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Aidymac

World Cup Europe Qualification > Tuesday October 15th

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Re: World Cup Europe Qualification > Tuesday October 15th

Ladbrokes have somehow come up with 1.5 for Ukraine to get a clean sheet against San Marino' date=' I would put my house on if I could, they'll only let me have a fiver though so I won't bother :lol..won't last long and as close to a certain winner as you will find tonight.[/quote'] Easy find a Laddies shop if your that eager to get on mate. It is a cracking price

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Re: World Cup Europe Qualification > Tuesday October 15th

Ladbrokes have somehow come up with 1.5 for Ukraine to get a clean sheet against San Marino' date=' I would put my house on if I could, they'll only let me have a fiver though so I won't bother :lol..won't last long and as close to a certain winner as you will find tonight.[/quote'] Trick is to place it in a double, like I did. The limit is then non-existent :D Bosnia and Ukraine to nil @ 1.83 10pts England and Ukraine to nil : 1.88 10pts

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Re: World Cup Europe Qualification > Tuesday October 15th Serbia go into the match vs.Macedonia without the services of some very important players, but they should be able to field a decent side that is well capable of winning this one. Serbia: Stojkovic (Partizan) - Rukavina (Valladolid), Ivanovic (Chelsea), Nastasic (Man City), Kolarov (Man City) - Matic (Benfica), Milivojevic (Anderlecht) - Basta (Udinese), Tadic (Twente), Tosic (CSKA Moscow) - Djordjevic (FC Nantes) Macedonia w/o their biggest star Goran Pandev.

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Re: World Cup Europe Qualification > Tuesday October 15th Group B Italy v Armenia 19.45 Armenia look good value here to me. Italy have qualified. Armenia have a faint chance of finishing second and finishing second and getting into the playoffs, but it's such a remote chance I think it's best to put it aside. But irrespective of any qualification chance, I think Armenia's odds are too long here. Their recent shots on target stats compare very well with Italy's. Italy beat Armenia away in the reverse fixture in October 2012. But in 17 games since then, they've only won three by 2 goals or more. Most of their wins are narrow ones. Since that early defeat to Italy, Armenia have won 4 games, drawn 1 and lost 4 (in all games including friendles). They've beaten Denmark and Czech Republic away. Of their 4 defeats, only one was by more than two goals - they lost 3-0 at home to Czech Republic. I'd say there's an outside chance of an Armenia win or draw here, and if they lose it's unlikely to be more than one goal ... Armenia +1.5 1.92 sbobet

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Re: World Cup Europe Qualification > Tuesday October 15th Group A Belgium v Wales 20.00 Belgium have won the group in fine style and Wales have disappointed once again. But Belgium rarely thrash teams at home. They've only beaten Kazakhstan at home by more than 2 goals in the last 2 years. Although they've won 7 and drawn 3 home games in that time, the other six wins have all been by 1 or 2 goals. Wales have been hammered in some away games though - losing 6-1 in Serbia and 4-1 in Switzerland. I think Wales could surprise here and might be value on the handicap (Wales +2AH is available at 1.93 with Pinnacle), but Belgium have so much class, I'm going to steer clear of this one. No bet

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OK - good point Jase. I think I know what you mean. But I'm talking about a team which has qualified (say Belgium for example off the top of my head) versus one who has no chance (Wales)' date=' rather than an already-qualified team against one who needs a result.[/quote'] That's what I meant tbh.... Why would Wales be a good bet now away to Belgium? That sort of thinking usually pushes the price up creating value on the home side IMO.

