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Aways


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Last year I was amazed by performance of Zbrochu's thread that picked away underdogs, and I tried to crack his method of picking the selections, which I certainly did not manage to do, but the selection method I developed last year seem to have brought some moderate profit in first half of this season, some 8% ROI. I want to see if I can maintain the same ROI for the rest of the season. So, the system consists of backing away underdogs, when home team is priced at no more than 2.30 by most bookies. I would not reveal selection method at the moment. Staking system will be flat stakes, 1 unit per bet, and I will use Pinnacle odds. Starting bank is 100 units. First picks this evening, League 1 matches start in a couple of hours: [TABLE=width: 228]

[TR] [TD]Match[/TD] [TD]Odds[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Exeter vs. Mansfield[/TD] [TD]3.37[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Wycombe vs. Wimbledon[/TD] [TD]3.17[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]York vs. Dag&Red[/TD] [TD]3.39[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Valencia vs. Levante[/TD] [TD]7.81[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]
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Re: Aways Actually, it was League 2, not 1, but nevermind; nice start, or just beginner's luck, we'll see... [TABLE=width: 300]

[TR] [TD]Match[/TD] [TD]Result[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Exeter vs. Mansfield[/TD] [TD]0-1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Wycombe vs. Wimbledon[/TD] [TD]0-3[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]York vs. Dag&Red[/TD] [TD]3-1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Valencia vs. Levante[/TD] [TD]2-0[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Picks: 4 Picks won: 2 P/L: +2.54 units Staked: 4 units
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Re: Aways Huh, it didn't go as expected... [TABLE=width: 228]

[TR] [TD]Catania vs. Bologna[/TD] [TD]2-0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Genoa vs. Sassuolo[/TD] [TD]2-0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Parma vs. Torino[/TD] [TD]3-1[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Picks: 7 Picks won: 2 P/L: -0.46 units Staked: 7 units
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Re: Aways

Huh, it didn't go as expected... [TABLE=width: 228] [TR] [TD]Catania vs. Bologna[/TD] [TD]2-0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Genoa vs. Sassuolo[/TD] [TD]2-0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Parma vs. Torino[/TD] [TD]3-1[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Picks: 7 Picks won: 2 P/L: -0.46 units Staked: 7 units
It took the guy who got the idea probably a few months too to get the hang of it. This system sounds like a very tough learning curve but with dedication I think there is a pot of gold on the end of it. I like it that you want to try it good luck!
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Re: Aways

It took the guy who got the idea probably a few months too to get the hang of it. This system sounds like a very tough learning curve but with dedication I think there is a pot of gold on the end of it. I like it that you want to try it good luck!
Thanks! :) So, on to a next challenge, this weekend picks: [TABLE=width: 358] [TR] [TD]#[/TD] [TD]Date[/TD] [TD]Match[/TD] [TD]Odds[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]10-Jan[/TD] [TD]Le Havre vs. Metz[/TD] [TD]4.23[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]9[/TD] [TD]10-Jan[/TD] [TD]Troyes vs. Clermont[/TD] [TD]5.32[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]10[/TD] [TD]11-Jan[/TD] [TD]Brighton vs. Birmingham[/TD] [TD]5.20[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]11[/TD] [TD]11-Jan[/TD] [TD]Watford vs. Reading[/TD] [TD]4.31[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]12[/TD] [TD]11-Jan[/TD] [TD]Colchester vs. Gilingham[/TD] [TD]3.17[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]13[/TD] [TD]11-Jan[/TD] [TD]Oldham vs. Stevenage[/TD] [TD]4.76[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]14[/TD] [TD]11-Jan[/TD] [TD]Wolves vs. Preston[/TD] [TD]4.11[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]15[/TD] [TD]11-Jan[/TD] [TD]Bristol Rvs vs. Exeter[/TD] [TD]3.51[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]16[/TD] [TD]11-Jan[/TD] [TD]Valenciennes vs. Bastia[/TD] [TD]4.49[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]17[/TD] [TD]11-Jan[/TD] [TD]Angers vs. Nancy[/TD] [TD]3.69[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]18[/TD] [TD]11-Jan[/TD] [TD]Real Madrid B vs. Murcia[/TD] [TD]4.50[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]19[/TD] [TD]12-Jan[/TD] [TD]Barcelona B vs. Hercules[/TD] [TD]3.41[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]20[/TD] [TD]12-Jan[/TD] [TD]Zaragoza vs. Alcorcon[/TD] [TD]3.92[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]21[/TD] [TD]13-Jan[/TD] [TD]Sampdoria vs. Udinese[/TD] [TD]3.17[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]22[/TD] [TD]13-Jan[/TD] [TD]Villareal vs. Sociedad[/TD] [TD]4.15[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]
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Re: Aways That was disastrous weekend - one single winning pick out of 15, and -50% ROI... can't get much worse, can it... :lol [TABLE=width: 279]

