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Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14


Jase82
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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 Well, maybe I still have one bet for today after some thinking: Benfica x Rio Ave: Benfica 1st Half More Goals @ 3.20 for a 0.35 stake (bet365) This is quite risky but I do feel it has a higher chance of happening. This is a crucial match for Benfica. With 4 points ahead of Sporting, but one game less, a win today makes them virtual champions, with the need of only 2 more wins to confirm the championship. It is true that Rio Ave is one of the best performing away teams. That's due to their playing style, actually. They are a team that is employed to work on the counter and to exploit defensive errors from the opponent. While playing at home, they try to play possession football and the counter-attacking routines work against them. While playing away, they know what they are doing, and have cause a lot of trouble to great offensive teams like Sporting (1-1 draw) and Estoril (0-1 win). They rarely concede away against lower-tier opponent as well. Benfica has only one way of approaching this game: scoring first, and fast. Rio Ave gets better and better while we approach the 90' mark, and rarely concede when they are ahead in the scoreline. Although even if they score first, Benfica will always score because they always score at home. Benfica needs to neutralize Rio Ave fast, and score in the 2 goals in the first 30 minutes and then just control the match flow. I'm pretty sure that's the gameplan for tonight. Just as a reminder, Benfica scored 11 goals in the last 5 games for the Championship...and 9 of them were in the first half. Big value on 3.20 for the most productive half as the first half for Benfica.

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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 Going with Over 2 today on Academica - Setubal...both teams safe from relegation, perfect match for a show off from coaches and players. Both coaches have "vanity" written on their foreheads...i can imagine a good game, with both teams attacking and looking to get a result... If this game was played on the 10th round or something...it would scream 0-0...but under these conditions...worth a shot. GL

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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 Some bets for tomorrow: Nacional x Maritimo: Over 2.5 @ 2.10 (bet365) for a 0.6 stake. The "Madeira Derby" is usually a big clash, except for one or another 0-0 outlier. Nacional is the 5th placed, and come from a harsh defeat in Setubal against Vitória FC (0-3). Result is quite misleading though, as they had the chances to score at least one or two. Maritimo comes from a very important win against Arouca at home, which still makes them dream with the possibility of achieving the Europa League objective, and they need to get to the 5th stop. 4 points separates Maritimo from Nacional, so they truly have to win it here. Nacional won't have important players Marçal and Candeias available, but Aly Ghazal (defensive midfielder) is back to shut up shop on Nacional's midfield. Plus, I think Zainadine and Diego Barcelos are good players and Nacional won't miss them that much. Marítimo has no big absence to add since last match. This game is crucial for both teams. Nacional need to secure the 5th place, while Maritimo really have to score, and actually win to keep on dreaming with Europa League. I can see it becoming a very intense match due to the circumstances and as it is a Madeira derby, with both teams playing on the offensive and trying to score goals. Both defenses are not reliable at all against tough pressure, so I'm pretty sure we could see some goals. BTTS @ 1.83 and there is no value there, so I'm going for the Over 2.5 @ 2.10 which looks at much better odds. Belenenses x Vitoria Guimaraes: Belenenses @ 2.60 (Bet365) for a 0.5 stake. Bigger stake than usual here. Belenenses secured a VERY important win last match, which made them jump out of the relegation at 16th. 15th secures the play-off spot against the 3rd place from Segunda Liga, which is not too bad, but Belenenses manager and players want more, and they want to avoid the play-off as well. Belenenses has 21 points, and Paços Ferreira (14th) have 23 points. As Paços play against Estoril away, Belenenses might get in front of Paços Ferreira with a win. We all know that last matchdays makes lower tier teams play their best games in overall. Belenenses, with their first win after 8 matches without winning, are surely well motivated and have all players available for this clash, including in-form Miguel Rosa and very talented players in midfield. After this match, Belenenses face two difficult tests to grab some points, against Sporting (h) and Estoril (a), which only leaves last match against Arouca (h) as the last escape in case of need. This just pushes the current match for the most important match of the season. Vitória Guimarães are completely lacking form, conceding more goals than they should, 7 games without a win, manager is in complete disbelief and a lot of important players missing (André André, Paulo Oliveira, Marco Matias, Joao Amorim and Pedro Correia). I think it will be tight, but in the end, I expect Belenenses to secure the most important win of the season. --- can't push a preview for Sporting - Gil Vicente for tomorrow, but Sporting to score in both halves @ 1.90 (bet365) for a 0.7 stake is the only thing that looks like value there. Gil Vicente is always awful and has a lot of trouble is defending against stronger teams. Decisive game for Sporting as if they win, they will be only 1 win away of securing the Champions League direct qualify for next season.

