Atlético de Madrid v FC Porto > Wednesday December 11th

[Aidymac]

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[TR=class: row1] [TD=class: firstColumn]Atlético de Madrid v FC Porto (19:45 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.45[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.12[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]102.23 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[HastGill1]

Re: Atlético de Madrid v FC Porto > Wednesday December 11th From UEFA.com

Group G FK Austria Wien (2) v FC Zenit (6) Club Atlético de Madrid (13) v FC Porto (5) • Atlético have won the group. • Zenit will qualify if they win – or if Porto do not gain victory due to the Russian side's head-to-head superiority. • Porto must win and hope Zenit do not. • Austria will finish fourth.

[Drac Blau]

Re: Atlético de Madrid v FC Porto > Wednesday December 11th At this point of the season everyone already knows that Atletico is one of the European soccer superpowers. The quality of their players, their excellent tactical organization and their competitiveness make them a serious candidate to reach the final stages of this competition. One could be lead to think that as Atletico is already qualified as first of the group they would face this match with less motivation or interest. However the recent away games against Zenit and Sant Andreu for the Spanish cup showed that even with a team plagued with non-regulars the intensity is always at top level without any kind of relaxation. Some rotations are expected due to injuries/suspensions and also because Simeone wants to keep his players fresh for the upcoming battles. Courtouis, Mario, Guilavogui and Rodriguez are injured; Juanfran is suspended , Tiago and Filipe Luis will rest while Villa, Godin and Arda should start from the bench. Probable lineup: Aranzubia – Manquillo, Alderweireld, Miranda, Insua – Gabi, Koke – Torres, Adrian, Raul Garcia – Diego Costa. Even if some important players are missing it seems to me a very strong team in order to keep the excellent run of 9 consecutive wins at home this season. Porto is coming from a balsamic victory over Braga at home last weekend (2:0). It was a limit situation after having won only one of the 6 previous official games with coach Fonseca being severely questioned by the fans. This year Porto hasn’t shown the solidness and killer instinct we were used to and this is the main reason why they arrive to this last fixture with very slim chances to advance into the next stage. The main difference in Porto’s tactical organization is the midfield where, after the loss of Moutinho, coach Fonseca decidedto invert the 1+2 midfield triangle into a 2+1 where the number 10 (normally Lucho) plays very close to striker Jackson Martinez in an attempt to create superiority in the penalty box. It looks good on paper but the reality is very different: this new disposition of players creates lots of spaces in between the sectors with the midfield duo (Fernando and Defour) very distant from the attacking line. Another issue is the lack of creative and pacey wingers which inevitably results in few crosses to the penalty box as neither Varela nor Josue have the ability to arrive to the final line. Against Braga we saw the same problems during the first half but Lucho got injured and Paulo Fonseca replaced him by Brazilian midfielder Carlos Eduardo changing the system by making him to play a few meters back which instantly improved the team’s performance. Unfortunately Carlos Eduardo is ineligible for this match while Lucho is doubtful so Herrera could play as number 10. Porto is relying lately in the top quality of striker Jackson and the excellent form of full-backs Danilo/Alex Sandro which are the ones capable of bringing some creativity down both flanks. Expected line-up: Helton – Danilo, Maicon, Mangala, Alex Sandro – Fernando, Defour,Lucho ( Herrera) – Josue, Jackson, Varela I believe that even with some rotations Atletico will prove too strong for a Porto who’s slowly rebuilding the team and still making experiences in trying to find the right mix. Recent H2H history in Calderon is favourable to Porto but I find both these teams to be way different than their predecessors with Atletico currently much stronger and Porto a shadow of previous seasons. Atletico Madrid (-0.25) AH 1.81@Sbobet

[cambroia]

Re: Atlético de Madrid v FC Porto > Wednesday December 11th Im from Portugal and Porto fan... Great preview...couldn´t agree more. However 10 years of betting stops me from risking money in games like these. In this kind of mathces i always ask myself: Will i be surprised with a victory of Porto? NO... So no bet for me on the 1X2. We had the example of Bayern and PSG today. Atletico is in the same spot..1st place achieved, no pressure, nothing to fight for... Beware, and good luck!

[Smurf]

Re: Atlético de Madrid v FC Porto > Wednesday December 11th Amazing write up Drac. Some very very good insight, very impressive.

[scouse joe]

Re: Atlético de Madrid v FC Porto > Wednesday December 11th Over 3.5 cards 8/13 bet365. Quite fancy this due to the importance of the tie and can see plenty of tackles and diving going on. Porto will be out to win and will do everything for this, and if things don't go well for them tonight I can see some frustrated Porto players lashing out.

