Pre-Season - January 5

[Torque]

Re: Pre-Season - January 5 Aljaz Bedene to beat Stanislas Wawrinka This is a match where at first glance, the prices make very little sense. Wawrinka and Bedene played each other at this tournament last year, and Bedene won in straight sets. Granted Wawrinka went on to have a very good season whilst Bedene struggled to make an impact on the main tour, but even taking that into account Wawrinka is too short for me and is worth laying at 1.16. His elevated ranking and his good showing at the Australian Open last year make me wonder if he might fancy his chances at that tournament this year, and if that's where his focus lies then I think Bedene can take advantage and beat Wawrinka here.

[grumpyman]

Re: Pre-Season - January 5 Going to try and start posting my picks on here more often. Kvitova @1.70 Similar games but Kvitova more experience than Stephens. Kvitova starting to be a convincing favourite and Stephens is very poor as an underdog. Roger-Vas @1.70 I like the form of Roger-Vas coming into this one. Sela got a walkover last round and doesn't deserve to be in quarters.

[CzechPunter]

Re: Pre-Season - January 5 Welcome! Just don't forget to post the bookies next time around!

[patyi]

Re: Pre-Season - January 5

Klara Zakopalova - Patricia Mayr-Achleitner WTA Shenzhen Zakopalova -1.5 sets 2.27 (pinnacle) 6/10 Sabine Lisicki - Stefanie Voegele WTA Brisbane +1.5 sets Voegele 2.04 (pinnacle) 6/10 Fernando Verdasco - Victor Hanescu ATP Doha Verdasco -1.5 sets 1.67 (paddy power) 3/10

-0.9 unit Rafael Nadal - Peter Gojowczyk ATP Doha under 19.5 games 1.55 (unibet) 10/10 Rafael Nadal was good yesterday, in the first part of match he was a little bit better than his average, then he had some bad shots in the second set but from the middle of the set he was very good, he played with good deep, and hit some amazing defensive shots. Gulbis hit very good first serves and some amazing backhand and forehand and that performance wasn’t enough. Gojowczyk has weaker serve and less powerful shots, I think he will lose this match very easy.

[grumpyman]

Re: Pre-Season - January 5 Thanks Czech Punter. Prices were conservative betfair ones. I managed 1.75 and 1.80 on Kvitova and 1.80 on Rog-Vas. I will put up best price per oddschecker in future. Avoiding any picks on Granollers / Paire as it's a coin flip. Monfils seems short price so need to consider the cost-benefit position bit closer. Pospisil up against unknown quantity so avoid.

[Torque]

Re: Pre-Season - January 5 Peter Gojowczyk to beat Rafael Nadal @ 46.00 Betfair It's highly unlikely this will come in, but at the same time I'm sure many people felt like that when Nadal lined up against Darcis at Wimbledon last year. This is unknown territory for Gojowczyk, and so it's hard to know how he will respond, but it's possible that he will feel no pressure as he is expected to lose. That might free him up to play his game, and if Nadal gets complacent then maybe Gojowczyk might have a chance. Playing the handicaps could also be a good option, as although Nadal is normally quite ruthless against this type of opposition at the same time he might not want to extend himself too much with the Australian Open just around the corner.

[MisterBadham]

Re: Pre-Season - January 5 Feel like I've just been raped by Paire after that! 5-1 up in the 3rd set.

[grumpyman]

Re: Pre-Season - January 5 Next pick Monfils but place back @1.5-1.55 on betfair Monfils appears to be in really good form right now. Should have too many clean shots for Mayer. But Mayer is no mug so want a little bit better than the starting price or the juice ain't worth the squeeze.

[grumpyman]

Re: Pre-Season - January 5 Got matched at 1.55 - peaked around 1.60

[CzechPunter]

Re: Pre-Season - January 5 Back Ana Ivanovic (-2.5) to beat Venus Williams for a 4/10 stake at 2.00 with Bet365 Were it not for the awful H2H record, the stakes would be much higher. Basically, Venus Williams is not a top 20 player anymore, while Ivanovic definitely is. She is the better player all-round as of now, she is yet to drop a set this week, and she didn't have to stay on the court for that long yesterday either, so she should be fully prepared for this one. A great chance for her to start the season with a title - and I think she'll convert it. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/ivanovic-vs-williams-betting-ana-ivanovic-looks-set-to-capture-the-title-in-auckland Back Irina Begu to beat Julia Goerges for a 3/10 stake at 3.35 with Unibet Goerges has done nothing worth noting recently - and yet she is priced as a 1.30 favourite against a player that beat her last time out. It should be a good match, perhaps the highlight of the quallies - and I do fancy Begu to win this more often than once in three tries. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/begu-vs-goerges-betting-going-against-goerges-looks-like-the-logical-pick-in-the-qualifiers

[patyi]

