swooperman Posted March 31, 2005 Author Share Posted March 31, 2005 Re: Cricketing Capers West Indies go in to lunch on day 1 on 96-2 :) which isnt a bad recovery under the circumstances. Wavell Hinds on 54* & Pagon the debutant on 29*. Knew nothing about Pagon TBH but looks a classy player, but only averages 31 in first class so hard to tell. To prove I knew nothing about him, Chanderpaul bats behind him, not in front.:( Odds now are WI back into 6/1, draw still constant @ 10/11, & SA drift slightly to 5/4, so at the moment at least the SA odds are heading in the right direction. Deciding to show a little faith in the Windies to get those SA odds up higher, as dont really want to bite the bullet this low down, & only have a 12.5 pnt liability at the moment, so will sit tight. Obviously if SA start to go through the Windies after lunch you could say Ive missed my chance but if I stick to my original plan by using the 8.5pnts I have left & take SA now then I will still be in deficit, if that makes sense. Sorely tempted to take a plunge on Stan James spread of 350-380, evens either side, 7/1 the spread, but will sit tight. Reckon the Windies need 300 to stay afloat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swooperman Posted March 31, 2005 Author Share Posted March 31, 2005 Re: Cricketing Capers Pagon gone for 35, & the odds to 11/10 again. WI out to 8/1. 120-3 off 34. Chanderpaul definetly in this time, they need a partnership off these 2 now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ian3012 Posted March 31, 2005 Share Posted March 31, 2005 Re: Cricketing Capers lol.........rain stops play...........west indies 120-3....... not even 3 hrs play.!:eyes swoop's looking good on the draw!!:tongue2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swooperman Posted March 31, 2005 Author Share Posted March 31, 2005 Re: Cricketing Capers Bet 3: South Africa @ 11/4. 5pnt bet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swooperman Posted March 31, 2005 Author Share Posted March 31, 2005 Re: Cricketing Capers Windies responding valiantly to be fair to them. I said this partnership was big & theyve done well, Wavell Hinds on 124* & Chanderpaul just got his 50. Wicket a bit slow & low but if theres not too much play lost I do share Pie Chuckers opinion that there will be a result, cant lose much more than a day though TBH. I thought that the best chance of a WI win was a low-scoring, reduced match, dog fight, & they havent got a big total yet, but theyre not in bad shape. Hard to judge due to unknown factors though. I feel these 2 being split & I wouldnt be surprised at all out for 320-350. Ive took the SA bet above as the price drifted out & may keep going if they keep batting well, but I'm mindful of a collapse as said above & us not seeing this price on SA again in the match. So Ive now covered myself on all eventualities in the match, the breakdown being: Draw - liability 10pnts to win 11pnts. WI win - liability 2.5 pnts to win 22.5 pnts SA win - liability 5 pnts to win 13.75pnts. So obviously at this juncture WI would net me 7.5 pnts, SA only 1.25pnts & the draw still 3.5pnts. But as explained earlier I'm quite happy to play with the draw profit to build up the win returns, as it were. So I can relax, after 1 day & choose when to play, which if the Windies keep going like this wont be very long. But with the forecast as it is, the later I play (or not) the more chance of keeping the draw profit if I like. Although I could of course choose to increase the stakes, but I'm unlikely to cover myself in the event of a draw that way. Clear as mud......... By the way, Mr.O, Ive opened an India-Pakistan ODI thread on Other Sports if youre interested Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swooperman Posted March 31, 2005 Author Share Posted March 31, 2005 Re: Cricketing Capers Ps. Bet 3 was at Stan James, but I dont want to edit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swooperman Posted March 31, 2005 Author Share Posted March 31, 2005 Re: Cricketing Capers Umpire Shepherd has offered the light, Chanderpaul says 'no thanks we like batting'.......I'm not surprised, its 332-3 ffs!! Hinds 185* & Chanderpaul 92* Bit of a surprise this :loon seems a long time ago they were 24-2 & 12/1!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swooperman Posted March 31, 2005 Author Share Posted March 31, 2005 Re: Cricketing Capers 5/1 on SA now, might have gone a bit early on that TBH, if I'd waited I could have made all the profit I'm aiming for in the 5 pnts I put on them.......aah well.....didnt want to screw up I suppose, too badly. WI still 9/4, draw around 4/7, dont think we'll see it around evs again anytime soon. Still difficult to judge though, I mean it doesnt look good for SA at the moment, but WI are the kind of side that if a couple of quick wickets go in the morning, SA could be batting in an hour!