October 28 - November 3

[CzechPunter]

:hope

[four-leaf]

Re: October 28 - November 3 Grigor Dimitrov to win ATP BNP Paribas 95.38 Pinnacle The game's biggest stars are in action this week in Palais Omnisports de Paris-Bercy, with five former champions present. David Ferrer is looking to retain his title, having claimed his first ATP World Tour Masters 1000 crown here a year ago. The No. 3 seed, who halted the stunning run of Jerzy Janowicz in last year's final, is coming off consecutive final runs in Stockholm and Valencia. Fellow Spaniard Rafael Nadal is chasing history in Paris as he looks to become the first player to win six ATP World Tour Masters 1000 crowns in one year. Roger Federer finds himself in Novak Djokovic's half of the draw and has a potential rematch of the Swiss Indoors Basel final with Juan Martin del Potro in the quarter-finals. Federer needs one match victory to qualify for the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals for a 12th consecutive year. Stanislas Wawrinka and Richard Gasquet reside in the other remaining qualifying spots, with Jo-Wilfried Tsonga close on their heels. Milos Raonic needs to reach the final to have an outside chance at punching his ticket to London. Tommy Haas, Nicolas Almagro and Mikhail Youzhny also have faint hopes of qualifying if they win the title. Grigor has a hard task in the first round vs Michael Llodra. The lefty has been granted a wild card but he's in no form to dispose Grigor off. Dimitrov won the only full match they played in Orleans challenger three years ago in the semi-final. The poor form of Michael who is a Paris native will be cheered upon by the crowd but I don't think it's enough to stop Grigor. Up next after Michel for Grigor is Fabio Fognini who has a bye in to the second round. He lost to Fabio in Sydney in the beginning of the year on the outside hardcourt but he's made a turn around from that enough to take revenge against the italian and should show that the loss in the beginning of the year should not bother him on this indoor hardcourt. The main opponents is Juan-Martin Del Potro and Roger Federer ofcourse. Del Potro last year lost here in the second round and after his success in his last three tournaments I think he will have no motivations here just like last year. Roger is in form, but Grigor missed a lot of chances against him in Basel and I think he will be fully motivated to take revenge and also Roger does'nt have the right motivation coming in to this tournament this season since he is only one match win away from qualifying for London next week. A mutch bigger event to load up his guns for and that will be a decisive factor here also for Juan-Martin who already is qualified for next week. This might be a big chance for the Bulgarian talent. Last year saw some surprising results and one of the finalists was Jerzy Janowicz, who has started from the qualifications. This year I am could be another surprise, but not as big as Jerzy making the final last year. Dimitrov shined on indoors courts ,where his big serve gives him enough advantage so he can finish off points early. Grigor also does'nt have to headcase problems in longer rallies where he is very solid from the base line so he can stay in he points and eventually find his winners. As usual the topdogs in the competion has a questionable motivation for this last Masters and we might see some early exits by the top 4 players. Dimitrov is loved by the crowd thanks to attractive style of playing. I think with little more concentration and luck he could win this tournament. A minor stake to win this tournament is not so bad thinking I belive.

[four-leaf]

Re: October 28 - November 3 Betting on a likely treble in round one. Prices from Pinnacle parlays. Benoit Paire to beat Pierre-Hugues Herbert (2-0 sets) 1.84 In-form Paire to make Herbert come down to earth showing him how good tennis really is played. Ok! Credit to him for getting this far but it will end here in straight sets against Benoit who is really solid on indoor hardcourts that I saw on my own countrys swedish television livestream in Stockholm Open. Nicolas Mahut to beat Alexander Dolgopolov 1.96 And Mahut is playing quite good right now and he likes these courts to. Something Alexander is all anti playing on. Igor Sijsling to beat Marin Cilic (hcp -2) 1.96 And last but not least the hero of the draw goes to dutchman Igor who playing himself into this coming up against a rusty Cilic who's been banned for some time and just comes back in the last tournament. To little, to late for Marin. Their head-to-head stands at 1 win for Marin. Memphis indoor hardcourt, round two 2013 Marin Cilic 7-6(2), 3-6, 7-6(7) A heavily fought encounter in three sets over two hours. I recon Sijsling has a pretty good opportunity to get revenge here coming in from qualies more warmed up with match practise. For 3/10 stake at Pinnacle total price 7.07

