Soso986 Posted July 5, 2014 Share Posted July 5, 2014 Re: World Cup 2014 > Outright Betting Aren't the odds for Argentina too low (~3.5), considering that Angel Di Maria is, as far as I know, out of the tournament? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnny1 Posted July 6, 2014 Share Posted July 6, 2014 Re: World Cup 2014 > Outright Betting Rhodesia the only thing i can think of is that some sort of spy software has noticed that both bets have came from the same computer albeit different accounts.They probably think you could be a potential risk,falsely and unfairly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavieTips Posted July 6, 2014 Share Posted July 6, 2014 Re: World Cup 2014 > Outright Betting ello all, First time poster here. Firstly, i apologize for posting this in the wrong thread but i couldn't find an appropiate thread for this query. So, i have had a paddy power account for a couple of year's now, no problems. Won a few quid over the years but nothing amazing, probably doesn't even amount to a e1000, in total really. Last year i opened a Bet365 account and soon after discovered the season outright accum bet type. I never knew these existed and so i chanced one.. e20 on 12 teams, payed out e15000 there in may.. happy days.. Now, the new season is upon us already so i decided i'll chance another this year. This time on my PaddyPower account, E200 stake this time, 8 teams, pays E100,000, (was E104,674 but was limited to E100,000 shortly after, the guy from customer care said 'dont worry, your bet's still good' just something about their traders limit the bet or something) So, my mum decides she doesn't want to miss out this year if i pull it off again and asks me to open a Paddy Power account for her, uses her own debit card too. i do this off my laptop and do the exact same bet. she never gambles, never. I do all this yesterday, my bet and hers, on my own pp account and her pp account. No problem i thought, no big deal. did both bets, however, today on my account i noticed my pp account seems to have been limited now. The stakes i can place have been limited it seems to e12 or so, which is strange. My accum btw consists of 1. Man utd (top 4) 2.Barca o/r 3. derby county (Promotion) 4. Peterborough (Promotion) 5. Juve o/r 6. Aberdeen w/o celtic 7. G. Rangers o/r 8. Monaco (top 3 finish) The weird thing now with my account also is , if i try to bet on any three of aberdeen, derby or peterborough from that accum in either another accum or single bet, it reads 'max bet exceeded'?? but the other teams from the accum are fine for me to bet on if i wish?? All this is exactly the same with my mums account too. I will not now place any more bets with Paddy Power but could someone on here please shed some light on this for me anyway? I suppose i would really like to know that if these two accums do come off for mum and myself, will PP pay out? That would be sickening to think you've won 100k each only to find out different. Do they think im rocking multiple accounts or something? Sorry about the awful long post and prob in the wrong place too but this is really bugging me now Thank you Did you use the same internet connection? I'm pretty sure most bookmakers track IP addresses, so that would explain the limit on the other account too. Well done on the big win last season by the way :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mindfulness Posted July 8, 2014 Share Posted July 8, 2014 Re: World Cup 2014 > Outright Betting Winner: Brazil @ 3/1 (Betfair) > 5% BR Winner: Spain @ 5/1 (Betfair) > 5% BR I’m gonna be really boring here and go with two of the favorites. Brazil have home advantage which should be a big plus. They are a decent, if unspectacular unit and crucially Scolari is a strong manager at international level, bringing great tournament experience. I feel they are a more cohesive side at this moment compared to rivals Argentina whilst possessing more quality than their other South American rivals. I think the only teams that can realistically challenge them from Europe are Spain and Germany… Spain have done it all before and have a fantastic team at this level. They should be able to qualify from their group without too much trouble and my projections show a favorable progression through the knock out phases. Some will argue that Germany will be a huge threat (the two should meet at the semi final stage) but Germany face big problems at this years tournament. Joachim Low’s side face insane tropical conditions at the group stage while a growing injury list will surely affect their chances in the latter rounds of the competition. Despite being a great international side, circumstances are conspiring against Germany here which I believe will pave the way for a strong finish from Spain. Brazil to win the tourney @ 3/1 was definately not a value selection, just couldn't see past either of these 2 to win. Essentially I gambled on the tropical zone and lost, Germany have shown very little sign of fatgiue in the latter stages thus far and their level of performance against Brazil tonight was simply excellent. No excuses with regards to Brazil, even if they had Silva and Neymar they would have been in trouble imo, an underwhelming side. Del Bosque should have included an extra CF in his squad imo, their problems were ofcourse more widespread than just that but it did annoy me. Spain are still a great footballing nation and will bounce back at some point in the future I'm sure, just need to be less complacent and more adaptable - the game is always changing! yes, some teams play with 2 upfront - who'd have thunk it. So credit to those who are on Germany, think they should go on to win now unless the huge backlog of malaria and dengue fever finally kicks in. Good work from those who took the long shots with a view to laying off such as Chile and Colombia - both were very impressive at this years tourney. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 Re: World Cup 2014 > Outright Betting So credit to those who are on Germany' date=' think they should go on to win now[/quote'] Why should they go on to win? I think it's a mistake to think a team will win on the strength of one great result. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted July 9, 2014 Author Share Posted July 9, 2014 Re: World Cup 2014 > Outright Betting I disagree. I have been saying it all tournament that Brazil were due a hiding.. Hats off to Germany today, they were brilliant, but if you look at all of their first 5 goals, they all are horrific defending errors from Brazil.. How does a team let Muller have a volley in the 6 yard box right in front of the keeper? Germany ripped them open at will today and it wasn't down to their amazing football, it was mainly down to Brazil's shambolic team and structure. I would make Germany slight favourites for the World Cup now, but any team would have beat Brazil today, they are that bad. It is also worth noting it was Higuain that won the game for Argentina v the Belgians, not Messi. They haven't set the world alight but they keep getting the job done and they have kept two clean sheets on the trot. Argentina v Germany final for me and Argentina to win the final, todays Germany win was just one of those freak results, they are not THAT good, as we saw v Ghana, USA and Algeria. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qris Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 Re: World Cup 2014 > Outright Betting ello all, My accum btw consists of 1. Man utd (top 4) 2.Barca o/r 3. derby county (Promotion) 4. Peterborough (Promotion) 5. Juve o/r 6. Aberdeen w/o celtic 7. G. Rangers o/r 8. Monaco (top 3 finish) Dear Rhodesia, can you explain what do o/r and w/o mean? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mindfulness Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 Re: World Cup 2014 > Outright Betting Why should they go on to win? I think it's a mistake to think a team will win on the strength of one great result. I am not basing my view on the scoreline V Brazil. The Germans are the best unit of the 3 teams that remain imo, I felt they had a strong team at the start of the tournament but didn't back them because I thought they would be affected by conditions - I was wrong. Also agree with Yiddo that Netherlands should make tougher opponents for Germany than Argentina. The two sides have a fierce rivalry and the tactical acumen of van gaal could make things interesting but Netherlands will still be underdogs. Argentina like Brazil are very underwhelming at this years tourney and cannot be viewed as favourites to beat Germany if they meet in the final. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notoriouspunter Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 Re: World Cup 2014 > Outright Betting Germany is now the absolute favourite for the title. They constantly got better throughout the tourney. They have a very deep bench. The whole team works together. The coaching is very good and realistic. They put high emphasis on beeing content and humble after yesterdays freak result. Watch the interviews they are already focussed on the final. If anything this result will give huge confidence to germans and some of the opponents will have maybe some fear. And the result was not only cause of bad Brazil. Germany analyzed where the exact weaknesses of Brazil were and exploited them perfectly. The result was cause of the focus and determenation of Germany. Brazil crumbled cause of germany. Germany could rotate their squad somewhat throughout the tourney. They look very fit. And yesterday they could go for 60 minutes without much intensity. In this WC with high temperatures and intense games one day extra rest could make a difference. Arg and holland both had intense games up to now and not the same squad deepness. They will go on for another very intense game with one day less to recover. Van persie looked awfully tired. Messi doesnt look at his best all season and this WC too. Di maria and Aguero are not fit. There are still doubts about the individual defensive qualities of Arg and Holland. Both squads seem to miss deepeness and options. Holland totally depends on their trio upfront. No matter who germany faces they are the favourites. I think after beeing in every semi since 2002 including euro finals etc. they are due to win a tourney. And they have goalkeeper Neuer who is arguably one of the best goalies that ever played the game. I think odds should be more around 1,6 for germany to lift the WC. Todays game could end with extra time which would lower odds even more. I also think the atmosphere will turn now to germany to be cheered by the brazilians. You could see some episodes of that already yesterday. This could turn it into a "home" game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alexc Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 Re: World Cup 2014 > Outright Betting I'd agree with those that are backing Ze Germans. To discredit their victory yesterday in any way is ludicrous, that was one of the performances of WC history, maybe the performance. Brazil were bad, but Germany made them look bad. And this is coming from somebody that doesn't like the German team, can't stand morons like Neuer and Muller. Only blindly back stuff in extreme cases, and Germany will be one of them Sunday, regardless who they play. Argentina are a poor side, and they won't nick a 1-0 this time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted July 9, 2014 Author Share Posted July 9, 2014 Re: World Cup 2014 > Outright Betting I think ye are getting carried away with that German performance yesterday anyways, yes they were brilliant but what did they beat? If only winning a world cup final was so easy, different set of circumstances, Argentina or Holland will be a much tougher task for the Germans. I already said the Germans should rightly be the favourites, but ye are talking like it will be one way traffic which I guarantee you won't be the case. I'm not discrediting the German performance, but I had been saying how terrible Brazil were with Thiago and Neymar, and I actually told Staffy and Paul Ross (we are in Vegas) yesterday to get on Germany -3 and -4. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
owenclass Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 Re: World Cup 2014 > Outright Betting Winner and Top scorer doubles Germany and Muller 3/1 paddy power Top goalscorer Thomas Muller 5/2 paddy power Player of the tournament Thomas Muller 3/1 paddy power i think that Muller is at his best in the big occassions and the world cup final is the biggest you can get and he only needs one more goal and could get it against a average Argentina side Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JJG Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 Re: World Cup 2014 > Outright Betting Just to add, Didi Hamann knows German football inside out and when he says Germany are going to struggle, stand up and listen. This is an interesting article he wrote -> http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2088160-germanys-midfield-issues-mean-i-fear-they-will-struggle-at-the-world-cup Thank god we don't always believe or listen to ex players etc , been the best so far and now the chance to win it , I took both the finalists so can't lose now but would prefer Argentina on the return. Chile , Columbia and USA stand outs and very unlucky not to get further. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JJG Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 Re: World Cup 2014 > Outright Betting Winner and Top scorer doubles Germany and Muller 3/1 paddy power Top goalscorer Thomas Muller 5/2 paddy power Player of the tournament Thomas Muller 3/1 paddy power i think that Muller is at his best in the big occassions and the world cup final is the biggest you can get and he only needs one more goal and could get it against a average Argentina side I'd agree with most coupled with his important goals and work off the ball but James Rodriguez has been player of the tournament for me , outstanding every game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavieTips Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 Re: World Cup 2014 > Outright Betting Winner and Top scorer doubles Germany and Muller 3/1 paddy power Top goalscorer Thomas Muller 5/2 paddy power Player of the tournament Thomas Muller 3/1 paddy power i think that Muller is at his best in the big occassions and the world cup final is the biggest you can get and he only needs one more goal and could get it against a average Argentina side The player of the tournament bet is more wide open that I would have imagined. If you had told me before the start of the tournament that Argentina would get to the final, I would have had Messi as odds on to win this award, but despite him being pretty good so far and instrumental to Argentina's success, I think Argentina will need to go on and beat Germany for him to win the player of the tournament now. He's still odds against at 11/8. For me, the player that's emerged as a real possibility for player of the tournament is Toni Kroos. He's available at 20/1 with some bookies but was as big as 66/1 with Skybet immediately after the Germany v Brazil game, which was a ludicrously big price considering he was man of the match in that 7-1 drubbing. Muller still has a chance of winning it, but there are a couple of other players from Germany that could yet win it if they lift the World Cup, including Manuel Neuer, who looks a near certainty to also win the golden glove award. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alexc Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 Re: World Cup 2014 > Outright Betting Isn't Didi Hamann a recovering gambling addict? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
recklessrookie Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 Re: World Cup 2014 > Outright Betting Had £50 quid on a Nadal/Argentina double on betfair for a potential £750 profit. After Nadals win yesterday I could cash out at 80 quid profit. Does anyone else rate Argentinas chances as not as many as I would have thought have tipped them on here? To me on paper they have an incredible squad, used to the climate, no European team has ever won a World Cup in South America and so on ..... AHH to cashout or not, that is the question.. Germany look the better team but I just have a feeling Argentina will win the game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeyB Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 Re: World Cup 2014 > Outright Betting AHH to cashout or not, that is the question.. Germany look the better team but I just have a feeling Argentina will win the game. I'd be pretty cautious with that, personally I think Germany are probably going to get the win here. You could always lay Argentina either £50 (plus 5%) so that you can break even if it doesn't go your way. Or lay something like £150 on them, so if Argentina win you get £750-£390= £360, if Argentina lose you win £150-£50= £100, or make it so you win the same amount of profit either way (which would be around £200 either way) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timmy121 Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Re: World Cup 2014 > Outright Betting AHH to cashout or not, that is the question.. Germany look the better team but I just have a feeling Argentina will win the game. Have the same predicament having backed Argentina pre tournie, am going to lay off so I get my stake back plus a nice return should Argentina win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andrewn_ Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Re: World Cup 2014 > Outright Betting what are your guys thoughts on player of the tournament (golden ball)? likely candidates would be messi, rodriguez, muller or toni kroos but i think it will come to the final performance.