Australian Open 2014

[Mattyos]

Re: Australian Open 2014

You are not understanding my version of bad match-up. Bad match-up is the one handed backhand versus this incredible booming topspin forehand from Nadal. AT critical points in this match, Nadal will win this match-up. Djokovic and Murray can nullify it with the 2 handed backhand. Federer, Gasquet and Wawrinka will struggle with it. Not that they are bad players, just the stringing techniques and the rev's that Nadal is generating with his forehand is incessantly brutal. Also, you guys are overplaying this blister thing. If it gets really bad, Nadal will stop playing and all bets are off so it's actually a non-entity...

I did understand what you were getting at, it's just that in my opinion Nadal just hasn't been as consistent with that forehand as usual. Something just doesn't look right - whether it's the blister or not I don't know. At times he has been at his brutal best, but to me just not as often as usual. Nadal at his top, I agree with you. Nadal in this tournament I just don't see it. And I've certainly never seen him give it away easily!!!

[edtkh]

Re: Australian Open 2014 10pts Nadal -3.5 Games @ 10/11 (William Hill) I honestly can't really understand how Nadal's line is incredibly low as I would expect a 5.5/6.5 line to be a more reasonable spread. Granted, Federer has played some of the best tennis I have seen him play over the last 18 months (this is coming from someone who has observed Federer at close quarters since 2003) and his partnership with Edberg has done wonders to improve his game as well. The biggest change I have detected is Federer is now cutting the points a lot shorter knowing full well it would be to his detriment to prolong rallies - and he's become more patient at that compared to how he would use to go for these wild shots in recent years. That, however, is hardly going to be enough to trouble a fluid mover like Nadal as their rivalry over the years would attest. However, beyond the mental edge Nadal obviously has over Federer, it's easy to be misled by the supposed "performances" of the two players coming into this match. Federer has been nothing short of splendid (his straight sets win over Tsonga surprised me more than his 3-1 win over a semi-fit and out-of-sorts Murray) and much has been made of Nadal's struggles in the earlier rounds. I am amazed no one has pointed out a glaring fact - Nadal actually has a propensity to struggle in day sessions and seems to come on as a completely different animal in the night ones. His performances over Tomic (albeit evening session) and Kokkinakis would have provided little to suggest the thrashing he'd dish out to Monfils subsequently. Thereafter, he has followed that up with further lacklustre displays against Nishikori and Dimitrov - and now, the talk of the town seems to indicate Federer's going to win this one. It simply doesn't quite make sense to believe Nadal's supremacy in recent years will suddenly be diminished on the back of Federer's Indian summer - I am not even factoring in his blister here as what he has now is nothing close to what he had to deal with in his Rome Masters final against Coria (who was the leading claycourt player by a long mile) some years back. Nadal's guile and industry will run and grind Federer down - it has been 7 years since Federer last beat Nadal in a Grand Slam match at Wimbledon in 2007. That is not going to change anytime soon.

[Mattyos]

Re: Australian Open 2014

You are not understanding my version of bad match-up. Bad match-up is the one handed backhand versus this incredible booming topspin forehand from Nadal. AT critical points in this match, Nadal will win this match-up. Djokovic and Murray can nullify it with the 2 handed backhand. Federer, Gasquet and Wawrinka will struggle with it. Not that they are bad players, just the stringing techniques and the rev's that Nadal is generating with his forehand is incessantly brutal. Also, you guys are overplaying this blister thing. If it gets really bad, Nadal will stop playing and all bets are off so it's actually a non-entity...

Sorry, I wasn't specifically referring to your post, just the general sentiment that I have heard. I did understand what you were getting at, it's just that in my opinion Nadal's forehand just hasn't been as consistent as usual. He will need more than 1 shot to beat Fed in this match. And I have never seen Nadal give it away easily!!! For those interested, I went with the "set exacta" of Nadal/Fed/Fed/Fed @ $15 with Sportingbet. Either way, let's hope the match lives up to expectations!

[CzechPunter]

Re: Australian Open 2014 Back Dominika Cibulkova (+1.5 sets) to beat Na Li for a 7/10 stake at 1.87 with Pinnacle It would take a brave man to write Cibulkova off in her first Grand Slam final. She is playing stunning tennis at the moment, with her high intensity causing plenty of problems for her opponents. Na Li will be under plenty of pressure here as well, so I would say that a set should be fully within Cibulkova's range on Saturday. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/cibulkova-vs-li-betting-dominika-cibulkova-not-to-be-written-off-in-her-first-grand-slam-final

[CzechPunter]

Re: Australian Open 2014 Back Butorac/Klaasen vs Kubot/Lindstedt for a 6/10 stake at 2.00 with William Hill Eric Butorac and Raven Klaasen are playing the best tennis of their lives, so I fancy them to complete their dream run with a win on Saturday. What they did to the tremendously experienced duos of Bryan/Bryan and Nestor/Zimonjic was nothing short of amazing and I think they'll come out on top here. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/butorac-klaasen-vs-kubot-lindstedt-betting-butorac-and-klaasen-can-complete-their-dream-run-with-a-win-on-saturday

[homunculus]

Re: Australian Open 2014

I must oppose Czech in this: Federer to bt Nadal @2.43 local bookie (9/10) LOSS

Roger was UE galore today (50 UEs in just 31 games). Congrats to Rafa backer, I was wrong.