[four-leaf]

Re: October 28 - November 3 Andreas Seppi to beat Philipp Kohlschreiber at 4/10 stake 2.25 Pinnacle Odds are dropping on this one and Andreas has a stable head-to-head record against Phillipp at 3-3 all 3 matches won on hardcourt and two indoors and Philipp also only won one match in this tournament before and always seems dissinterested to play. Thinking of January already mostly at this time of the year. Phillipp has never taken a set off Andreas from their two meetings on indoor hardcourts. Philipp seldom late in the season is not a good mix. He is a fragile favourite here. 2012 Eastbourne Great Britain Grass Quarters Winner Andreas Seppi 7-5, 2-1 (Phillipp retired) 2012 Rotterdam The Netherlands Hard R16 Winner Andreas Seppi 6-4, 6-2 2011 Doha Qatar Hard R32 Winner Philipp Kohlschreiber 6-2, 6-4 2010 Roland Garros France Clay R64 Winner Philipp Kohlschreiber 7-6(5), 6-3, 7-5 2009 ATP World Tour Masters 1000 Paris France Hard R64 Winner Andreas Seppi 6-3, 6-3 2009 US Open NY, U.S.A. Hard R128 (or translated to round one of the grand slam) Winner Philipp Kohlschreiber 6-0, 6-4, 6-4 Head-to-head source http://www.atpworldtour.com/Players/Head-To-Head.aspx?pId=SA93&oId=K435 Good enough record for me to back Seppi in this match!

[superkobe]

Re: October 28 - November 3 Really late pick, but back Mannarino to win Giraldo @ 1.83 with bet365 Mannarino played well last couple of tournaments, winning Almagro and Brands in Kualalumpur, he lost to Gabashvili in Moscow and Federer in Basel (both playing at home). Today against Giraldo, Mannarino also playing at home country town Paris, so quite dont understand why odds are even here.

[four-leaf]

Re: October 28 - November 3

Really late pick' date= but back Mannarino to win Giraldo @ 1.83 with bet365 Mannarino played well last couple of tournaments, winning Almagro and Brands in Kualalumpur, he lost to Gabashvili in Moscow and Federer in Basel (both playing at home). Today against Giraldo, Mannarino also playing at home country town Paris, so quite dont understand why odds are even here.

Adrian Mannarino is slight favourite on Pinnacle at 1.926 on moneyline to win the match. I think I'll throw in a double here at Seppi to beat Kohli 1.926 and your bet of Mannarino at 1.926 from the Pinny bookies slightly lower parlay price. Thank you! Total price 3.38 for a 3/10 stake @Pinnacle And a five-fold with all five bets at 21.00 for a 2/10 stake @bet365 Paire to win in straights 1.57 (odds have really been cut here) Seppi to beat Kohli 2.25 Sijsling -1.5 games 1.80 Mahut to beat Alexander Dolgopolov 1.80 tomorrow tuesday.

[superkobe]

Re: October 28 - November 3 Terrible 1st set by Mannarino 3-6, was down 1-5, but slowly finding his game, wont give away 2nd set.

[four-leaf]

Re: October 28 - November 3 No in-play posts in this thread. Just apointing you to the right thread for in-play talk.

[four-leaf]

Re: October 28 - November 3 Damn it! One double coupon I had on Seppi and Mannarino that I lose on now but it was a lower stake luckily. Going to go in on resonably heavy on Andreas Seppi now 5/10 stake on the italian 2.25 @Pinnacle to beat the german today. Edit: I was looking at the wrong match. The Giraldo winner by retirement was yesterday against Andujar. Sorry I'm so of in my head I thought I had lost on Mannarino.

