Alex_B Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 Re: The Skrill Premier > Tuesday October 8th Trust me when it comes to non league football they really don't. Sent from my GT-I8190N using PL Forum ok...so please explain what happened here and how they knew it in advance, and all of us lost money...they´re pros my friend... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoMiNuS Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 Re: The Skrill Premier > Tuesday October 8th ok...so please explain what happened here and how they knew it in advance' date=' and all of us lost money...they´re pros my friend...[/quote'] mate, strange results happen all the time and this doesn't mean bookies are behind it - yes there was a strange move in odds but this doesn't mean anything, just go with it and make them pay the next time :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 ok...so please explain what happened here and how they knew it in advance' date=' and all of us lost money...they´re pros my friend...[/quote'] No one knows the result beforehand and like I say Chester managed one shot the whole game. It's betting and you can't win them all but over the season I would back myself to make a profit. Sent from my GT-I8190N using PL Forum Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northwestpunter Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 Re: The Skrill Premier > Tuesday October 8th I don't normally contribute to this thread - but feel I have to back up Ships and addpea. I worked as a football odds-compiler for over 15 years for 3 of the major UK bookmakers. Trust me.......Ships and addpea know far more about non-league football than any odds-compiler I have ever worked with or come across! At most Firms it is the most fresh faced junior compiler who is tasked with pricing up non-league football - none of them ever watch any of the games, most of them don't read the match reports, and they usually spend just an hour or so a week pricing the games up by just taking a quick look at the league tables and recent results! Yes bookies are professionals, but most of them spend little time studying non-league football. I worked for the Tote, Betfred and IG Index and I know that to be true! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allthethings Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 Re: The Skrill Premier > Tuesday October 8th What a crazy night... profitable thanks to Gateshead but the other results are really crazy Kiddies turned out to be a good pick even though I didn't risk it.. couldn't see the game but the result is pretty impressive and the game must have been really nervous with all those red cards. FGR may be a good laying material for the next round as well with those red cards Since I started keeping track a month ago, teams that have two men (or three) sent off do surprisingly well in their next match if it's at home...and with much better odds because so many people overreact to team news. I have a thread in Systems & Strategy about it, though I haven't updated in a long while. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shipsupstreets Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Re: The Skrill Premier > Tuesday October 8th Yes..they know a LOT more than we do..... 0-1 Which part of 'it's not a match I'll be trading on' don't you understand? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shipsupstreets Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Re: The Skrill Premier > Tuesday October 8th Poor night for me on the spreads with Halifax's second not arriving until too late. Great calls on Gateshead by Cully, Addpea and Dominus - with Dominus bagging Gateshead -1 as well. Good calls also on Kidderminster by Dominus and Neubs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoFear Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Re: The Skrill Premier > Tuesday October 8th what the hell is wrong with people. Yes, the results were not what we expected but haven't you guys (who are complaining) heard of variance. Stay around long enough and u will come out ahead. It's not like 1000/1 shots won. I lost money on these game as as well btw, but you cant win them all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted October 9, 2013 Author Share Posted October 9, 2013 Re: The Skrill Premier > Tuesday October 8th ok...so please explain what happened here and how they knew it in advance' date=' and all of us lost money...they´re pros my friend...[/quote'] You are here since 2008, you should know better. If you have followed the guys on the non league forum the past two or three years you would know what value is all about. Let's get one thing clear, value does not mean a huge strike rate. Value means you will more than likely be ahead in the long run, and the key words are "long run".. There is no value to be found in the premier league or the best leagues in the world because they are over-bet, but bookies are not robots they do make odds compiling mistakes, especially in the non league where you need to be extremely specialised to know the players, the clubs and everything else. Media gives us all the knowledge we need to know on the top leagues, you don't have that with non-league. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allthethings Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Re: The Skrill Premier > Tuesday October 8th You are here since 2008, you should know better. If you have followed the guys on the non league forum the past two or three years you would know what value is all about. Let's get one thing clear, value does not mean a huge strike rate. Value means you will more than likely be ahead in the long run, and the key words are "long run".. There is no value to be found in the premier league or the best leagues in the world because they are over-bet, but bookies are not robots they do make odds compiling mistakes, especially in the non league where you need to be extremely specialised to know the players, the clubs and everything else. Media gives us all the knowledge we need to know on the top leagues, you don't have that with non-league. I would disagree here. It's the fact that they're overbet that brings value...week after week matches in England in particular go off at 6/1 for the underdog because all the supporters come out of the woodwork to bet up Liverpool, for example. It's the same thing here in the US with the NFL and the Cowboys, Packers, Gaints and the overs. It creates tremendous value on the other side. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted October 9, 2013 Author Share Posted October 9, 2013 Re: The Skrill Premier > Tuesday October 8th I would disagree here. It's the fact that they're overbet that brings value...week after week matches in England in particular go off at 6/1 for the underdog because all the supporters come out of the woodwork to bet up Liverpool' date=' for example. It's the same thing here in the US with the NFL and the Cowboys, Packers, Gaints and the overs. It creates tremendous value on the other side.