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England > Boxing Day > Skrill Premier Dec 26

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Thursday 26 December 2013 Home Draw Away BPP
maximize.gif Cambridge United v Braintree Town (12:00 GMT) 3/4 5/2 4 106.88 %
maximize.gif Dartford v Welling United (12:30 GMT) 23/10 13/5 11/10 105.70 %
maximize.gif Tamworth v Nuneaton Town (12:30 GMT) 15/8 12/5 6/4 104.19 %
maximize.gif Lincoln City v Grimsby Town (13:00 GMT) 17/10 5/2 8/5 104.07 %
maximize.gif Barnet v Luton Town (15:00 GMT) 7/4 5/2 29/20 105.75 %
maximize.gif Forest Green Rovers v Aldershot Town (15:00 GMT) 23/20 13/5 12/5 103.70 %
maximize.gif Gateshead v FC Halifax Town (15:00 GMT) 19/20 13/5 11/4 105.73 %
maximize.gif Kidderminster Harriers v Hereford United (15:00 GMT) 7/10 13/5 4 106.60 %
maximize.gif Macclesfield Town v Hyde FC (15:00 GMT) 8/15 10/3 6 103.33 %
maximize.gif Southport v Chester FC (15:00 GMT) 7/5 5/2 15/8 105.02 %
maximize.gif Woking v Salisbury City (15:00 GMT) 7/5 9/4 9/5 108.15 %
maximize.gif Wrexham v Alfreton Town (15:00 GMT) 6/5 5/2 14/5 100.34 %

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Re: England > Boxing Day > Skrill Premier Dec 26 An early take for me is Woking at Sky's 11/8. Woking are running into a bit of goalscoring form, while Salisbury are stalling after a bright start. Salisbury's away form hasn't been particularly good even when they were higher-flying; while they've had a difficult away fixture list so far I think there's enough in the price to go with Woking who have six win in seven, including notable scalps of Kidderminster and Nuneaton.

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Re: England > Boxing Day > Skrill Premier Dec 26 I will take Hyde in some sort of handicap. Macclesfield lost Conor Jennings which means more or less 50 % of their goals so far in the league, cant see who will score for them now ? Hyde in some sort of handicap like +1,25 seems like a good bet to me.

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Re: England > Boxing Day > Skrill Premier Dec 26 I think Gateshead had a good Price. Not so bad at home and last 2 Looses are away. Halifax with 2 in a row winning but one of them away against poor Dartford. They had an away record from 1-2-8.... Also Gateshead with some nice results last Games, also they looses but the teams are not so bad.

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Re: England > Boxing Day > Skrill Premier Dec 26 I posted this on my 'Louis Local Derbies' thread in Systems and Strategy ... Conference Premier Kidderminster v Hereford Thursday Dec 26th 15.00 The Conference seem to have derbies on Boxing Day with the return fixtures on New Years Day. I've been looking down the list for possible value. I think this game fits the bill. The two clubs are approximately 35 miles apart. Hereford's two league games at Kidderminster in the last 8 years were a win and a draw. Last season Hereford won the match 1-0. Hereford are in better form than Kidderminster, although Kidderminster's home form is generally very good. The two teams' recent shots on target stats are similar. Taking head to head and current form into account, I think Hereford could be good value here at odds of over 5.0. Paddy Power are currently offering attractive 2-way DNB odds (lower risk because if it's a draw your stake is refunded). Hereford DNB 4.0 Paddy Power

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Re: England > Boxing Day > Skrill Premier Dec 26

Lincoln are also struggling for players with at least five first teamers missing on Thursday.
If I've understood the noises coming out of the Lincoln camp correctly it isn't quite true that they are struggling for bodies even though they say they are -though it does support the view that they are running a bit scared and getting their excuses in first, and there is plenty of merit in Grimsby. Sean Newton is suspended and that's a big loss, but they'll cope without the injured Nick Wright fairly easily. Oddly enoough, with Danny Rowe and Connor Robinson ready to start they look stronger in an attacking sense than they did at Braintree and Chester.