[GazF1888]

Re: October 28 - November 3 Marin Cilic to beat Igor Sijsling @ 5/4 with Bwin: I feel the value lies with Cilic here. It's been 4 months since the Croatian last played and there's a worry he'll be rusty but he'll be highly motivated to mark his return with a victory in this one. He's a level above his Dutch opponent and won their only previous meeting in Memphis earlier in the year which was also on Indoor Hard court. He'll be looking to pick-up where he left off after an impressive showing at the AEGON Championships before pulling out of Wimbledon through injury. I expect a close tie with the superior player prevailing.

[four-leaf]

Re: October 28 - November 3

Marin Cilic to beat Igor Sijsling @ 5/4 with Bwin: I feel the value lies with Cilic here. It's been 4 months since the Croatian last played and there's a worry he'll be rusty but he'll be highly motivated to mark his return with a victory in this one. He's a level above his Dutch opponent and won their only previous meeting in Memphis earlier in the year which was also on Indoor Hard court. He'll be looking to pick-up where he left off after an impressive showing at the AEGON Championships before pulling out of Wimbledon through injury. I expect a close tie with the superior player prevailing.

Good one! I did'nt really belive it myself but Sijsling looked scared on the court. To mutch respect for the taller Cilic. He did'nt dare to go for shots. Looked hesitatingly when going for winners like smashing the the ball into the net in second set as if he did'nt know how to end the point when it looked so easy. To many options and the guy hesitates and smashes it into the net being broken at same time. Really no guts this Sijsling guy. Looked so small on the court like he was some junior player.

[SRBI]

Re: October 28 - November 3

Good one! I did'nt really belive it myself but Sijsling looked scared on the court. To mutch respect for the taller Cilic. He did'nt dare to go for shots. Looked hesitatingly when going for winners like smashing the the ball into the net in second set as if he did'nt know how to end the point when it looked so easy. To many options and the guy hesitates and smashes it into the net being broken at same time. Really no guts this Sijsling guy. Looked so small on the court like he was some junior player.

I watched the first set and thought Igor played pretty well actually. His serve was on point and he was attacking the net every time. Don't know what happened and why he decided to tank the 2nd. Cilic really just outplayed him in the final set as he was playing with more heart and ambition. It helps when you have the legend Goran Ivanisevic in your corner.

[SRBI]

Re: October 28 - November 3 Thinking about going on Benneteau -1.5 games vs Nishikori. Nishi not in prime fitness and Ben playing in front of home crowd.

[four-leaf]

Re: October 28 - November 3

Betting on a likely treble in round one. Prices from Pinnacle parlays. For 3/10 stake at Pinnacle total price 7.07

Andreas Seppi to beat Philipp Kohlschreiber at 4/10 stake 2.25 Pinnacle

Well this did'nt work out the way I planned it to do. I jumped on three booby traps today from Mannarino to Seppi. Both bets just as awful and I've only got my self to blame for it. No wins for me this day. Just a heavy downward spiral on my account and on my self esteem since it feels like I'm useless and can't find any bets going in. No treble win for me or double and certainly not on the five-fold since it went black from the first match. To bad I had everything mixed up and just a single on Seppi. I should be more careful with selecting correct bets from now on and not thinking about parlays. I know it's not the way to go but sometimes I get carried away when everything was working so well this weekend. I got a little bit to high self esteem I guess. Needed to come down to earth.

[four-leaf]

Re: October 28 - November 3 Where are you Czech?

[CzechPunter]

Re: October 28 - November 3 Can't see too much to be honest, so going with just two small bets on Tuesday. Back Michael Llodra to beat Grigor Dimitrov for a 2/10 stake at 2.70 with Pinnacle Dimitrov deserves to be the favorite against Llodra, but the Frenchman has always been able to shine in Paris and these odds look quite juicy in all fairness. The quick conditions should also suit Llodra a bit more, especially since fatigue might start to creep in for the Bulgarian. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/llodra-vs-dimitrov-betting-michael-llodra-could-prove-to-be-a-very-difficult-opponent-for-grigor-dimitrov Back Aleksandr Dolgopolov to beat Nicolas Mahut for a 2/10 stake at 1.94 with Pinnacle Mahut will feel comfortable and everything, but I just wouldn't want to back him around evens here. Aleksandr Dolgopolov does have his off-days, but he is still the much better player of the two and he has all the weapons that are required for beating Mahut, so I am more than happy to back him at these odds. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/dolgopolov-vs-mahut-betting-aleksandr-dolgopolov-looks-value-against-nicolas-mahut-in-paris

