Teodore Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Re: Ligue 1 Orange > January 17th - 19th What about Monaco away win tomorrow? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ivan-ikonomov Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Re: Ligue 1 Orange > January 17th - 19th Lol shockingly poor level of football, no wonder french teams are beaten in european competitions week in week out. Even some league one sides can come to rennes or evian and beat them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senk Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Re: Ligue 1 Orange > January 17th - 19th Let's start with the good news. lorient won their game with 2-0! Both bets won and it went as expected. They scored 2 early goals and it was enough for the win. Great defending over the whole game! Rennes on the other hand, men oh men.. Why on earth did he bench Alessandrini and Oliveira? Ended 0-0 and although they were the better side in this game like last week they could not even score 1 goal. Pretty poor in my eyes and I will leave them alone for a while. Meatman, great call on Bastia mate. They keep on getting positive results at home against rather strong opponents! Keep it up guys Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatman Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Re: Ligue 1 Orange > January 17th - 19th Ligue 1 is actually pissing me fucking off at the moment. Yet again tonight I have unreal bad luck. Lorient - Guingamp goes 2-0 after 13 mins and then no more goals despite a shit ton of chances. How this match didn't end over really is beyond me The same with Rennes Evian, this has to be the most open 0-0 I have seen in ages. Rennes had so many opportunities in the final 3rd of the field but wasted their good positions. I'll take a hit on Sochaux losing, they were bloody dire. But I should've had 4/5 winners tonight instead I have 3/5 full losers. Totally sick of Ligue 1 Reims +0.25 will likely be a play of mine tomorrow and I'll preview that game. But nothing interests me in the other 2 and I have no motivation to even look at them. Sorry all but Ligue 1 is generally defeating me at the moment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatman Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Re: Ligue 1 Orange > January 17th - 19th Lol shockingly poor level of football' date=' no wonder french teams are beaten in european competitions week in week out. Even some league one sides can come to rennes or evian and beat them.[/quote'] Rennes just looked offensively pathetic. All hot air plenty of decent positions but just shocking when it came to the final ball, a cross or a shot. Too many of their players were greedy too. No excuses for them tonight they should beat a side like Evian who looked genuinely knackered in the 2nd half. I actually think the simple answer is that Rennes are actually just a fucking crap side right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatman Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Re: Ligue 1 Orange > January 17th - 19th Poor night for all of us,i dont understand Meatman last couple weeks why is puting money on teams like Sochoux,Clermont,Chateroux.... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk The problem is I'm not predicting matches well enough at the moment. There has been the odd poor bet - Sochaux was one tonight in all fairness, I shouldn't really be placing much money on a poor side like them. But for the most part I can't criticise my bets too much, most of them had value. I just need to forecast games better, like I was a couple of months ago. What's cost me this round is taking on 2 teams who have played a lot of matches recently (4 games in 10 days, St Etienne, Evian) Usually sides in this position in France do absolutely fuck all, but for some reason both have kept clean sheets and picked up decent results. Bizarre Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senk Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Re: Ligue 1 Orange > January 17th - 19th Bad luck men, can't think of anything else. I was watching Rennes game live and through bet365. They had more than 105 dangerous attacks wtf :D Normally you see like 50 or something at max. Amazing open football and still a 0-0. Lorient has a really solid defense but if you lead 2-0 after 13 minutes you should expect some decent counter attacks for a 3th goal.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatman Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Re: Ligue 1 Orange > January 17th - 19th Bad luck men' date=' can't think of anything else. I was watching Rennes game live and through bet365. They had more than 105 dangerous attacks wtf :D Normally you see like 50 or something at max. Amazing open football and still a 0-0. Lorient has a really solid defense but if you lead 2-0 after 13 minutes you should expect some decent counter attacks for a 3th goal..[/quote'] Yeh the Lorient match was serious bad luck for me. It should've ended something like 6-2 such were the chances. Rennes leave a bitter taste in my mouth but maybe I just overrate them right now. Cursing my luck that Evian played midweek now because I doubt I'd have taken them if both sides had had the same amount of rest and preparation time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senk Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Re: Ligue 1 Orange > January 17th - 19th Im with you men.. I also probably would have skipped this one if Evian had more rest and some better results! But, all in all it was not a bad bet in my eyes. Rennes should have won the game and sometimes it's just not happening. Evian was better than we expected after all those heavy defeats, we skipped the cup games and now they leave us with a bitter taste :D That's football mate, no worries. Tomorrow I also feel Reims can atleast score a goal at home. They hold a great record at home winning against Monaco for example. But Lyon is on fire lately and I'm not sure if fatigue will play an important roll here. They are doing really well lately and even away from home they often win their games. I definitely will look at the BTS option here. Can't see any team keeping a cleansheet in this form. I don't think I will place a bet against Lyon but a draw would not be a hugh surprise too. Hard one to call for 1x2! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatman Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Re: Ligue 1 Orange > January 17th - 19th Reims – Lyon Injuries and absences have no effect on either side here, nobody important is ruled out. An interesting development is that Lyon GK Remy Vercoutre isn’t included in the squad due to behavioral reasons. He’s basically furious that the young Anthony Lopes has stolen his spot in the team. Perhaps this has unsettled the squad a little bit, but I doubt it. It must be noted that Lyon were in action on Wednesday night in the CDL and beat Marseille 2-1. They fielded a very strong side in that fixture so maybe they could feel the effects here. Lyon are of course used to midweek games due to their participation in Europe, but Remi Garde usually fielded weakened XIs in those fixtures, not such a strong one as he did vs OM. I strongly fancy Reims in this fixture, at least not to lose. I’ve said many times about how lucky they’ve been away from home this season, but there’s no doubting that they’ve always been legitimately good in front of their own fans since they got promoted last August. Le Stade Delaune is a bit of a fortress and a very difficult place for any visiting side to come. There is sure to be a really hot atmosphere and life will be made difficult for Lyon. Of course this is the 14:00 KO match and for those who follow me regularly then you will know how much I love backing home teams in these fixtures. The trend is really strong and away sides rarely win these games. Backing Reims +0.25 is an obvious no brainer bet. Lyon have no right to be such strong favourites for this game, they are an ok team, but nothing special. Looks like a home win or a draw to me and the visitors could struggle. Prediction: Reims 1-0 Lyon Recommended bet: Reims +0.25 @ 1.87 5/10 Other predictions today (no bets for either game). From now on I won’t be doing in depth previews for any matches I don’t have picks for. Toulouse 0-1 Monaco PSG 2-1 Nantes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neilovan Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Re: Ligue 1 Orange > January 17th - 19th Meatman, I don't think you need to beat yourself up here. These good and bad runs are part of betting. You know what you are doing, you just have a slight dip in form. It's like playing Poker. Anything can happen in the short term, and any donkee can beat you. Just keep your cool, be patient and do the right things... The French League is a bastard to bet on. Realistically, it is an under 2.5 goal league (only Portugal has a higher under 2.5 percentage) It is also a the leader in under 4.5 goal percentage (93% of games are under 4.5 goals). To me it makes sense not to swim upstream. ie You don't want to be making too many over 2.5 goal bets in a league that is consistently under 2.5, unless there is overwhelming evidence. Likewise you would not like to be making many under 2.5 goal bets in the Dutch Eredivisie, where goals are like cloudy days in January. Another massive problem with the French Ligue is that it is draw heavy. This season the drawn game percentage is 29%, while England, Scotland and Spain are at 20% Just finish the season winning more than you lose ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoFear Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Re: Ligue 1 Orange > January 17th - 19th From now on I won’t be doing in depth previews for any matches I don’t have picks for. I think thats a good decision. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neilovan Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Re: Ligue 1 Orange > January 17th - 19th Reims v Lyon Only 2 teams in European soccer have been over 2.5 goals in every away game this season Lyon and Roda. Lyon have been BTTS in 8 of their last 9 away games. Reims have been over in 4 of their last 5 home games. Also strange with Lyon is the goals they have been conceding away to average / poor teams They have given up 2 goals or more in 6 of 8 away games. Straight away I'm going overs in an unders league, but the price and the statistics make this a solid bet for me. The over 2.5 goals odds are a juicy 2.1 and it's worth 2 units. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ivan-ikonomov Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Re: Ligue 1 Orange > January 17th - 19th The Marseille match was called off because of heavy winds and rain for those that were wondering. Meatman, do you think it's a good idea to place the same bet on the Marseille game if it's rescheduled for today or sometime next week? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senk Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Re: Ligue 1 Orange > January 17th - 19th I don't have much time guys but I'm on the BTS option with medium stakes. Both teams in great form and I fancy them to get atleast a goal. Especially lyon scores and concedes in many games. Reims are great at home and like meatman said they have a slight advantage due early kick-off. But I wont pic a winner too hard for me. Goodluck! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ivan-ikonomov Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Re: Ligue 1 Orange > January 17th - 19th Apparently Toulouse have some injuries to important players to deal with. http://injuriesandsuspensions.com/france-ligue-1-injuries-suspensions-79/ They have a good home record this season with just one loss, but I think it's time for Monaco to come back to winning ways. It may not be by a big margin, so Monaco to win by one goal Bet365 seems a good call. