Cricketing Capers

[swooperman]

What I'm aiming to do here is have a system that incorporates all my bets on cricket, generally test matches, but would include other bets on one-dayers & also possibly county matches. Obviously, being in England we are just shy of the season proper, but there is plenty of international cricket in April to keep me interested. Ive never done one of these before, so anybody interested please bear with me, but I hope to prove that the in-running test match market can be very useful & hopefully lucrative, using just intuition, statistics & a feel for the game. What I would do at the start of the test match is to back 1 or possibly 2 of the 3 possible results, set up a profit margin & work within it, steadily trying to reduce the risk as the game progresses & the market fluctuates. In Other Sports there are some very good, if sparsely used, cricket threads, although obviously they are busier when England are playing, & I aim to keep my waffle in there, whilst giving (hopefully succint) breakdowns of the reasons & strategies for the bets in here. The best way of understanding this is to read one of the threads, India v Pakistan being the most suitable, but to try & prove this I will do a breakdown here of what I did in the 3rd IND-PAK test which finished today: Starting Prices: India 11/10. draw 5/4. Pakistan 9/2 India - 13 pnts staked - 10pnts @ 11/10, 2pnts @ 10/1, 1 pnt @ 14/1 - Total Liability - 13 pnts. Pakistan - 18.5 pnts staked - 5pnts @ 9/2, 5pnts @ 13/5, 5pnts @ 13/8, 2pnts @ 13/5, 1.5pnts @ 6/1. - Total Liability 18.5 pnts. Connected bets - 7 pnts staked - 2pnts @ 2/1, 5pnts @ Evs. Total Liability - 7 pnts. Returns - Pakistan won - 18.5 pnts staked - returned 76.3pnts. both connected bets won - 7pnts staked - returned 16 pnts. so final totals were: 38.5pnts staked - 92.3pnts returned - profit of 53.8pnts In the first test I made a profit of 10pnts, & the second a loss of 5.5 pnts, but I stress I did not play those tests as intensly as the 3rd. I will start with a bank of 100 pnts, & obviously this is a FREE STYLE SYSTEM. The timetable I will work to is: 31/3 WI v SA Test 2/4 IND v PAKI odi 4/4 NZ v SL Test 5/4 IND v PAK odi 8/4 WI v SA Test 9/4 IND v PAK odi 11/4 NZ v SL Testt 12/4 IND v PAK odi 15/4 IND v PAK odi.....& so on, so you can see there is plenty to be going on with. I will not guarantee playing every game, but its a safe assumption I will probably play each test match at some point. What has to be borne in mind is that as well as playing at the start of the match, I will play in-running at not much notice, although I generally look at close of play each day, but there may be a price I can not ignore during the day. Also bear in mind that if I place a bet at large odds, ie India @ 14/1 it does not necessarily mean I think they will win, it means that in certain circumstances they could mount a comeback & if Ive took that price then I'm covered for that eventuality, & I have a larger profit margin to play with. I could of course just keep lumping on my first choice, but then i have no cover, & I am trying to prove that you can play like this & cut down the risk, rather than putting all my eggs in one basket. Remember test cricket is played over 5 days. I am using real money on this system. As mentioned, I am using a 100pnt bank, & i will rate my bets between 1-20, if anything is bigger I will point it out at the time. Please bear with me on this, it will explain itself as time goes on. Along with all the normal System stats, I will keep stats on individual matches & series as we go on, also I might do a seperate stat as I could have 5 bets on 1 outcome whilst working within the margin of 1 other bet, & the one bet wins, leaving me in profit, but with a 5:1 losing ratio, which is going to make me look like a muppet whilst I am winning, if you see what I mean :hope Anyway, I'll leave it at that at the moment, the first test starts thursday (31/3) but may be slightly ropey as a lot of rain around, but we'll see. If anybody has any queries, please comment, & if any of the mods need anything that Ive missed, please ask.

[mr onemore]

Re: Cricketing Capers Nice one:ok Good luck with this - as haven't seen a cricket one here yet. I like the idea of in-running bets that are in slow motion as it were. Time to work things out. So I'm looking forward to your test-match bets. It's the weather aspect that puts me off cricket bets - do you have to think about that much at the start of a test-match?