[four-leaf]

Re: October 28 - November 3 Marin Cilic to beat Juan-Martin Del Potro for a 3/10 stake at 3.790 @Pinnacle and 3.75 @Paddypower.com The price is going down on Cilic and the way he played yesterday was quite passionate. I just saw how focused he looked like and meaning some badass business in the tournament. Seems like he's really motivated to do good and get somewhere in this last tournament of the season. He looked really dangerous and it does'nt take more to bet on him then that and the fact that Juan-Martin is probably all fed up on playing and does'nt come to Paris with the biggest motivation after winning two straight tournaments. Yesterday I was'nt thinking in the right direction at all. This bet I'm writing with some better thinking. Should not have posted all that crap yesterday. This should not be so bad. After all the value is all on Cilic here.

[nickcook69]

Re: October 28 - November 3 Any thoughts on the Giraldo vs Janowicz match guys?

[NoOne]

Re: October 28 - November 3 M. Llodra - G. Dimitrov » Home (Match) @ 2.68 3/10 We saw last week how Llodra wanted to lose against Mathieu to arrive fit to this tournament. Born in Paris, this is probably one of his favorite tournaments, and he arrives here 100% to do his best. He defends the SF of last year. His game is very good for these tracks, his serve and volley is very effective in these fast conditions. Llodra is a very popular player in Paris and crowd will support him, this match will be played of course in Central Court. His rival will be Dimitrov, a player that because he seems like a Federer is always very overrated. He won his first title Stockholm 2 weeks ago but he's not a consistent player. We saw him last year losing here against Monaco. He doesn't have many experience and usually under preasure he doesn't give his best, so with the crowd against him will not be a easy match. These odds are too high considering these circunstamces so I see many value in Llodra's odds.

[four-leaf]

Re: October 28 - November 3

Marin Cilic to beat Juan-Martin Del Potro for a 3/10 stake at 3.790 @Pinnacle and 3.75 @Paddypower.com The price is going down on Cilic and the way he played yesterday was quite passionate.

Just noticed bet365 have 4.00 on Marin to win. Worth a shot. He's got all it takes to down an unmotivated Juan-Martin.

[four-leaf]

Re: October 28 - November 3

Any thoughts on the Giraldo vs Janowicz match guys?

I'm defenitely on Janowicz to win in straight sets. Edit: Janowicz -3.5 @2.10 Pinnacle is my final call here. Giraldo was woeful yesterday and have been for quite a long while. Just luck that his opponent Mannarino totally choked out of nowhere.

[nickcook69]

Re: October 28 - November 3 Thanks four-leaf. Fingers crossed on a convincing janowicz win!:hope

[CzechPunter]

Re: October 28 - November 3

M. Llodra - G. Dimitrov » Home (Match) @ 2.68 3/10 We saw last week how Llodra wanted to lose against Mathieu to arrive fit to this tournament. Born in Paris, this is probably one of his favorite tournaments, and he arrives here 100% to do his best. He defends the SF of last year. His game is very good for these tracks, his serve and volley is very effective in these fast conditions. Llodra is a very popular player in Paris and crowd will support him, this match will be played of course in Central Court. His rival will be Dimitrov, a player that because he seems like a Federer is always very overrated. He won his first title Stockholm 2 weeks ago but he's not a consistent player. We saw him last year losing here against Monaco. He doesn't have many experience and usually under preasure he doesn't give his best, so with the crowd against him will not be a easy match. These odds are too high considering these circunstamces so I see many value in Llodra's odds.

:welcome Please don't forget to post the bookie next time around!

[WinningTipster]

Re: October 28 - November 3 1 pick for the WTA SOFIA (TOURNAMENT OF CHAMPIONS) today: HALEP TO DEFEAT PAVLYUCHENKOVA@ 1.3 on pinnaclesports Halep was in such a good form for the last few months (lately winning the title in Moscow without losing a set) playing consistently and powerfully. She is my favorite for the whole tournament and for today's match.