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatman Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Re: Ligue 1 Orange > January 17th - 19th Meatman' date=' do you think it's a good idea to place the same bet on the Marseille game if it's rescheduled for today or sometime next week?[/quote'] It all just depends when it's rescheduled for mate. Wed 29th Jan is the first available date. It can't be played this midweek because of the Coupe de France Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatman Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Re: Ligue 1 Orange > January 17th - 19th @Neilovan Yeh over 2.5 line is dangerous to bet on in France. I have a new rule after I lost in the Lyon - Sochaux match last week - don't bet over 2.5 in France unless the price is 2.0 or more But realistically if you're going to back an over then Over 2 or 2.25 line would be better in France Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
west64 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Re: Ligue 1 Orange > January 17th - 19th Agree with Neil, no need to work yourself up about it, as long as you didnt produce a hefty loss :) Otherwise French football is amongst the most unpredictable in my opinion (others being Russian and Turkish leagues). But thats why it usualy provides with good value either way :) I am sorry you will not be posting full previews for all matches, because I always found them helpful, regardless of the outcome (I usualy pick different bets, asians are not my game, but its based on your write ups), but I can imagine it takes quite much of your time, so I fully understand your position. Last night, really good call by senk for Lorient game, somehow evaded the rennes match so it didnt bother me later on. But I would like to add also, that this league, even if it produces loads of unders, it also provides good value when betting on overs, espcialy league 2 can have massive odds on over 1,5. For today, I really fancy a draw in Reims. The hosts are one of my favorite teams in france, producing amazing football at home against top tier teams. Lyon is showing some life in the last few weeks, upping their game and chasing the european spots on the table, although im quite sure they will have to focus on the cup to get there. But Reims seems really solid and when I take into account the cup match, Lyon seemed to dominate, but still Reims managed to score a goal and aquire a late penalty, which didnt help their cause. From what Ive seen from Reims this season (and last year they managed to surprise a few), they should have what it takes to hold Lyon at a draw today, but what scares me is their win over LOSC which might boost their confidence. Still not sure, have to check other factors, but I do see value in: FT - DRAW @ 3.0 (bet365 ) HT/FT - DRAW/DRAW @ 4.75 (bet365) BTTS @ 1.80 (bet365) Really will enjoy watching this match so I am very tempted in loading it a bit :) Might give it a shot with Floyd Ayite being anytime scorer @ 5.0 for a few units. He does have his long distance shot, which might prove useful in this match if Lyon decide to tighten up at the back. Last game (even if it was a cup game) provided a safer approach in the first half, so this time it could be similar.. Can you guys give me your views regarding my picks? Would be easier to decide... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shima Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Re: Ligue 1 Orange > January 17th - 19th Im interested in Meatman ROI,this guy cant even hit a double chance...i will start to tip this league im sure i will have better percentage than him Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatman Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Re: Ligue 1 Orange > January 17th - 19th Im interested in Meatman ROI' date='this guy cant even hit a double chance...i will start to tip this league im sure i will have better percentage than him[/quote'] 4% for the season in Ligue 1. With a +20 unit profit I've lost 40 units in Ligue 1 since December 3rd. Not really sure what's been going wrong. Reims +0.25 was the right bet today, I don't care what anyone says this was a value pick. Reims would not lose a game like this very often and its rare Lyon would come to a place like this and win. Lyon played very well though and were tactically spot on. Their coach Remi Garde is usually pathetic at putting together gameplans but inexplicably he totally nailed it today. It's just another case of me failing to call a game properly. I have lost the ability to assess teams that well in recent weeks. If I keep losing in the next 2-3 weeks I will stop putting picks up for Ligue 1. I don't want to keep costing people and this run has totally been unacceptable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatman Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Re: Ligue 1 Orange > January 17th - 19th Value is also on Levante tonight but i belive in Barcelona,man that reason sucks "value is on Reims" Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I should add that I actually fancied Reims as well and believed in them to get a decent result. I didn't just bet on them for pure value sakes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shima Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Re: Ligue 1 Orange > January 17th - 19th 4% for the season in Ligue 1. With a +20 unit profit If I keep losing in the next 2-3 weeks I will stop putting picks up for Ligue 1. I don't want to keep costing people and this run has totally been unacceptable. Fair enough,it was value bet but why to post some "value" with so high percentage to loose,i know Reims is traditionaly great at home but Lyon lost only once in last 14 matches! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