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If I've understood the noises coming out of the Lincoln camp correctly it isn't quite true that they are struggling for bodies even though they say they are -though it does support the view that they are running a bit scared and getting their excuses in first' date=' and there is plenty of merit in Grimsby. Sean Newton is suspended and that's a big loss, but they'll cope without the injured Nick Wright fairly easily. Oddly enoough, with Danny Rowe and Connor Robinson ready to start they look stronger in an attacking sense than they did at Braintree and Chester.[/quote'] Just going on what I read although to be honest regardless of team news that price is too big. Sent from my GT-I8190N using PL Forum

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Re: England > Boxing Day > Skrill Premier Dec 26

Do anyone of you with more knowledge know why the odds on Cambridge are going up so much? For example -0.75 @ Pinnacle has gone up from 2.02 to 2.22.
I'd imagine it is one of a) Richard Money's comments after their defeat on Saturday about his squad being tucked up in bed ill before that game (his players often have something wrong with them when they've lost - they did here too...), b) doubts over whether Cambridge are as good without Appiah and c) Braintree didn't play on Saturday so will be slightly fresher going into the game.

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Re: England > Boxing Day > Skrill Premier Dec 26 A couple of spreads for me... Having landed nicely with Lincoln on the total goals on Saturday I'm doing the same again at 2.5 with Spreadex to buy. A month ago, with both sides in a generally conservative mood, that price would have been fair, but the attacking side of Lincoln's game is looking okay, with Ben Tomlinson and Alan Power restored to the team and a breezier approach on Saturday resulting in three goals scored. They are also looking more open at the back and the loss of Sean Newton is key to the defensive unit - it's just a guess but this may force Lincoln's hand in the way they approach the game: holding on for a 0-0 is unlikely with the personnel available. Grimsby are generally conservative themselves on their travels and look very solid in defensive areas, but they will take some confidence from their fine win over Kidderminster, and my thinking is that the game may have a more open feel than expected, and Grimsby's trusted 'we'll hold what we have' mentality may not be enough. Given that Newton is out for Lincoln, and I'm unsure whether the reshuffle of resources will work, I'm selling the time of the 2nd Grimsby goal at 78 with Spreadex - this has a limited downside and though Grimsby may be able to sit on a 1-0, I think Lincoln will have some say in this in an attacking sense. Two Grimsby goals may be necessary. A final novelty play on this game is to buy Grimsby at 3 on the 'score four or more and win' index with Sporting. Small downside, big upside - that's the kind of festive trade I like. A final play for now: a sell of Chester's 2nd goal time at 80 with Sporting Index. It's against initial common-sense thoughts, given that Gareth Seddon is banned for this one, but going with two up front on Saturday worked pretty well, and they were on top for long spells against Lincoln, even with ten men. They just about have the personnel to play two strikers without Seddon. One striker not taking part is Nathan Ellington, released by John Coleman at Southport. The presumption is that bodies will be coming in as he seeks to put in place a young and hungry squad. Salisbury, on a different day, might have filled their boots on Saturday, although the conditions were against that and Southport came home with an excellent point. To be fair they did work hard, but with a limited downside I like this trade.

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Re: England > Boxing Day > Skrill Premier Dec 26 4pts Braintree (+0.75AH) to beat Cambridge 1.75 Bet365 This is a big test of Cambridge’s credentials. The last time they lost a league game, at Southport, they bounced back in style but this time they face a tricky test after a defeat. Braintree don’t give a lot away and Cambridge aren’t always the most fluent of scorers. Given the absence of Kwesi Appiah and this bug which is supposedly going through the Cambridge camp if they do win this game they may only edge it but Braintree have enough of a record to suggest they could be the ones to bust Cambridge’s 100% home record. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/cambridge-vs-braintree-betting-braintree-have-what-it-takes-to-end-cambridge-s-perfect-home-record