[dory24]

Re: October 28 - November 3 Julia Elbaba to beat Rosalia Alda @ 1.65 (Marathon) A match between two wildcards in the ITF $50k event in New Braunfels tonight. Rosalia Alda has just two ITF main draw wins this season, both against players outside the top 1000 in the world. However, more pertinent is that she has only ever passed the second round of any ITF tournament once in her career and that was over two years ago. She has just 12 ITF main draw wins to her name and her ranking of 1178 is reflective of her ability. While Julia Elbaba's record of 9 career ITF main draw wins and 8 defeats is not that much better, it is worth noting that she has a number of factors in her favour. She won an ITF $10k title in New Orleans last year, beating several players well inside the top 1000, and she reached the semi-final of another $10k event in Evansville. However, the key factor for me is that she is clearly the better player based on their college records. Alda was never ranked higher than 87 in the US College rankings, while Elbaba is ranked as the ninth best player for the upcoming season. While Elbaba does not have a great deal of experience at ITF level, she should still be too good for Alda, who was a very average college player two years ago and has shown little sign of improving since then. At these odds, I am happy to back the 19-year old Elbaba...

[CzechPunter]

Re: October 28 - November 3 Back Marin Cilic to beat Juan Martin del Potro for a 2/10 stake at 4.05 with Pinnacle Only a few ranking points to defend here for Juan Martin del Potro, so the ATP World Tour Finals might already be on his mind really - and, if that assumption is correct, Cilic will have every chance to take him down on Wednesday. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/cilic-vs-del-potro-betting-marin-cilic-has-what-it-takes-to-upset-juan-martin-del-potro-in-paris Back Lukas Rosol to beat David Ferrer for a 2/10 stake at 6.05 with Pinnacle Ferrer might be the defending champion in Paris, but his chances are virtually non-existent this time around, so he might be there for the taking early on, especially after two tiring - and probably also a bit disappointing - runs in Stockholm and Valencia. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/rosol-vs-ferrer-betting-lukas-rosol-looks-value-against-the-defending-champion Back Feliciano Lopez to beat Stanislas Wawrinka for a 2/10 stake at 3.18 with Pinnacle The final step is often the hardest one and Wawrinka was far from his optimal form in Basel last week, so these odds look worth taking to me. Plenty of pressure on Wawrinka to perform here and it is usually hard to trust him in such situations. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/lopez-vs-wawrinka-betting-feliciano-lopez-to-put-stanislas-wawrinka-under-plenty-of-pressure-on-wednesday

[TheresNoLimit]

Re: October 28 - November 3 Tsonga. Oh dear :(

[tit@n]

Re: October 28 - November 3 what a loser... completely ruined my bet.

[junesixth]

Re: October 28 - November 3 Nadal v Granollers under 17.5 games @2.09 Pinnacle LOSS Nadal 75 75. Granollers served like a maniac Never seen Nadal underperformed vs a Spaniard, and he's well rested. Score prediction: Nadal 64 61

[SRBI]

Re: October 28 - November 3

Thinking about going on Benneteau -1.5 games vs Nishikori. Nishi not in prime fitness and Ben playing in front of home crowd.

Remind me to never underestimate the Jap, no matter the circumstance. His performance vs. Tsonga yesterday was superb as well. I hope he makes it far in the tourney. Anyway, tough card today. Not seeing much besides Marin to maybe steal a set off Del Potro so 2-1 CS to Delpo or overs in that one seems like an optimal choice. I know some are pulling for the upset but even with fatigue on Delpo's end I do not see him losing to Marin at this stage. Also considering Haas to knock out his countryman Kohlschreiber. Haas's last ATP match was a loss to Kohly himself in Valencia and I can see him pulling the revenge card in this one (as are the books, pricing him at 1.67). Also a punt on Federer to cover -4 games vs Anderson. I can see Roger coming out hard and taking care of business early in this one.