Betting on under 6.5 goals, in play at odds of 1.01

[cooliyog]

Hello everyone. For the past 3 weeks I have been betting on under 6.5 goals in matches that are in play on Betfair. I started with €500 and have now reached €1000. I bet in play and wait for the market price to come down to 1.01 and then place my bet. I also o a bit of research into each of the teams (compare league positions, results of there last few games and any previous run ins they've had with each other). Although I am posting in the English Premier League forum, by betting is not restricted to this league. Before this I have never really betted at all, maybe a 2 euro here an there when there was a final on or something to make it interesting. I was just wondering if there is anyone else who uses a similar strategy with betting on 1.01 markets and what people think about this strategy in general. I stay away from betting on over .5 and betting on a team that may be 3-0 up in a game. I would also like to ask if anyone has any tips on this style of strategy and for picking out low scoring games.

[allanmac83]

Re: Betting on under 6.5 goals, in play at odds of 1.01 Sounds as if your doing well so far mate, how much you putting on your individual bets, how long you been doing your system for??

[negapo]

Re: Betting on under 6.5 goals, in play at odds of 1.01 If you are betting against an event that has a 1% chance (you think that percentage is lower and that's why you Back it at 1.01) then you have to get a huge sample in order to understand if the market is effectively miss priced. What i mean is that your balance is irrelevant unless you have a huge track record. It's a little bit like believing that you can tell when a car accident will happen by every day saying that it will not happen today. It's a improbable event so you will be right most of the times. Another thing you have to worry is that even if you really have an opportunity and you are successful at discovering events trading at 1% that have a lower probability of happening you have to protect yourself from bankruptcy. If the true probability of the event is something like 0.50% there is still a chance that the event happens 3 out of 30 times (what we call bad luck). In essence, account for bankruptcy (stakes must be relatively small), wait for a lot of bets before concluding that you have a winning system and try to understand why the odds would be miss priced (people lay the 1.01 to net their positions and maintain the 1.01 for longer than it should? people like big payouts and believe the impossible? etc.). You can have a winning system and not knowing why it is paying off (you discover by accident, you do some data mining on large datasets or you use neural networks to build a system) but it's always better to understand it. Good luck

[allanmac83]

Re: Betting on under 6.5 goals, in play at odds of 1.01 Nice piece there negapro. So basically you have to understand your system and place bets accordingly? i have been doing a under 4.5 betting for a while and must admit I'm rather strict on who my choices are when it comes to selection, take for example last nights game, Everton vs Newcastle, a lot of people would have jumped on the bet after 1 nil Everton but past meeting between these too have been goals galore and with Newcastle in the shape they are at the back it was there for a battering. thats just a example but you really have to go further into your selections and as why are they priced at that and history of teams you choose.

[negapo]

Re: Betting on under 6.5 goals, in play at odds of 1.01 Thanks allanmac83 Yes, i think you should know your hedge, but that's not very consensual and there are good arguments against it (or favoring that you don't necessarily need to know why you are winning money). I think you can take two roads in general, the systematic one, where you build rules (with or without the help of past data) and try to automate the execution and the discretionary one, where you try to find value in situations where you brain can assess a multitude of variables and identify an opportunity. There are advantages and disadvantages in both ways of trading and there are also traders that mix both dimensions. There is one particular thing that the totally discretionary road is in disadvantage (i believe): When you trade (both in sports betting or financial markets) or even when you open a business your expected profit is dependent on the number of opportunities you encounter and the value that they provide. When you account for luck you get to the conclusion that you rather have a lot of opportunities with small value than few opportunities with big value. An example: You get to back Real Madrid to win the game at odds of 2.0 against the team that is in last. You compute that the fair odds will be something like 1.30 so this is a chance in a lifetime. What do you do, how much do you bet? If you follow your guts or something like the Kelly Criterion you will find out that you should not stake too much because Real Madrid can still end not winning (in 23% of the times), so you can only grab in safety a little amount of this huge opportunity. Id rather have a way of identifying a lot of small imbalances and take them all with small stakes. And to find a lot of opportunities a human is not a good thing, it will get tired, it will get fed up and risk a lot more than is should (i believe that poker players can relate with this). That are also a lot of limitations in going the totally systematic way. In essence, don't risk too much, try to put your thoughts and ideas into rules if you can (at least parts of it) and try to get rid of luck (bad and good). That's what i try to follow (Sorry cooliyog, I don't want to hijack the thread)

[cooliyog]

Re: Betting on under 6.5 goals, in play at odds of 1.01 I've made roughly 70-100 euro's consecutively since I got to the 1000. I started about 4 weeks ago. It took me 3 weeks to work up to the 1000 but I wasn't putting the whole stake on at a time. Now I bet on 1.01's with the full 1000 I get a few bets a day. I also look for value. For example I have under 6.5 in the City match which looks like its gona come in to get 30 euro. I had under 6.5 in the Newcastle Everton game which nearly gave me a heart attack! But I came away with 30 Euro. The closest any of the bets have come to losing has been by 2 goals. A match with 7 goals is unlikely to begin with so you just have to try pick one and hope for the best. I've also learned to stay away from under 19s and under 21. Sometime the under 6.5 is offered at 1.01 even up to the second half only for 5 goals to be scored in one half. I think I can keep this up for another good while if I play my cards right everything I make after the 1000 is profit so I've made around 500 in money I can keep, the other 500 is used with the original 500 to make at least a 10er a game. I must say it is nail biting stuff! Don't think I have the heart for it

[Peyton Manning]

Re: Betting on under 6.5 goals, in play at odds of 1.01 French Ligue 1 matches usually are low scoring as are both Airtricity Leagues (League of Ireland), a quick question though, if you are just looking for 1 % profit why not back under 6.5 goals at 1.05 pre match and lay it at 1.03-1.04 after a couple of minutes, or alternatively, back under x goals markets a minute or two after a goal and lay it a couple of minutes after placing your bet?

[FINKY1]

Re: Betting on under 6.5 goals, in play at odds of 1.01 1000 to win 10 thats a hundred bets to win 1000 all you need is one bad run to lose 1000 idont think i would have the nerve i quit now and well done

[jammo]

Super stuff would like to keep an eye on this thread as this is similar to the strategy I'm taking Sent from my HTC One X+ using PL Forum

[paparainbow]

Re: Betting on under 6.5 goals, in play at odds of 1.01 keep in mind that bookies want those kind of bets. they dont care even if they receive 1000000 euros in 1.01 odds. also keep in mind that most of the times odds with overound that are less than 1.00, are intentionally boosted uptp 1.01 in order to attract players as your self. Last but not least, keep in mind that accordint to big number law, an outcome that has 99% of being succesfull will be 99 out of 100 times. If you place the same bet 100 times, and you actually loose one, then you are going to loose probably what you have earned previously. Imagine now that the one single loose bet happens before you actually manage to win from the other similar bets you probably have placed. Unless you consider this bet a value bet... i dont see any point in risking 1000 euros to win 10....