Ligue 1 Orange > January 8th - 12th

[meatman]

Re: Ligue 1 Orange > January 8th - 12th Lille – Reims Both teams are in pretty good condition ahead of this game. Lille miss fullback Franck Beria for 2 months due to a shoulder injury, which is a blow, but they have Djibril Sidibe who can come in and do a decent job as replacement. Upfront they still have Ryan Mendes out, but Les Dogues have no other issues to deal with. Reims have a sprinkling of injuries, but none of them are to important players. Both teams have had a full 7 days to prepare for this match as neither was in action midweek. Lille are renowned as having the best defence in France. They’ve only conceded 8 times this season, although it is worth noting that they failed to keep a clean sheet in all of their last 3 games prior to the international break. So maybe their defensive rigidity and air of invincibility is starting to fade? I personally don’t think it is because if you look in detail, 2 of the 4 goals they conceded in those games were pure freaks, and the other 2 were against PSG which is to be expected. I would be very surprised if Reims created many chances tonight and they will likely have to do something special to score, or rely on a set piece/penalty. For those who intended to bet on Lille, the good thing is that you can probably rely on them to keep a clean sheet, so they should only need one goal to win tonight. But its not necessarily a given that they will break through Reims either. The visitors are one of those annoying teams who can be pretty hard to beat. That’s especially been the case away from home this year where Hubert Fournier’s men have only lost once since the opening day of the season. They’ve been lucky in many fixtures but at this stage of the season they probably deserve some respect for grinding out results. The asian line on Lille for this game is -1 and this is the problem I have with them here. LOSC have won 12 games this season but 8 of them have been by a 1 goal margin (7 of them remarkably by the same exact 1-0 score). They are a side who are quite satisfied by only scoring once and then holding on by keeping a clean sheet. If they were facing a more attack minded team tonight then I’d be more inclined to back them on a -1 handicap, because they’d likely create more chances which in turn increases their opportunities for goals. But Reims will come here and park the bus, aim to keep it tight and even if they concede a goal probably won’t open up until the last 10-15 mins. My prediction is for Lille to win by a one goal margin again, I’m just not convinced that they can fully cover a -1 handicap line. The 0-0 scoreline is another lingering doubt in the back of my mind too, there’s definitely some risk of it IMO so I’ll stay away. Prediction: Lille 1-0 Reims Recommended bet: None

[MPLouis]

Re: Ligue 1 Orange > January 8th - 12th Lille v Reims According to the excellent 'simple soccer stats' site, overs corners are good value for this game with Bet365. If you average Lille home total match corners and Reims away total match corners, you come to 11.8. Bet 365 are offering odds of 1.95 on the 2-way corner market 'Asian Total Corners' which looks good value. (It's void if there are exactly 10 corners) Asian Total Corners Over 10 1.95 Bet 365

[NoFear]

Re: Ligue 1 Orange > January 8th - 12th well done meatman.

[saimon76]

Re: Ligue 1 Orange > January 8th - 12th I was sure and he also, he will come back all guns blazing!! Cmon meatman!!!!

[MPLouis]

Re: Ligue 1 Orange > January 8th - 12th

Lille v Reims According to the excellent 'simple soccer stats' site, overs corners are good value for this game with Bet365. If you average Lille home total match corners and Reims away total match corners, you come to 11.8. Bet 365 are offering odds of 1.95 on the 2-way corner market 'Asian Total Corners' which looks good value. (It's void if there are exactly 10 corners) Asian Total Corners Over 10 1.95 Bet 365

Total 7 corners (5-2) Bet lost

[meatman]

Re: Ligue 1 Orange > January 8th - 12th Cheers fellas, had a feeling I'd hit back today. Bangoura's 89th min goal for Nantes was absolutely massive for me. Sometimes just need that lucky break to get things back on track.

