Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14

[HastGill1]

Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14

Benfica v Sporting Clash between the top two in Portugal and with Porto's struggles continuing this is a good opportunity for Benfica to build up a cushion at the top of the table. Sporting have done very well so far this season, considering their budget compared to the big two, they have a problem in this game though in that two key players are out for them most importantly defensive midfielder William Carvalho (likely to move for £25m+ in the summer) who is suspended and defender Jefferson who is out injured. Sporting have been pretty solid so far but they have a pretty small squad and when the elite players are out they don't have much strength in depth, their record at Benfica is pretty terrible they have lost the last 6 there in the league scoring 1 goal in the process, Benfica haven't actually lost to anyone other than Porto at home in the league since August 2010. Cordozo has just returned to the Benfica side after a couple of months out injured and is a good option to come off the bench. Benfica's defence is decent keeping 4 clean sheets in the last 5 home games, but that is probably more down to the unadventurous way teams approach games against them, Sporting will go at them but they are pretty reliant on the goals of Montero and with 3 0-0 draws in the last 4 games there are signs that teams are beginning to be able to shut them down. Benfica look a decent play to me here, they will enjoy attacking the extra space in midfield areas they should enjoy against a more attacking side and with inexperienced Englishman Dier anchoring the midfield rather than William I can see Benfica having plenty of opportunities, placed this bet on Wednesday. Benfica -0.5-1.0AH - 2.14 - pinnacle - 4 Points

Rounds off a great day for me, match postponed cause the bloody stadium was falling apart..:eyes, replayed on Tuesday, I'm sure I'll be able to get the same bet at 1.9 or something..

[HastGill1]

Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14

Benfica v Sporting Clash between the top two in Portugal and with Porto's struggles continuing this is a good opportunity for Benfica to build up a cushion at the top of the table. Sporting have done very well so far this season, considering their budget compared to the big two, they have a problem in this game though in that two key players are out for them most importantly defensive midfielder William Carvalho (likely to move for £25m+ in the summer) who is suspended and defender Jefferson who is out injured. Sporting have been pretty solid so far but they have a pretty small squad and when the elite players are out they don't have much strength in depth, their record at Benfica is pretty terrible they have lost the last 6 there in the league scoring 1 goal in the process, Benfica haven't actually lost to anyone other than Porto at home in the league since August 2010. Cordozo has just returned to the Benfica side after a couple of months out injured and is a good option to come off the bench. Benfica's defence is decent keeping 4 clean sheets in the last 5 home games, but that is probably more down to the unadventurous way teams approach games against them, Sporting will go at them but they are pretty reliant on the goals of Montero and with 3 0-0 draws in the last 4 games there are signs that teams are beginning to be able to shut them down. Benfica look a decent play to me here, they will enjoy attacking the extra space in midfield areas they should enjoy against a more attacking side and with inexperienced Englishman Dier anchoring the midfield rather than William I can see Benfica having plenty of opportunities, placed this bet on Wednesday. Benfica -0.5-1.0AH - 2.14 - pinnacle - 4 Points

Reasoning is the same, weather is supposed to be pretty windy still tomorrow but I'm sure they will have the roof patched up enough to last the 90minutes, it would be very embarrassing if it had to be called off again! Had a lump on the -1.0AH too, I don't think Benfica will win by more than 1 goal but with their home record it shouldn't be as high as 2.54. Benfica -0.5-1.0AH - 2.10 - pinnacle - 5 Points Benfica -1.0AH - 2.54 - pinnacle - 3 Points

[HastGill1]

Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14

Reasoning is the same, weather is supposed to be pretty windy still tomorrow but I'm sure they will have the roof patched up enough to last the 90minutes, it would be very embarrassing if it had to be called off again! Had a lump on the -1.0AH too, I don't think Benfica will win by more than 1 goal but with their home record it shouldn't be as high as 2.54. Benfica -0.5-1.0AH - 2.10 - pinnacle - 5 Points WON Benfica -1.0AH - 2.54 - pinnacle - 3 Points WON

Got there eventually! Stadium can fall apart now for all I care..:lol

[senk]

Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 Nice call Hastgill!

