November 4 - November 11

[CzechPunter]

ATP World Tour Finals :ok

[superkobe]

Re: November 4 - November 10 Stanislas Wawrinka to beat Tomas Berdych @ 2.10 with bet365 This match is hard to point out. In these situations my way of thinking is that you have to back the one with the highest odds. Maybe I also picked it because for me it is a 52-55% match for Wawrinka. This year they met 3 times, earlier in this year Berdych won a Davis cup match, but then Wawrinka won semifinal in Madrid and 1/8 final in US Open. I actually didnt see the match with Djoko, maybe he tanked maybe not, but for me Wawrinka looks valuable. Also this will be his first appearance in London so I hope he is looking forward to show his best talents.

[CzechPunter]

Re: November 4 - November 10 Back Marrero/Verdasco to beat Granollers/Lopez for a 2/10 stake at 1.80 with Paddy Power The H2H record stands at 6-0 - and a closer look reveals that it stands at 12-1 in terms of sets. That should easily outweigh the experience factor that Granollers and Lopez have on their side, so these odds do indeed look worth taking to me here. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/marrero-verdasco-vs-granollers-lopez-betting-david-marrero-and-fernando-verdasco-can-start-their-london-campaign-with-a-victory Back Richard Gasquet to beat Juan Martin del Potro for a 2/10 stake at 4.55 with Pinnacle If Gasquet wants to strike this week, this is likely his only chance to do so - and I wouldn't have him above 4.00 here really. He should be the fresher guy of the two and, unless the occasion gets to him, he should be in with a fighting chance here, he really should. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/gasquet-vs-del-potro-betting-richard-gasquet-could-get-quite-a-few-chances-against-juan-martin-del-potro-on-monday

[homunculus]

Re: November 4 - November 10 Wawrinka - Berdych number of sets: 3 @2.2 local bookie (5/10) Incredible odds IMO. They know each other well and none of them is dominant enough to be able to finish the encounter in straights. They met 5 times since 2011 inclusive, and only once in this period the match finished in straights (Chennai 2011 Wawa won 6-4 6-1).

[homunculus]

Re: November 4 - November 10 Delpo -4,5 games > Gasquet @2,07 local bookie (2/10) Gasquet really has absolutely no weapons to trouble DelPotro. He can only avoid the spank under two cirsumstances 1) Delpo is fatigued. Last year DelPo tanked in Paris having had two full weeks of big tennis in the back. He then came to London and made it to the semis. This year he had a rest before Basel - which he has won - and the very next week he left Paris courts on Friday, so he's got two days off by now. Delpo always looks like he is going to collapse the very next minute, but I do not believe him. I think he should be physically OK. 2) Delpo is gonna be in bad mental state after the Saturday's robbery in Paris when they took his rosary blessed by Pope Francis among the other things. But on the other hand, he can be upset and decided to crush every Frenchman he meets :-) I hope for the latter. GL :hope

[rgx]

Re: November 4 - November 10

Delpo -4' date=5 games > Gasquet @2,07 local bookie (2/10) Gasquet really has absolutely no weapons to trouble DelPotro. He can only avoid the spank under two cirsumstances 1) Delpo is fatigued. Last year DelPo tanked in Paris having had two full weeks of big tennis in the back. He then came to London and made it to the semis. This year he had a rest before Basel - which he has won - and the very next week he left Paris courts on Friday, so he's got two days off by now. Delpo always looks like he is going to collapse the very next minute, but I do not believe him. I think he should be physically OK. 2) Delpo is gonna be in bad mental state after the Saturday's robbery in Paris when they took his rosary blessed by Pope Francis among the other things. But on the other hand, he can be upset and decided to crush every Frenchman he meets :-) I hope for the latter. GL :hope

i think it's 30% odds to win, but i bet same like you

[rgx]

Re: November 4 - November 10

i think it's 30% odds to win' date=' but i bet same like you[/quote'] im so maaaaaaaaad at this game.... sry for spam, i can't edit posts

[TheresNoLimit]

Re: November 4 - November 10 I went in large on 2-0 Del Potro. Bitterly disappointed at how that first set panned out. Perfectly reasonable bet, all three pundits in the Sky Sports studio tipped the same, no offence to Richard Gasquet at all but he shouldn't be taking a set here. Not happy.

[SRBI]

Re: November 4 - November 10 Nice call on that doubles match Czech. What do you think about Peya/Soares to take out Paes/Stepanek in the doubles fixture? Price is just above evens at my shop and I'm considering giving it a go. H2H is 1-1 with the win for Paes/Stepanek coming during an impressive run in the US Open (this after beating the Bryan brothers in the semis). I don't think the duo has played together since, while Peya/Soares should be better conditioned as they just played in Paris and areare coming off a finals loss to those same Bryan brothers.

[SRBI]

Re: November 4 - November 10 Also considering a chance on 2-0 Nadal over Ferrer which is priced at around 1.7. Ferrer should be pretty much spent after his recent run. I just think the man has got go run out of juice eventually and this may be that moment vs Nadal who pretty much handed Ferrer the semis match in Paris. Not sure what to make of the Joker/Fedex match-up...maybe overs? I'd like to think Fedex is going to give Nole a solid game but dont think he has enough to win.

