Marshland Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Re: Big Bash League 2013/14 Scorchers v Hurricanes: SM Katich over 22.5 runs ( 5/6, Ladbrokes ) Firstly - happy new year to everyone on the PL cricket threads, hope 2014 is happy and prosperous for you :) Managed to catch a bit of the Big Bash over Christmas, and in the Scorchers matches I saw I thought Simon Katich looked in really decent touch. Seemed like he was able to score all round the ground, and makes a good accumulative foil for the heavy hitters like Shaun and Mitch Marsh at the other end as they keep the strike rate ticking along. In four innings so far in BBL3 he has made 10, 29, 36 and ( most recently ) 75 batting at opener or first drop. I did look at his stats from the Big Bash last year but I wasn't sure how comparable they were as he was batting lower down the order then. I do however remember him having a pretty good Friend's Life T20 last summer, and when I checked the records he was Lancashire's second-top scorer with 265 runs at 44.16 - the best average for the county in that comp. No doubt I've condemned him to a first ball duck by writing this, and I guess the danger with these types of bets is it just takes one good ball or a bit of mean reversion to make them lose pretty quickly. However, he looks in good form and I'll have a go on the skipper to have a good dig on his home pitch here and cover what seems a reasonable line. Best of luck all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeMMa Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Re: Big Bash League 2013/14 I'm back and ready for this.. Scorchers look too too strong and the bookies have hit back $1.78 I got em two mins ago. Katich, Marsh, Voges, Marsh opening four are class wheres Hobart dunk birt Paine lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danj2202 Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Scorchers v Hurricanes: SM Katich over 22.5 runs ( 5/6' date= Ladbrokes ) Firstly - happy new year to everyone on the PL cricket threads, hope 2014 is happy and prosperous for you :) Managed to catch a bit of the Big Bash over Christmas, and in the Scorchers matches I saw I thought Simon Katich looked in really decent touch. Seemed like he was able to score all round the ground, and makes a good accumulative foil for the heavy hitters like Shaun and Mitch Marsh at the other end as they keep the strike rate ticking along. In four innings so far in BBL3 he has made 10, 29, 36 and ( most recently ) 75 batting at opener or first drop. I did look at his stats from the Big Bash last year but I wasn't sure how comparable they were as he was batting lower down the order then. I do however remember him having a pretty good Friend's Life T20 last summer, and when I checked the records he was Lancashire's second-top scorer with 265 runs at 44.16 - the best average for the county in that comp. No doubt I've condemned him to a first ball duck by writing this, and I guess the danger with these types of bets is it just takes one good ball or a bit of mean reversion to make them lose pretty quickly. However, he looks in good form and I'll have a go on the skipper to have a good dig on his home pitch here and cover what seems a reasonable line. Best of luck all. No. It was far worse than a first ball duck! :( Sent from my GT-I9505 using Tapatalk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevshat Posted January 7, 2014 Author Share Posted January 7, 2014 Re: Big Bash League 2013/14 Sheesh Marshy that is criminally bad luck. Very unlucky mate :sad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevshat Posted January 7, 2014 Author Share Posted January 7, 2014 Re: Big Bash League 2013/14 Wednesday preview: 4pts Sydney Thunder to beat Brisbane Heat 5/4 Ladbrokes The Heat’s batting line up has been their success story in this competition over the last year or so and Joe Burns is a big part of that so him missing this game is a big thing. If Vettori doesn’t make it either the Heat’s bowling attack looks very exposed. Ajantha Mendis should bring something important to the party for the Thunder with the ball and if they can just find a bit of luck they have the all round talent to finally end this losing streak of theirs. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/sydney-thunder-vs-brisbane-heat-betting-sydney-can-finally-end-their-losing-streak-against-the-heat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marshland Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Re: Big Bash League 2013/14 No. It was far worse than a first ball duck! :( Sent from my GT-I9505 using Tapatalk Sheesh Marshy that is criminally bad luck. Very unlucky mate :sad. Thanks, guys. Crikey that was close, what a cruel business it can be sometimes. From what I read he basically ran himself out - derp !! In better news, it was great that Perth finished the job - congrats to those who were on that. :) The side that lined up today look decent, think they will miss Shaun Marsh and Coulter-Nile when they trot off for the one-dayers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeMMa Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Re: Big Bash League 2013/14 What a match that was... Heart was in mouth haha.. tonight brisbane heat heat piss easy.. thunder will not win a game all season Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevshat Posted January 8, 2014 Author Share Posted January 8, 2014 Re: Big Bash League 2013/14 Thursday preview: 4pts Over 36.5 boundaries 5/6 William Hill I think with home advantage and some of their players playing their last games before meeting up with Australia for the ODI series the Stars will probably win this game but they are too short to back. One thing which isn’t is the underpriced is the 36.5 boundaries line. With an ODI here in three days we’re probably going to be slightly to one side in this match so there should be a short boundary on one side. The boundaries have been in at the MCG this season and are more accessible than before. There were 42 in the first game here even though the Renegades only just made 130 so this total looks in range. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/melbourne-stars-vs-adelaide-strikers-betting-boundaries-at-the-mcg-are-in-range-for-two-top-batting-line-ups Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neilovan Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Re: Big Bash League 2013/14 I am not sure that the price is too short on the Stars. They have won all 4 games very easily. 9 wickets 7 wickets 77 Runs 76 runs. These are big winning margins in 20-20 games I will risk a couple of units on them winning here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neilovan Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Re: Big Bash League 2013/14 I'm not sure where I should be posting this. If you like cricket betting a pretty decent game is on later in the SA version of the bigbash. Its called the RAMSLAM . Game starts at 4pm UK time Northern Titans are playing the Cape Cobras. SA cricket has nothing on until the Aussies show up for a heartwarming :spank . Leave them to us because :notworthy Steyn, Philander, Morkel, Parnell will send them packing. This is a pretty big game The Titans look very thin to me. This is the squad announced for the game THE UNLIMITED TITANS (FROM) Henry Davids (Captain) Farhaan Behardien CJ de Villiers Francois du Plessis Heino Kuhn Ethy Mbhalati Albie Morkel Mangaliso Mosehle Rowan Richards Jacques Rudolph Roelof van der Merwe David Wiese While the Cobras have a powerhouse batting lineup Levi Smith Amla Duminy Ontong Kemp Robin Petersen Both bowling lineups are a little dicey, with no massive pace, but the Cobras batting should see them win it. Surprised they are not fav's and they are even money for the win. Cobra's won their first game, which was a triple header at newlands, Cape Town on Jan 5th Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neilovan Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Re: Big Bash League 2013/14 duckworth lewis kills the 1st batting team. Idiotic system Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevshat Posted January 9, 2014 Author Share Posted January 9, 2014 Re: Big Bash League 2013/14 Friday preview: 4pts Sydney Sixers to beat Perth Scorchers 7/10 Bwin Shaun Marsh and Nathan Coulter-Nile are two big players for the Scorchers to be without and it is hard to see them beating a quality side like the Sixers without them. Sydney are well balanced with the bat and the ball and if anything Steve Smith brings them something extra as he has good enthusiasm. The Sydney attack is hard for a full strength batting line up to get away let alone one missing some players so it is the Sixers for me here. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/sydney-sixers-vs-perth-scorchers-betting-the-sixers-can-take-advantage-of-perth-s-absentees Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marshland Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Re: Big Bash League 2013/14 Unlucky there, super over defeat always annoying. :( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mylo Xyloto Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Re: Big Bash League 2013/14 A double on Stars to win again and Thunder to lose again looks to be the easiest money of the weekend. Not really much to add, could go into the various ins and outs but their records speak for themselves and at 4/7 for each one, the best prices going. (Will probably add in Australia to beat England at 1/2 but that's for a different thread.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevshat Posted January 10, 2014 Author Share Posted January 10, 2014 Re: Big Bash League 2013/14 Saturday early game preview: 4pts Hobart vs Sydney Thunder - Under 34.5 boundaries 5/6 William Hill I don’t expect a classic here. Neither side are batting all that well and neither have much depth to their batting so boundaries should be few and far between. Both sides have shown they are competent with the ball and I expect that to be the case here but with misfiring batting line ups I would expect the run scoring to be at a minimum and low enough to ensure a 34.5 boundaries line isn’t threatened. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/hobart-hurricanes-vs-sydney-thunder-betting-boundaries-not-likely-to-be-threatened-much-in-hobart Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevshat Posted January 10, 2014 Author Share Posted January 10, 2014 Re: Big Bash League 2013/14 Saturday late game preview: 3pts B.Cutting's Performance Pts - 34&Over 5/6 Bet365 I can understand why the Stars are favourites for this match but I’d like to see them without their ODI stars before I can back them at short prices. One bet which catches my eye here though is Ben Cutting’s performance. His target is 34pts and that is a total he has achieved in four of the five games he has played in this tournament. We keep hearing Stuey Law saying they have him padded up to go up the order and here could be a time that happens. With that potential and his excellent bowling this total is well within reach here. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/brisbane-heat-vs-melbourne-stars-betting-ben-cutting-can-light-up-the-gabba-against-the-stars Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mylo Xyloto Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Re: Big Bash League 2013/14 Sydney Thunder to lose again tomorrow. I don't really have much to add other than a team who have lost 19 (I think?) in a row at 4/7 to lose again has to be snapped up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoFear Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Re: Big Bash League 2013/14 kev, what do u think about the price on Sydney Thunder. In IPL, I have always blindly taken prices which are that big cos I dont think any team in a 20-20 can be such a dog. However, I still cant understand how a team can lose 19 in a row! Must have been some kind of a world record. Maybe in big bash the teams are not as competitive (though i doubt it). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mylo Xyloto Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Re: Big Bash League 2013/14 kev' date=' what do u think about the price on Sydney Thunder. In IPL, I have always blindly taken prices which are that big cos I dont think any team in a 20-20 can be such a dog. However, I still cant understand how a team can lose 19 in a row! Must have been some kind of a world record. Maybe in big bash the teams are not as competitive (though i doubt it).[/quote'] You've answered your own question. They've lost 19 in a row, so 8/5 or whatever they are isn't big at all. I think people misjudge how short 20-20 games are. It's 120 balls each, it's not one over or a coin toss. There are still good teams and bad teams and prices of 4/7 or so on teams like Thunder losing or teams like Stars winning represent huge value when you consider how short the prices on teams with similar records in other sports usually are. Don't overthink it and end up betting on Thunder. You HAVE to take them to lose at the prices offered. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoFear Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Re: Big Bash League 2013/14 You've answered your own question. They've lost 19 in a row, so 8/5 or whatever they are isn't big at all. I think people misjudge how short 20-20 games are. It's 120 balls each, it's not one over or a coin toss. There are still good teams and bad teams and prices of 4/7 or so on teams like Thunder losing or teams like Stars winning represent huge value when you consider how short the prices on teams with similar records in other sports usually are. Don't overthink it and end up betting on Thunder. You HAVE to take them to lose at the prices offered. see if the team has 19 straight losses, then obv its a bit of a stupid punt taking them for 2.75. But I dont think there has been another team with that kind of a record. I have taken underdogs successfully a lot of times in 20-20. If a team had 5 straight loses, then it wouldnt worry me too much. I look at the players, and if both teams have decent players, then I would back the team available at 2.75 Take the case of sixers vs scorchers. Think everyone was on sixers but scorchers won. You do make a valid point that 20-20 might not be as much of a coin toss as many believe. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevshat Posted January 13, 2014 Author Share Posted January 13, 2014 Re: Big Bash League 2013/14 T20 isn't a coin toss but the margins for winning the match are so minute hence why short prices aren't going to be profitable over a sustained period of time. One big over here or there or a good over with the ball or a big innings etc etc has massive implications on the match. NoFear - The Thunder will win at some point. Personally I don't think it will be tomorrow but I'm not one of these 'you have to back their opponents because the Thunder have lost x many games' people. You have to take each game on its own merit. Had CA not released Finch and Pattinson then the Thunder would've had every chance. As it is with Finch and Pattinson playing the Renegades should have too much. I'm not interested at the price though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevshat Posted January 13, 2014 Author Share Posted January 13, 2014 Re: Big Bash League 2013/14 Tuesday preview: 4pts A.Finch Over 24.5 runs 5/6 Ladbrokes I expect the Renegades to win this match but having lost more than they’ve won so far 8/15 isn’t tempting me. They will be pleased to have their captain available and he’ll be pleased to be available. Aaron Finch’s form has been incredible in the last month or so. In this tournament he’s made 32, 15, 81, 50 and 84* and he comes into the game off the back of a ton in the ODI at the weekend. Although this Thunder bowling unit isn’t bad Finch must be seeing it like a beachball at the minute and can score more than 24.5 runs here. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/melbourne-renegades-vs-sydney-thunder-betting-aaron-finch-can-continue-his-good-run-at-etihad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrimReaper Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Re: Big Bash League 2013/14 Having Hussey over Finch @ 6/5 and Renegades can't take a wicket!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoFear Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Re: Big Bash League 2013/14 typical result. Of course, now that I am not on them, sydney thunder go and win comprehensively. still i think we made the right decision to avoid this match. I am just glad I didnt follow renegades at such a skinny price even though they were facing a team with 19 straight losses. Statistics eh! What gets me is that stat guys would say that even if Thunder do manage to win, Renegades will be in the game till the last few overs at least as they are such huge favs. But then they get trashed so comprehensively that really the odds should have been the other way round. So to me, although t20 is not a cointoss, luck has a 70% role to play in it. One edge goes for four and the batsman survives to hit a couple more boundaries and the match turns on its head. TBH I still dont understand how a team could lose 19 T20s in a row. If we make them underdogs and their opponents 1.70 favs for each game (1.70 because in earlier games they woul be priced close to evens as they wouldnt be on such a losing run), we get odds of 1.70^19 = 24,000 So 24,000 to one is something eh! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevshat Posted January 14, 2014 Author Share Posted January 14, 2014 Re: Big Bash League 2013/14 Wednesday preview: 4pts Sydney Sixers to beat Hobart Hurricanes 4/5 Ladbrokes I like the Sixers here. I’m not convinced by the Hobart Hurricanes. You could make an argument that the Sixers batting line up isn’t the strongest but they were without their main batsman in Michael Lumb last time out and still only lost on a super over. Xavier Doherty will be a big miss for the Hurricanes on this wicket and they themselves don’t have the longest batting line up and only one of their batsmen have over 100 runs in the tournament. The Sixers have enough with bat and ball to win this one. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/sydney-sixers-vs-hobart-hurricanes-betting-the-sixers-look-the-stronger-all-round-unit-in-this-one Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevshat Posted January 15, 2014 Author Share Posted January 15, 2014 Re: Big Bash League 2013/14 Thursday preview: 4pts Perth Scorchers to beat Adelaide Strikers 4/5 Coral Perth’s home record this season deserves plenty of respect and I think they can win this match too. Michael Klinger’s absence for the Strikers has to be felt. He’s one of the best batsmen in Australia and with Shakib out of the side too this batting has a flimsy look to it once you get through the top three. Perth have a star studded bowling attack, they know their conditions well and have enough in their batting to get the job done again here. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/perth-scorchers-vs-adelaide-strikers-betting-perth-can-seal-a-semi-final-spot-with-win-over-the-strikers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mylo Xyloto Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Re: Big Bash League 2013/14 Wednesday preview: 4pts Sydney Sixers to beat Hobart Hurricanes 4/5 Ladbrokes I like the Sixers here. I’m not convinced by the Hobart Hurricanes. You could make an argument that the Sixers batting line up isn’t the strongest but they were without their main batsman in Michael Lumb last time out and still only lost on a super over. Xavier Doherty will be a big miss for the Hurricanes on this wicket and they themselves don’t have the longest batting line up and only one of their batsmen have over 100 runs in the tournament. The Sixers have enough with bat and ball to win this one. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/sydney-sixers-vs-hobart-hurricanes-betting-the-sixers-look-the-stronger-all-round-unit-in-this-one Hurricanes have made a right old mess of that. They turned it into a comfortable chase and then fell apart for no reason whatsoever. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sm0k3rZ Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Re: Big Bash League 2013/14 masterclass by simmons! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevshat Posted January 17, 2014 Author Share Posted January 17, 2014 Re: Big Bash League 2013/14 Saturday previews: 4pts Brisbane Heat to beat Adelaide Strikers 11/10 Betfred We’re getting to the nitty gritty stage of this tournament now and I like the Brisbane Heat in this one. They know how to win when the pressure is on and I think they have one or two more big game players who can hold their nerve when the going gets tough. The Heat gave the Stars a good battle last time out and with reinforcements in for this match I’ll go with them at odds against. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/adelaide-strikers-vs-brisbane-heat-betting-defending-champions-can-move-into-the-top-4-in-adelaide 4pts Sydney Sixers to beat Melbourne Renegades 4/6 Stan James I like the Sixers here. The Renegades were pretty rotten last time out when Finch failed so without him I don’t expect them to be much better. Dwayne Bravo adds something to them but he’s not the player he was, certainly as a batsman which is where I think the Renegades will struggle. Sydney look a good all round side and with the incentive of securing a semi final spot with a win here I’ll take them. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/melbourne-renegades-vs-sydney-sixers-betting-sixers-can-seal-a-semi-final-spot-at-etihad-stadium Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevshat Posted January 20, 2014 Author Share Posted January 20, 2014 Re: Big Bash League 2013/14 Tuesday preview: 4pts L.Wright Over 23.5 runs 5/6 Ladbrokes You’d be a brave man to take the Hurricanes to win this match but the Stars are far too short for me. Instead I like the look of Luke Wright to score more than 23.5 runs. He has covered this total in four of his six matches so far including his last two and I think he’s in the sort of form to cause more mayhem here. He has 70 and 49 in his two matches on this ground so 24 isn’t beyond him. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/melbourne-stars-vs-hobart-hurricanes-betting-luke-wright-can-shine-at-the-mcg-once-again Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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