[TR] [TD]Match[/TD] [TD]Score[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Le Havre vs. Metz[/TD] [TD]2-2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Troyes vs. Clermont[/TD] [TD]2-2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Brighton vs. Birmingham[/TD] [TD]1-0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Watford vs. Reading[/TD] [TD]0-1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Colchester vs. Gilingham[/TD] [TD]3-0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Oldham vs. Stevenage[/TD] [TD]1-0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Wolves vs. Preston[/TD] [TD]2-0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bristol Rvs vs. Exeter[/TD] [TD]2-1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Valenciennes vs. Bastia[/TD] [TD]3-2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Angers vs. Nancy[/TD] [TD]1-1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Real Madrid B vs. Murcia[/TD] [TD]2-2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Barcelona B vs. Hercules[/TD] [TD]5-0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Zaragoza vs. Alcorcon[/TD] [TD]3-1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Sampdoria vs. Udinese[/TD] [TD]3-0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Villareal vs. Sociedad[/TD] [TD]5-1[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Picks: 22 Won: 3 P/L: -11.15 units Staked: 22 units ROI: -50.7% It's gonna be a long way to recovery, but I'll try...
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Re: Aways

the good thing is , one good match day and you should be there or there abouts GL
Indeed... but the question is will that day come at all! :p Anyway, thank you for following the thread! I see your thread has taken off successfully, hope you can maintain it! :ok
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Re: Aways So, onto this weekend's selections; there is again 15 fixtures where I will back the away side; and again, there is no Premier league matches that meet criteria, strange... [TABLE=width: 409]

[TR] [TD]#[/TD] [TD]Date[/TD] [TD]Match[/TD] [TD]Odds[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]23[/TD] [TD]17-Jan[/TD] [TD]Twente vs. Heracles[/TD] [TD]11.87[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]24[/TD] [TD]18-Jan[/TD] [TD]Birmingham vs. Yeovil[/TD] [TD]5.03[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]25[/TD] [TD]18-Jan[/TD] [TD]Derby vs. Brighton[/TD] [TD]3.39[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]26[/TD] [TD]18-Jan[/TD] [TD]Reading vs. Bolton[/TD] [TD]3.31[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]27[/TD] [TD]18-Jan[/TD] [TD]Carlisle vs. Colchester[/TD] [TD]3.42[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]28[/TD] [TD]18-Jan[/TD] [TD]Preston vs. Coventry[/TD] [TD]3.54[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]29[/TD] [TD]18-Jan[/TD] [TD]Sheff. Utd. vs. Bradford[/TD] [TD]4.36[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]30[/TD] [TD]18-Jan[/TD] [TD]Exeter vs. Morecambe[/TD] [TD]3.17[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]31[/TD] [TD]18-Jan[/TD] [TD]Portsmouth vs. Mansfield[/TD] [TD]3.60[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]32[/TD] [TD]18-Jan[/TD] [TD]Elche vs. Vallecano[/TD] [TD]3.30[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]33[/TD] [TD]18-Jan[/TD] [TD]Granada vs. Osasuna[/TD] [TD]4.34[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]34[/TD] [TD]18-Jan[/TD] [TD]Heerenven vs. Roda[/TD] [TD]5.29[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]35[/TD] [TD]19-Jan [/TD] [TD]Milan vs. Verona[/TD] [TD]7.85[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]36[/TD] [TD]19-Jan [/TD] [TD]Nijmegen vs. Den Haag[/TD] [TD]3.55[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]37[/TD] [TD]19-Jan [/TD] [TD]Cambuur vs. Go Ahead Eagles[/TD] [TD]3.96[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]
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Re: Aways Compared to the previous weekend, this one was very successfull: 2 wins out of 14 bets (one bet was void), so ROI improved from -51 to -45%! :lol [TABLE=width: 279]