[Jase82]

Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 [TABLE=class: couponTable]

[TR] [TH][/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Saturday 15 February 2014[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Belenenses v Académica de Coimbra (18:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.2 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.4 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]100.66 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Sporting CP v Olhanense (20:15 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.2 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 7.8 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 21 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]100.92 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Sunday 16 February 2014[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Futebol Clube de Arouca v Nacional da Madeira (16:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.3 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.2 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.5 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]101.55 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Marítimo v Vitória de Setúbal (16:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.93 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.6 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4.5 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]101.81 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Vitoria de Guimaraes v Rio Ave (16:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.37 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.25 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.6 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]100.65 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Paços de Ferreira v Benfica (17:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 9.6 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4.8 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.41 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]102.17 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Gil Vicente v FC Porto (19:15 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 14 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 6.2 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.3 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]100.19 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Monday 17 February 2014[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Estoril-Praia v Sporting de Braga (20:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.87 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.25 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.9 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]100.03 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Jase82]

Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 [TABLE=class: couponTable]

[TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Saturday 1 March 2014[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Estoril-Praia v Olhanense (18:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.33 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 5.8 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 12 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]100.76 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Sporting CP v Sporting de Braga (20:15 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.6 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4.3 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]101.03 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Sunday 2 March 2014[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Gil Vicente v Vitória de Setúbal (16:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.55 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.2 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.25 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]101.23 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Nacional da Madeira v Rio Ave (16:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.2 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.45 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.95 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]99.76 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Paços de Ferreira v Marítimo (16:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.62 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.25 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.2 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]100.11 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Belenenses v Benfica (17:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 11 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 5.5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.4 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]98.70 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Vitoria de Guimaraes v FC Porto (19:15 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 7.5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4.6 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.55 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]99.59 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Monday 3 March 2014[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Futebol Clube de Arouca v Académica de Coimbra (20:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.2 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.25 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]102.02 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[cambroia]

Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 Sporting without Adrien and Montero, Braga with a new coach. Adrien is big blow for Sporting but Montero even being the top scorer, i dont think so. Slimani proved for more than once, that he is a good striker...Montero is totally overrated.. After Porto defeat last sunday Sporting will be even more confident. Sporting at home with a price around evens, is a pure gift. Take it with high stakes. GL

[cambroia]

Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 About Porto and Benfica. Wait for in play. Porto as usual will play it slow, also will miss Varela and Jackson. It has been raining all day, the pitch wont be in the perfect conditions...If the odds for Porto reaches 1.9 (probably will) take it...Guimaraes is a hard place to play, all the "big three" usually struggle but end up winning. The same aplies for Benfica...if you like combos, take that low odd for Benfica otherwise wait for in-play, if the price goes up to 1.5-1.6 take it aswell. Cant imagine another result other than a win for Benfica. However i think they will score and control the match. In the last three years, Jorge Jesus messed things up because he thought he could play all season at the high speed he likes. After two matches for Europa League, Benfica will get the job done but will be happy with 1-0. GL

[jekyl]

Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 Portugal / Primeira Liga / Rio Ave vs Academica Coimbra / Total Goals - Over 2 @ 2.08 Bookie: Marathonbet Portugal is not well known with over games, but this one attracted my attention. Over 2 gives very good odd and in case of 2 goals bet is voided. Another thing is that Rio Ave scores in all last 12 games.