[romesh89]

Re: Australian Open 2014

Back Dominika Cibulkova (+1.5 sets) to beat Na Li for a 7/10 stake at 1.87 with Pinnacle It would take a brave man to write Cibulkova off in her first Grand Slam final. She is playing stunning tennis at the moment, with her high intensity causing plenty of problems for her opponents. Na Li will be under plenty of pressure here as well, so I would say that a set should be fully within Cibulkova's range on Saturday. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/cibulkova-vs-li-betting-dominika-cibulkova-not-to-be-written-off-in-her-first-grand-slam-final

Why don't you bet over 2.5 sets at $2.50?

[CzechPunter]

Re: Australian Open 2014

Why don't you bet over 2.5 sets at $2.50?

Two reasons. First, I can actually see Cibulkova winning this in two after seeing her against Radwanska. Second, I still have the pre-tournament outright on Na Li in play, so I am guaranteeing some profit with this bet unless Na Li retires. The bet you suggest is a decent alternative, however, and I wouldn't want to put you off it.

[neilovan]

Re: Australian Open 2014 Two bets here. Being a South African I am really happy to see a fellow saffer (Raven Klaasen) in the mens doubles final. These are unseeded guys making it to the final , and beating some seriously good doubles specialists on the way. They beat Bryan/Bryan 7-6 6-4 in the 3rd round, and for them their toughest game was the one straight afterwards. Getting through that they have grown and grown. Playing great doubles, and dominating. Understand the Bryan / Bryan have won the Aussie open 6 ? times, and been beaten in the final 3 times. It's an incredible performance, from mega underdogs. Happy to back them for 2 units to win it. Womans FInal. Can't really see Li Na losing it, but the odds are crap. Perhaps better to go in play, and hope she drops the 1st set.

[CzechPunter]

Re: Australian Open 2014 Back Mirza/Tecau vs Mladenovic/Nestor for a 5/10 stake at 2.71 with Pinnacle I am happy to have a small punt on the underdogs at such a price here. Both teams know what it takes to win a Grand Slam title and mixed doubles are often decided by one of the four players not turning up on the day, so I am not sure why Mladenovic and Nestor deserve this sort of favoritism. Mirza/Tecau lost against Mladenovic/Nestor last time out, but the scoreline read 7-6 7-6, so it wasn't a clear-cut result by any means. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/mirza-tecau-vs-mladenovic-nestor-betting-an-upset-might-be-on-the-cards-in-the-mixed-doubles

[CzechPunter]

Re: Australian Open 2014 Back R.Nadal/S.Wawrinka - Under 38 games for a 7/10 stake at 1.86 with Pinnacle I would love to see Wawrinka being competitive in this one, but I am just not seeing it to be honest. The blister didn't seem to be an issue in the semis, so it shouldn't be an issue here either, which leads me to believe that this one is going to go under the 38 games line more often than not. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/nadal-vs-wawrinka-betting-rafael-nadal-looks-set-to-capture-his-second-australian-open-title

[neilovan]

Re: Australian Open 2014

Back R.Nadal/S.Wawrinka - Under 38 games for a 7/10 stake at 1.86 with Pinnacle I would love to see Wawrinka being competitive in this one, but I am just not seeing it to be honest. The blister didn't seem to be an issue in the semis, so it shouldn't be an issue here either, which leads me to believe that this one is going to go under the 38 games line more often than not. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/nadal-vs-wawrinka-betting-rafael-nadal-looks-set-to-capture-his-second-australian-open-title

