NFL week 4 picks

[mcege]

Rams vs. 49ers Despite being out of any post season ambitions, Rams had beaten teams like 49ers, Seahawks, Redskins and Ravens at home, last season. They played couple times with 49ers and didn’t lose neither of them. Despite not having a reliable running back, ’13 Rams team is definitely a better version of last season. The transactions made during the summer had positive effects, as expected. QB S.Bradford has more reliable targets, he has a much better O-Line and has couple more explosive receivers, compared to last season. People has the tendency to think like, no team with calibre of 49ers will not lose 3 straight times. It’s not a totally misguided thought, but this is a team scored only 10 points in last 2 games, and one of those games was at home against a woeful Colts’ defense. Kaep played two consecutive horrible games, he got sacked almost 3 times per game this season and he seems to struggle because of receiver shortage. 49ers turned the ball 4 times more then its opponents, it’s obvious they’re not clicking right now, despite I believe they’ll eventually get better and will be thereabouts at the end of the season. 49ers won 3 times at St.Louis in last 5 season, but those wins were against 2-14, 1-15 and 2-14 Rams teams. Rams is returning home after couple games on the road, in last couple seasons they became a team hard to crack at home and they’ll face a 49ers team with numerous problems, which can’t get handled in a short week. I can’t speculate about a winner, but I believe Rams will keep this very close at least, on home turf. Rams(+3) 3/10 @1.971

[kevshat]

Re: NFL week 4 picks Thursday night preview: 4pts Under 42pts 1.95 Betfred San Francisco have looked unconvincing so far this season, particularly on offense, but in fairness to them it is still tough to throw on them so unless St Louis can establish a run game then I would expect the home side to struggle. Given San Francisco’s struggles on offense themselves I think this one could be a low scoring, defensive battle and one where I don’t think we’ll see more than 42pts. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/san-francisco-49ers--st-louis-rams-betting-stuttering-offenses-can-provide-low-scoring-nfc-west-tussle

[Abyss]

Re: NFL week 4 picks Usually i only read here and press the thanks button, becouse you guys are really good on what you are doing. I have a wonder in the game between NY vs Kansas. I did see NY last game (against Carolina) and they did loose without taking any points. NY Giants comming to this game with 3 loose and Kansas with 3 wins.

Dallas - NY 36-31 NY - Denver 23-41 Carolina - NY 38-0

Jacksonville - Kansas 2 - 28 Kansas - Dallas 16-17 Philadelphia - Kansas 16-26

The betting sites gives a HCP line on -4 for Kansas @ 1.9x. So my question is: Isnt that line a good bet in this game? As i said before im only like to watch this sport but not so good on the players or so

[mcege]

Re: NFL week 4 picks Bills vs. Ravens What did Bills do, so far? They had a brave loss against offensively disharmonious Pats in home opener, then they had beaten Panthers, with a clutch display. But, Panthers lost couple members of already depleted secondary and Bills got lucky with a late interference call. Then, they lost couple more starters against Jets and couldn’t be a factor in the game, despite Jets broke franchise records for number of penalties and penalty yards. Bills will probably miss third best defensive back and they already miss the top two defensive backs of them and their most explosive offensive players had been through minor injuries, throughout the week, as well. Ravens, despite leading until the mid of third quarter, get humiliated in season opener in Mile High, then bounced back with an ugly win against Browns and they thrashed contender Texans, without Ray Rice. Despite the departures of R.Lewis and E.Reed, they might’ve lost some dressing room presence, but as T.Suggs and H.Ngata take front steps after mediocre seasons, Ravens even has a better stop unit. They lack play makers in the offensive end, but I believe J.Flacco will still have sufficient amount of reliable targets to destroy Bills’ depleted secondary, which let rookie G.Smith to record 331 passing yards. Bills is still a team expects solid production from numerous rookies, but I don’t believe Ravens is a good fit for fulfilling such expectation. Bills might keep this close, but Ravens should close this game around the middle of last quarter. Ravens(-3) 3/10 @1.952 Chiefs vs. Giants To trust a team is being led by A.Smith to cover such spreads might not sound wise, but Giants got humiliated against a team missing tons of starters. It was a game after the death of brother of head coach T.Coughlin and that was also the time, when most of people had been crossed Giants out. I was definitely expecting a much better game, but they seemed not to care at all. They start 0-3 and playoffs are almost out of discussion, already. They don’t have a solid running back, since D.Wilson project had been screwed up in just couple weeks and they will not have lead run blocker, FB H.Hynoski, in addition to couple other starters, who’ll miss this game. I expect Chiefs to have its own issues throughout the season, but they started 3-0 with a new coaching staff, new front office structure and a new QB. Despite A.Smith’s inability to throw deep, they still have a balanced offense, “ok” pass protection and bunch of play makers. On the defensive end, this Chiefs team is a beast, their opponents turned the ball over for 9 times in 3 games, despite having a relatively easy schedule, they allowed 11.333 points per game. People may expect Giants to bounce back at some point, but you can look from some another angle, as 3-0 Chiefs team returns to home after an away win, so I can’t give psychological edge to any side. What I see is the team with uncomparably much better current form plays at home, and favoured only 4 points against a team, which lost 3 games in a row with 20+ points difference average, turned the ball 9 times more then its opponents and had 3 straight 60- rushing games. One can argue, Chiefs will be flat, since this is not a divisional game, but I don’t agree with that. They started 3-0 and they have Broncos in the division, so why loosen the ropes, instead of going to 4-0 and let Broncos to think about you... Chiefs(-4) 3/10 @1.952 Lions vs. Bears I expect a scoring fest. Lions is an usual suspect for such fests and it’s no different this season, as well. They allowed 336 yards and 23 points per game so far, and they didn’t face with a such offensively capable Bears team. Also, if Skins didn’t do everything to lose the game, those numbers could’ve been bigger. I don’t fancy their pass rushing and defensive backs, which is not good news, since J.Cutler has a great protection and tons of playmakers to exploit in open field. Bears’ defensive unit is also a bit overrated, L.Briggs and J.Peppers are having pedestrian season, so far, and stud DE H.Melton is out. All A.Dalton, C.Ponder and B.Roethlisberger had good games against Bears and M.Stafford will hurt them, for sure. All Bears’ games ended over, fairly easily, whereas if Skins were a little careful, all Lions’ games would’ve ended over, as well. Bears is more pass-first team as expected with new coach and we all know about Lions’ offensive priorities. I see a game between two of best offensive units around the league, which has not convincing defensive units, on the other hand. I would’ve set a line more closer to 50’s. Over 47.5 3/10 @1.935