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Re: World Cup Europe Qualification > Tuesday October 15th Bulgaria-Czech Rep. should be over 2.5. Bulgaria misses a few key defensive players who are suspended - central defender Bodurov (red card vs Armenia), holding midfielder Dyakov (red card), full-back Minev (injury). All of them are regulars. Bulgaria's defense looked terrible against Armenia and even against Malta a month ago (4-5 clean chances for Malta and a goal for them). Bulgaria has slim chances to qualify for play-offs, but to do that, they need to win by 3 goals margin today. Coach Penev declared at press-conference that "the team is going to take more risks than normally today". I don't think they will have any realistic chance to do so, but they will try to play entertaining football for the 30,000 crowd expected on the stands. It is important to note that Bulgarian defense is not good, but so far in the qualifiers it has been protected by the over-defensive tactics, chosen by Penev. It is curious to see how the defense will perform when they are not over-protected from the midfield. I am sure the Czechs will score at least once. Czech Republic changed their coach and this should provide some positive effect on the team at least in the short run. I expect them to play relaxed and open football. They already had one game under new coach - a very good 4:1 win over Malta. Indeed, not a strong opponent, but still very few teams in the last years have managed to score 4 goals in Malta. The Czech should continue their attacking approach now that they have nothing to lose. Over 2.25 @ 1.82 (SBO)

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Re: World Cup Europe Qualification > Tuesday October 15th Hungary -3 @ 17/20 Betway Think the odds are too low to take this bet aidymac Hungary were really poor against Holland. And the coach is sacked after this match, romania and Turkey both have to loose tonight. Then Hungary have chance to get the second place. Probarly Hungary will win but taking them on the -3 on these odds not a great value bet if you ask me.

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Re: World Cup Europe Qualification > Tuesday October 15th

Group A Belgium v Wales 20.00 Belgium have won the group in fine style and Wales have disappointed once again. But Belgium rarely thrash teams at home. They've only beaten Kazakhstan at home by more than 2 goals in the last 2 years. Although they've won 7 and drawn 3 home games in that time, the other six wins have all been by 1 or 2 goals. Wales have been hammered in some away games though - losing 6-1 in Serbia and 4-1 in Switzerland. I think Wales could surprise here and might be value on the handicap (Wales +2AH is available at 1.93 with Pinnacle), but Belgium have so much class, I'm going to steer clear of this one. No bet
Wales are clueless up-front on the road and now should be even worse with several important players out, including Bale. They barely created any opportunity against Belgium in the first leg. They scored once in Belgrade - a free-kick from Bale, and didn't approach the goal for the rest of the match. Couldn't create any danger in Croatia, as well as against Serbia at home. Wales is terribly short in creativity and power up-front at the moment. Against them there is one of the teams with best defenses in the world. They conceded just three goals so far, as far as I remember - 2 from Croatia and 1 from Serbia. Belgium to win to nil @ 1.66 (bet 365) is very good option. Also Belgium -2 AH @ 2.05 is very good bet, and I think in the worst case it will be void. I personally don't see any value in Wales +2AH, because their defense has been terrible throughout the qualifiers and Ashley Williams out doesn't help much. Belgium didn't trash any of the opponents so far, but to be honest, most of their score-lines were very surprising and undeserved, as Belgium created countless clear-cut chances in these games and realistically a few of these matches should have finished with a thrashing.

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Re: World Cup Europe Qualification > Tuesday October 15th

Group B : Italy Q , Bulgaria 13, Denmark 13, Czech 12 The Bulgaria v Czech Rep is a great betting opportunity. Both teams have to win this to get into head-2-head 2 game qualifying. 14 points will not do it. A draw is no good for either team, and they will each have to setup and play to win. Bet365 over 2.5 is 43/40, while the home win for Bulgaria is 13/10 bet365 I don't know much about either team, just that their motivation and desire to win is massive. Any help or insights here are appreciated.
I don't think the Czech team can qualify as they would be the lowest ranked second place team.

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Re: World Cup Europe Qualification > Tuesday October 15th

I don't think the Czech team can qualify as they would be the lowest ranked second place team.
Yes, that point has already been made ...