[Jase82]

Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 [TABLE=class: couponTable, width: 617]

[TR] [TH=class: firstColumn]Friday 7 March 2014[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Rio Ave v Académica de Coimbra (20:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.1[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.25[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.4[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.12 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Saturday 8 March 2014[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Sporting de Braga v Nacional da Madeira (20:15 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.65[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.8[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]6.5[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]102.31 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Sunday 9 March 2014[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Olhanense v Belenenses (16:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.84[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.1[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.84[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]102.68 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Paços de Ferreira v Gil Vicente (16:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.8[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.6[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]5.2[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]102.56 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Benfica v Estoril-Praia (17:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.7[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]8.7[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]99.44 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Vitória de Setúbal v Sporting CP (17:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]6.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.9[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.63[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]102.62 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]FC Porto v Futebol Clube de Arouca (19:15 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.2[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]7.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]18[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]102.40 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Monday 10 March 2014[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Marítimo v Vitoria de Guimaraes (20:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.52[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.1[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]102.24 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[JuMeSyn]

Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 Vitória Setúbal x Sporting Lisbon - Over 2.5 @ 2.05 for a 0.80 stake (b365) Sporting needs to win to keep on chasing Benfica which is 5 points ahead. They have Montero and Adrien (two very important players) back on the team after being suspended. They will add quality to the team offensive processes. Vitória Setúbal has scored in almost every home game since Jose Couceiro took over (only didn't score against Benfica), and Sporting defense has been quite leaky lately, home and away. Against harder opponents, Setúbal has a lot of trouble in not conceding, both at home and away. There are clear indicators here for a Over 2.5, and it looks value at 2.05 while I make it around the 1.90 mark. Plus, for betfair users, I think Sporting will have to fight hard to win it, but they might just deliver the win in the second half final moments, just like it has happened in the last few games. I think laying Setubal or backing Sporting at 70' of Setubal winning or draw might yield a positive outcome. SL Benfica x Estoril Praia - BTTS @ 2.10 for a 0.75 stake (b365) Since the departure of Matic, Fesja took his spot and Benfica lost some attacking depth, even though they always manage to score at home (scored in every single home league match one this season and on the last season), so I think it is safe to assure that Benfica will definitely score. They also don't concede for 4 consecutive home matches, and only conceded 1 goal in the past 10 official games which is very impressive. However, Estoril might just score one as they are a team who knows how to score against any opponent with their impressive away counter-attacking approaches. They have one of the best coaches in the league, and Benfica had a lot of trouble against them in the October, although they won 2-1, and Estoril only didn't score away against Belenenses in a dull 0-0 draw. They recently won against FC Porto away (1-0), as well, inflicting the first FC Porto league home defeat in the last 5 years. For the Europa League, Estoril scored in every away match, even against hard opponents as Friburg or Sevilla. I really believe Estoril has what it takes to surprise today and BTTS has some value at 2.10 while I rate it 1.90. Olhanense x Belenenses - Olhanense @ 2.70 for a 0.35 stake (b365) Both teams are fighting for avoiding relegation. Belenenses is that awful away team there is in every championship, and They haven't scored an away goals for more than 8 matches (!!). They still haven't won an away game, and although this one might break that curse because Olhanense is an awful team, they look the much better team at the moment. I frankly rate Olhanense the worst team of the league, but new manager and 3 quality players that came from Italy in the January window (Santana, Obodo, Paulo Sergio) gave a positive impact to the team, with good home performances against Maritimo (draw) and Gil Vicente (win). Both teams will want to win this one and a frankly think the Overs should be much lower because both teams will want to score to win, although a Olhanense 1-0 goal might see them defend the result since that moment and shut up shop. This sums up for an Olhanense win.

[JuMeSyn]

Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 1/3 on last week. Quite unlucky on Benfica - Estoril, Estoril managed to hit the bar on last minute :( well, moving forward, today there's one interesting one: Académica x Sporting Braga - DNB Académica @ 2.5 for 2/3 stake Académica surely are surprising everyone with such great results lately and are now in the decisive fight for European spots. In the last 7 games, Académica had 6 clean sheets mainly due to great exhibitions not only from their compact and united defensive line, but also due to GK Ricardo, which is currently the 2nd best portuguese GK. The only team that managed to score one goal against them was 4th place Estoril (L 0-1) However, they haven't been that effective on the attack as well, and only managed to score against Arouca (3-0 away win) and against Gil Vicente (1-0 home win), with the rest being 0-0 dull draws. Salvador Agra and Makelele are important players that are back on the called-ups and will surely be on the XI squad. Maybe Agra on the bench. Sp. Braga has a new manager for 2 weeks now. Jorge Paixão managed to get the whole team's motivation back up after a 1-2 loss against Sporting Lisbon and managed to scrape a hard-fought win against 5th place Nacional, at home (2-1). However, team is still lacking stability at the back and Alan, Eder and Rafa Silva are absent from this game. Three very important players in the attacking dynamic. I feel Braga will really miss them, even though they have Rusescu and Pardo up front, the midfield is not creative enough to create chances for them. Académica will keep it tight at the back, and will managed to score one at least, and I can't see them losing here. A DNB on them @ 2.50 are good odds, and it started as DNB 3.00 5 days ago when the markets opened up.

[Jase82]

Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 [TABLE=class: couponTable, width: 617]

[TR] [TH=class: firstColumn]Friday 14 March 2014[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Académica de Coimbra v Sporting de Braga (20:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.75[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.28[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.83 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Saturday 15 March 2014[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Gil Vicente v Rio Ave (16:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.2[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.4[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]102.33 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Estoril-Praia v Marítimo (18:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.75[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.8[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]5.3[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]102.33 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Vitoria de Guimaraes v Paços de Ferreira (20:15 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.5[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.79 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Sunday 16 March 2014[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Belenenses v Vitória de Setúbal (16:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.55[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.2[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.15[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]102.21 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Futebol Clube de Arouca v Olhanense (16:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.3[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]102.67 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Sporting CP v FC Porto (19:15 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.35[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.4[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.82 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Monday 17 March 2014[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Nacional da Madeira v Benfica (20:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]6.3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.1[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.6[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]102.76 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[JuMeSyn]

Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 Voided bet in Académica x Braga. Arouca - Olhanense: Arouca @ 1.95 for a 0.75 stake. Both teams fight to avoid relegation, with Arouca on 13th (19 points) and Olhanense on 15th (17 points). Both teams are in awful moments of form. Arouca has 2 consecutives losses against FC Porto (1-4 away) and Academica (0-3 home). Although Academica was a really bad game from them, they've shown some good stuff in the first half against FC Porto. Also, before both games, Arouca went on 4 consecutives draws, most of them against hard teams (including Sp.Braga (a), Estoril (a), Nacional (h)). Arouca has a minor absence, and has played 3 matches at home against teams below 10th place, recording 2 wins and 1 draw. Olhanense is still to win an away match. They have 5 consecutives away losses, and are in real pressure to avoid relegation. Winning tomorrow could be very important, but I can't it happening. They are not playing well at all, sometimes ultra - defensive thanks to his Italian manager, and they also will have 4 important absences: Dionisi (scored 4 of 14 total goals of Olhanense), Femi (main team winger), Lucas Souza (main team box-to-box midfielder), Rui Duarte (main team, midfielder and captain). Santana (ex-Genoa) still can't play due to injury. These absences will definitely make a difference, not only because of their importance, but also due to the bad bench Olhanense have. Team will probably try to get the ball to Paulo Sergio (quick winger) as much as possible. This will be a tight match, maybe we will only to see a winner in the final minutes. Both teams know the importance of this game, and a single error might cost too much. However, I do believe that Arouca will have the edge, not only because they have the home factor, but because Olhanense are missing 4 important players. Sporting Lisbon - FC Porto - DNB Sporting Lisbon @ 2.00 for a 0.60 stake. The classico of this matchday is decisive in defining the 2nd place and is surrounded by some bad atmosphere between both clubs and between the referees and Sporting Lisbon which is not good for the beautiful game. Moreover, the nominated referee is Porto-biased, but due to so much pressure, he will make a VERY defensive exhibition tomorrow. Or he will play it british, which will benefit Sporting, or he will just point out foul after foul, which will benefit FC Porto aerial strength (Mangala, Fernando, Abdoulaye, Jackson Martinez). Sporting Lisbon drew 2-2 against Vitória Setúbal in a hard-fought match 1 week ago, and did a very poor exhibition. They are losing the quality they've shown in the first half of the season, game after game. Team is looking very inflexible and dependent of the direct play towards the talisman (Slimani) and of the big player William Carvalho. Some exhibitions before weren't also convincing. FC Porto is gaining momentum after dismissing Paulo Fonseca. New manager Luis Castro boosted the players confidence for a 4-1 win against Arouca and a 1-0 win over Napoli in the Europa League. They are still looking quite unstable in their defensive line and still can't build play from behind, and effective pressure in the middle might break them apart in some moments. However, they have 2 great wingers (Quaresma and Varela) and a big striker (Jackson Martinez) which will surely damage Sporting. Careful also with set-pieces, FC Porto might have advantage there. FC Porto usually have a lot of trouble in Sporting Lisbon home. It is usually their worst away stadium in terms of results. Recent historical data points out the 0-0 draw as the most possible result as well. Last 5 matches saw 3 0-0 draws, 1 1-1 draw and a Sporting 3-0 win. I think we might see a draw here, although I really see no value there. However, I'm hopeful that Sporting might just marginally win it. Sporting last results may just not matter, classicos and derbies are a different kind of games. They're playing at home, the atmosphere will be intense and still have to lose at home this season. FC Porto may accuse some fatigue from the Napoli game and may have trouble in handling the atmosphere.