[PAULM03]

Re: Cricketing Capers Good luck swooper:ok Haven't got into any of the cricket threads since the SA v England test match one, but as i remember there was a lot of good stuff posted on that thread. Like Mr. O, i like the idea of in-running betting on cricket as a test-match develops more slowly than any other sport and think there's plenty of opportunity. To answer Mr.O's question, weather in test matches is incredibly important, and as i remember the 5 day forecast was an integral part of the reasoning behind a lot of bets in the SA/England thread.

[Datapunter]

Re: Cricketing Capers Good luck swoop, sounds like you'll be doing a bit of pioneering in systems terms. Must admit i am one of those people who never understood a thing about the game. So i'll have plenty to learn from this :ok

[swooperman]

Re: Cricketing Capers Cheers boys, you watch me f**k it up now :ok Mr O, weather is massive but in this day & age with the scoring rates so high you can a lot of times get away with losing a days play, but obviously not always. The weather for this starting match is dreadful at the moment, so its safe to assume that if the draw opens around evens I'll be on it, but there have been instances in Guyana before when tests have been abandoned without a ball bowled. The WI-SA series is a little confusing at the moment as a contractual dispute means WI are missing 6 players, including Lara, but that may change before we start, but if it doesnt its difficult to judge. The example I gave is slightly strange as normally I would cover the draw, so perhaps the profits wouldnt be as high as in that one normally, but we'll see as we go on.

[merlin]

Re: Cricketing Capers Another very interesting and entertaining thread there fella.As an ex cricketer and now a supporter of ...... wait for it!......Durham County cricket at Riverside, I will be following this on a daily basis.Wish you luck with this, I am sure judging by early results you will be on to a winner here.Cheers.;)

[mr onemore]

Re: Cricketing Capers Hi all, Swoops - I take it then that looking at the weather forecasts for around the world is one of the necessaries here - fascinating stuff! Have you an opinion, just in general, on whether you think people over or understimate weather factors when betting on a test match. I'm guessing with what you say about scoring rates, that the weather factor is overestimated as a factor? Just thought I'd post a link to a fantastic cricket stats/database site. Hope you don't mind Swooperman... I've just spent ages flicking through - might get into cricket betting myself now... http://stats.cricket4.com/team_analysis.asp?TeamID=ENG&Opponent=0&Tour=0&MonthStart=Jan&YearStart=2000&MonthFinish=Mar&YearFinish=2005&ql=0&MatchType=ODI&Venue=0&ShowMatches=1&BatOrder=&BowlOrder=&FromForm=1&x=113&y=10 Fancy the idea myself of looking at the ODI results - coming up with some analysis...

[swooperman]