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Re: World Cup Europe Qualification > Tuesday October 15th Group H England v Poland 20.00 There's a good article on the back page of the Racing Post this morning looking back at previous crunch England qualifying games where they were similar short odds to win. Apparently in October 2001, England were 1/5 to beat Greece at Old Trafford - but needed a late Beckham free kick to draw 2-2 when it looked as though they would lose. In November 2007, England were 4/7 to beat Croatia, but lost 3-2 and failed to qualify for Euro 2008. The Racing Post later conclude that England will win, but add that Poland could be 'popular' on the 2 goal Asian handicap, implying some sort of value there, although tipping Rooney first scorer at 9-2 as their recommended bet. I don't think Poland are particularly good, but how good are England? More importantly, how much better than Poland are England? Until last Friday's impressive 4-1 thrashing of Montenegro, England's only wins in the qualifiers had been against Moldova and San Marino. Poland lost narrowly in Ukraine to end their own hopes. England';s Head to head record against Poland at Wembley is a story of narrow England wins - 2-1 3-1 2-1 England's recent home record is pretty impressive - 6 wins and 2 draws since Euro 2012. In the same period, Poland have only won away in San Marino, losing in Estonia, Ireland and Ukraine and drawing in Montenegro and Moldova. Poland will be well supported at Wembley tonight according to the media - will that work for or against their team? Will their fans' support encourage then to play too openly giving the superior England attackers more space than they would normally? Or will it give them a lift and help them get a good result? The price on the Poland +2 AH handicap is big enough to make it worth considering I think - Poland +2AH 1.72 Ladbrokes

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Re: World Cup Europe Qualification > Tuesday October 15th SWEDEN - GERMANY PREVIEW Sweden, with their 20 point haul, can play hosts for this final qualifying game without any pressure whatsoever. Last week's win over Austria, or turnaround to be more correct, cemented their second place finish in the group. Today's opponents Germany are five points in front, and as Sweden can't overtake them, they have nothing to play for but prestige. Besides that, the hosts will be missing one important player, or it might be better to say crucial foward. Zlatan Ibrahimovic, their biggest star, is suspended for the match. First choice keeper Isaksson and defender Lustig have missed the last training session due to injury, and they probably won't play today. We have some doubts regarding the starting 11, and I still haven't made a final decision. We will miss Zlatan, he's a world class player. We can play the same as we have we played so far, but without him it will be a lot harder - coach Erik Hamren said, before commenting on the match against the heavily favoured German side: - We went into the matches against Germany in Berlin and Austria on Friday a bit too cautiously. However, I would be naive if I thought that we will see more of the ball than Germany today. Germany secured top spot in the group with a convincing win against Ireland. They have won every match but one, the amazing draw against Sweden, when they were 4-0 up, only for the game to finish 4-4. Low had this to say about today's game: - We don't want to experiment too much in our final qualifying match. The team are on a good run and we want to keep it going. We don't want to get even for the Berlin game, that's water under the bridge for us. The players have learned from that experience, and that's the most important thing. They will still be missing almost all of their Dortmund contigent, and forwards Klose and Gomez as well, but Schweinsteiger is ready to make his 100th national team appearance. Low is about to sign a new contract, which would run until 2016, so it seems that the German FA are going to place their trust in him for another qualifying cycle. BETTING PREVIEW Basing on this Betprepare preview everything is clear..Sweden will be without Ibrahimovic and Lustig and that will be a huge handicap for them since it’s their best striker and standard, most experienced defender who are missing this match. On the other hand Germany wants revenge for that 4-4 result back in Germany and Low already mentioned that he has no intention of experimenting so I expect away team to be at their best. Bet: 2 Odds: 1.75

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Re: World Cup Europe Qualification > Tuesday October 15th Bulgaria to win @ 2.25 bet365 I am going to once again back the Bulgarian national team in a game which is basically without any meaning. Bulgaria does have some chances to get to the play-offs but we should rely on a lot of luck in the other games and for me this is causa perduta. Anyway, the moral in the team is really high and if not for the playoffs, the team would like to win it for the fans and all those people who are going to fill the national stadium which is expected to be full with over 30 000 tickets sold already. The atmosphere here is great and people are gathering to support this young team which has almost done the impossible. The Czechs didn't have decent qualifications and are now without any chance for going further. The coach has said will not be seeking a result in this game but rather check the qualities of his players having in mind the future games of the team. I do not expect goal fest as most people do but am quite sure we will have our chances and with some luck score some goals.