[blueberry099]

Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 JumESyn, How do you think on Blenenses vs Vitoria Setubal?

[JuMeSyn]

Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 I recommend you to avoid that particular match. Belenenses haven't scored in 5 consecutives matches for now. Last 10 games, they have only scored 2 goals in a 1 game (!!!) strange enough, they actually don't attack that bad. They just don't have a good striker. However, on the other hand, Setúbal has 5 consecutives away losses and managed to do a very good exhibition against Sporting Lisbon the week before. It's very hard to predict something here, complete gamble. But I think that the team who scores first will win here. However, my model says that all value is on Setúbal. But obviously, calcutating goal expectancy with a team that does not score nor concede (Belenenses) gives away some weird results. The model also gives big value on Unders 1.5, but this could be well overestimated, so I recommend caution and small stakes.

[blueberry099]

Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 thanks for your comment

[blueberry099]

Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 JuMeSyn, How do you think on Benfica today? will them same like porto, because of tiring of the Europa ?

[arsenalfh]

Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 Great pick on Sporting, I really didn't think they had the quality to beat Porto. Benfica are on another level to Porto and Sporting this season though. Since December they've been incredible and they have a really strong squad as we saw midweek when players like Gaitan, Enzo Perez and Lima were rested beating a decent Tottanham side comfortably. I can see them beating Nacional here but I think I'll wait and hopefully get some nice odds in play because I'm not entirely sure they'll cover the handicap in Madeira and the odds on the straight win look a bit short.

[JuMeSyn]

Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14

JuMeSyn' date=' How do you think on Benfica today? will them same like porto, because of tiring of the Europa ?[/quote'] I'm sorry as I didn't have the time to come here. And I'm glad I didn't move on that one, but I would hardly would have done any bet there. I was predicting a 0-1/0-2 win but the early Nacional goal changed the game completely. Benfica are on another level, totally true. And they actually had a very bad start in the season. The individual quality they possess is miles away from any other club in Portugal, IMO they are even top-16 in Europe. They were really unlucky not to go through on the CL, but they might just win the Europa League or so. I think only Juventus/Fiorentina or Red Bull Salzburg may stop them.

[blueberry099]

Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 Rio Ave is the worst Home team in this leauge?

[JuMeSyn]

Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 Indeed. However, SC Braga has a lot of absences on the attack, and Rio Ave usually brings his "A" game against bigger teams at home. My model shows up correct pricing on most of the bookies, but maybe they are overevaluating the Braga absences, though. Only slight value on O2.5, with 2.2 showing up and 2.4/2.5 available in some bookies. I would say that game is a "no bet", but I placed a small stake on BTTS as I think this could end up 1-1.