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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 Cant see valeu on the Nacional - Maritimo match. I think it will be a low scoring affair..both coaches trying to avoid defeat more than trying to win. On Belenenses - Guimarães im with Guimarães. Belenenses improved with the new coach, but they are still one of worst teams in the league and will get relegated imo...guimaraes with no winnings in the last 7 matches, only two points...two teams in different trends..normally i screw things up in occasions like this..so my experience tells me to go with the opposite..Guimarães playing with no stress, dont agree with Belenenses being favourite here. Guimaraes DNB at evens seems good to me. Rio Ave - Olhanense Skip it... Sporting - Gil Vicente...i think Sporting will trash Gil..be back later after taking a look at odds closely

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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 Can't agree with Belenenses. Their squad is so much better than the standings actually say. Big talent in midfield, too bad that they don't have good CBs and a striker that guarantees at least 10 goals, or else they would be middle-tier with no problems at all. I actually think there is a risk of Nacional - Maritimo in being a low scoring match if managers just come out scared. I think Nacional might just win it. 2.20 actually looks good for that but a derby is always a derby. Usually derbies between them are high-scoring likely and unpredictable, game in the 12th was a great one, unpredictable until the last minute. I think there is a lot at stake tomorrow and I just can't see it being a low scoring match, so there is a bit value on overs. not much, but there is. Would price it 1.90/1.95 tbh. I also feel Sporting will destroy Gil Vicente and I'm still looking at that -2 handicap... totally agree with Rio Ave - Olhanense.

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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 Great call on Belenense JumeSyn. Cant imagine another result other than a victory of Benfica...they will have 30.000 fans...arouca is giving up of the game to get a big revenue...just a shame that this kind of things still happen in Portugal...anyway...Benfica will have a walk in the park today...of course the odds are a joke, so you better skip it! As for Braga - Porto...another NO BET...no result will ever surprise me...didn´t even look at odds but my call would be Over 2.5...will follow it inplay. GL

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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 30 minutes before KO, got one here: Paços Ferreira x Nacional: Over 2.5 @ 2.00 (bet365) for a 0.5 stake; ALTERNATIVE BTTS @ 2.00 (bet365) after 5-10' minutes for a 0.5 stake. Paços Ferreira is 15th place with 23 points and has 3 big finals against Nacional, Rio Ave and Académica to avoid relegation. The 15th will make them fight for relegation against the 3rd placed team from 2nd division. Belenenses has 24 points, and Paços have advantage in case of draw, so even a draw will be enough, but it is better that they secure the win, and they will fight for it. On the other hand, if Nacional wins, they are assured for Europa League next season. We have two very motivated teams here, that will fight for every moment on the pitch, and I truly believe that we are about to see some goals here. Wouldn't be surprised on Overs 3.5 coming in as well. 30 minutes before KO, and Nacional have a VERY offensive formation IMO, with Candeias (usual winger) on the middle on 4-3-3, with possibility to quickly adopt a 4-2-4 if needed. I recomend you to do a 0.25 stake on O2.5 and then push the remaining on BTTS after 5 minutes or so.

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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 Any word on Porto tommorow.I am looking for a safe play for a double.Rio Ave are far from the relegation battle and i don't see where the motivation will come from.On the other side we have Porto who was defeated by Benfica in the final and would be fighting to stay in top3?

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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 FC Porto have no further objectives for the season. They still haven't got the 3rd place assured, as Estoril is right behind with 50 points. FC Porto has 55 points. A win tomorrow will do it, but they will be emotionally Bet for tomorrow, may have some updates during tomorrow: Vitória Setúbal x SC Braga: DNB Setubal @ 2.25 (bet365) for a 0.7 stake and Setubál @ 3.30 (bet365) for a 0.3 stake. Just splitting DNB 0.7 and MO 0.3 in case of draw, because I still think we might have a draw, but Setubal is the much better team at the moment. Setubal has been playing outstading football at home, specially, since Jose Couceiro took over. They are with 34 points, right behind SC Braga, and a win tomorrow will see them get to the 6th place. Vitoria Setubal will surely have the motivation to prove that they are the 6th best portuguese team atm, and I'm sure Jose Couceiro will motivate them enough to win tomorrow. He still advised that he isn't expecting a weakened Braga though. Braga, except for during 30 minutes against Porto, has been very unimpressive lately. Team is full of absences and players with big physical troubles lately. They lost the chance for direct Europa League qualification after losing against Rio Ave 2-0 in Vila do Conde. They can't get to Europa League via championship as well. A very unsuccessful season for them, based on recent national and continental achievements. Jorge Paixão should be dismissed and the end of the season, and there are rumours of some players that should be released in a near future. These players should be motivated to prove that Braga's president is wrong. But just like I said in the intro, Setubal is the much better team and should be 2-0 up in the first half if everything goes well and they start movitated enough and with Horta and Pedro Tiba up front. João Mário is completely in-form and is the team maestro, does a lot of assists and will play as well. Braga still have some players in doubt, and their defensive line is very leaky due to lack of team quality in the back. Setubal to win here looks a BIG value bet, and I would price them as favourites according to the circunstances. You simply have to back them as these prices. A crazy bet would be Setubal and BTTS: Yes @ 7.00. In case you do it, recommend a 0.15 stake on it.