I am seeing a competitive game here. Wawrinka has really impressed me. He seems very strong physically and mentally. I was very impressed with the number of times he was able to serve himself out of trouble against Berdych. His only loss of serve was when leading 40-0, cost him the second set. He has a fkg cannon for a 1st serve, and can bring it for 5 sets if necessary. I know his H2H with Nadal is terrible, but I feel that Wawrinka is coming of age. The win over Djokovic is a massive mental boost. I think he is serving better than Federer, and if he can be competitive and do the business against Djokovic, I think he can do similar against Nadal. I am not saying he is going to win, but he will be competitive If I had to ask you a question... On current performance how would you evaluate a Nadal v Djokovic final ? Under 38 games or Nadal to win 3-0 in sets is the question ? If Nadal was to win in straight sets assume one set is a breaker , and the other 2 have one break of serve per set SO 13 games plus 9 plus 10 = 32 games bet 365 is 11/8 for under 34 games bet 365 is 10/11 for Nadal to win 3-0 If Nadal wins 3-0 it will probably be under 34 games. SO you have to take the under 34 games instead of the Nadal winning 3-0 for better odds. If you are going over 38 games you need to weigh these odds (11/10) against Nadal winning 3-1 in sets (5/2). I am not sure of what to do yet

[NoFear]

Re: Australian Open 2014 I agree with neil here. If he can stay competitive against djokovic, he can compete with nadal. People always say it depends on which wawrinka is going to turn up. Not the case here as we all know which wawrinka is going to turn up. Its the bloody final.

[owenclass]

Re: Australian Open 2014 Na Li vs Dominika Cibulkova over 21.5 games 10/11 skybet Na Li to win 2-1 14/5 skybet one player who has been in grand slam finals and another that is playing her first so people might expect the favourite to win easily but there is signs from her opponent is that she can hold her own and should keep it close with Li just edging it after three sets

[CzechPunter]

Re: Australian Open 2014 I don't know guys, we will see on Sunday though. Yes, he was great against Djokovic and what not, but I feel that he peaked there, while Nadal will peak in the finals. He will need to play much better than he did against Berdych to stand a chance, Berdych got a few 0-15s 0-30s on his serve but got to only one break-ball, which he didn't convert. Nadal will get to those break-balls, he always does.

[paul21144]

Re: Australian Open 2014 Nadal will absolutely win this, no issue for me. Very bold statement to make perhaps after Wawrinka took out Djokovic in 5, and Berdych enroute to his debut slam final. I didn't see the Djokovic game, but clearly to beat Novak in 5 shows he's playing well. I saw the first three sets v Berdych, who didn't push on from having the match on his racquet in the second. I did see Nadal v Federer semi, and Nadal played the best hard court match I can recall watching. Unbelievable defence, absolutely ridiculous. I think the blisters will be less of a problem in this match too. I just think Wawrinka will get frustrated and make way way way too many errors to pose a threat here. He really is going to need to have an A+ game, and get into one hell of a grove knocking off winners from all over the court in short rallies. Long rallies Rafa all day long. I guess from betting purposes, the only issue could be set 1. Nadal perhaps should have lost the first set to Federer, and did vs Dimitrov. He isn't the quickest starter it has to be said, so there could be some value in 3-1 Nadal @ around the 5-2 mark. However, Rafa @ 10-11 straight sets looks a pretty likely outcome to me. Very much looking forward to it, nice to see a débutante in their first final. 12-0 H2H does not make pretty reading, and no that is not to Wawrinka ;)

[owenclass]

Re: Australian Open 2014 A few selections for the mens final Rafael Nadal vs Stanislas Wawrinka Nadal to win 3-1 3/1 skybet Nadal to win first set 7/5 12/1 skybet Two tie breaks in the match 7/2 skybet Wawrinka over 4.5 double faults 10/11 skybet well there is one player here i think nearly everyone would know that he would be here in the final and one that is a surprise but has improved a lot the past year and while Wawrinka has played the best tennis of his life he still has to be on top form to beat a player who is up there with the greatest players of all time and i think Nadal will just to strong for his opponent as Nadal been there and done it and while his opponent should keep a set tight Nadal will have too much for him and Wawrinka might be nervous so overs for the double faults could be the way to go

[Torque]

Re: Australian Open 2014 Stanislas Wawrinka to beat Rafael Nadal @ 6.00 Betfair I was going to give the final a miss, but the more I look at it the more I think Wawrinka isn't being given the credit he deserves for a series of impressive performances in this tournament. He was not expected to beat Djokovic but came through in five tough sets, and he held his nerve well to edge Berdych in the last four. Much is being made of Wawrinka's poor record against Nadal, but his record against Djokovic wasn't a whole lot better and Wawrinka still found a way to beat him. The Swiss is probably in the best form of his career, and although Nadal has all the Grand Slam final experience he has had some surprisingly close matches during this tournament and I think his win over Federer in the last round has been overplayed to a degree. By Nadal's own admission, this is a tournament that he has struggled at in the past in comparison to the other Grand Slams, and as long as Wawrinka doesn't let the occasion get to him I think he can be competitive here.