[meatman]

Re: Ligue 1 Orange > January 8th - 12th

Hi Meatman, Appreciate your effort and excellent write-ups. Not trying to be contrarian, just trying to add to the fantastic base that you create. Sometimes I am just not seeing what you are seeing ... Nantes v Lorient The form is a little odd here. Nantes having lost 3 of their last 4 at home while Lorient have won their last 3 away. Lorient are also finding some goal scoring away form scoring in 4 of 5 away games. SO Nantes to win is a big call, as it's a reversal of form. What is strange with these two teams is that neither has a drawn game (in 9 at home, or 10 away) The double chance odds are crap 1.35 . Not sure where to find advantage in 2 teams that don't draw games. Any suggestions on how to use this lack of draws ...? Evian v Marseille Marseille have been massively under 2.5 goals away from home. This season they are 7 of 10 under 2.5 goals and they are under 2.5 in 14 of their 17 away games. Defensively they have been pretty tough away, conceding a max of 2 goals just 3 times in 17 away games.

Hi Neil. Thanks for your kind words. I think there are many different ways to analyse a match. Some people prefer just to fully look at stats, some people have systems, some people like to go by feeling, others like to use their knowledge of a specific league and bet on something they think gives them an edge that stats don't suggest. Some people like to combine all of this sort of stuff together too. At the end of the day there is no right or wrong way. As long as you can be considered profitable then fair play is what I always say. For me personally, I do use stats in many instances, and also use them to back up a selections at times. However my personal belief is that a strong trend or statistic is only useful if there's a proper reason behind it. There's a saying that 'stats don't lie' and in quite a lot of cases they don't. For example Team X has won 8 out of 10 games at home this season' The likely reason for this is that they are simply a very good side, especially in at their own stadium. But then again on the other hand it's possible that they mega lucked out in most of their victories and were extremely fortunate. If that was the case then a statistic like this could be very misleading and false and it become virtually worthless, masking the truth. Regarding your comments on the Marseille match. Obviously a trend of 7/10 away matches ending under 2.5 is a strong one, but if it was me analysing then personally I'd ask is there a reason for this? Now obviously some of the main reasons for a statistic like this should be:- because the particular team either has a very good defence away from home from home &/or can't score away from home (likely due to negative tactics). If this is genuinely true and the particular side in question has played in a lot of legitimate tight matches away from home, then a statistic of 7/10 unders is absolutely correct and could give you an edge. But I would look at this game in a different way. I know Marseille aren't a negative side away from home this season. They have played fairly open football, AND their defence has looked vulnerable in a lot of matches. I could give a good explanation as to why some of their games ending under 2.5 unjustly finished this way. 14 Sept Toulouse 1-1 Marseille - This match was an early Saturday kick off and came following the international break. Loads of key players were out of steam and lacked freshness. Plus Toulouse have one of the best home defences in Ligue 1 (if you take away their freak 0-5 beating by Rennes) 21 Sept Bastia 0-0 Marseille - OM had to travel to Corsica less than 72 hours after that played an energy sapping CL match against Arsenal. Their offence was completely out of gas and Bastia were too overawed to take advantage, happy to take a point. 29th Sept Lorient 0-2 Marseille - In this game Lorient missed tons of chances, they just couldn't score. OM offensively were again gassed after just 3 days rest following a midweek match. 14th Oct Nice 1-0 Marseille - This match was played on a Friday night after another international break. Once again, OMs key players just didn't have anything in the tank and they struggled physically having no cohesion in attack. Plus, consider this. In 5 of their 7 away games that ended under 2.5, Marseille were facing teams who are top 10 ranked in home defence stats (3 of them are ranked joint best) So clearly this is a really really tough ask for them to score that many against some really good defences. IMO, Trends and stats are meaningless unless there's a good reason behind them. And in this instance I don't think the stats told anything near the truth. Anyway, I've droned on here! But you said that ''Sometimes I am just not seeing what you are seeing ...''' So I was just trying to explain to you some of my methods of thinking and analysing. So in the future maybe you might understand why you're 'seeing something that I'm not' Of course, It doesn't mean I'm right and you're wrong (or vice versa). Each to their own and everybody is very unique in their method of betting! Nice to have you contributing to the threads mate, look forward to seeing some more of your posts :ok