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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 Back to the Portuguese League betting. Two bets for now. Nacional x Sporting: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 (Unibet) for a 0.75 stake Both Sporting and Nacional achieved outstanding results in terms of expectations. Nacional was expected to perform well and end mid-table, but actually achieved Europa League qualification, while Sporting wanted the 3rd place for CL play-off spot. Instead, Sporting eventually fought hard for the championship, losing to a much better Benfica at the end, but achieving the 2nd place for direct CL qualification is a big achievement for a team that's full of young talent and that surpassed a big financial crisis. However, Leonardo Jardim (Sporting coach) already advised that the team is not on vacations, and revealed that he wants the 3 points. He might do one or two changes, but I expect a good Sporting side, with no pressure at all. Nacional's manager said that still feels motivation within his team while they want to see themselves to other teams for the transfer market beginning. Nacional is a very hard team to beat, and I'm not sure that Sporting could manage to do it. But I can't see them losing as well, so a draw might seem okay. However, I'm not willing to go for that risk but I do believe that both teams will fight hard enough for the win. No pressure at all will help in free-flowing as well. Nacional usually score at home and have some great counter-attacking processes. Sporting plays a very effective football and will surely know how to dismantle Nacional's defensive line. I think Over 2.5 @ 1.85 has a touch of value, so I'm taking it. Arouca x Gil Vicente: Draw @ 3.10 (bet365) for a 0.35 stake This one is just about avoiding relegation. Both teams are with 28 points, way ahead of getting relegated. Still, they are still not safe. Paços de Ferreira winning both of their games while Arouca or Gil Vicente both losing them could see them miserably fail and end up in 15th place, which gives a play-off spot against the 3rd placed team in Second Division. Plus, if Arouca still draws this one and Paços wins both games, they have full disavantadge in direct confrontation (0-0 3-1 for Paços) if Gil Vicente eventually wins on sunday or draws on matchday 30. Then how would both teams save their seasons? That's right...a draw. With a draw, both teams would reach 29 points, making it impossible for Paços to save themselves, as with a 29 points tie, a mini-league between 3 teams is the tie-breaker. And considering a draw, Gil Vicente would have 7 points, Arouca 5, and Paços 4. I do think Arouca will have the edge here, but I wouldn't be surprised if both teams settled for a draw and avoid risking no more for the final matchday in one week. Arouca is actually needing some money as well as rumours also talk about financial problems there...so why not a draw??

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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 Nacional x Sporting bet failed. Have two more for tomorrow, based on squad call-ups of Maritimo. Attention, Maritimo B x Moreirense is from the Second League. Marítimo B x Moreirense: DNB Marítimo B @ 6.00 (bet365) for a 0.5 stake Not very used to betting in the second league, but such odds cannot be ignored. Maritimo B has 42 points, and is 21th placed. Atletico is the last placed with 40 points, and only the last placed will drop to the third division. Maritimo's manager Pedro Martins dropped 3 main players Artur, Danilo Dias and Nuno Rocha to the B team to help them stay in the second league. He told in the press conference that the Maritimo's project is much more important that the Maritimo final standing. With no Europe to fight for, ending up in 6th or 10th is equal. Moreirense is the first placed team, that's true, and they only need the draw to win the Championship, so I can see them relax a bit and Maritimo's B will surely play fully motivated, and players like Artur and Danilo Dias are usual X11 and will surely add quality to the team, possibly enough to win. Maritimo B has a good record at home, even against bigger teams, and Moreirense tend to have trouble in bigger travels. Other thing that makes me think about backing Maritimo B is that Moreirense have a somewhat strange record of supposed corruption, and who knows? After all, Moreirense only needs one point and there's still a game at home against Tondela. Actually, they can be Champions if Penafiel doesn't win in U.Madeira, which is usually a hard stadium to grab 3 points. Just jump in before on Maritimo B seriously drop! I just grabbed the DNB @ 6.00 30 minutes ago! When bookies notice it, Maritimo will possibly go favourites before KO. Sp. Braga x Maritimo: Sp. Braga @ 1.95 (bet365) for a 0.7 stake This one just follows the ideas of the last bet for Maritimo B. As Artur, Danilo Dias and Nuno Rocha leave, Maritimo's manager called 6 players from the B team which are usually not first team in Maritimo B. Maritimo will surely be weaker in the bench and their defensive line has been very leaky lately. Braga playing at home, will possibly fight for honor and for the 6th place. Except Eduardo and Baiano, Braga has the full team available and although I see them concede once, as Derley is a great striker and can score, Braga will surely have many chances facing a Maritimo, and will possibly win this one.