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Re: England > Boxing Day > Skrill Premier Dec 26 Lincoln City - Grimsby League 1 England Sunday 26/12 14:00 Prediction: Grimbsy Odds: 2,45 Stake: 6/10 units Bookmaker: PinnacleSports Game review: Derby game between struggeling Lincoln City placed 18th in the table, and with only 1 win in the last 10 games. Up against Grimsby who is placed 3rd in the table and playing very well, Grimbsy has recoreded 5 wins in the last 6 games. Also h2h fanastic stats for Grimsby here, not losing to Lincoln in 12 games. But what makes this match even tougher for Lincoln is the fact that they are missing a handfull of players, there are five definite absentees and all of them would have been considered starters. Grimsby clearly the better side, fantastic h2h stats here in this derby, Lincoln missing players. It must be a good chance here for Grimsby! We have no problems giving Grimbsy 46% here (2,17) here.

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Re: England > Boxing Day > Skrill Premier Dec 26

I posted this on my 'Louis Local Derbies' thread in Systems and Strategy ... Conference Premier Kidderminster v Hereford Thursday Dec 26th 15.00 The Conference seem to have derbies on Boxing Day with the return fixtures on New Years Day. I've been looking down the list for possible value. I think this game fits the bill. The two clubs are approximately 35 miles apart. Hereford's two league games at Kidderminster in the last 8 years were a win and a draw. Last season Hereford won the match 1-0. Hereford are in better form than Kidderminster, although Kidderminster's home form is generally very good. The two teams' recent shots on target stats are similar. Taking head to head and current form into account, I think Hereford could be good value here at odds of over 5.0. Paddy Power are currently offering attractive 2-way DNB odds (lower risk because if it's a draw your stake is refunded). Hereford DNB 4.0 Paddy Power
Well, they were both top sides last season, and Hereford's 10-7-6 away mark spoke to such results (they each won at the other's home field on an early goal). Skrill-wide, this has been the worst season ever for high-odds away sides since I've been keeping track, and especially away sides priced above 5.0.

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Re: England > Boxing Day > Skrill Premier Dec 26 Three spread trades wrong, one right but still a decent profit. Chester didn't notch at all for a 10 point loss, Linc/Grimsby goals finished with a 0.5 point loss, and Grimsby didn't score four for a three point loss, but Grimsby's second game on 39 minutes for a 39 point profit - overall a good session. Great calls by addpea and Boggen on Grimsby, and a superb shout by ATT on Alfreton.

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Re: England > Boxing Day > Skrill Premier Dec 26

I think Gateshead had a good Price. Not so bad at home and last 2 Looses are away. Halifax with 2 in a row winning but one of them away against poor Dartford. They had an away record from 1-2-8.... Also Gateshead with some nice results last Games' date=' also they looses but the teams are not so bad.[/quote'] Only 1:1 :(

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Re: England > Boxing Day > Skrill Premier Dec 26

I posted this on my 'Louis Local Derbies' thread in Systems and Strategy ... Conference Premier Kidderminster v Hereford Thursday Dec 26th 15.00 The Conference seem to have derbies on Boxing Day with the return fixtures on New Years Day. I've been looking down the list for possible value. I think this game fits the bill. The two clubs are approximately 35 miles apart. Hereford's two league games at Kidderminster in the last 8 years were a win and a draw. Last season Hereford won the match 1-0. Hereford are in better form than Kidderminster, although Kidderminster's home form is generally very good. The two teams' recent shots on target stats are similar. Taking head to head and current form into account, I think Hereford could be good value here at odds of over 5.0. Paddy Power are currently offering attractive 2-way DNB odds (lower risk because if it's a draw your stake is refunded). Hereford DNB 4.0 Paddy Power
Result: Kidderminster 2 Hereford 1 Bet lost

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Re: England > Boxing Day > Skrill Premier Dec 26

Well' date=' they were both top sides last season, and Hereford's 10-7-6 away mark spoke to such results (they each won at the other's home field on an early goal). Skrill-wide, this has been the worst season ever for high-odds away sides since I've been keeping track, and especially away sides priced above 5.0.[/quote'] Point taken, although there were a few high-ish odds away Conference winners on Boxing Day - Salisbury and Alfreton

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