Grex Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... ..... Reckon I'll post the selections for one more round of matches this weekend and call it a day for 2013/14. Good decision :p Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theatrain Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... 7% is better than most of us can do. Well done and keep up the good work. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted April 17, 2014 Share Posted April 17, 2014 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... A lot of systems (including mine) seem to be going through a bad patch at the moment. Perhaps it's the end-of-season unpredictability Have faith.... things will improve..... but it may be better to "suspend" until the 2014/15 season ;) I'm not sure I agree with this - but only from the perspective that Aldebaran made no mention of a cut-off point in his opening post. With your home systems, you made it very clear from the start that you had observed a noticeable decline in results towards the end of the season. That might not be the case for Aldebaran, and it's possible his results might pick up in the next few weeks. Just my two cents :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldebaran Posted April 17, 2014 Author Share Posted April 17, 2014 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... An interesting opposing opinion Torque. I hadn't ever looked to see if there were any trends associated with the run in to end of season. Gut feel is with Grex that it's been going a bit less predictable in recent weeks. However........... I've taken a look at the historic performance of the system for bets from mid-April to the end of the season and the results are interesting: Year No of bets Yield 2007 7 30% 2008 10 16% 2009 33 2% 2010 16 39% 2011 18 68% 2012 24 71% 2013 30 41% All Years 138 38% So historically this has actually been a very productive part of the season! I'll mull it over a bit more I think........ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldebaran Posted April 18, 2014 Author Share Posted April 18, 2014 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... While I'm thinking that over, there are some English league games today, so........ 18th April 2014 Wigan v Reading; under 2.5 @ 2.03 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldebaran Posted April 18, 2014 Author Share Posted April 18, 2014 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... The rest for the weekend, just unders, no overs. The Milan v Livorno match I am electing to take on under3.5 (the first such of the season) - as outlined in the introductory post to the system. 19th April 2014 Serie A; Milan v Livorno; under 3.5 @ 1.552 Serie A; Lazio v Torino; under 2.5 @ 1.952 Serie A; Udinese v Napoli; under 2.5 @ 1.892 Serie A; Fiorentina vRoma; under 2.5 @ 1.962 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldebaran Posted April 20, 2014 Author Share Posted April 20, 2014 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... 18th April 2014 Wigan v Reading; under 2.5 @ 2.03 3-0 lose Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldebaran Posted April 20, 2014 Author Share Posted April 20, 2014 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... And Saturday's Serie A results, a small profit over the weekend: 19th April 2014 Serie A; Milan v Livorno; under 3.5 @ 1.552 3-0 win Serie A; Lazio v Torino; under 2.5 @ 1.952 3-3 lose Serie A; Udinese v Napoli; under 2.5 @ 1.892 1-1 win Serie A; Fiorentina v Roma; under 2.5 @ 1.962 0-1 win Totals: 182 bets; £1820 staked; £1952.61 returned; £132.61 profit; yield 7.3% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldebaran Posted April 20, 2014 Author Share Posted April 20, 2014 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... Ok, a considered decision has been made! Let's keep going given the analysis on past season run-ins. There are likely to be 10 to 20 more picks and it is quite unlikely that all the seasons profit to date will be eroded (I know, tempting fate!) and it would seem there is a reasonable probability of adding to the total profit. So, with no disrespect to the legendary Mr Grex and in spite of the recent crap results, let's see what happens....... 21st April 2014 Championship; Ipswich v Bournemouth; under 2.5 @ 1.99 Championship; QPR v Watford; over 2.5 @ 1.854 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted April 21, 2014 Share Posted April 21, 2014 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... "legendary Mr Grex"?.... what are you smoking? :rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldebaran Posted April 22, 2014 Author Share Posted April 22, 2014 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... .... what are you smoking? :rollin Haha, yes I thought you'd like that bit! :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldebaran Posted April 22, 2014 Author Share Posted April 22, 2014 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... 