[edtkh]

Re: Australian Open 2014 [email protected] Nadal -5.5 Games (William Hill) Considering this is an evening session match and pits a serial Grand Slam winner against a Grand Slam final debutant, Nadal to emerge victorious is pretty certain as night follows day. Injuries and an assassin taking Nadal out are just about the only factors that could deny Nadal his 14th Slam. Truth be told, I cannot understand where all this "Wawrinka ran Djokovic close, so he should do the same to Nadal" is coming from, really. By that same logic, Martin Verkerk should have won the Roland Garros in 2003 and Robin Soderling should have also won the Roland Garros in both 2009 and 2010. A swallow doesn't make a summer and while Wawrinka may have pushed Djokovic close in the Australian and US Open last year before gaming the Serb this year, I don't believe Wawrinka having Djokovic's number will have any bearing on this one. During the same period where Wawrinka had pushed Djokovic to 5 sets three times over the past 13 months, Nadal continued to chalk up 4 straight-sets victory against Wawrinka. On the back of it, I'd consider a monumental achievement if Wawrinka could take a set off Nadal (which is probable if Nadal goes on one of his mental walkabouts). For this reason, I am not backing the Nadal 3-0 and will lump on Nadal -5.5 as I believe the line, just as had been the case in the SF against Federer, is grossly off what should be a 7.5/8.5 line. Should Nadal drop a set, you could bet your bottom dollar Nadal will win a set with at least a double break (ie. 6-2 or better). Hence, in the grand scheme of things, I find it highly unrealistic for Nadal not to clear the 5.5 line. That assessment assumes Wawrinka plays his best tennis - if he comes in overwhelmed at the off, he could be in trouble from the first point. Come the end of the match, the only lingering debate will not involve Wawrinka at all; rather, it'll be the proverbial "is Nadal the greatest tennis player ever?"

[paul21144]

Re: Australian Open 2014 owenclass - You are betting on Nadal to win the first set, yet have the logic Wawrinka can take a set from him from a set down!? I cannot see that in a month of Sundays. Nadal starts slow, and will go from strength to strength. Torque – I think Wawrinka is being given plenty of credit, he must have played outstandingly well to beat Djokovic in 5. However, he wasn’t exactly firing vs an erratic Berdych in the semi and will surely be tired. First slam final and all. Nadal is playing the best tennis I have ever seen him play on a hard court, plus boosts a 12-0 H2H record with Wawrinka, who is playing in his first slam final and will be somewhat tired/ potentially nervous for the first half a set. I couldn’t consider doing Wawrinka in a 5 set show down with Nadal in this form unless his odds were around the 18-1 mark personally. I actually cannot believe Nadal is backable at 1/6. I consider there being more chance of Barcelona dropping points to Malaga in todays football, and they are around 1/22 on. I’ve gone for Nadal to win before the semis, Nadal to win @ 1/7, and under 34 games @ 11/8. May be ambitious on the game stake, I just feel if Nadal fires early this could fly by in 2 hours or so.

[CzechPunter]

Re: Australian Open 2014 Seems like neilovan was right about the "hidden" injury after all. Shame really, what a sad end to such an exciting tournament. Back to the usual from tomorrow, hope you guys are going to join me! :ok (edit: certainly hope that I didn't speak too soon :$)

[Mr Benn]

Re: Australian Open 2014

owenclass - You are betting on Nadal to win the first set, yet have the logic Wawrinka can take a set from him from a set down!? I cannot see that in a month of Sundays. Nadal starts slow, and will go from strength to strength. Torque – I think Wawrinka is being given plenty of credit, he must have played outstandingly well to beat Djokovic in 5. However, he wasn’t exactly firing vs an erratic Berdych in the semi and will surely be tired. First slam final and all. Nadal is playing the best tennis I have ever seen him play on a hard court, plus boosts a 12-0 H2H record with Wawrinka, who is playing in his first slam final and will be somewhat tired/ potentially nervous for the first half a set. I couldn’t consider doing Wawrinka in a 5 set show down with Nadal in this form unless his odds were around the 18-1 mark personally. I actually cannot believe Nadal is backable at 1/6. I consider there being more chance of Barcelona dropping points to Malaga in todays football, and they are around 1/22 on. I’ve gone for Nadal to win before the semis, Nadal to win @ 1/7, and under 34 games @ 11/8. May be ambitious on the game stake, I just feel if Nadal fires early this could fly by in 2 hours or so.

Spot on, some people seem to be obsessed with betting on the same particular bets over and over rather than analysing each match objectively and considering ALL the bets available to them. What a bizarre and difficult situation for all involved this has turned out to be. Nadal should never be winning a set in the circumstances, very poor from Wawrinka to lose a set to someone that badly injured.