[Dzontra85]

Re: NFL week 4 picks Patriots without WR Amendola and TE Gronkowski which is big blow for Tom Brady and that means that Edelman will be main reciever for that game. Atlanta with 1-2 score , they lose in first round against Saints ( IMO one of top 5 teams this season) and last week unlucky against Miami. For me this is home win [email protected]

[Rob the I ty]

Re: NFL week 4 picks Arizona/Tampa Under 38.5 @2.10 with bet365 With Josh Freeman being demoted to backup rookie QB Mike Glennon gets the start. Glennon was a good college player, but nothing spectacular he did throw 17 INTs last season in 12 games. With CB in Patrick Peterson and Tyran Mathieu the Cards boast one fo the top duos in the NFL and they should be able to handle Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams. Doug Martin will certainly carry the load and their OLine is good enough to make space for him, but the Cards will surely be keen on stopping him forcing Glennon to beat them. On the other side the Bucs defense has been very good this season, they haven't given up over 23 points and that includes games vs the Saints and Patriots. Revis on Fitzgerald will be an excellent matchup but should at least limit Fitz. Also the Cards have arguably the worst O-Line in the NFL and that is really putting pressure on Palmer. Two struggling offenses and 2 good defenses sees this one under the total.

[AGurv]

Re: NFL week 4 picks My record is really bad, either gonna win em all or lose em all Texans -2 to win 1 unit @ 5dimes Lions -3 (-105) to win 1 unit @ 5dimes Giants +3.5 to win 1 unit @ 5dimes Cowboys -1.5 to win 1 unit @ 5dimes Raiders +3 to win 1 unit @ 5dimes Falcons +3 (+105) to bet 1 unit @ 5dimes Dolphins +7 (-115) to win 1 unit @ 5dimes

[kevshat]

Re: NFL week 4 picks Sunday TV previews: 4pts Minnesota to beat Pittsburgh 5/4 Coral This is a 50/50 game between two sides who haven’t started the season well and who in truth will be done long before the postseason comes around. Given that it is a 50/50 game the value has to be with the Vikings. They arrived at the start of the week which I think is the way to go as they’ll be acclimatised to conditions and should be on top of their game. Vikings for me. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/pittsburgh-steelers--minnesota-vikings-betting-vikings-can-pick-up-their-first-win-under-the-wembley-arch 4pts San Diego vs Dallas - Over 46pts 10/11 Boylesports Neither defence here is much cop, certainly passing wise. In fact San Diego have statistically the worst pass defence in the league while Dallas have one of the better run defences so we should see the ball in the air a lot here and because of that I expect to see a few points too. Both sides have receivers who can make big plays so this has the feel of a shootout about it which should yield more than 46pts. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/dallas-cowboys--san-diego-chargers-betting-points-likely-to-come-regularly-in-san-diego 3pts New England to beat Atlanta 6/5 BetVictor If the Patriots can get to Matt Ryan then I think they have every chance in this match. Their offense is slowly getting better and they face a statistically poor Falcons pass defence in this match. It would be a boost if Amendola is able to play but even if he isn’t then the likes of Julian Edelman and Kenbrell Tompkins can both make plays. The Patriots have winning momentum behind them and look fair value for this one. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/new-england-patriots--atlanta-falcons-betting-new-england-s-defence-can-give-them-a-chance-of-winning

[Crouch Potato]

Re: NFL week 4 picks Cowboys 1-6 @ 4.50 Bet365 No team over the past 2 years have had more games decided by a score than Dallas and they've been involved in 2x 1 score games already this year. All of SD's games have been decided by a field goal and I think this will be very close, but I believe Dallas are the better team. Nice value here in a game which is more likely than most to end up tight. Atlanta 1-6 @ 4.50 Bet365 Gronkowski and Amendola are out which makes the Falcons slightly favourites. Their defense still isn't great and I can still see Brady keeping this game very close, but the Falcons have a great home record.