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notoriouspunter Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Re: World Cup 2014 > Outright Betting what are your guys thoughts on player of the tournament (golden ball)? likely candidates would be messi, rodriguez, muller or toni kroos but i think it will come to the final performance.. Is the golden ball still decided before the 2nd half of the final? Messi wasnt that great in the K.O phase and half final. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danj2202 Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Re: World Cup 2014 > Outright Betting I believe they changed it after the zidane final and it is decided after the game. I remember having to wait for ages to find out if sneijder won last time only to be disappointed when it was forlan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salmonman Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Re: World Cup 2014 > Outright Betting I think Robben to win the golden ball at 16/1 is good value, he's been excellent every game except Argentina maybe, there's been 9 golden balls winners, 7 of them have played in the final and 2 have played in the 3rd place play-off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salmonman Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 Re: World Cup 2014 > Outright Betting No chance Messi was the best player of the tournament, James, Robben, Neuer were all better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fedar Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 Re: World Cup 2014 > Outright Betting Messi winning Golden Ball?!! Did I just stopped to understand the game well or there were actually at least several guys who performed better than him and had bigger impact?! What was actually his impact in knock-out phase, besides one assist to Di Maria?! I would say even if we consider only Argentine players, Mascherano had bigger impact on the team, at least in knock-out games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slizorn Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Re: World Cup 2014 > Outright Betting Player of the tournament - In the last 19 world cups, this bet has been won 12 times by a striker, 5 times by a midfielder, 1 by a defender and 1 by a goalkeeper. 16 of the last 19 winners have been part of a team that have made the finals of the world cup. Every one of the 19 winners have been part of a team that made it to the semi finals. The host nation has had a winner from their team only 6 out 19 times. Each of the last 10 winners had scored a minimum of 3 goals apart from the goalie who won it. So in essence I am looking for a striker/midfielder who will score a minimum of 3 goals and make the semis/finals at the very minimum. Going off the favourites for the World Cup (Brazil, Argentina, Germany, Spain, France, Belgium, Italy) and the favourites for this market (Neymar, Messi, Aguero, Ronaldo, Suarez, Iniesta, Di Maria, Hazard), I am instantly drawn to the likes of Di Maria, Neymar Messi, Aguero. The reason for this is the fact that they are all from either Argentina and Brazil and have a very good chance of making the semis at the very minimum. Argentina have a relatively easy group and are 1.25 favourites to top the group for a good reason. Against the likes of Nigeria and Iran especially they should be able to rack up the goals. Di Maria, Aguero and Messi are the star players from that team. Brazil have a slightly trickier group against the likes of Croatia and Mexico, but should still do enough to top their group. Whether they rack up the goals or not, is another question altogether and with the composition of the team that they have, I think that goals can come from anywhere and not solely from Neymar. Comparing the 4 players that I have short listed, I think one has to pick either Messi or Neymar at the short prices they are available at. And for me it has got to be Messi. Messi scored 28 goals in comparison to the 9 Neymar did at Barcelona this season. Aguero also scored 28 goals in an injury hit season for Man City. I am not going to take Di Maria on, only cos of his lack of goals (scored 8 goals this season for Real Madrid). There is one wildcard that I like the look of, and that is Yaya Toure. He scored 24 goals this season for Man City, and yes he might be a midfielder and in a much tougher group, but I think at these odds, it is worth a small gamble. 2.5pts Player of the tournament - Lionel Messi @ 9.00 StanJames 1pt Player of the tournament - Sergio Aguero @ 26.00 Bet365 0.5pt Player of the tournament - Yaya Toure @ 151.00 Betvictor Literally just found out that Messi won the Player of the tournament. How he did, god knows. But I was happy to find some extra cash in my account! +18.5pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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