NFL: Week 7 picks

[kevshat]

5pts Arizona vs Seattle - Under 40.5pts 10/11 BetVictor I think we will get a strong defensive battle here. Seattle are statistically the second best defence in the league while Arizona rate 5th against the run so scoring is likely to be low here. Seattle’s offense hasn’t been as potent on the road this season while Arizona haven’t got much going and face the potential of their star receiver Larry Fitzgerald being marked out of the game by this strong Arizona secondary. That all points to a low scoring game to me. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/seattle-seahawks--arizona-cardinals-betting-defences-can-shine-in-arizona

[goochrules]

Re: NFL: Week 7 picks R. mendenhall under 47.5 rush yards sportsbet.com 9/10 Mendenhall has failed to reach this figure in the last 3 outings for the cardinals. Coming into this week coach has lashed out at him and the way he trains after his costly 2 fumbles against the 49ers. Andre Ellington has been more productive anyway with YPC and will get the nod ahead starting infront of mendenhall. The other factor is , cards are playing a very stout defense in Seattle who didn't give up 47 yards to Gore/MJDrew or Chris Johnson who are much better backs than Mendenhall.Good luck

[Crouch Potato]

Re: NFL: Week 7 picks Most Passing Yards for Round - Tony Romo @ 5.50 Centrebet There's a number of very strong reasons for taking this bet IMO: 1) DeMarco Murray will likely not play, and if he does will surely be less than 100%. Dunbar is out also. Tanner has a horrid YPC this year. 2) Eagles have a fast tempo offence. They often have scoring drives that take under 2 minutes. That will put the Cowboys on the field more often, and if they are behind, they'll have to throw it to move the chains. 3) This should be a high scoring game. Denver v Dallas made for many, many points, and like Philly, Denver have over 400 yards of offense in every game this year. Big key is that Eagles defense is worse, which actually makes the case for Romo throwing many yards stronger. 4) The competition for this honour is weak. Brady is a danger but the Jets defense isn't too bad and with Gronk and Amendola likely out I just can't see the Pats having THAT many passing yards. Brees is on a bye. Matt Ryan has no Julio and maybe no Roddy. Denver v Indy is a bit of a wildcard fixture, but I can see Indy running a lot and keeping Peyton off the field. Eli is a big threat though. Given the score in Dallas v Denver, and the way Philly have played this year, both in the speed of their offense and the porosity of their D, I think this is a great value bet.

[bawsak]

Re: NFL: Week 7 picks Houston @ Kansas City u40pts 10/11 (Betway) 40pts is a very low target but 2 of the NFL's best pass defences in the go head to head and I don't expect either offence to take the other team on through the air. Ball possession will be the key and both teams will be happy to pick up yards on the ground so I can see the point scoring being on the slow side. On KC's defence, Hali and Houston are the best pair of pass rushing OLBs in the league and Poe at NT at is one of the best inside pass rushers. You can argue they have played teams without a pass threat (Jax, Oakland, Buffalo) and Romo put decent numbers up against them, but the pass rush is for real and their DBs are ball hawks. This defence feeds on sacks and interceptions. Case Keenum is starting at QB for Houston. The undrafted free agent has never thrown a pass in the NFL so they will try to protect their inexperienced QB by running the ball. KC hasn't proved they can stop the run yet. Houston's defence do not have the sexy numbers in the sacks and INT column like KC but 2 key stats are they have fewest attempted passes and fewest completed passes against them. These stats could be misleading as they have trailed at half-time in 5 of 6 games (and trailed heavily sometimes) so teams are less likely to favour the pass 2nd half against them but they are also 5th in completion % (KC are 1st) so I think their pass D is a genuine strength. Don't be mislead by the points per game average against Houston as this is largely due to pick 6s thrown by the offence (I think at least one per game so far). A low target of 40pts but I think it should be nearer 35.

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: NFL: Week 7 picks Wondering what others' thoughts are on this. Complete hindsight thought that came to me while I was watching this this morning (and I absolutely also thought that the defences would make for an Unders game also)... The bookies do what we do, see the quality of the defences and set the line low, therefore offering clear value on the Overs side as maybe sometimes you get 2 defences that are so good, they make the Overs more likely as they're able to create turnovers and provide their Offence with excellent field position (like Mendenhall's TD run). Of course it could just be this morning's game was an anomaly, and I'm talking tosh :D

[-paddy-]