[JuMeSyn]

Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 Vitória Guimarães - Gil Vicente: Over 2.5 @ 2.15 for a 0.55 stake (bet365). It looks like the other way around, as Gil Vicente might just shut up shop as always, and Vitória Guimarães is really bad form. My model actually says that, currently, and considering goals and shot data, they are the team that's performing worst defensively in the last 6 games. They actually have conceded twice from the worst away team in the league in the past week, so that actually says a lot. However, they do have some weapons up front, with some of their players showing great signs of individual improvement, especially Maazou, Marco Matias and Crivellaro. Gil Vicente is a plain counter-attacking team. Their processes consists of low defensive line, and 3 quick players up front the launch dangerous counter-attacking moves. However, their defensive process is not the best, and the low defensive line and compactness compensates the lack of quality there. That's why they usually concede a lot. Still, they have been surprising in the past weeks, delivering 2 wins in the last 3 matches. Both teams don't defend that well, but have dangerous players upfront so I'm expecting much more shots on target than what could be expected from a O2.5 line @ 2.15. There is definite value here. Marítimo - Sporting: Islam Slimani To Score Anytime @ 2.75 for a 0.40 stake (bet365). After a very important win over rivals FC Porto, Sporting now have to go to Madeira to face Marítimo, who are a very strong team at home. Benfica and FC Porto have both lost here (2-1 and 1-0, respectively), so Sporting players are much warned about this and they will surely be advised to the dangerous players that Maritimo have upfront, mainly Derley and Danilo Dias, two great brazilians. However, they are quite leaky in defence when facing teams with good attacking processes. Model results are not conclusive, as Under 2.5 has high value in terms of goal expectancies. However, I can't really see tomorrow as an Unders game. And I actually think we might see Overs 2.5, as both teams are currently better off attacking than defending. Sporting will come up motivated enough to win it here, they are a very spirited side and will surely score once or twice. Striker Islam Slimani TSA odd still bothers me. He has scored one goal in the last 4 matches, and is the talisman of the team. He also has scored in 3 of the last 4 matches. I can see no reason for not backing him to score at least one goal at such 2.75 odds.

[cambroia]

Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 Great write ups JuMeSyn...agree with both bets! GL

[JuMeSyn]

Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 completely missed the first one...Slimani got to score one but it was ruled out by the referee. Very hard to see that it was correct. Also missed a one-on-one. Bad luck on that one. I will post tomorrow if I find something interesting.

[JuMeSyn]

Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 Just took a look the stats of Vitoria - Gil Vicente...31 shots!!! 0 goals...:( Paços Ferreira - Arouca: BTTS @ 2.00 for a 0.50 stake (bet365) Paços Ferreira did an impressive win last round against Vitória Guimarães by 1-2, which made them breathe out from the relegation zone. Now, they will face at home a rival which fights for the same objectives of avoiding relegation. Arouca also won against Olhanense in the last round by 2-0. Both managers have already said that they want to dominate the match and win. I think that this one will be a very nervous game from side to side, and I do feel this may end up in a draw. However, Paços Ferreira games rarely end up in a dull 0-0. Can't see them not scoring, but I also can't see them conceding against Arouca, a team that is very intelligent up in the attack, and rarely don't score while playing away. They have scored in 6 sucessive away matches, and scored against FC Porto, Benfica and Sporting while away. This is very impressive. Paços Ferreira has André Leão (main defensive midfielder) ruled out for injury, and they haven't been that great while defending lately. I think the draw chance is very high and could be a bet to consider, but I'm just going for the less risky BTTS, which looks attractive at 2.00. Benfica - Academica: Under 2.5 @ 2.05 for a 0.50 stake (bet365) There is definite value on the Unders for Benfica - Academica. Benfica are on high form, haven't lost an official match since November (against Olympiakos away, 0-1), and after 10 sucessive wins, Tottenham put a stop on that winning streak with a 2-2 draw. Last championship match also saw Benfica stuttering a bit, in a 2-4 away win. Some worrying mental collapses. However, they are winning for the championship in 6 sucessive matches, and only drew twice at home, while the other games reveal wins, mainly by the 2-0 scoreline (5/11 games). They haven't conceded at home for 5 matches!! This is very impressive indeed. However, even though they do some great fast paced counter-attacking, they don't seem to score that many goals compared with last seasons. However, Academica is no ordinary team, as they are the 2nd best away team when it comes to defending. Only 8 goals conceded in 11 games and 0 goals conceded in the last 4 away games (including a game against Sporting Lisbon). On the other hand, they have only scored 6 goals in those 11 matches (3rd worst team on the league, on away matches). It will be very hard for Academica to score tomorrow against such a strong Benfica at home, when it comes to the championship. I do not think Benfica will have such a mental collapse as against Nacional or Tottenham, and will almost certainly keep a clean sheet here. Benfica usually starts the home games with a blast, trying to score early on. If Benfica doesn't manage to score early on against Academica, they be on for a lot of trouble for the rest of the game, and can't see them scoring more than 2 goals against such a very organized Académica side. Académica are a good team when it comes to defense, and have one of the best goalkeepers of the championship (Ricardo). The unders @ 2.05 look very tasty, based on all these factors. Vitoria Setubal - Estoril Praia: BTTS @ 2.00 for a 0.65 stake (bet365) This one is the best bet of the week, by a long margin. Match is only on Monday, though Both Vitoria Setubal and Estoril Praia are both in-form teams, alongside Benfica, Sporting and Academica. Vitoria Setubal are playing very attractive football, and have some very creative players up-front, such as Ricardo Horta and Rafael Martins, with are led by João Mário (future star in the making) in the midfield. They managed to draw against Sporting Lisbon at home 2 weeks ago, in a great football game, and won against Belenenses last week away (3-1) and shown a great display once again. On the other hand, Estoril is 4th placed and have a very good team and one of the best managers of the league. They always employ positive football, but while playing away they tend to use the counter-attacks to destroy oppositions. Plus, they are the most effective team of the league, as in my data I have them as the team who needs less shots to score a goal. They also have playmaker Evandro back on the team after suspension. Both teams will want to win here. Estoril wants to secure 4th spot and to keep on chasing FC Porto, which are 4 points ahead. Vitoria Setubal have been playing really well and the Europa League dream can start being a reality if they win on Monday. Estoril really defend well, and rarely don't score away (only didn't score against Belenenses and Benfica last match). I'm guessing this one will be a very hard-fought match, possible draw, but I can't see it ending goalless from both sides.

[blueberry099]

Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 How do you think on Nacional de Madeira, JuMeSyn? Olhanenses a lot of important injury players.

[JuMeSyn]

Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 Nacional has a lot of trouble on away games and Olhanense only manages to get some positive results at home. I personally would not touch it pre-live and would only jump in-play, depending on stats and live radio commentary. I do feel Nacional have the edge (better team, better players, better manager), though.

[Hume]

Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 I like Benfica against Porto in the Taco de Portugal. Recent history suggest Porto will win or at the very least draw this game. They have won 5 of the last 10 meetings between the sides and lost 3. Only one of these at home. Although with the sacking of Paulo Fonseca you've got to wonder whether interim manager Luis Castro can mastermind a win here, as he famously did with Penafiel. I would like to know other people's opinions about this match.

[Simeon Borisof]

Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 I watched Porto-Belenses last night and i can tell you that Porto are terrible at the moment.They look clueless upfront.The noly reason they beat Belenses was that Belenses got 1 man short at the end of the 1st half.Benfica is a team who can put Porto's defence on pressure and it won't stand a chance.I was hoping some of the Portugal League spacialists to give an opinion because i don't know about missing players but i can make a statement based on yesterday's drama.Porto was awful and i think that if Benfica are with their A squad they will win the game.