[CzechPunter]

Re: November 4 - November 10

Nice call on that doubles match Czech. What do you think about Peya/Soares to take out Paes/Stepanek in the doubles fixture? Price is just above evens at my shop and I'm considering giving it a go. H2H is 1-1 with the win for Paes/Stepanek coming during an impressive run in the US Open (this after beating the Bryan brothers in the semis). I don't think the duo has played together since' date= while Peya/Soares should be better conditioned as they just played in Paris and areare coming off a finals loss to those same Bryan brothers.

I would probably want to stay away from that match, the odds seem to be about right to me. If pressed, I would go for Peya/Soares as well though.

[leo3]

Re: November 4 - November 10 Have to admitt i really tryed hard to find some bet so far in this tournament but finding some value bet so far was nearly impossible, speaking about singles, i'm not following doubles... Today also, lines are okay, as well as all other markets. Will wait and see but can't really see any bet in which we would have some edge over the bookies...

[TheresNoLimit]

Re: November 4 - November 10

Have to admitt i really tryed hard to find some bet so far in this tournament but finding some value bet so far was nearly impossible' date=' speaking about singles, i'm not following doubles... Today also, lines are okay, as well as all other markets. Will wait and see but can't really see any bet in which we would have some edge over the bookies...[/quote'] Ferrer's odds look long. I think all Nadal's efforts this season are catching up with him at last.

[homunculus]

Re: November 4 - November 10

Delpo -4' date=5 games > Gasquet @2,07 local bookie (2/10) LOSS

Yeah, there were chances. DelPo had 2 setpoints on return in the 2nd set at 5-2 40-15*. If he converted, this would have virtually secured the bet. Didn't come through, however. I can't win it all :-)

[homunculus]

Re: November 4 - November 10 Both favs today (Nadal-Ferrer, Djokovic-Federer) win @1,64 local bookie (8/10) Not big fan of 1,6ish chalk, but I occasionally bet it when feeling pretty confident. Regarding it from either side, I just can't see beyond Nadal and Djokovic. The court in London is definitely slower than in Paris, and this should give both Nadal and Djoker the advantage. Ferru should finally be tired, even more so after his choke-like performace in Paris final (served for the set twice and instead of winning it he was broken twice in a row both times). Federer can be competitive, but Nole is aiming at #1 position and can't afford to lose.

[CzechPunter]

Re: November 4 - November 10 Back Rafael Nadal (-4) to beat David Ferrer for a 2/10 stake at 2.05 with Pinnacle Can't see past Nadal here - health problems are probably the only thing that could stop him here. The surface is a bit slower than the one in Paris, so Ferrer won't get a lot from his attacking combinations - and tiredness should creep in once he falls behind. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/nadal-vs-ferrer-betting-an-easy-victory-should-be-on-the-cards-for-the-world-s-number-one

[TheresNoLimit]

Re: November 4 - November 10

Back Rafael Nadal (-4) to beat David Ferrer for a 2/10 stake at 2.05 with Pinnacle Can't see past Nadal here - health problems are probably the only thing that could stop him here. The surface is a bit slower than the one in Paris, so Ferrer won't get a lot from his attacking combinations - and tiredness should creep in once he falls behind. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/nadal-vs-ferrer-betting-an-easy-victory-should-be-on-the-cards-for-the-world-s-number-one

Is it true that Ferrer leads their hard court head-to-head by 4 wins to 3? If so, why do you feel so confident of going against that? Also, do you not feel Nadal's 'long-term' tiredness is going to be more of a problem than Ferrer's 'short-term' tiredness?

[CzechPunter]

Re: November 4 - November 10

Is it true that Ferrer leads their hard court head-to-head by 4 wins to 3? If so' date=' why do you feel so confident of going against that? Also, do you not feel Nadal's 'long-term' tiredness is going to be more of a problem than Ferrer's 'short-term' tiredness?[/quote'] No, short-term tiredness has always been a bigger problem in my eyes. The H2H record is as it is, that wouldn't bother me too much to be fair - but, if you fancy Ferrer, go for him.

[CzechPunter]

Re: November 4 - November 10 Back Roger Federer (+1.5 sets) to beat Novak Djokovic for a 2/10 stake at 2.00 with Paddy Power Djokovic should win this, of course, but I think that Federer will win a set here more often than not, so this price looks worth taking to me. He seems to have timed his form nicely for the end of the season, so I wouldn't be surprised by seeing him do really well this week. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/federer-vs-djokovic-betting-roger-federer-has-what-it-takes-to-trouble-novak-djokovic-for-the-second-straight-match Back Dodig/Melo to beat Bryan/Bryan for a 2/10 stake at 4.12 with Pinnacle The Bryans have never been able to play their best tennis in the ATP World Tour Finals for some reason, so anything above 4.00 should be taken here in my opinion (well, perhaps even above 3.50). Dodig/Melo have beaten then before, there is no pressure on their shoulders, and the slightly strange format of the game also favors upsets quite a bit. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/dodig-melo-vs-bryan-bryan-betting-ivan-dodig-and-marcelo-melo-can-surprise-the-bryan-brothers