Re: NFL: Week 7 picks Regarding that low line for o/u, I remmeber when I started betting on NFL about 5 years ago, every weekend there was couple of game with lines low as 35. Standard is set higher these days, you can see maybe one game per week with o/u lines lower than 40.5. This season that line of 40.5 is very common and I play very often under, but I lost more times than won. Last week it was 49ers-Cards, under 40.5, two stout defences and division derby, I played under thinking how it should be set at around 36.5 and how I took value bet, but it went over by miles. So, 40.5 is very low line by today's standard, but I still can't get used to that. I would low to see stats on that line for this season. Case Keenum starting at QB, Schaub played very bad but this is still big downgrade for Texans offence. Andre Johnson is not 100%, Daniels is injured. They will force ball to Foster & Tate as much as possible. I' ve read that Chiefs OC want to give ball to Charles hands even more. So everything points to hard possesion game. IMO this game can only go over wiith pick-6 or special team score TD. I will play under 40.5 and probably will loose again :)

[Crouch Potato]

Re: NFL: Week 7 picks I think it's probably just more noticable when it happens because it's more surprising a result. Jets/Steelers was low scoring last week and many a Ravens-Steelers game has ended with a 13-10 type score. Perhaps what is also sticking out is the degree to which the over wins by, so there might be a spread betting angle in the sense that when the game does go over it can often be by a very big amount compared to the line. I don't really think there's much to betting on over with low totals though.

[bawsak]

Re: NFL: Week 7 picks I completely agree that the total points is not always low just because you have good defence. I think it is more dependant on the rate at which teams clock up yardage so I am more inclined to look at a low scoring game if I think both teams will run the ball and attempt high % safe passes so the clock keeps churning and you can see a few long drives potentially eating up 7 or 8 minutes and ending with 3 points. If you have risk taking QBs against the good defences then you can see the game being high scoring as they are more likely to pick up yardage quickly or else get off the field quickly. Smith at KC is one of the most conservative QBs around. He doesn't look for the big play too often but also doesn't throw many picks. If Houston try to give Keenum some freedom then what you said may happen but I have a feeling they will try to run the ball at KC's defence. While this game stays close, I can see both teams being not too unhappy picking up 30 yards on an offensive series and punting to play a field position game and wait for a chance for a turnover in an area of the field they can hurt.

[bawsak]

Re: NFL: Week 7 picks Cleveland @ Green Bay Cleveland (+10) 10/11 (Sportingbet) You would definitely have GB as favourite for this game but not by 10pts for me. I think Cleveland is an underrated team and have looked solid on the defensive side of the ball. (Best yards per pass on defence in NFL) The main reason I think Cleveland have a chance is 3/4 GBs starting linebackers (Matthews, Perry and Jones) are out for this game. Their offence is a threat against anyone but I think they will come up against one of the tougher defences in Cleveland. The games Green Bay have won this season they have had big games from the linebackers (apart from wk 2 v Washington where they didn't really need to). Already without Jones and Matthews last week, AJ Hawk had a monumental game at Baltimore and GB will rely on him even more after Perry suffered an injury on a sack on Flacco in the 2nd quarter. This was perhaps one injury too much and Baltimore scored all their points in the 2nd half. Hawk will be the defensive leader against Cleveland and he is more than capable of having a massive influence in any game but he will have a lot of unknown quantities beside him and for this reason I think the Browns have more of a chance than the spread says. Of course Lambeau Field + Aaron Rogers on form means Green Bay can beat anyone by 10pts but I think more often than not the Browns can keep this one close

[bawsak]

Re: NFL: Week 7 picks Any opinions on Chicago 10/11 @ Washington? Thinking of taking this but I may be missing something. Nothing in particular jumps out at me regarding the game other than results but I expected this to be more like 8/11. The Skins are 1-4 and the win was against Oakland. Is opinion simply that they should be better than this given their 10-6 last season?

[danj2202]

Any opinions on Chicago 10/11 @ Washington? Thinking of taking this but I may be missing something. Nothing in particular jumps out at me regarding the game other than results but I expected this to be more like 8/11. The Skins are 1-4 and the win was against Oakland. Is opinion simply that they should be better than this given their 10-6 last season?

Look i expect the bears to win but one thing you have to take into account is the loss of both starting defensive tackles and the mlb for the year, little bit of a soft underbelly exposed now and you should be able to run on the bears so look for a decent day from morris. That said the skins defense is terrible and would rather back cutler behind an improved offensive line in a shootout than rg3 who is onlt really returning to health now, cutler has tue better weapons and has had longer to prepare after playing on thursday last week. Shootout with the bears edging it Sent from my GT-I9505 using Tapatalk 2

[danj2202]