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Re: World Cup Europe Qualification > Tuesday October 15th Tonight's UK TV previews: 3pts England vs Poland - Both teams to score 6/4 Boylesports I think England will win here but there could be one or two dangerous moments along the way. England will be without a genuine right back with injuries and suspensions hurting them so there is an area for Poland to attack. England looked good in attack on Friday night and I expect that to be the case here so just like in the reverse fixture in this both teams to score looks good to me. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/england-vs-poland-betting-both-sides-can-net-as-england-look-to-seal-place-in-brazil 3pts Scotland to beat Croatia 5/2 Bet365 Scotland won the reverse fixture in Croatia and with the visitors with more than an eye on their playoff now it could be that Scotland win this one too. They probably have more motivation going into this match as the higher up the group they finish the better their draw will be for the European Championship qualifiers so at a big price I’ll take the Scots to end their campaign with a win. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/scotland-vs-croatia-betting-scotland-can-pick-up-a-win-to-end-their-campaign 4pts Belgium (-2) to beat Wales Evs Paddy Power It is hard to see Belgium not winning this match even without anything on the game. They have bags of talent at the minute and even without Fellaini and Benteke they have plenty of goals in them in the form of Lukaku, Hazard and Mirallas. Wales will give this a go but could be opened up at will by the quality Belgium possess. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/belgium-vs-wales-betting-belgians-can-celebrate-qualifying-for-the-world-cup-in-style 3pts Rep of Ire (-1) to beat Kazakhstan 1.95 Boylesports This should be plain sailing for Ireland whether Robbie Keane plays or he doesn’t. Although this hasn’t been the best campaign for the boys in green they remain a level above the likes of Kazakhstan so this should be a chance to regain a bit of confidence and momentum to begin the Euro 2016 qualifiers with next year. Kazakhstan are game but very much limited so it is Ireland for me here. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/republic-of-ireland-vs-kazakhstan-betting-ireland-can-round-off-a-poor-campaign-with-an-easy-win 4pts Spain vs Georgia - Under 3.5 goals 10/11 Ladbrokes The result is more important for Spain here than looking good and scoring a barrel load of goals. They won’t care if they have to grind out a 1-0 or even a draw so long as they get the result which sees them to Brazil. With the emphasis on the result rather than the performance the 10/11 on under 3.5 goals looks particularly good to me, especially having seen Spain’s struggles on Friday and the tightness of the reverse fixture here. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/spain-vs-georgia-betting-emphasis-on-the-result-can-lead-to-fewer-goals-

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Re: World Cup Europe Qualification > Tuesday October 15th Group I France v Finland 20.00 France stand an outside chance of overtaking Spain and winning the group if they win tonight and Spain lose at home to Georgia. The latter would be a shock, but these results do sometimes happen. France will in in any case be going for the win here. It's likely that they will win but it could be close. France beat both Belarus and Georgia 3-1 at home. Finland managed a 1-1 draw in Spain, drew in Belarus and won 1-0 in Georgia. France thrased Australia 6-0 in friendly on Friday, but by all accounts Australia were poor, and they sacked their coach following that result. I think Finland will be tougher opponents. If France hear that Spain are winning, their performance might suffer, knowing that they are going to finish second anyway (although in the unlikely event that Spain are losing it would have the opposite effect!!). Value on Finland here I think - Finland +2AH 1.96 sbobet

