bawsak Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 Kansas City @ Buffalo KC (-3.5) to win 10/11 (Paddy Power) + (most other bookies) I don't believe KC is an all round good enough team to be Superbowl contenders yet but as I have discussed here previously this pass rush is awesome. They are not an 8-0 standard team, yet I see them going to 9-0 here. If Buffalo had a healthy squad I would put this as a 50/50 game because their front 7 on defence is the strength of their team and will give KCs offence problems. It's just I see KCs defence giving Buffalo's offence far more problems. Buffalo's offensive line are not playing great which is not what you want against this team. Add to that, at QB they will either have back up Thad Lewis who has not practised all week, or more likely the much criticised 3rd string Jeff Tuel. I think Houston, Hali & co will be licking their chops. RBs Jackson & Spiller have not fully practised this week either (Spiller returning from an ankle injury) so I think they may also have problems running the ball to take some heat off the QB. I don't see the Chiefs being particularly productive on offence in this game but I think they will have enough with good starting field position and possibly some turnovers provided by the defence. Smith at QB for KC will face some heat as well but he is a master at being patient, waiting for opportunities and managing the game. I think Buffalo needs to get the lead in this game. If they don't they will have to put the game in their QBs hands at some point and when that happens I can see carnage. I am not always confident backing KC on the road as I think Arrowhead can be a big advantage for them but for the reasons above I think they could actually win this by 10+ points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulcat14 Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 Re: NFL week 9 picks Atlanta @ Carolina : Pick - Atlanta +7.5 20/21 BV Kansas City @ Buffalo : Pick - Kansas City -3.5 20/21 BV New Orleans @ New York Jets : Pick - New Orleans -6.5 20/21 BV San Diego @ Washington : Pick - Washington +1.5 5/6 William Hill Indianapolis @ Houston : Pick - Indianapolis -2 20/21 BV Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcege Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 Re: NFL week 9 picks Browns - Ravens Coach Harbaugh has great ATS stats after the bye week and when he's facing with a division rival, with who he already played against. (He actually couldn't cover only against Steelers, in this situation, which is a very hot and intense match up, anyway.) I don't believe Jason Campbell can produce two consecutive solid outings, against the best pass rusher teams of the league. J.Flacco's biggest go-to-guy T.Smith will be neutralized by J.Haden, but J.Jones will be back, which will boost J.Flacco, for sure. Ravens are in a good spot and they can't afford to lose, I expect a defensive struggle ends with a slim Ravens victory. Ravens(-1) 5/10 @1.855 Rams - Titans Rams coming out of a really spiritual loss, whole team seemed devastated last week. They have a terrible QB to start and K.Clemens will be awful, once again. He had been awful in all of his starts, so far in his career, so I don't see any reason to trust him. Titans with J.Locker was a 3-1 team and I expect them to be sharp again, after a bye week, against one of the worst secondary defenses around the league. Titans' rush defense is a concern, but Z.Stacy had been off whole week, because of injuries, so I'm not perfectly sure about his conditioning, anyway. Rams is out of any realistic goal, whereas Titans need to win in order to keep the season alive. Titans(-2.5) 5/10 @1.862 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
-paddy- Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 Re: NFL week 9 picks Kansas City @ Buffalo KC (-3.5) to win 10/11 (Paddy Power) + (most other bookies) I took this bet to, Jeff Tuel is most likely to start for Bills, can't see how he can handle with Chiefs pass D. Chargers @ Redskins, over 51 @ 1.926 pinnacle High line but two very good offence versus bad D. Chargers pass D pretty awful. Rivers playing his best season ever will have easy day against Skins defence. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bawsak Posted November 3, 2013 Author Share Posted November 3, 2013 Re: NFL week 9 picks Kansas City @ Buffalo KC (-3.5) to win 10/11 (Paddy Power) + (most other bookies) I don't believe KC is an all round good enough team to be Superbowl contenders yet but as I have discussed here previously this pass rush is awesome. They are not an 8-0 standard team, yet I see them going to 9-0 here. If Buffalo had a healthy squad I would put this as a 50/50 game because their front 7 on defence is the strength of their team and will give KCs offence problems. It's just I see KCs defence giving Buffalo's offence far more problems. Buffalo's offensive line are not playing great which is not what you want against this team. Add to that, at QB they will either have back up Thad Lewis who has not practised all week, or more likely the much criticised 3rd string Jeff Tuel. I think Houston, Hali & co will be licking their chops. RBs Jackson & Spiller have not fully practised this week either (Spiller returning from an ankle injury) so I think they may also have problems running the ball to take some heat off the QB. I don't see the Chiefs being particularly productive on offence in this game but I think they will have enough with good starting field position and possibly some turnovers provided by the defence. Smith at QB for KC will face some heat as well but he is a master at being patient, waiting for opportunities and managing the game. I think Buffalo needs to get the lead in this game. If they don't they will have to put the game in their QBs hands at some point and when that happens I can see carnage. I am not always confident backing KC on the road as I think Arrowhead can be a big advantage for them but for the reasons above I think they could actually win this by 10+ points. One thing I got wrong was Buffalo killed KC on the ground. The young QB did well to up until the 3rd quarter - 3rd & goal on the 1 for Buffalo to go 17-3 up and Smith intercepts him and takes it 100 yards for 10-10. I think my bet loses if Buffalo scores here but I suppose that is why you take the bet because you know Chiefs defence can do this. Chiefs D then comes up with fumble return for the TD to make it 20-13 early in the 4th. This defence looks impressive and vulnerable at the same time. They will come up with sacks and turnovers because they gamble but they can give up the big play - Buffalo's TD was a 59yd pass and the 3rd & goal was off the back of a 61 yard run. I just wonder how this style of defence will stand up to to Peyton Manning in 2 weeks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bawsak Posted November 3, 2013 Author Share Posted November 3, 2013 Re: NFL week 9 picks I took this bet to, Jeff Tuel is most likely to start for Bills, can't see how he can handle with Chiefs pass D. Chargers @ Redskins, over 51 @ 1.926 pinnacle High line but two very good offence versus bad D. Chargers pass D pretty awful. Rivers playing his best season ever will have easy day against Skins defence. Good shout Paddy, OT counts for the points tally, right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
-paddy- Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 Re: NFL week 9 picks Depend of bookies, on pinnacle it counts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulcat14 Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 Re: NFL week 9 picks Atlanta @ Carolina : Pick - Atlanta +7.5 20/21 BV Lost Kansas City @ Buffalo : Pick - Kansas City -3.5 20/21 BV Won New Orleans @ New York Jets : Pick - New Orleans -6.5 20/21 BV Lost San Diego @ Washington : Pick - Washington +1.5 5/6 William Hill Won Indianapolis @ Houston : Pick - Indianapolis -2 20/21 BV Won Record Won 3/Lost 2 Chicago @ Green Bay : Pick - Chicago +10.5 20/23 bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulcat14 Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Re: NFL week 9 picks Record Won 3/Lost 2 Chicago @ Green Bay : Pick - Chicago +10.5 20/23 bet365 Won Record Won 4/Lost 2 +1.61 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperImps Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Well done on the tips good win on Chicago last night :) looking forward next week NFL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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