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pie-chucker Posted April 1, 2005 Share Posted April 1, 2005 Re: Cricketing Capers Good you snapped up the WI 9-1 :lol before the toin coss. Loony price against a Pollock-less SA. Seems to me the system is very much helped by getting the 'before the off' call right and things panning out on that initial bet in the first day, or the first two sessions, as you have more room to maneouvre. As has happened here by getting a good bit of WI. 4.2 an over is cracking going on a 'slow' wicket. Cantor go WI runs 535-550 which I won't be getting involved in but probably a bit high with new ball just one over old. Depends on SA holding catches, pretty much. Weather Underground: clear-scattered clouds-partly cloudy-partly cloudy. I can't get involved in the draw at those 4/7 odds so will sit back and watch 'the system' in action. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swooperman Posted April 1, 2005 Author Share Posted April 1, 2005 Re: Cricketing Capers I'm a bit pissed off TBH because I feel I jumped too early on SA, its just that WI are so unpredictable you never know whats gonna happen, but if I'd waited & took 5/0 I could have used 4 pnts, guaranteed enough profit & had another point to play with. 3 & 1/2 pnts to play with to possibly take 1 more on SA & 2 & 1/2 on WI, taking out all profit on the draw, or alternatively sit tight. Wish I'd stuck 20 on the draw to start with now, but Ive explained the reasons why up above. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swooperman Posted April 1, 2005 Author Share Posted April 1, 2005 Re: Cricketing Capers Bet 3a: SA @ 8/1. 1.5 pnt bet @ Stan James Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swooperman Posted April 1, 2005 Author Share Posted April 1, 2005 Re: Cricketing Capers Bet 2a: West Indies 1pnt @ 4/1. Stan James. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swooperman Posted April 1, 2005 Author Share Posted April 1, 2005 Re: Cricketing Capers By taking the 2 bets above, Ive gambled a touch, as Ive left myself with only 1pnt leeway on the draw, but I'm happy with that at the moment. Play started around an hour late this morning, but some can be made back up tonight if the weather stays good, but still forecasting the odd thunderstorm. still dont think the WI are in as strong a position as it feels they are, if you see what I mean, they could still go for under 500, then its up to the SA strength of character & resilience. Had decided to myself that if SA went out as far as 8s I would take them as dont think theyre out of it yet, & the platform the WI have, to be on 4/1 I thought was good value. All dependent on the weather to an extent, bookies think so anyway, the draw was 1/4. Think I was right to take the draw to start with & then lay it, as the price for the draw never seems to improve, & certainly doesnt sway around as much as the wins. breakdown - Draw - liability 10 pnts to win 11 pnts (+1pnt) WI win - liability 3.5pnts to win 26.5pnts (+10pnts) SA win - liability 6.5pnts to win 25.75pnts (+12.75pnts) Tempted to throw more leeway, but difficult with the draw so low to continue to keep a 'no lose' margin, which is after all the whole point of what I'm trying to do!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mr onemore Posted April 1, 2005 Share Posted April 1, 2005 Re: Cricketing Capers This match seems to be going well for you - you're initail bet has guaranteed a success here. Great position to be in - any result and a big profit, draw small profit too. I'd suspect you'll be able to close this one out with a couple more guaranteed points of profit here across the board. Good work:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swooperman Posted April 1, 2005 Author Share Posted April 1, 2005 Re: Cricketing Capers Yeah, not unhappy to be honest.....think I maybe went a bit early on SA @ 11/4 when if I'd waited I could have had better profit with more still in hand, but thats hindsight..... TBH when 1 team opens at such a big price (& went out to 12s!) & you know theyre not that bad, it opens up for you, but definetly taking the draw was the way to go, but if it rains then I'll probably get nothing as the 1 pnt left will probably go on somewhere as well. The example of what I did for India-Pakistan was much bigger because I never touched the draw & sat tight, keeping backing the wins, but doing it that way obviously I would have lost my entire stake if the draw had occurred, whereas this way I cannot lose money, which I guess I'm happier with. I think the idea of laying the draw is the way to go in this day & age, but I'm effectively backing it & then laying it, so covering all my options. It could be called cowardly I suppose, but its what I was trying to prove, so there you go.....it doesnt mean I'll play every match this way, all depends on weather, teams, odds, etc....for example NZ v SL starting sunday night, seems a good forecast, late autumn over there, ball moving around.....I really fancy a result, & might not back the draw @ all, but if the draw opens near 2/1, say, the temptation is there. I'm toying with the idea of double backing the draw & aiming to leave some profit in it (generally speaking now) but not sure if feasible TBH, & obviously taking away profit from the wins that way. I think, depending on what you stake a point of course, decent money can be made at little risk (weve all heard that before) but you have to pick the matches, theres no point doing it involving Bangladesh or Zimbabwe for instance (unless theyre playing each other!!) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swooperman Posted April 1, 2005 Author Share Posted April 1, 2005 Re: Cricketing Capers Bet 2b: West Indies @ 7/2. 1 pnt bet. Stan James. Thinking here is that after thought, presuming West Indies dont bat until they drop, which cant see the point of, they are 468-4 off 127ovs now, so looking for 550-600 & have a go tonight probably, at SA. Cant see the point of batting into tomorrow in a rain-affected match, so 45 overs left today, weather permitting, maybe use another 30 & declare, taking for granted if Chanderpauls still in that he has his 200. So dont think that the price will change much in this innings now, as WI still have the wickets to score the runs wanted, but if SA lose a couple of early wickets, WI will come right in. So took the 7/2 now, as cant see the price being any better throughout barring rain. breakdown :- draw - 10 pnt liability to win 11 pnts (1 bet)(no profit) WI win - 4.5 pnt liability to win 30 pnts (+13.5pnts)(3 bets) SA win - 6.5 pnt liability to win 25.75 pnts (+11.25pnts)(2 bets) The breakdown in post 43 was out by 0.5 pnt on a SA win, sorry. So unless I decide to do something foolish, I can just watch this one now & hope for a result. I will do a table thingy at the end of this test (might need help, though...) but will not include NZ v SL bets, which will have already started, & will do a new table at thend of that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swooperman Posted April 2, 2005 Author Share Posted April 2, 2005 Re: Cricketing Capers Poor declaration by the Windies, Chanderpaul got his 200 & declared, but SA only faced a few balls & were offered the light. Thought they would bat faster than that in the final session TBH. Anyway, main hope is that SA are bowled out for under 344 & forced to follow-on, but not sure WI bowling good enough for that, so think it would take a bit of self-destruction. SA are a bit bully-boy, but they have 3 class bats, so we'll see how we go. Stan James think draw: WI 4/1, draw 1/6, SA 20/1. tempted on that 4/1, but if SA bat well draw it probably looks, so I'm in a no lose situ & would be foolish to change that with the weather forecast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruise Pristene Posted April 2, 2005 Share Posted April 2, 2005 Re: Cricketing Capers By taking the 2 bets above' date=' Ive gambled a touch[/quote'] no shit ! :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol just spilt my tea reading that, class is that quote of the day thing still going Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swooperman Posted April 2, 2005 Author Share Posted April 2, 2005 Re: Cricketing Capers I was just moping around on here, resigned to this ending a draw as it hammered down in Guyana, outfield flooded as it does, popped on to Stan the man & he was offering 12/1 WI, 33/1 SA, & just thinking that a monumental collapse by SA was the only hope. Half hour later, popped on to Cricinfo, & the bully boy Safris obviously thought it was a piece of piss............'cos they collapsed to 30-4 :loon Nearly dropped me dinner I did........ Nice of 'em to bring life back into a rapidly dying game of cricket :lol 40odd-4 now, De Villiers standing on a burning deck with Boucher for company, looking at each other as though the worlds gone mad........ All on the follow-on now, need 344 to avoid it, otherwise their might be time for a result here :ok SA still have the bats to get away with it, but no margin for error......might have to look to see if the f/o target reduced if a cumulative days play lost mid-match, but dont think so.....shame :lol WI now 2/1, draw 1/3, SA 50/1. WI were 12/1 just before the restart :eek :lol :lol @ Bruise. No point using straight language round here when I can flower it up to 3000 words & drop-in loads of cliches , mate :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swooperman Posted April 2, 2005 Author Share Posted April 2, 2005 Re: Cricketing Capers PS, MrO.....your not a South African are you, if so I'll start saying theyre unlucky & not taking things for granted & certainly not bully-boys with the bat.... :o Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swooperman Posted April 2, 2005 Author Share Posted April 2, 2005 Re: Cricketing Capers 96-6 off 28ish, Boucher & Boje together, both can bat TBH, very tempted to take Stans under 190 @ Evs. SA just not getting to grips with pitch, slow & low. Few wickets playing ill-advised shots considering the lack of bounce, at least 2 to pulls. Kallis....wtf?? His 2nd ball FFS!! The pitch will be blamed for this, but a lack of nous from SA is the main cause. I mean, any pitch that WI get 543-5 on in the middle of a 'strike' cant be too bad, can it?..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted April 2, 2005 Share Posted April 2, 2005 Re: Cricketing Capers Got to go for under 190 easy money? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swooperman Posted April 2, 2005 Author Share Posted April 2, 2005 Re: Cricketing Capers Dunno, Boje can bat........better than he can bowl anyway!