[KavkaZ]

Re: Atlético de Madrid v FC Porto > Wednesday December 11th Porto remained one chance to get into the playoff round of the Champions League. For this team, Paulo Fonseca team need today to beat Atletico Madrid and calculate the loss of points russians in the match against Austria. Of course, the balance is not the best , but other options portuguese club simply does not exist. Atletico also has long guaranteed a part in the European Cup in the spring and now can safely focus on domestic championship matches. However , this does not mean that tonight spanish team will enter the field to play for fun. Conversely, Diego Simeone will likely provide an opportunity for young people to express themselves , and they will play with maximum diligence and concentration. Two weeks ago, Atletico played against Zenit. Also not the main structure , but in St. Petersburg, on a snowy and cold stadium Atletico looked better. However, that meeting ended in a draw , which allowed Zenit to climb to second place in the quartet. But Porto missed a big chance. Austria - the weakest of the four teams in Group G. Four rounds austrians scored just two points. One of the match against Zenit with very dubious refereeing , and the second in a duel with Porto two weeks ago. And now the fate of the second tour is no longer dependent on the portuguese team. Porto need to win - and then watch Zenit , because the gap between them in 1 point. Porto will attack and play purely to win - no other choice they have. Open , fast , fun game becomes. Goal in the first half would rather be early in the match. First - the standings. Porto to hope for something else , need to win. So sit in the defense and put the bus unlikely - have to go and score , otherwise Europa League. Of course , the game of Porto this season does not shine, but on the other hand - Diego Simeone is likely to rotate the composition , and the spanish media believe that the defense of Madrid will look like this: Mankuilo - Miranda - Alderveyld - Insua. Weakened defense of Madrid, Porto certainly be able to score , the more that the hosts relaxes lack of motivation and a desire to please the fans just put beautiful attacking game. Judging by the statements of the portuguese, their mood before the match pretty martial. Of course the game for Porto today will be very difficult. Although Atletico not motivated , but the game in St. Petersburg showed that just will not give up. Overall , this game seems a draw , and the result will largely depend on the progress of the parallel match in Vienna. In short , here I expect an open match, and both teams to score at 1.80 Bet365 should be an option. Also I suggest you put on that match will be shown in more than 4 yellow cards. Head to heads : 01.10.13 Porto - Atletico 2:2 (1:0) 08.12.09 Atletico - Porto 3:1 (2:0) 30.09.09 Porto - Atletico 0:2 (0:1) 11.03.09 Porto - Atletico 2:2 (1:0) 24.02.09 Atletico - Porto 2:2 (1:1) So, in 4 of the last 5 games in our total 4 card punched. And today we are waiting for the fight with an abundance of fouls and yellow cards because Porto only need to win today and hope that Austria take away points from St. Petersburg. Well, the same Atletico may well today put some 2nd choice players , giving play to those who rarely goes into the starting lineup , so the mood will be the players battle as has something to prove to coach Diego Simeone. Latest games Atletico : 30.11.13 Elche - Atletico 2:4 (1:2) 26.11.13 Zenit - Atletico 0:2 (0:1) 24.11.13 Atletico - Getafe 2:3 (2:3) 10.11.13 Villarreal - Atletico 3:4 (1:1) 06.11.13 Atletico - Austria 0:2 (0:0) Latest games Porto : 26.11.13 Porto - Austria 0:3 (0:0) 22.10.13 Porto - Zenit 3:3 (1:2) 01.10.13 Porto - Atletico 2:2 (1:0) 18.09.13 Austria - Porto 2:2 (1:1) 21.11.12 Porto - Dinamo Zagreb 3:2 (1:1) Look at the statistics. In 5 games UEFA Champions League Atletico Madrid got 8 yellow cards (an average of 1.60 per match) and Porto in 5 games 10 yellow card (exactly 2 per match). As you can see , the numbers are not so eloquent , but they are a little more exposed. Thus today's game will be the referee Deniz Aytekin from Germany , which is known for its peculiar temper and vision football. It is this judge who removed in the 1st half Witsel (Zenit) for a very questionable foul in the match of the 2nd round of the group stage of the Champions League against Austria in St. Petersburg. Generally , Aytekin in July 2011 under the flag of the UEFA refereed 15 matches , which showed 67 YC (average 4.47 per match) , and in 2013 4 matches refereed , which showed 19 yellow cards thats an average of 4.75 per match. Moreover , Aytekin during his career as a judge in the Champions League only 3 of 15 games showed less than 4 yellows. Put boldly today that today's match will be shown more than 4 yellow cards. Tip: Over 4 yellow cards (asian) at Bet365 priced 1.85 - with a direct red card counting as 2 YC (nice).