Re: Cricketing Capers Mr.O - No probs, mate. What I would say is that test cricket has moved on massively in the last 10 years, to an extent that looking at stats from years ago can now be sometimes misleading when looking at matches. Since Australia have been the main power in this cycle, certainly the last 10 years, possibly before, well.....since the West Indies decline at least, the game has speeded up, & although most teams cant match the Australians intensity, they are following suit in run-rates. Years ago you would find 250 in a day an exception rather than the rule, whereas now it is relatively commonplace to see 300-325 & even 350-375 on exceptional days. I would say that the Aussies started this from their 'nadir' under Allan Border in 1985, when they restructured their cricket & started to build again from scratch. Border stood alone with youngsters like Dean Jones & Steve Waugh for around 2-3 years before they started to improve for the exposure, then they toured England in 1989, won the Ashes back, & kept them ever since. When Border moved on, Mark Taylor took them even further forward with real attacking captaincy, then Steve Waugh followed him, & now Ricky Ponting. The Aussies may have a 'holier-than-thou' attitude, but they have shaped modern test cricket as we know it. The faster scoring has taken a lot of the draws out of cricket, because the way they play they can still fashion a result having lost a day to rain, or even more, which used to be unthinkable. So the weather does play a large part, but can be over-estimated IMO. The 3rd test between NZ -AUS just finished had a dreadful long range forecast, but the Aussies fashioned a win in 3 & 1/2 days. The same will apply for this 1st test between West Indies & SA, the forecast in Guyana is shocking, with occasional thunderstorms forecast throughout. As I mentioned above, Guyana has had a few abandonements in its time, being mainland & with a more 'rainforesty' type climate than the islands, but it is not just the match-day weather that I look at TBH. I tend to look at the week in advance of the match to see the weather that the groundsman has had to prepare his pitch, in this case, it has had the same thunderstorm forecast since sunday in Guyana, so, obviously the g/man is in the final process of preparing his wicket, & it has had virtually all its rolling done by then. But under covers the pitch will sweat, & with that type of forecast the covers will not be off much before the start, so the wicket will start damp, & there is virtually nothing the g/man can do about this. So then we are in the situation of trying to predict a match that might not have enough play possible to get a result, being played on a result wicket, which may well mean that 3 days play is enough. On top of this, the contractual dispute mean the WIs are without either 6 or 7 1st choice players, including 3 of their top 6, which includes their 1 world-class batsman. Now the WI struggled to bat long enough to survive in a match these days before this dispute, so how will they fare?? Difficult to predict really, you would have to say SA should win, but they are missing their best bowler, & the problem in WI cricket could bind the team, without some of the 'showponys' left out, & they could really fight this out. Bet365 odds are WI 13/2, SA 10/11, draw 6/5. Now if you were trying to predict the series, its even more difficult, because if WI are steamrollered in Guyana, then the national outcry to have the 'rebels' brought back in for the rest of the series is going to be massive, & they will probably be 'invited' back. Its worth remembering that, coincidentally, Laras contractual problem was 'different' to the others, so he was asked to play but he declined unless the others were brought back also, or does he smell a rout & wants no part of it? To mention about the fact whether weather is 'over-rated', as it were, the bookies are never overly generous about their draw odds, as the punters back it at the first sign of rain, & also, IMO, people underestimate pressure whilst batting second on wearing pitches, even though there are less draws these days, or seem to be in any case. I tend to look first about backing the draw at the outset, as that is quite often the best price you'll see, building up a profit margin as it were, of say 20 pnts, & then affectively lay the draw throughout the match. If I use up the profit margin & it ends a draw, I have lost nothing, if I get the prices I want on either side & leave some profit in the draw & thats how it ends, I end up slightly up, yet if I've played the odds & got say, 10 pnts on the winner @ an average 3/1, then I finish up. Obviously, if one side takes a flyer & the other is 10/1 the first night, I can back it with 4 pnts, say, & not have to touch it again, unless I go over on something else. Its a bit difficult to explain, TBH, I think I'm confusing myself :lol

[Winrew]

Re: Cricketing Capers Interesting reading Swoops :ok I,ll follow it with interest......good luck.:D

[swooperman]

Re: Cricketing Capers I'm thinking of going straight on the draw here TBH, with Bet365 opening at 6/5. I'm waiting for Stan James to show an interest & publish prices, but nothing yet. The problem obviously is if I take the draw & sit on the 2 wins, & SA get off to an absolute flyer by bowling first & reducing WI to 80-6, say, then I'm highly unlikely to get any value then on SA, & will end up throwing well over the odds to cover it. But if I cover both the draw & SA I might as well not bet yet & start in-running, but I like to get the margin in quick, because I can see the situstion where we have 3 hours play & then nothing for 2 days, & the draw odds then are horrendous. 2 days to go, will sit on it for time being.

[merlin]

Re: Cricketing Capers Great thread Swooperman, will be looking forward to your findings with interest.Fancy South Africa to 'do' Windies, but as you say might be well worth waiting.Cheers.;)

[ian3012]

Re: Cricketing Capers hi swoop.... have you read a book, "Game,Set and Matched" by Iain Fletcher? an ex pro-cricketer (somerset i think).... who does a bit of betfair stuff.... i read it there, that draws in test match cricket were becoming fewer... he has some stats to show it, if i remember rightly.