Regarding that low line for o/u, I remmeber when I started betting on NFL about 5 years ago, every weekend there was couple of game with lines low as 35. Standard is set higher these days, you can see maybe one game per week with o/u lines lower than 40.5. This season that line of 40.5 is very common and I play very often under, but I lost more times than won. Last week it was 49ers-Cards, under 40.5, two stout defences and division derby, I played under thinking how it should be set at around 36.5 and how I took value bet, but it went over by miles. So, 40.5 is very low line by today's standard, but I still can't get used to that. I would low to see stats on that line for this season. Case Keenum starting at QB, Schaub played very bad but this is still big downgrade for Texans offence. Andre Johnson is not 100%, Daniels is injured. They will force ball to Foster & Tate as much as possible. I' ve read that Chiefs OC want to give ball to Charles hands even more. So everything points to hard possesion game. IMO this game can only go over wiith pick-6 or special team score TD. I will play under 40.5 and probably will loose again :)

League has changed so much in recent years though. Every year playing defense gets harder to do as rule changes always favour offense Sent from my GT-I9505 using Tapatalk 2

[Dzontra85]

Re: NFL: Week 7 picks

Cleveland @ Green Bay Cleveland (+10) 10/11 (Sportingbet) You would definitely have GB as favourite for this game but not by 10pts for me. I think Cleveland is an underrated team and have looked solid on the defensive side of the ball. (Best yards per pass on defence in NFL) The main reason I think Cleveland have a chance is 3/4 GBs starting linebackers (Matthews, Perry and Jones) are out for this game. Their offence is a threat against anyone but I think they will come up against one of the tougher defences in Cleveland. The games Green Bay have won this season they have had big games from the linebackers (apart from wk 2 v Washington where they didn't really need to). Already without Jones and Matthews last week, AJ Hawk had a monumental game at Baltimore and GB will rely on him even more after Perry suffered an injury on a sack on Flacco in the 2nd quarter. This was perhaps one injury too much and Baltimore scored all their points in the 2nd half. Hawk will be the defensive leader against Cleveland and he is more than capable of having a massive influence in any game but he will have a lot of unknown quantities beside him and for this reason I think the Browns have more of a chance than the spread says. Of course Lambeau Field + Aaron Rogers on form means Green Bay can beat anyone by 10pts but I think more often than not the Browns can keep this one close

Also WR James Jones probably out as he didnt practice all week.

[bawsak]

Re: NFL: Week 7 picks

Also WR James Jones probably out as he didnt practice all week.

Yep, that will slow them down a bit on offence. I think with Rogers at QB, offence is always a threat though, but yes I think another factor which says the Browns have more of a chance the the spread gives them.

[bawsak]

Re: NFL: Week 7 picks

Wondering what others' thoughts are on this. Complete hindsight thought that came to me while I was watching this this morning (and I absolutely also thought that the defences would make for an Unders game also)... The bookies do what we do, see the quality of the defences and set the line low, therefore offering clear value on the Overs side as maybe sometimes you get 2 defences that are so good, they make the Overs more likely as they're able to create turnovers and provide their Offence with excellent field position (like Mendenhall's TD run). Of course it could just be this morning's game was an anomaly, and I'm talking tosh :D

I completely agree this can sometimes be the case with top defences. 2 quality defences with high tempo offences that either score quick or get off the field quick can provide the kind of game you are describing. As well as the turnovers if there are also quick series that don't eat up too much clock, then each team can have more offensive series so still can score some points. It is more how I see these 2 teams approaching the game along with the top quality defences that mean I think an unders game. The yards achieved / time of possession can be low I think with both teams running the ball and not asking their QBs to hit big throws. Smith is a non risk taking QB if ever there was one and I don't think Houston will ask Keenum to try anything too clever. I can see there being drives of 7 or 8 minutes ending with field goals which is more of the reason for unders, along with the quality of the defence.

[bawsak]

Re: NFL: Week 7 picks San Diego @ Jacksonville SD (-7.5) Evs (Betfred) Jacksonville are a poor team I am not sure if they will keep the score under 7 in any game this season, never mind win one. I think the bookies are being a bit too generous because they kept Denver closer than the spread but Denver gave them 4 turnovers and even with Blackman at WR and Henne improving at QB this is still a poor side and I don't see them troubling the Chargers

[bawsak]

Re: NFL: Week 7 picks

Look i expect the bears to win but one thing you have to take into account is the loss of both starting defensive tackles and the mlb for the year, little bit of a soft underbelly exposed now and you should be able to run on the bears so look for a decent day from morris. That said the skins defense is terrible and would rather back cutler behind an improved offensive line in a shootout than rg3 who is onlt really returning to health now, cutler has tue better weapons and has had longer to prepare after playing on thursday last week. Shootout with the bears edging it Sent from my GT-I9505 using Tapatalk 2