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Group H England v Poland 20.00 There's a good article on the back page of the Racing Post this morning looking back at previous crunch England qualifying games where they were similar short odds to win. Apparently in October 2001, England were 1/5 to beat Greece at Old Trafford - but needed a late Beckham free kick to draw 2-2 when it looked as though they would lose. In November 2007, England were 4/7 to beat Croatia, but lost 3-2 and failed to qualify for Euro 2008. The Racing Post later conclude that England will win, but add that Poland could be 'popular' on the 2 goal Asian handicap, implying some sort of value there, although tipping Rooney first scorer at 9-2 as their recommended bet. I don't think Poland are particularly good, but how good are England? More importantly, how much better than Poland are England? Until last Friday's impressive 4-1 thrashing of Montenegro, England's only wins in the qualifiers had been against Moldova and San Marino. Poland lost narrowly in Ukraine to end their own hopes. England';s Head to head record against Poland at Wembley is a story of narrow England wins - 2-1 3-1 2-1 England's recent home record is pretty impressive - 6 wins and 2 draws since Euro 2012. In the same period, Poland have only won away in San Marino, losing in Estonia, Ireland and Ukraine and drawing in Montenegro and Moldova. Poland will be well supported at Wembley tonight according to the media - will that work for or against their team? Will their fans' support encourage then to play too openly giving the superior England attackers more space than they would normally? Or will it give them a lift and help them get a good result? The price on the Poland +2 AH handicap is big enough to make it worth considering I think - Poland +2AH 1.72 Ladbrokes
You could use this exact write-up for BTTS and over 2.5 goals too. Over 2.5 goals is probably the better of the two as if this game is 1-1 then surely England will be going all out for the 3rd goal?! Sent from my GT-I9100 using PL Forum

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Re: World Cup Europe Qualification > Tuesday October 15th Lewandowski to score @ 3.25 bwin A self-absorbed player like him, having all of England's eyes on him and playing in a sold-out Wembley, he just has to show 100% effort in this game. Price is good enough for a goalscorer of his class. He also has to know there is a lot of criticism in Poland because he doesn't play nearly as well as he does for Dortmund (of course he plays with better players there). The perfect game to show that the Polish press is wrong about him. ;)

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Re: World Cup Europe Qualification > Tuesday October 15th Group I Spain v Georgia 20.00 These are two very defensive teams (but there the comparison probably ends of course). Spain have averaged 2.1 goals per game in the qualifiers, and Georgia 1.6 goals per game. Spain have the insurance that they only need a draw tonight to qualify - and that is assuming that France beat Finland at home (if France don't beat Finland, Spain could lose here and still top the group). I think Spain will play their normal patient game, passing the ball all around the pitch, eventually working openings and looking to exploit those. It all spells a low-scoring game to me, with value on 'unders' and Georgia I think. Ultimately, if Spain get a draw and qualify they will be very happy - Georgia +3AH 2.01 Pinnacle

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Re: World Cup Europe Qualification > Tuesday October 15th

You could use this exact write-up for BTTS and over 2.5 goals too. Over 2.5 goals is probably the better of the two as if this game is 1-1 then surely England will be going all out for the 3rd goal?! Sent from my GT-I9100 using PL Forum
Personally, I try to make bets on teams, not goals or both to score. I just think I'm better at judging the value that way. The more factors there are involved, the more complicated things get - what if Team A scores? what if B equalises? So to keep things simple for me, I just try to stick to Team bets, not goal bets. I'm not sure which is better value, Poland on the handicap, both to score or over 2.5 goals. But I'm not that concerned - as I said I just try to stick to bets on teams where I can see value. Hope that makes sense.

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Re: World Cup Europe Qualification > Tuesday October 15th Ive been reading this and watching at the ranking tables for about an hour, so now im just summing it up Croatia wont win today in Scotland - DNB on Scotland looks impressive. I think Bulgaria (besides all of that stuff that has been said) at the end of the day will win or at least draw today againt Checzs. Denmark will brutally destroy Malta. Iceland will play a draw at least againt Norway, i would and will take a clean win. Games like Turkey - Netherlands, Switzerland - Slovenia, Belgium - Wales, i recommend leave alone, because it looks like lot of shit can happen here. I also recommend to not touch these over/under lines (do it only in live betting), becouse lets be real, you never know how the flow of the game will go until you actually see it.

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Re: World Cup Europe Qualification > Tuesday October 15th

You are mostly wrong. Only Czech can't qualify. ie if Turkey lose 2-0 to Netherlands and Bulgaria win 2-0 and Romania lose, Bulgaria have a better record.
better than Turkey, yes, but Turkey will most likely not stay 2nd if they lose. So Bulgaria would need Estonia to beat Romania and Hungary not to win versus Andorra as well.