Re: Pre-Season - January 5

Rafael Nadal - Peter Gojowczyk ATP Doha under 19.5 games 1.55 (unibet) 10/10

-1 unit Bethanie Mattek-Sands - Heather Watson WTA Sydney-qualification over 21.5 games 1.72 (bet365) 7/10 Bethanie Mattek-Sands is a very interesting person and a good player. She has a good first serve, powerful shots from both side, great variety and net skills. When she is on, she is amazing but has a problem with consistency. Heather Watson is more consistent but has weaker attacking game. I think it will be a long match with many up and downswing, Bethanie will catch the rhythm, hit great winners then will lose the momentum and will spray the errors. Silvia Soler-Espinosa - Andrea Hlavackova WTA Hobart-qualification over 22.5 games odds: 2 (bet365) 7/10 Andrea Hlavackova is a very attacking-minded player, hits hard every ball. She is a very good double player with good net skills. Her defensive game is very weak, so she has few success in WTA Tour. Silvia Soler-Espinosa has a weaker serve and a less powerful shots but she has a very good movement and can fight all day long. If Hlavackova is on, she easy outhit Soler-Espinosa but I think Silvia will fight hard and Hlavackova is very inconsisten she can start to spray the errors whenever. I think it will be a tight match, maybe thre setter. Roger Federer - Jeremy Chardy ATP Brisbane Federer -4.5 games 1.74 (pinnacle) 10/10 Roger Federer plays very good in Brisbane. He serves well and hits very confident and amazing forehands. When he is in good mood, the weaker opponents have no chance. Jeremy Chardy has very good serve and powerful forehand, but he always sprays errors, he rarely can keep the ball on court. His backhand is weak. Chardy played very tight matches in Brisbane against mediocre players, he isn’t in very good form. I think this match will be walk in the park for Federer.

[grumpyman]

Re: Pre-Season - January 5 Nishikori bt Hewitt 1.62 William Hill Good win today. Didn't think he'd get past Cilic so must be playing well. Real test for Hewitt and won't be up to it. Granollers bt Rog-Vas 1.80 Ladbrokes Great price. Think Ed is in some good form but this is too hard a challenge. Granollers experienced and confident after good win today. Ivanovic bt Venus 1.73 Coral Forget being romantic. Past victories featured a different Venus. Ivanovic is on point. Grab the price quick. Mattek-Sands bt Watson 1.70 William Hill Don't rate Watson and it's as simply as that. Watched Beth quite bit last year and she's superior player. Shvedova bt Hsieh 1.62 William Hill Good value based on Hsieh being poor Good luck

[Torque]

Re: Pre-Season - January 5 Jeremy Chardy to beat Roger Federer @ 12.00 >Betfair Given that Federer lost to players ranked lower than Chardy last season, I'm struggling to see why he is so heavily favoured here. He has had no problems so far in this tournament, beating both Nieminen and Matosevic easily, but I think Chardy has more potential than either of those players. He can be quite frustrating to watch, playing brilliantly one minute and poorly the next, but when he is on song there is no doubt he is a talent. He has had to scrap to get to this stage, but I actually think that is a good sign as that is an area of his game that is sometimes lacking. If he can hold his nerve, then I see no reason why he can't be competitive in this match.

[grumpyman]

Re: Pre-Season - January 5 Decent results from last night. Just Nishikori letting me down. Granollers now out to 2.10 - concerned he is injured so need to find that out and see whether lay that punt off for a tiny loss.

[grumpyman]

Re: Pre-Season - January 5 Left Marcel Gran punt to run - 2-2 in first set

[junesixth]

Re: Pre-Season - January 5 Monfils to beat Nadal @3.2 betfair, Doha final, hard court (2 units) LOSS. Nadal won 61 67 62 !! 6 So people are tipping Rosol & Gojowczyk to beat Nadal but not tipping Monfils?? This is the best chance against the clay king at a great price. Monfils already beat Nadal here in 2012. He looks solid. Score prediction: Monfils 67 64 63

[CzechPunter]

Re: Pre-Season - January 5 Back Henri Laaksonen to beat Andrey Golubev for a 3/10 stake at 2.48 with Pinnacle Laaksonen was my man in Chennai and I think that he will extend his decent quallies run in Sydney on Sunday. Andrey Golubev might have all the shots, but he is so up and down that he rarely deserves to be priced as such a decent favorite. The Swiss youngster is improving with every single match - and he certainly has what it takes to beat Golubev here. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/laaksonen-vs-golubev-betting-henri-laaksonen-can-prove-his-qualities-in-sydney Back Jan-Lennard Struff to beat Somdev Devvarman for a 3/10 stake at 1.83 with Pinnacle Somdev Devvarman seems to be struggling right now (he lost to an unknown player in Chennai and then had to fight hard against Niels Desein yesterday), so going against him looks like a good idea. Struff beat Kukushkin yesterday, after all, and it is virtually impossible to criticize him for losing against Gojowczyk back in Doha. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/struff-vs-devvarman-betting-jan-lennard-struff-a-worthy-favorite-against-the-struggling-indian

[Torque]

Re: Pre-Season - January 5 Lleyton Hewitt to beat Roger Federer For me, Hewitt deserves more respect than he is being shown by the prices here. Although his record against Federer doesn't make for good reading, a lot of those matches were played when Federer was at the top of his game. They haven't played each other for a couple of years now, but the last time they met in a final it was Hewitt who emerged victorious in Halle. The Australian also has home advantage in this match, and whilst that probably wont faze Federer it could help Hewitt. He is a player that has great fighting qualities and if he goes down in this match it won't be for want of trying, so I'm happy to lay Federer at 1.19.

[grumpyman]

Re: Pre-Season - January 5 Halep 1.3 and Hantuchova 1.55 on betfair Halep was on fire last year and will want to continue that form. Hantuchova always puts in a shift and can guarantee she will play to win - one of my favs.

[grumpyman]

Re: Pre-Season - January 5 Shocking start. Halep added to the bad list for next 4 weeks.

[qaz179]

Re: Pre-Season - January 5 @grumpyman halep game was a strange one. Halep quite discernably came to life when she was a set and 5-zero down. It was almost like she deliberately challenged herself to come back from a set and 5 love down. She was decent from 5 love so i woudnt rule her out.