In hindsight there is no value in Bears here. This is a 50/50 game so 10/11 bookies have it right. Bet may win as Chicago just took lead 41-38 but great call by Danj on a close shootout. I need to stop looking for value in bets just bcause it seems value but no solid reasoning

[bawsak]

Re: NFL: Week 7 picks

Houston @ Kansas City u40pts 10/11 (Betway) 40pts is a very low target but 2 of the NFL's best pass defences in the go head to head and I don't expect either offence to take the other team on through the air. Ball possession will be the key and both teams will be happy to pick up yards on the ground so I can see the point scoring being on the slow side. On KC's defence, Hali and Houston are the best pair of pass rushing OLBs in the league and Poe at NT at is one of the best inside pass rushers. You can argue they have played teams without a pass threat (Jax, Oakland, Buffalo) and Romo put decent numbers up against them, but the pass rush is for real and their DBs are ball hawks. This defence feeds on sacks and interceptions. Case Keenum is starting at QB for Houston. The undrafted free agent has never thrown a pass in the NFL so they will try to protect their inexperienced QB by running the ball. KC hasn't proved they can stop the run yet. Houston's defence do not have the sexy numbers in the sacks and INT column like KC but 2 key stats are they have fewest attempted passes and fewest completed passes against them. These stats could be misleading as they have trailed at half-time in 5 of 6 games (and trailed heavily sometimes) so teams are less likely to favour the pass 2nd half against them but they are also 5th in completion % (KC are 1st) so I think their pass D is a genuine strength. Don't be mislead by the points per game average against Houston as this is largely due to pick 6s thrown by the offence (I think at least one per game so far). A low target of 40pts but I think it should be nearer 35.

Perhaps got a bit lucky on this one with no 4th quarter points. 2nd half was more like the game I thought would happen. Houston line did a great job picking up the rush and Keelum had an excellent first half - settled in early and looked confident. Still not convinced by KCs rush D and I think you can have success passing short over the middle. Be interesting when they come up against teams who like to throw to TEs. Hard to knock a team that's 7-0 though and Hali and Houston are just terrifying when the get going.

[bawsak]

Re: NFL: Week 7 picks

Cleveland @ Green Bay Cleveland (+10) 10/11 (Sportingbet) You would definitely have GB as favourite for this game but not by 10pts for me. I think Cleveland is an underrated team and have looked solid on the defensive side of the ball. (Best yards per pass on defence in NFL) The main reason I think Cleveland have a chance is 3/4 GBs starting linebackers (Matthews, Perry and Jones) are out for this game. Their offence is a threat against anyone but I think they will come up against one of the tougher defences in Cleveland. The games Green Bay have won this season they have had big games from the linebackers (apart from wk 2 v Washington where they didn't really need to). Already without Jones and Matthews last week, AJ Hawk had a monumental game at Baltimore and GB will rely on him even more after Perry suffered an injury on a sack on Flacco in the 2nd quarter. This was perhaps one injury too much and Baltimore scored all their points in the 2nd half. Hawk will be the defensive leader against Cleveland and he is more than capable of having a massive influence in any game but he will have a lot of unknown quantities beside him and for this reason I think the Browns have more of a chance than the spread says. Of course Lambeau Field + Aaron Rogers on form means Green Bay can beat anyone by 10pts but I think more often than not the Browns can keep this one close

I really thought Cleveland could have put up more fight here. Doesn't look like they have had much going on offence and Lattimore's had a big day at LB for the Pack. 2 early scores for GB didn't help either. Oh well - live and learn!!

[bawsak]

Re: NFL: Week 7 picks

San Diego @ Jacksonville SD (-7.5) Evs (Betfred) Jacksonville are a poor team I am not sure if they will keep the score under 7 in any game this season, never mind win one. I think the bookies are being a bit too generous because they kept Denver closer than the spread but Denver gave them 4 turnovers and even with Blackman at WR and Henne improving at QB this is still a poor side and I don't see them troubling the Chargers

Jacksonville has put up some decent passing numbers but look terrible except clutch situations. Poor 3rd down, red zone and goal to go conversion rates and San Diego have dominated the clock.

[danj2202]

New york giants v minnesota vikings Peyton hillis to score the first touchdown 16/1 paddy power (double winnings if he scores first and then again) Over 47.5 total points 10/11 bet365 Looks like jacobs doesnt play tonight which means the giants are down to hillis and cox and rumour says hillis starts. Considering they will still likely run in close and a starting rb is usually around 6 this is a bit of value Also wouldnt be at all surprised to see this game go over the total as giants will likely be throwing the ball more Sent from my GT-I9505 using Tapatalk 2