[merlin]

Re: Cricketing Capers I note today that Shaun Pollock is out of this match injured, so may hay some bearing on the result.Just as wise to wait a little Swooperman.;)

[swooperman]

Re: Cricketing Capers Ian, I havent read that actually, mate, might have a look & see if I can get a hold of a copy. Merlin, I already knew Pollock was out, probably for the second test as well, & Kallis is unlikely to bowl also, so bearing it in mind, mate, cheers. All in the think-tank hopefully!! As I said, weather is s***e!! But as I can see this being a result wicket after being under covers, if there is 3 days play I think there could be a result here. I can see it being a low-scoring dogfight TBH, which youd have to back SA for as they are the known quantity, but without Pollock & possibly Kallis bowling, have they the control? Stan James odds: WI 17/2 draw Evs SA Evs Will have a ponder & come back later.... By the way, Merlin, when you say you were an ex-cricketer, were you a pro? I'd hate to make a fool of myself in front of a professional.....

[swooperman]

Re: Cricketing Capers Bet365 have shortened the draw to 11/10, which I have just taken as obviously it is being hit. Bet 1: Draw @ 11/10. Bet365. 10pnt bet (1-20) They would only allow up to £546 on this, not I hasten to add that I was trying to get that much on, just that I was being nosey. My bets as I go through will be numbered, but if I top up a bet in-running at the same or a different price, I will refer to it as 'Bet 1a, 1b.....& so on, then I will do a breakdown at thend of each test. Time short at the moment so I will come back to fully explain later.

[merlin]

Re: Cricketing Capers Hi there Swooperman, and don't get concerned about making yourself a fool in front of moi! Nah! I never attained the dizzy heights of pro.Played in the top league of the day up here in Durham though.Durham Senior League was number one of the day when I played my first match for the seniors as a mere 15 year old.Now I go along to Riverside and watch what might have been.Collingwood, Harmison and the overseas pros, always hoping for better each season,but never seems to happen.I believe the season starts somewhere around the 17th April, so it will be sarnies and flask at the ready,and probably a few woolies also!Keep up the good work on this thread,will be calling as a regular customer and of course contributor I hope.Cheers.:clap

[swooperman]

Re: Cricketing Capers I was going to make a poor, Mydogdylan type joke about whether Merlin was a 'spin wizard' in his day, but I dont think I'll bother :lol . Right, as seen above I took the draw today @ 11/10 to the value of 10 points, due to the fact that it had been shortened from 6/5, so I missed out on a point but there you go. The weather forecast is still scattered thunderstorms throughout, as it has been the last few days, but its best not to take everything as gospel. I havent taken the draw just because of the weather, its just the way I feel its best to play this test. By the way, it has actually drifted slightly back out to 23/20. It might just have been brought back in because Stan James opened @ evens. Bet365 have brought SA in to 20/23 & WI out to 8/1, Stan James remain unchanged (that 17/2 I put earlier may have been wrong on my part, probably 15/2, but wont edit, oh no....not in here!!) I'm playing this test with relatively small stakes because: 1. I've only got a 100pnt bank & I dont want to end up chasing loads if I get it wrong & have to take odds on to bale me out, & I want to build the bank up. 2. It is the first test in a 4 match series, plenty of time to raise things. 3. The weather obviously looks as though it will play a big part. 4. Nobody knows much about some of these new West Indies players due to the contractual dispute, & that could go both ways, bind the team together or it could be a rout. 5. South Africa are missing their best bowler, & its also unclear whether Jacques Kallis will definetly bowl. 6. Personally, I think it could be a dogfight due to the wicket. & 7.......I'm beginning to think I might have picked an absolute b*****d to start off with :lol but there you go......onwards. By taking the draw @ 11/10 @ 10 points I now view that as my 'match bank' as it were, & aim to work within that. The bookies rarely let the draw odds lengthen much unless a test is very advanced, or somebody is taking a right kicking, & certainly not when you've got a weather forecast like this one. Therefore I have 11 points betting money if you like, & aim to use that to get myself in credit on my favoured result, or even both results. Test cricket is a long game, over 5 days, & if you make one pick to start with, anything could happen over the course of the match, it is the most 'selfish, team-minded' game I know of, if you see what I mean. One player can change a match more so I believe than in any other sport, & it is difficult to get all this right 5 days in advance. Therefore I have taken the draw odds now as I dont believe they will get any better whilst the match is still a contest, but could the same be said about the SA odds?, yes it probably could, but that is the gamble. I could cover myself now on WI by taking the odds of 15/2 to the tune of 2 points, which would return 15 points, & obviously in the event of a WI win I would be in profit over the draw of 5 points, although undoubtedly if that was going to happen I would have topped it up more by then. But I believe even if WI make a decent start their odds will not rocket in & there should be plenty of opportunity to take them at slightly under these odds. Really I could do with a decent WI start to give some value in the SA odds, although I was tempted by the 11/10 on SA @ Stan James slightly earlier, but if I was going to take that now I would be ruling out almost all of my potential profit. I'm seriously waffling now, its probably nervousness TBH, as I dont normally get butterflies like this when I'm about to walk out to bat!! Anyway, to summarise for now, I view the 11 potential points from the draw as my bank, & if I use all 11 points trying to get profit from either/each win & it ends up a draw, then I have lost nothing. But the search is on for the best odds during the match to use this to my advantage, & if for example SA get off to a flyer & run the game throughout & there is never any value in their odds, then I have to use more of the bank to lay the deficit off at odds on, but the trick is when to bite the bullet, as if I lay @ 1/3 say, & then the expected result doesnt happen, them I'm really in it. Sounds simple, doesnt it :( Ps, my club captain told me today that we had signed a Sri-Lankan professional for the season, & he had played 2 tests :eek I promptly asked him to ring him back up & see what his thoughts about their chances in NZ next week were.........he wasnt amused :o