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Re: World Cup Europe Qualification > Tuesday October 15th

Ive been reading this and watching at the ranking tables for about an hour, so now im just summing it up Croatia wont win today in Scotland - DNB on Scotland looks impressive. I think Bulgaria (besides all of that stuff that has been said) at the end of the day will win or at least draw today againt Checzs. Denmark will brutally destroy Malta. Iceland will play a draw at least againt Norway, i would and will take a clean win. Games like Turkey - Netherlands, Switzerland - Slovenia, Belgium - Wales, i recommend leave alone, because it looks like lot of shit can happen here. I also recommend to not touch these over/under lines (do it only in live betting), becouse lets be real, you never know how the flow of the game will go until you actually see it.
Interesting predictions, but the value of any bet depends on the odds offered, not just predicting an outcome.

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Re: World Cup Europe Qualification > Tuesday October 15th

Van Gaal has promised united and will keep persie on the bench and not play him due to a fractured toe, they took the gamble against hungary but wont be taking the risk against turkey. Please do your research before quoting me that he will be playing. My sources are turkeys biggest footballing website and broadcaster, LigTV.
We will see whether he plays or not. Won't be the first time Turkish media has got it wrong

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Re: World Cup Europe Qualification > Tuesday October 15th Romania accepts Estonia at home and will most probably take the three points so if Turkey loses Romania are most probably in the play-offs. The only way we (Bulgaria) or Denmark to qualify is if Slovenia draws and Iceland loses. Good luck to our boys but it is very difficult. It is a must win for Bosnia. This is the biggest game in history for that small country and players like Dzeko, Misimovic and Ibisevic must do their best against Lithuania who fight for nothing. Bosnia -1 AH is the bet of the week for me. Good luck

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Re: World Cup Europe Qualification > Tuesday October 15th

Trick is to place it in a double, like I did. The limit is then non-existent :D Bosnia and Ukraine to nil @ 1.83 10pts England and Ukraine to nil : 1.88 10pts
Is that a trick? I would be happy to lay Poland failing to score at Wembley :-)

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Re: World Cup Europe Qualification > Tuesday October 15th Czech lineup against Bulgaria: Cech - Rajtoral, Mazuch, Suchy, Kadlec - Dockal, Hubschman, Jiracek, Plasil - Kozak, Kadlec. Not exactly goal machine - be careful with over 2.5 :)

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Re: World Cup Europe Qualification > Tuesday October 15th Lol the turkish media confirmed line up 18u59 Opstelling Nederland: Cillessen; Janmaat, Vlaar, Martins Indi, Blind; Clasie, Sneijder, Fer; Robben, Van Persie, Lens.

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Re: World Cup Europe Qualification > Tuesday October 15th Denmark - Malta Malta AH +3.5, 1.825 (Bet365) As many others, i don't have high thoughts about our national team. Our chances to qualify is above 1 to 31.734, as it relies on so many other results.. Last match Italy crashed all hope for us with a late equaliser, therefore making our chance absolutely minimal. Bendtner made his return here with 2 goals, but he won't participate in this one due to a yellow card he got by taking his shirt off. We have absolutely no one to rely on, making our goals.. who are supposed to score here? Last match against malta, we were lucky getting a 2-1 result, with an own goal. I can't honestly remember the last time we have scored this many goals in a match, and even though we have plenty of defensive talent, they always mess it up down there. The thing about these matches against poorer sides, is that we usually manage to scrape a poor win, despite horrible play. Personally i think its hillarious to watch us against a defensive minded team, because Denmark has no idea how to set up an attack. The fact that a Denmark win returns 1.03 is absolutely laughable in my opinion, as we have seen plenty of times how they mess up. Our biggest talent Eriksen has barely ever shined on our team, so something is definetely missing to get that last touch. I don't really think anyone in Denmark cares about this match, and Denmark never puts their act together against teams like these, and seems to not find any motivation at all. Our coach will probably also try a new thing or two.. I really feel like throwing every single thing i own on this bet because of the huge handicap, but they could always surprise i guess.. i HIGHLY doubt it though.

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Re: World Cup Europe Qualification > Tuesday October 15th

Is that a trick? I would be happy to lay Poland failing to score at Wembley :-)
Not a trick, just a way to get around their restriction placed on single bets.

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