west64 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Re: Ligue 1 Orange > January 17th - 19th It doesnt suck, coz in a way there was value on Reims... The game ended up costing me a full 13 units, but nothing to do here, Lyon were very good, quite tight as expected, Reims should have scored surely, but in the end Lyon showed up today and thats that... Im actualy so pissed, that I might end up backing Toulouse or something :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shima Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Re: Ligue 1 Orange > January 17th - 19th It doesnt suck, coz in a way there was value on Reims... The game ended up costing me a full 13 units, but nothing to do here, Lyon were very good, quite tight as expected, Reims should have scored surely, but in the end Lyon showed up today and thats that... Im actualy so pissed, that I might end up backing Toulouse or something :) Toulouse is more value bet than Reims,u should try Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ivan-ikonomov Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Re: Ligue 1 Orange > January 17th - 19th I don't know what's so right with always searching for prices of 1.75 or above for a few units. This week I placed 100 units on Real and Barca to win which would generate a 46 unit profit. That's the way to go. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
west64 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Re: Ligue 1 Orange > January 17th - 19th Well i am all for Toulouse not to lose :) it even rhymes... Monaco is unimpressive at best. @ Bojanst Primera is not my league, hardly bet there, and especialy barca games are not my cup of tea. poz od grobara ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatman Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Re: Ligue 1 Orange > January 17th - 19th Fair enough' date='it was value bet but why to post some "value" with so high percentage to loose,i know Reims is traditionaly great at home but Lyon lost only once in last 14 matches![/quote'] The chances of me losing weren't high though backing a +0.25 cap. Reims had only lost 3 home games in the last calendar year before today, one of which was to PSG which is excusable. They have always usually played their better football against bigger reputation sides like Lyon at home. For Lyon to win away from home in a match starting at 14:00 is also remarkable. There have been a total of 45 games played at this time in France so far this season (L1 & 2) and only 8 times had an away side won. 29/45 ended as home wins. What's even more remarkable is that they did it on the back of playing a midweek match at full strength! Literally there was no logical reason to suggest why Lyon would win this match, either statistically or in terms of performance. It's not as if they fluked it either, this was actually a deserved win. I have no explanation how they managed to pull this off so convincingly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senk Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Re: Ligue 1 Orange > January 17th - 19th Are u guys crazy? How can u be so negative about one of the best tipsters on this forum. He puts in so much effort and time every single week with a lot of good picks. Reims +0.25 was not bad at all cause of their great home record. I skipped them because I felt lyon is realy improving these days and they won in the end but this won't happen many times. Maybe today it was not the right choice but what the heck? He often really give great tips and I never heard of you guys here before? U just come here to be negative after 1 or 2 lost picks. Really annoying cause meatman really contributes a lot to this forum and you guys are not. You can give your opinion fine but try to give some advice yourself if youu know it better and dont follow him. A lot of people here respect him and madr good profit because of his picks. Bad streaks will end and maybe just choose 2 best games in 1 round better for the upcoming weeks. Good up the good work really. Cu next week! Cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jase82 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Re: Ligue 1 Orange > January 17th - 19th Trying to be slightly more constructive here than most I've had my own issues over backing sides on a +0.25 when the odds are around 1.8. Sometimes it doesn't matter whether that side is home or away, but I've put it down to the fact + 0.25 is often psychologically seen as equal to taking that side not to lose, when as we know it's not. It's half on the win, half on the draw. So I think it's quite easy to assume that the side in question won't lose, when no assessment has been made of their chances of actually winning the game. Because the + 0.25 awards a proportion of the percentage chance to team A winning when they may actually be poor value for the straight win. In those circumstances you're basically throwing half your stake away because the team in question are further away from the win and only just about value for the draw. Under that criteria I think it's often prudent to go with a -0.25, which I assume would be around even money, which may provide the hidden value. Also I can't understand why Ligue One gets so much attention, and can only put it down to the fact Meatman is here in the first place. It a society thing, when people put someone on a god like pedestal only to realise they're not god, and subsequently vilify them for not fulfilling their wildest dreams. If Meatman wasn't here, would French football get so much attention? I don't think so. So knocking the very thing you've all come here for (not all obviously as most are full time contributors). French football is notoriously a hard league. Why not put some time and effort into other leagues - Spain, Italy, Portugal, Belgium... etc etc... After all, how many people here are actually French? :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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