[mr onemore]

Re: Cricketing Capers

...whether Merlin was a 'spin wizard' in his day...

:rollin :rollin :rollin

[merlin]

Re: Cricketing Capers It's funny that you should say that Mr.O. as a matter of fact I was an off spinner and number four batsman, a bit of an all rounder, you must have been looking!;)

[Pie-chucker]

Re: Cricketing Capers Sponsorship row. Gayle and Sarwan have broken ranks and 'just want to play'. Others expected to follow. They are available for selection for 1st Test but doubt a) whether they are on the mainland and b) Board will disrupt the side at this notice. The demise of the draw as a likely result. Faster run rates as Swoop mentions plus 'time made up' in later days. Bookies seem always to keep it cramped, though. Weather forecast. CNN and Yahoo Weather are thunderstormy. Weather Underground go showers-fine-partly cloud-p/c-p/c-p/c. Thunderstorm in Guyana can mean downpour at 5.00pm each evening and hot sun for play on time next morning. Therefore little lost time. Our man on the spot. Would it be possible to get real locals on this thread to give their real knowledge of local conditions? Look at the sky,sort of thing. The system. Like the concept a lot: the changing dynamic (sometimes slow, sometimes fast) over five days. My thinking. Sorry Swoop :\ but I'd start with the presumption each test will have a result. (particularly when groundsman are frustrated in preparation as in this case and as you point out). On this one I'm going with Centrebet's 7-1 Windies at 2 pts and play that in running. And advise re-alignment. Swoop, sorry to go up against you in your first test. Perhaps this is not the forum to do it :eyes. Like your system proposal. :clap

[Pie-chucker]

Re: Cricketing Capers Raining in Guyana. Odds on draw shortening. Your man in Hong Kong 7 hours ahead UK. rgds Pie.