[TheresNoLimit]

Re: November 4 - November 10

No' date=' short-term tiredness has always been a bigger problem in my eyes. The H2H record is as it is, that wouldn't bother me too much to be fair - but, if you fancy Ferrer, go for him.[/quote'] Hey, I trust your tennis opinion more than mine, I just wanted to hear your justifications for it. As in what's happened since Ferrer beat Nadal on Saturday to make Nadal a 2/9 favourite? A slower court? I don't think Ferrer's 2 sets on Sunday make too much difference to this game on Tuesday do they? If you believe the slower court now gives Nadal that much of an edge then I'm happy to trust your opinion and bet on it.

[SRBI]

Re: November 4 - November 10

I would probably want to stay away from that match' date=' the odds seem to be about right to me. If pressed, I would go for Peya/Soares as well though.[/quote'] Good call staying away. Peya/Soares lost in the third set, mainly due to mistakes from the Australian. I don't regret taking a chance on them at + money though...it was a close one. Might follow you on that Dodig/Melo tip, odds seem a bit off to me and would be a great combo killer for the bookies.

[CzechPunter]

Re: November 4 - November 10

Hey' date=' I trust your tennis opinion more than mine, I just wanted to hear your justifications for it. As in what's happened since Ferrer beat Nadal on Saturday to make Nadal a 2/9 favourite? A slower court? I don't think Ferrer's 2 sets on Sunday make too much difference to this game on Tuesday do they? If you believe the slower court now gives Nadal that much of an edge then I'm happy to trust your opinion and bet on it.[/quote'] Not sure what I could add apart from what I have already said in the preview. The court is slower, Nadal has been in London for a bit longer, there is more on the line for Nadal than for Ferrer, Nadal should also be much fresher.

[vlazar]

Re: November 4 - November 10 IMO rafa choked in Pariz because of hard final with Djokovic, and to have one extra day to prepare for London wich is one of rare tournaments that Rafa hasn't won yet, and he is so motivated here for sure. Also RAfa needs to win 2 matches in London to keep no.1. Ferrer in awful form in second part of year, so for me this is clar win for Rafa without any problems. GL!

[SRBI]

Re: November 4 - November 10

Also considering a chance on 2-0 Nadal over Ferrer which is priced at around 1.7. Ferrer should be pretty much spent after his recent run. I just think the man has got go run out of juice eventually and this may be that moment vs Nadal who pretty much handed Ferrer the semis match in Paris. Not sure what to make of the Joker/Fedex match-up...maybe overs? I'd like to think Fedex is going to give Nole a solid game but dont think he has enough to win.

Think we all cashed in with Nadal today. Thanks Rafa!

[TheresNoLimit]

Re: November 4 - November 10 What's this nonsense doubles format all about??? No deuces?!? I'm on the Bryan brothers as part of an accumulator but regretted it as soon as I started watching and realised the format. I'm all for researching bets but there's only so far you can take that - I didn't realise they would change the whole format of tennis. That's like turning the TV on to see they're playing without a net!

[superkobe]

Re: November 4 - November 10 Federer to take 1st set againt Djokovic @ 3.16 with local bookie IMO this is really good odds to take. First of all Djokovic has just played a final in Paris, where he had to gave a tough battle. Federer got out of there one day sooner. Watching some of his games in Paris you really have to admit the thing that Djoko starts his matches in slower pace which gave opportunities for young French player Herbert of 2 set points, after that Isner and Federer actually took their 1st sets againt Djoko and Ferrer had a great look to serve out the set in final. And after all of this, at the end of the day Federer is Federer been there numerous times and I think will have one last hit here in London. If he has a chance tonight of beating Djoko than its right from the beginning, being down a set will be no chance. So for me this bet from the evening match looks the most valauble.

[Lennox]

What's this nonsense doubles format all about??? No deuces?!? I'm on the Bryan brothers as part of an accumulator but regretted it as soon as I started watching and realised the format. I'm all for researching bets but there's only so far you can take that - I didn't realise they would change the whole format of tennis. That's like turning the TV on to see they're playing without a net!

That's how doubles works all year round, except for the slams.

[TheresNoLimit]

Re: November 4 - November 10 I'm so upset at what's just gone on. Is this a common format in doubles or has this come from nowhere? 4-0 up in the deciding (first to 10) tie-break and I should still have got out of jail but it's gone horribly wrong. All too often that bets are bringing me close to tears but this one I feel hard done by and not sure what else I could have done. I'd have liked more transparency from the betting company in advising about the strange format at the time when bets are placed.

[TheresNoLimit]

Re: November 4 - November 10

That's how doubles works all year round' date=' except for the slams.[/quote'] Is that how it's been at previous ATP Tour Finals?

[Lennox]

Is that how it's been at previous ATP Tour Finals?

Yeah, and all ATP tour events for last 4 years.