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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14

Back to the Portuguese League betting. Two bets for now. Nacional x Sporting: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 (Unibet) for a 0.75 stake Both Sporting and Nacional achieved outstanding results in terms of expectations. Nacional was expected to perform well and end mid-table, but actually achieved Europa League qualification, while Sporting wanted the 3rd place for CL play-off spot. Instead, Sporting eventually fought hard for the championship, losing to a much better Benfica at the end, but achieving the 2nd place for direct CL qualification is a big achievement for a team that's full of young talent and that surpassed a big financial crisis. However, Leonardo Jardim (Sporting coach) already advised that the team is not on vacations, and revealed that he wants the 3 points. He might do one or two changes, but I expect a good Sporting side, with no pressure at all. Nacional's manager said that still feels motivation within his team while they want to see themselves to other teams for the transfer market beginning. Nacional is a very hard team to beat, and I'm not sure that Sporting could manage to do it. But I can't see them losing as well, so a draw might seem okay. However, I'm not willing to go for that risk but I do believe that both teams will fight hard enough for the win. No pressure at all will help in free-flowing as well. Nacional usually score at home and have some great counter-attacking processes. Sporting plays a very effective football and will surely know how to dismantle Nacional's defensive line. I think Over 2.5 @ 1.85 has a touch of value, so I'm taking it. Arouca x Gil Vicente: Draw @ 3.10 (bet365) for a 0.35 stake This one is just about avoiding relegation. Both teams are with 28 points, way ahead of getting relegated. Still, they are still not safe. Paços de Ferreira winning both of their games while Arouca or Gil Vicente both losing them could see them miserably fail and end up in 15th place, which gives a play-off spot against the 3rd placed team in Second Division. Plus, if Arouca still draws this one and Paços wins both games, they have full disavantadge in direct confrontation (0-0 3-1 for Paços) if Gil Vicente eventually wins on sunday or draws on matchday 30. Then how would both teams save their seasons? That's right...a draw. With a draw, both teams would reach 29 points, making it impossible for Paços to save themselves, as with a 29 points tie, a mini-league between 3 teams is the tie-breaker. And considering a draw, Gil Vicente would have 7 points, Arouca 5, and Paços 4. I do think Arouca will have the edge here, but I wouldn't be surprised if both teams settled for a draw and avoid risking no more for the final matchday in one week. Arouca is actually needing some money as well as rumours also talk about financial problems there...so why not a draw??
The odds on Maritimo B is a clear mistake...no way that bet will be valid. Agree with the draw on Arouca - Gil Vicente...is one of my bets for tomorrow...0-0 at 9.00 is worth a shot as the draw suits both teams! GL
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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 is it? http://i.imgur.com/TT83zA1.png sorry as it is in Portuguese. But I think it shows up the bet on that odd. Now the odds are at 2.90, and 2.20 on the DNB. Too late, but not for me :) lucky to have caught that! Usually if it is fixed, teams like to go for the 1-1, but I agree that 0-0 could be a good bet as both teams are not that great in attack, especially Gil Vicente. GL. Odds are now at 2.80 in some bookies, expecting it to go until 2.50 for tomorrow.

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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 mate, i didn´t say you were lying...i just said the odds were wrongly placed by the bookie...on the 1X2 Maritimo openned on Bet365 at 3.00...how do you explain that the DNB is 6.00??? clear mistake...but lets hope maritimo wins and the bet doesn´t get canceled...GL cheers

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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 Braga v Maritimo Braga: Baiano (17/1 d), Vincent Sasso (7/0 d), Eduardo (28/0 gk) Maritimo: Igor Rossi (12/1 d), Fidelis (11/1 f), João Luis (14/0 m) Olhanense v FC Porto Olhanense: Mladen (16/0 d), João Ribeiro (12/0 m), Mário Santana (2/0 m), Oumar Diakhité (25/2 d) Porto: Helton (23/0 first goalkeeper), Nabil Ghilas (16/1 f), Ricardo Quaresma (11/4 f), Alex Sandro (25/0 d), Eliaquim Mangala (21/2 d), Josué (19/4 m) Information from more then 50 football leagues and competitions at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 huge value on the underdogs in this final round. i dont usually bet this time of the season, and when i do i use lower stakes...but i see great value on all underdogs mainly Benfica, Setubal and Arouca...will try to post some thoughts around mid-day.

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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 sorry...didn´t have the chance to post again before the matches, but the underdogs delivered well...Arouca conceded at 87' so the loss should have been minimized. Benfica is still putting up a fight... cheers

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