[/quote'] Well I do know that some of the best odds-compilers (mathematicians) in the world compile the odds for the likes of the Premier League, and in the English Premier League you will struggle to find value. Maybe in your opinion a selection will be value, but 99 times out of 100 these guys get the odds spot on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Re: The Skrill Premier > Tuesday October 8th If the Billericay chairman had his way then most non-league betting would be banned. http://www.thisistotalessex.co.uk/betting-matches/story-19907915-detail/story.html#axzz2hEJtKTvc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shipsupstreets Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Re: The Skrill Premier > Tuesday October 8th If the Billericay chairman had his way then most non-league betting would be banned. http://www.thisistotalessex.co.uk/betting-matches/story-19907915-detail/story.html#axzz2hEJtKTvc The scenario he suggests is certainly a plausible one - high-rolling Malaysians waiting for the prices to come out from UK bookies then pricing them up themselves. And I must commend his investigative powers in finding out the amounts punted. But it's hardly beyond the capabilities of a canny Malaysian bookie to get someone to price up the matches for them, and for the whole cycle to start again. In fact - and in anticipation of the FA banning non-league gambling - if any Malaysian bookies are reading this, I will happily consider commissions for pricing up matches down to Step 4 plus the Combined Counties, the North East Counties and selected league cups. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alex_B Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Re: The Skrill Premier > Tuesday October 8th You are here since 2008, you should know better. If you have followed the guys on the non league forum the past two or three years you would know what value is all about. Let's get one thing clear, value does not mean a huge strike rate. Value means you will more than likely be ahead in the long run, and the key words are "long run".. There is no value to be found in the premier league or the best leagues in the world because they are over-bet, but bookies are not robots they do make odds compiling mistakes, especially in the non league where you need to be extremely specialised to know the players, the clubs and everything else. Media gives us all the knowledge we need to know on the top leagues, you don't have that with non-league. That´s not the point at all of the discussion, but whatever....the point is why betting on amateur football leagues?? That´s the key...it was my last time definitely...tks for your comments anyways... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shipsupstreets Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Re: The Skrill Premier > Tuesday October 8th That´s not the point at all of the discussion' date=' but whatever....the point is why betting on amateur football leagues?? That´s the key...it was my last time definitely...tks for your comments anyways...[/quote'] The point is, a gambler who can't see value and doesn't understand value, and punts on markets he doesn't understand, isn't likely to be very successful in the long run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jase82 Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Well I do know that some of the best odds-compilers (mathematicians) in the world compile the odds for the likes of the Premier League' date=' and in the English Premier League you will struggle to find value. Maybe in your opinion a selection will be value, but 99 times out of 100 these guys get the odds spot on.[/quote'] Are we really just not putting odds compilers on a massive pedestal though? I read somewhere they have sides ranked in order of where they're likely to finish in the table and price sides up accordingly. I mean, what are the odds likely to be between Fulham V Stoke.... A chimpanzee could price up the higher leagues :lol why do you need a maths degree, especially now there are a gazillion bookies who all set their prices around each other, lead by the Asians. Probably showing my ignorance and way off topic! Sorry :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jase82 Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 That´s not the point at all of the discussion' date=' but whatever....the point is why betting on amateur football leagues?? That´s the key...it was my last time definitely...tks for your comments anyways...[/quote'] Its well known midweek in the BSP is fraught with danger, at least that was my understanding. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Re: The Skrill Premier > Tuesday October 8th Its well known midweek in the BSP is fraught with danger' date=' at least that was my understanding.[/quote'] Sadly Tuesday's do on the whole seem tough and it always annoys me when you get a nice set of fixtures like this Tuesday. At the end of the day I have to punt as I would regardless of the day and see what happens. What I will say though is that the Skrill Premier is mainly professional now and the other teams are semi-pro so to say it is amateur is very far from the truth. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allthethings Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 Re: The Skrill Premier > Tuesday October 8th Are we really just not putting odds compilers on a massive pedestal though? I read somewhere they have sides ranked in order of where they're likely to finish in the table and price sides up accordingly. I mean' date=' what are the odds likely to be between Fulham V Stoke.... A chimpanzee could price up the higher leagues :lol why do you need a maths degree, especially now there are a gazillion bookies who all set their prices around each other, lead by the Asians. Probably showing my ignorance and way off topic! Sorry :ok[/quote'] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allthethings Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 Re: The Skrill Premier > Tuesday October 8th Sadly Tuesday's do on the whole seem tough and it always annoys me when you get a nice set of fixtures like this Tuesday. At the end of the day I have to punt as I would regardless of the day and see what happens. What I will say though is that the Skrill Premier is mainly professional now and the other teams are semi-pro so to say it is amateur is very far from the truth. I've got six years of numbers now on all Skrill Prem underdogs to favorites of under 2.0, and weekday games the dogs perform better at all levels of odds, from 3.5 to 8.5...more so than the other leagues, even. Why this might be involves probably a combination of factors... a) Nighttime is an adjustment that for whatever reason the better teams can't handle b) Underdogs put in more inspired performances for whatever reason c) Better teams rotate more when theres a quick turnaround in the fixture list d) Good teams perform better at 3 pm, when it's well-known that mid-afternoon is when people get sleepy e) Underdogs' hangovers ease quicker f) luck I mean, who knows? But knowing it's true should alter your approach, if only a little. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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