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swooperman Posted April 2, 2005 Author Share Posted April 2, 2005 Re: Cricketing Capers Stans quote now under 220 @ evs, would take it if it wasnt overnight, if there was an hour left I'd definetly have it I think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swooperman Posted April 3, 2005 Author Share Posted April 3, 2005 Re: Cricketing Capers Right, 2nd Test in the system.......New Zealand v Sri Lanka I'll keep the bets seperate from the WI/SA match, but I'll still lable them 1, 1a, 2, 2a.....etc with the match itself. When tests overlap I'll try to keep it clear & do a breakdown table thingie after each match. In this case tuesday for the WI/SA match. Stan James finally opened on the site after I rang them up & asked why the odds werent up..........."we'll put them up now, Mr.Evans, especially for you.....& good luck...." :( do they know something I dont?? Anyway: NZ 13/8, draw 5/4, SL 11/4. Weather forecast is good, if not especially sunny, but virtually no rain forecast until after the 5 days. I feel the 2 sides are pretty evenly matched, with SA having more experience & therefore presumably more reliability in their top order, but the Marshalls do look promising for NZ. Franklin looks as though he may have something for NZ, but SL have Vaas, who bowled very well in their only test victory on NZ soil in 94/5, & has 28 wkts against NZ @ 20.21. Fleming has 2x100 v SL & an average of 72.26 but needs a return to form after the Aussies. Very even I think, depends on the NZ state of mind after the Australia series, but there seemed to be a touch of defiance in the last 2 days of the third test when in a hopeless cause, although missing Vettori is a big blow, but SL continue to miss Muralitharan. I'm a little surprised the draw is that short, but the bookies never give much in it as punters jump on it at any opportunity. Therefore I think my strategy is going to be to cover the draw again at the outset, but if the match goes the way I think it will & neither side really occupy the crease for long enough, I may well go over the cover in my bets, therefore if the draw did occur I would probably make a loss, but we'll see how we go. again I dont think the draw price will improve whilst still viable, & not much rain forecast so this should be more straight-forward than the WI/SA match. I think the SL price is fair at the outset, so I will take a small platform builder on that also. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swooperman Posted April 3, 2005 Author Share Posted April 3, 2005 Re: Cricketing Capers NZ v SL Bet 1: draw @ 5/4 Stan James. 12 pnts to win 15 pnts. Bet 2: SL @ 11/4 Stan James. 3.5pnts to win 9.63pnts. Thing to remember is this is played throughout the UK night, so it is mainly close of play odds I'm looking at, but we'll see as we go......if I'm getting hammered I wont be sleeping wednesday night..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swooperman Posted April 3, 2005 Author Share Posted April 3, 2005 Re: Cricketing Capers Ps, I reckon I'm just sitting on WI/SA now, just hoping WI & the weather contrive to get a result between them, might need a bit of SA cock-up-ability too, though :lol Think its foolish to throw more at it what with the weather & the fact Ive done my margins, as it were. So, 13.5pnts profit if the WI bring it home, evens-stevens if its a draw. Can't moan.............c'mon Shiv, stick it to 'em :rollin If its a draw, it feels like youve won anyway, cos the draw cover money goes back into your account. Simple things please simple minds....... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swooperman Posted April 3, 2005 Author Share Posted April 3, 2005 Re: Cricketing Capers NZ v SL. Bet 2a: Sri Lanka @ 11/4. 1pnt top-up bet. ........guess who didnt do his original sums right ;) Still thinking if not bad weather interruption then result likely, bit of a slow-scoring wicket here, 400 only topped once in 3 tests, not particularly high scoring. WI v SA. SA 49-1 off 38-ish, real slow batting to save the game. Weather could save SA yet anyway, reckon WI want another 2 wickets tonight to feel happy about tomorrow. Still get 15/8 on WI, 4/11 the draw. sitting tight..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swooperman Posted April 4, 2005 Author Share Posted April 4, 2005 Re: Cricketing Capers NZ v SL. New Zealand won the toss & batted, scoring 267-3 off 84ovs by stumps. Hamish Marshall still in on 133*, with Nathan Astle on 37*. James Marshall was out for 52. NZ in a decent position, looking to push on as close to 500 as possible, but 400 only scored here once, although granted only 3 previous tests. No odds at the moment, which is worrying..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swooperman Posted April 4, 2005 Author Share Posted April 4, 2005 Re: Cricketing Capers NZ v SL. Bet 2b: Sri Lanka @ 10/1. 1.5pnts. S James. SL Liability 6pnts to win 27.375pnts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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