[TR] [TD]Match[/TD] [TD]Score[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Twente vs. Heracles[/TD] [TD]3-1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Birmingham vs. Yeovil [/TD] [TD]0-2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Derby vs. Brighton[/TD] [TD]1-0 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Reading vs. Bolton[/TD] [TD]7-1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Carlisle vs. Colchester [/TD] [TD]2-4[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Preston vs. Coventry[/TD] [TD]1-1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Sheff. Utd. vs. Bradford [/TD] [TD]2-2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Exeter vs. Morecambe [/TD] [TD]Void[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Portsmouth vs. Mansfield[/TD] [TD]1-1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Elche vs. Vallecano[/TD] [TD]2-0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Granada vs. Osasuna[/TD] [TD]0-0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Heerenven vs. Roda[/TD] [TD]2-2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Milan vs. Verona[/TD] [TD]1-0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Nijmegen vs. Den Haag[/TD] [TD]3-1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Cambuur vs. Go Ahead Eagles[/TD] [TD]2-0[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Picks: 37 Won: 5 P/L: -16.70 units Staked: 37 units ROI: -45.1%
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Re: Aways OK, let's roll on, 13 selections for this weekend. Pinnacle has not published odds for two Germany 3 matches yet, but they certainly fall within criteria, so I will update when they're available. [TABLE=width: 409]

[TR] [TD]#[/TD] [TD]Date[/TD] [TD]Match[/TD] [TD]Odds[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]38[/TD] [TD]24-Jan[/TD] [TD]Heracles vs. Waalwijk[/TD] [TD]5.11[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]39[/TD] [TD]25-Jan[/TD] [TD]Ipswich vs. Reading[/TD] [TD]3.57[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]40[/TD] [TD]25-Jan[/TD] [TD]Rotherham vs. Crawley[/TD] [TD]3.97[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]41[/TD] [TD]25-Jan[/TD] [TD]Tranmere vs. Crewe[/TD] [TD]2.99[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]42[/TD] [TD]25-Jan[/TD] [TD]Wimbledon vs. Exeter[/TD] [TD]3.44[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]43[/TD] [TD]25-Jan[/TD] [TD]Mansfield vs. Wycombe[/TD] [TD]3.29[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]44[/TD] [TD]25-Jan[/TD] [TD]Stuttgart vs. Mainz[/TD] [TD]3.64[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]45[/TD] [TD]25-Jan[/TD] [TD]Unterhaching vs. Dortmund II[/TD] [TD]?[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]46[/TD] [TD]25-Jan[/TD] [TD]Osnabruck vs. Darmstadt[/TD] [TD]?[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]47[/TD] [TD]25-Jan[/TD] [TD]NAC Breda vs. Zwolle[/TD] [TD]3.00[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]48[/TD] [TD]25-Jan[/TD] [TD]Roda vs. Utrecht[/TD] [TD]3.77[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]49[/TD] [TD]26-Jan[/TD] [TD]Livorno vs. Sassuolo[/TD] [TD]3.33[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]50[/TD] [TD]28-Jan[/TD] [TD]Swansea vs. Fulham[/TD] [TD]5.71[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]
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Re: Aways Missing odds: [TABLE=width: 409]

[TR] [TD]#[/TD] [TD]Date[/TD] [TD]Match[/TD] [TD]Odds[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]45[/TD] [TD]25-Jan[/TD] [TD]Unterhaching vs. Dortmund II[/TD] [TD]3.17[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]46[/TD] [TD]25-Jan[/TD] [TD]Osnabruck vs. Darmstadt[/TD] [TD]3.31[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]
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Re: Aways Nice, seem I can maintain this strike rate, 2 out of 10 to 15 picks, and ROI about -50%... :lol [TABLE=width: 279]

[TR] [TD]Match[/TD] [TD]Score[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Heracles vs. Waalwijk[/TD] [TD]2-1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Ipswich vs. Reading[/TD] [TD]2-0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Rotherham vs. Crawley[/TD] [TD]2-2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Tranmere vs. Crewe[/TD] [TD]1-0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Wimbledon vs. Exeter[/TD] [TD]2-1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Mansfield vs. Wycombe[/TD] [TD]2-2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Stuttgart vs. Mainz[/TD] [TD]1-2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Unterhaching vs. Dortmund II[/TD] [TD]2-1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Osnabruck vs. Darmstadt[/TD] [TD]1-1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]NAC Breda vs. Zwolle[/TD] [TD]1-2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Roda vs. Utrecht[/TD] [TD]1-0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Livorno vs. Sassuolo[/TD] [TD]3-1[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Picks: 50 Won: 7 P/L: -23.06 units Staked: 50 units ROI: -46.1%
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Re: Aways This weekend selections; odds for Germany 3 missing again, will add them later. [TABLE=width: 409]

