional approach these days of laying the draw I would have lost all my stakes.

[swooperman]

Re: Cricketing Capers Bet 3: SA @ 4/1. Stan James. 4 pnts. liability 4pnts to win 16pnts.

[swooperman]

Re: Cricketing Capers WI won the toss & have batted, currently 185-3 off 55ovs, after being 13-2. The 2 main bats, Lara & Chanderpaul are at the crease, Lara has a century off 139 balls in his comeback on his home ground.......top man.:notworthy Might have jumped early @ SA 4/1, but watched it go up from 5/2, swearing if it got to 4s I would take it...........its the Windies, theyre so unpredictable they scare the s**t out of you :lol I'm hoping it goes up further but took it now to give me a platform. Only got 5pnts leeway left but happy as I think its a result pitch despite the bad forecast, & I'm away this weekend & I'm happy I've got some margin in case I struggle to find an internet cafe in Madrid!

[swooperman]

Re: Cricketing Capers Did well there, Chanderpaul was out shortly afterwards for 35, WI 204-4 & SA back in to 13/5

[swooperman]

Re: Cricketing Capers Bet 2a: WI at 9/2. 2pnts. Liability 8pnts to win 30pnts

[swooperman]

Re: Cricketing Capers West Indies reached 347ao, of which Lara was last out for 196 off 286 balls.....some return! SA currently 66-0 off 13ish. Took WI now at 9/2 to bump up the bet. Only 3 pnts left until negative on the draw.......may top up, may just go over it.......forecast still the same I think but will check. SA gone off quick but this pitch is up & down & may get worse. Need a few wickets to give SA decent odds but I dont think they´ll get far past WI total if at all on this wicket.

[swooperman]

Re: Cricketing Capers Luck again there, took the 9/2 & De Villiers was out, 70-1. WI in to 10/3, SA 11/8. NZ v SL 2nd Test opened NZ 2/1, draw 11/10, SL 9/4. Weather good for test, although rain today.

[swooperman]

Re: Cricketing Capers NZ v SL: Bet 1: Draw at 11/10. SJ. 10pnts. Liability 10pnts to win 11pnts Bet 2: SL at 13/5. Bet365. 4pnts. Liability 4pnts to win 10.4pnts

[swooperman]

Re: Cricketing Capers Just to cover myself here, Ive done 5 posts from a cafe in Madrid but its not updating on the thread page & I´m a tad worried as its got my system bets in, although Ive got them on paper, oh well.....

[swooperman]

Re: Cricketing Capers SA closed on 182-3, Kallis gone at the death, but Graeme Smith unbeaten on 90

[swooperman]

Re: Cricketing Capers WI v SA. SA closed on 370-6 off 157 overs, in a handy position with a slight lead of 23 with Prince & Boucher at the crease. They will be looking to extend that lead to 150 if they can, with WI batting again somewhere around 1 hour before tea, & realistically having to bat for the rest of the match, or certainly get 200 ahead & not be bowled out before tea on the last day. Probably rests on Lara again, & this is an unpredictable pitch, so it will be difficult for WI to survive, even with only 2 days left. Odds: WI 9/1, draw 8/11, SA 11/8 NZ v SL. Sri Lanka batted & were shot out for 211 after being in real trouble at around 80 odd -7. Chris Martin taking 5 wickets. NZ replied with 52-0 off 11 overs, but the ball was seriously moving around on day 1 & there is plenth in the pitch for the bowlers. Bet365 odds: NZ 1/4, SL 13/2, draw 9/2

[swooperman]

Re: Cricketing Capers WI v SA. Current breakdown: Draw: 1 bet. Liability 15pnts to win 15pnts (+3pnts) WI win: 2 bets. Liability 8pnts to win 30pnts (+11pnts) SA win: 1 bet. Liability 4pnts to win 16pnts (-7pnts) So I´m in trouble at the moment on a South Africa win, being 7pnts adrift of covering the liability. I thought about increasing my draw bet by 7pnts, giving me 8 more pnts in total to put on SA but it still wouldnt cover it, so I think I´ll sit tight & run the risk at the moment of losing on a SA win, & hopefully I might be able to cover it at some point later. :hope

[swooperman]

Re: Cricketing Capers NZ v SL. Stan James odds: NZ 1/5, draw 9/2, SL 9/1. Bet 1a: Draw at 9/2. 2pnts. Liability 12pnts to win 20pnts. Bet 2a: SL win at 9/1. 2.5pnts. Liability 6.5pnts to win 32.9pnts. Heres hoping for a NZ collapse tomorrow, as Ive got nothing on them & no way of covering them with odds of 1/5!!

[swooperman]

Re: Cricketing Capers WI v SA. the 2 important wickets of Boucher & Prince have fallen for the addition of only 15 runs or so........... Bet 1a: Draw at Evs. 7pnts. Liability 22 pnts to win 22pnts.(+2pnts) Bet 2b: WI win at 4/1. 2pnts. Liability 10pnts to win 38pnts (+6pnts) Bet 3a: SA win at 6/4. 6pnts. Liability 10pnts to win 25pnts (-7pnts) Still got a 7pnt liability on the South Africa win, could have nearly covered it by raising draw cover but elected to place 2 more points on a WI win to leave me in credit on them unless I have to go over the cover on a SA win, which is a possibilty. I have only 2points left to play if I want to stay within the draw cover, so obviously I would need odds of 7/2 or more or sit tight on the draw, but we´ll see........ Got a feeling that the SA lead will be around 50-60, which WI need to erase for no loss really, but as its happened so quickly, if WI are bowled before lunch on day 5 they are in big trouble, as they would only be setting SA 200 or so in 2 sessions, although SA can be mega-negative in these situations....