[danj2202]

10 pts dallas cowboys (-1) to beat san diego This is a good pass rush against an offensive line that is poor when healthy and san diego are hurt on the o line with potentially three starters injured from last week and unable to feature in this game. We have seen time and again that rivers does not respond well to a pass rush, philip rivers meet demarcus ware, i see plenty of turnovers and san diego doing little offensively in this game and a comfortable cowboys win Sent from my GT-I9505 using Tapatalk 2

[Backbencher]

Re: NFL week 4 picks Seattle @ Houston, Houston ML, @2.14 (betfair), 2/10 points The Seahawks are a different team on the road. Last season they lost to Arizona, St. Louis or Miami. Against a bad Dolphins team they were favourites with similar spread as today and lost. Houston is a very good football team, not playing as good as last year, but are 2-1 and with the weapons to win against anyone in the league. A. Johnson, Foster and Tate will play. The line should be more like pk, I'm taking Houston at home over evens here.

[allthethings]

Re: NFL week 4 picks NYG +4 Houston +2 Jax +8.5 Philly-Den under 58.5 all 5dimes Took these earlier but wasn't around to post. Record on the season 3-4 after the Rams' debacle Thursday night.

[Manila_Playa87]

Re: NFL week 4 picks Right my last bet is the falcons H2H to complete a two legger. Starting to get a bit nervous now as most people would see this as a toss of the coin game. I can't see Atlanta going 1-3, i can't see them dropping this home game that they should be up for against a team with a flattering 3-0 record. Had Gronkowski and amendola been playing then i may have stayed off this but hell am i nervous.

[mcege]

Re: NFL week 4 picks Saints vs. Dolphins Everybody knows how effective is D.Brees at Dome, but I believe bookies still get influenced by Saints' crazy offensive stats, last season. Yes, Saints is still a pass-first team, but as they have a legitimate coach in sidelines this season, they have more balanced play selection, this season. None of their games exceed 40 points, so far. I'm aware of Dolphins' missing defensive starters, but Saints will miss couple offensive starter, as well, I believe that'll even out throughout the game. Differing to the expectations, Saints seems to have perfect pass rushing, this'll be a long game for R.Tannehill, as his O-Line can't simply protect him. Dolphins conceded second most sacks, so far, and I don't expect this to get better in a noisy Dome. Saints' defensive vulnerability is run defense, they allowed 5+ yards per carry, I believe Dolphins will play run heavy game, unless an early come-behind-back situation occurs. Despite this'll be the toughest test, Dolphins still limited guys like M.Ryan and A.Luck, they have a capable stop unit and I expect them to raise the challenge occasionally at Dome, as well. I would be really surprised to see Dolphins to score 20+ points and I believe they have sufficient defensive quality and integrity to keep the scoreboard under the set total, despite couple missings. Under 48.5 3/10 @ 1.935

[kevshat]

Re: NFL week 4 picks Monday night preview: 4pts New Orleans (-6.5) to beat Miami 10/11 William Hill Given Miami’s lack of a run game this season I think they will find it hard to win here. New Orleans have the second best pass defence and they’ve played both the Falcons and the Cardinals so that’s not a false statistic. With New Orleans’ offense as powerful as we expect it to be I think this will be a fairly comfortable home win despite Miami’s impressive start to the season. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/miami-dolphins--new-orleans-saints-betting-new-orleans-can-go-4-0-for-the-season-in-style

[Backbencher]

Re: NFL week 4 picks

Seattle @ Houston, Houston ML, @2.14 (betfair), 2/10 points

Matt Schaub :puke Last week GB had that fumble on 4th&1 in the last minutes returned for a TD and yesterday that pick six :wall:wall:wall Maybe a couple of weeks off is a good idea after this 2 losses.

[Rob the I ty]

Re: NFL week 4 picks

Matt Schaub :puke Last week GB had that fumble on 4th&1 in the last minutes returned for a TD and yesterday that pick six :wall:wall:wall Maybe a couple of weeks off is a good idea after this 2 losses.

Sometimes the right pick isn't the winning pick. Those are two bad beats but solid picks IMO.

[mcege]

Re: NFL week 4 picks week 4 recap: Rams-49ers: 11-35 -3 Bills-Ravens: 23-20 -3 Chiefs-Giants: 31-7 +2.856 Lions-Bears: 40-32 +2.805 Saints-Dolphins: 38-17 -3 14W-0V-13L 81u staked +1.416u %1.748 ROI