[swooperman]

Re: Cricketing Capers PC, no probs mate, as I said I'm not convinced about the draw myself as I feel 3 days may be enough for a result, but this is just how Ive decided to play this test. The weather means the draw is a real possibility if there is so much rain the outfield is flooded, as has happened here before. I thought about taking the WI first up & using that as a bank as well, the advantage being that the original outlay was less, but if so much time is lost then a WI win is out of the question whereas a draw is obviously still the main chance. Also, in both scenarios, if SA get off to a flyer & rule the match from start to finish, youve got the same problem in both scenarios of taking odds on & laying off. Ive taken the bigger outlay option to keep the result alive longer, if you see what I mean.....cheers for the input anyway :ok As for the locals on the ground, I'm gonna hav e to make serious profit to incorporate those kind of overheads :lol Kiwi, jump on that plane, be a good sport, & get back to Napier for monday :loon Ps, the other thinking on taking the draw first is the price is unlikely to improve much until the game is really swinging one way, unlike 1 teams odds which we know will swing with a couple of wickets. As weve both pointed out, PC, the bookies give little away on the draw. Also, stop having a go on my thread :lol :lol only joking, mate, more than welcome :ok

[Pie-chucker]

Re: Cricketing Capers OK. But back to your Free Style system. Swoop: 'match bank' of 11 and an outlay of 10. Pie: 14 at 2 Yup, reflects 'thunderstorms' and WI in disarray and crap anyway. But, first game in series, still think this gives me more 'torque' for later bets in match, if any.

[Kiwi_punter]

Re: Cricketing Capers

As for the locals on the ground, I'm gonna hav e to make serious profit to incorporate those kind of overheads :lol Kiwi, jump on that plane, be a good sport, & get back to Napier for monday :loon

I'm on the case. :ok

[mr onemore]

Re: Cricketing Capers Swoops - any thoughts on India v Pakistan ODI - I ask as I've been looking into this one myself, and will be having a little bet - in fact I've been doing a fair bit of work and might start a thread up soon! Still, interested in a cricket fans view of the match and series.

[swooperman]

Re: Cricketing Capers Bet 2: West Indies @ 9/1. Stan James. 2.5pnt bet Took this as while I was driving earlier I thought to myself that if WI went out this far without a ball being bowled, I would be foolish not to take it, as we are dealing with very much an unknown quantity here, & still wouldnt be that surprised to see Chris Gayle walking out to open. Think that you have to back the SA batting to outbat the WI, but not sure they should really be that far apart in price, SA are missing their best bowler & still havent heard if Kallis bowling either. On the other hand, for WI to get an imposing total you feel Chanderpaul has to seriously contribute, & with 3 tons & an average of 90 on his home ground, that could be the case, but hes not very tall now, & with the pressure on his shoulders here, he could end up a dwarf by monday :lol Not raining at the moment in Guyana but early there. Just a thought, if no play today by any chance, will West Indies name their side today or will the temptation be too great?? Mr.O - have looked at the India-Pakistan series overall but only at the first 2 games in detail, may just watch the first one but probably depends on play in this test TBH. Its not as easy to get an angle in-running on one dayers, but first thoughts would be too fancy Pakistan TBH. PC - I was only joking , mate, in case I didnt put enough smiley things :ok Also, before the mods moan, I'm not intending everything on cricket coming in here, main reasoning hopefully happening on OS, with generalisations in here :hope

[swooperman]

Re: Cricketing Capers 'kin hell - page 2 + 6 posts & they havent tossed up yet :o

[Datapunter]

Re: Cricketing Capers who's moaning, i'm loving this, great read, even if i don't know anything about cricket, love to follow all the reasoning. So, ... ermm .. the wicket ... i always thought that's them 3 stick-things the bowlers try to hit, but its the patch of ground in the middle then ? Got a link to : "The basics of cricket" ? Better read up on the game a bit :lol

[swooperman]

Re: Cricketing Capers Phew......thought that would be a b******ing :lol West Indies won the toss & bat, as the norm, so wicket cant be really bad. Apparently looks ok. They are expecting a run-feast pitch. Pagon & Deonarine only debutants for WI. Hot & humid at the moment. Wavell Hinds & Smith (Devon?) opening against Nel & Ntini.

[swooperman]

Re: Cricketing Capers 24-2!! Smith & Ganga gone, only 6 overs played......... WI out to 12/1. SA in to 8/11.........no value for them yet (if ever) Think Chanderpaul in next with Hinds, thats big, need a partnership now. Could this be the first ever 1 day test? :lol