[TR] [TD]#[/TD] [TD]Date[/TD] [TD]Match[/TD] [TD]Odds[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]51[/TD] [TD]31-Jan[/TD] [TD]Granada vs. Celta[/TD] [TD]3.86[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]52[/TD] [TD]31-Jan[/TD] [TD]Feyenoord vs. Vitesse[/TD] [TD]4.20[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]53[/TD] [TD]1-Feb[/TD] [TD]Cardiff vs. Norwich[/TD] [TD]3.51[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]54[/TD] [TD]1-Feb[/TD] [TD]Bristol City vs. Carlisle[/TD] [TD]4.21[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]55[/TD] [TD]1-Feb[/TD] [TD]Crawley vs. Stevenage[/TD] [TD]4.40[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]56[/TD] [TD]1-Feb[/TD] [TD]Bury vs. Wycombe[/TD] [TD]3.63[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]57[/TD] [TD]1-Feb[/TD] [TD]Plymouth vs. Mansfield[/TD] [TD]4.20[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]58[/TD] [TD]1-Feb[/TD] [TD]Schalke vs. Wolfsburg[/TD] [TD]3.70[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]59[/TD] [TD]1-Feb[/TD] [TD]Hoffenheim vs. Hamburg[/TD] [TD]3.63[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]60[/TD] [TD]1-Feb[/TD] [TD]Darmstadt vs. Unterhaching[/TD] [TD]?[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]61[/TD] [TD]1-Feb[/TD] [TD]Hansa vs. Osnabrick[/TD] [TD]?[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]62[/TD] [TD]1-Feb[/TD] [TD]Munster vs. Wehen[/TD] [TD]?[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]63[/TD] [TD]1-Feb[/TD] [TD]Milan vs. Torino[/TD] [TD]6.16[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]64[/TD] [TD]1-Feb[/TD] [TD]Levante vs. Vallecano[/TD] [TD]3.70[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]65[/TD] [TD]1-Feb[/TD] [TD]Zwolle vs. Roda[/TD] [TD]4.87[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]66[/TD] [TD]1-Feb[/TD] [TD]Heracles vs. Breda[/TD] [TD]4.87[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]67[/TD] [TD]2-Feb[/TD] [TD]Watford vs. Brighton[/TD] [TD]3.25[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]68[/TD] [TD]2-Feb[/TD] [TD]Elche vs. Almeria[/TD] [TD]4.40[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]69[/TD] [TD]2-Feb[/TD] [TD]Nijmegen vs. Go Ahead Eagles[/TD] [TD]4.43[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]
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Re: Aways Update of the odds: [TABLE=width: 409]

[TR] [TD]#[/TD] [TD]Date[/TD] [TD]Match[/TD] [TD]Odds[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]60[/TD] [TD]1-Feb[/TD] [TD]Darmstadt vs. Unterhaching[/TD] [TD]4.86[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]61[/TD] [TD]1-Feb[/TD] [TD]Hansa vs. Osnabrick[/TD] [TD]3.49[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]62[/TD] [TD]1-Feb[/TD] [TD]Munster vs. Wehen[/TD] [TD]4.70[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE=width: 409] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]
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Re: Aways Another awful performance; this time, 3 wins, but it's still far from what I expected... :wall I checked the backtesting, and I didn't make a mistake, there was indeed some profit; there were some serious losing runs, too, but not this many. Selection method has not changed either, although I noticed increase of number of selections - in testing period, there was about 10 do 12 picks per weekend, now there is 15 to 20, don't know why, and could it have impacted the results... Anyway, time to back to the drawing board, methinks... :\ [TABLE=width: 279]

[TR] [TD]Match[/TD] [TD]Score[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Granada vs. Celta[/TD] [TD]1-2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Feyenoord vs. Vitesse[/TD] [TD]1-1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Cardiff vs. Norwich[/TD] [TD]2-1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bristol City vs. Carlisle[/TD] [TD]2-1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Crawley vs. Stevenage[/TD] [TD]Void[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bury vs. Wycombe[/TD] [TD]1-0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Plymouth vs. Mansfield[/TD] [TD]1-1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Schalke vs. Wolfsburg[/TD] [TD]2-1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Hoffenheim vs. Hamburg[/TD] [TD]3-0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Darmstadt vs. Unterhaching[/TD] [TD]3-1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Hansa vs. Osnabrick[/TD] [TD]1-1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Munster vs. Wehen[/TD] [TD]0-1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Milan vs. Torino[/TD] [TD]1-1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Levante vs. Vallecano[/TD] [TD]0-0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Zwolle vs. Roda[/TD] [TD]3-1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Heracles vs. Breda[/TD] [TD]1-2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Watford vs. Brighton[/TD] [TD]2-0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Elche vs. Almeria[/TD] [TD]1-0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Nijmegen vs. Go Ahead Eagles[/TD] [TD]1-1[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Picks: 69 Won: 10 Void: 2 Lost: 57 S/R: 17.4% Average odds: 4.20 Average winning odds: 3.97 Harmonic mean odds: 3.96 P/L: -27.63 units Staked: 69 units ROI: -40.0%
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