21st April 2014 Championship; Ipswich v Bournemouth; under 2.5 @ 1.99 2-2 lose Championship; QPR v Watford; over 2.5 @ 1.854 2-1 win Totals: 184 bets; £1840 staked; £1971.16 returned; £131.16 profit; yield 7.1% Summary Table Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldebaran Posted April 25, 2014 Author Share Posted April 25, 2014 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... Three for Saturday: 26th April 2014 Championship; Middlesbrough v Barnsley; under 2.5 @ 2.02 Premier League; West Brom v West Ham; under 2.5 @ 2.16 Serie A; Inter v Napoli; under 2.5 @ 2.20 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldebaran Posted April 26, 2014 Author Share Posted April 26, 2014 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... And, another three for Sunday: 27th April 2014 Overs: Serie A; Sampdoria v Chievo; over 2.5 @ 2.28 Unders: Serie A; Verona v Catania; under 2.5 @ 2.37 Serie A; Atalanta v Genoa; under 2.5 @ 1.863 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldebaran Posted April 26, 2014 Author Share Posted April 26, 2014 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... A decent day today. 26th April 2014 Championship; Middlesbrough v Barnsley; under 2.5 @ 2.02 3-1 lose Premier League; West Brom v West Ham; under 2.5 @ 2.16 1-0 win Serie A; Inter v Napoli; under 2.5 @ 2.20 0-0 win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldebaran Posted April 28, 2014 Author Share Posted April 28, 2014 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... And, another good day. 27th April 2014 Overs: Serie A; Sampdoria v Chievo; over 2.5 @ 2.28 2-1 win Unders: Serie A; Verona v Catania; under 2.5 @ 2.37 4-0 lose Serie A; Atalanta v Genoa; under 2.5 @ 1.863 1-1 win Totals: 190 bets; £1900.00 staked; £2056.18 returned; £156.18 profit; 8.2% yield Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldebaran Posted April 28, 2014 Author Share Posted April 28, 2014 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... Nearly caught out by the Monday fixtures again! Tonight's Serie A match qualifies as an under, kick off in two and a half hours. 28th April 2014 Serie A; Sassuolo v Juventus; under 2.5@ 1.88 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldebaran Posted April 29, 2014 Author Share Posted April 29, 2014 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... 28th April 2014 Serie A; Sassuolo v Juventus; under 2.5@ 1.88 1-3 lose Totals 191 bets; £1910.00 staked; £2056.18 returned; £146.18 profit; yield 7.7% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldebaran Posted May 3, 2014 Author Share Posted May 3, 2014 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... Some for today. All unders and a bunch of them lunchtime kick-offs. Last day of the Championship today too and both our games in that division involve teams with something still to play for....not sure if that's a good thing or not! :hope 3rd May 2014 Championship; Reading v Burnley; under 2.5 @ 1.99 Championship; Blackpool v Charlton; under 2.5 @ 1.794 Premier League; West Ham v Tottenham; under 2.5 @ 2.28 Premier League; Aston Villa v Hull; under 2.5 @ 1.645 Premier League; Newcastle v Cardiff; under 2.5 @ 2.23 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldebaran Posted May 3, 2014 Author Share Posted May 3, 2014 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... Last day of the Championship today too and both our games in that division involve teams with something still to play for... Mind you, just looked at the league table again and Blackpool need three other results to go against them (including Doncaster away at Leicester) for them to be in any danger, so they are probably OK. Will suit them to try to keep the game tight which might just go in favour of unders. Not that this system takes into account any of that kind of analysis of course! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldebaran Posted May 3, 2014 Author Share Posted May 3, 2014 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... Not a good day really. 90th minute goals at each of the games at Blackpool and Newcastle being the difference between profit and loss today. 3rd May 2014 Championship; Reading v Burnley; under 2.5 @ 1.99 2-2 lose Championship; Blackpool v Charlton; under 2.5 @ 1.794 0-3 lose Premier League; West Ham v Tottenham; under 2.5 @ 2.28 2-0 win Premier League; Aston Villa v Hull; under 2.5 @ 1.645 3-1 lose Premier League; Newcastle v Cardiff; under 2.5 @ 2.23 3-0 lose Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldebaran Posted May 3, 2014 Author Share Posted May 3, 2014 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... On to Serie A tomorrow (none of the Premier Leagues games qualify). Let's hope for better than today. Nothing on Monday by the way, not looked at mid-week fixtures yet. 4th May 2014 Serie A; Udinese v Livorno; under 2.5 @ 2.09 Serie A; Milan v Inter; under 2.5 @ 2.16 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldebaran Posted May 6, 2014 Author Share Posted May 6, 2014 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... A small profit for the day on Sunday: 4th May 2014 Serie A; Udinese v Livorno; under 2.5 @ 2.09 5-3 lose Serie A; Milan v Inter; under 2.5 @ 2.16 1-0 win Totals ?198 bets; £1980.00 staked; £2100.58 returned; profit £120.58; yield 6.1% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldebaran Posted May 6, 2014 Author Share Posted May 6, 2014 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... Both tonight's Serie A games qualify as unders..... 6th May 2014 Serie A; Fiorentina v Sassuolo; under 2.5 @ 2.32 Serie A; Napoli v Cagliari; under 2.5 @ 2.36 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldebaran Posted May 6, 2014 Author Share Posted May 6, 2014 Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system: 200 bets, 5% yield .....and both oblige by going over! :wall 6th May 2014 Serie A; Fiorentina v Sassuolo; under 2.5 @ 2.32 3-4 lose Serie A; Napoli v Cagliari; under 2.5 @ 2.36 3-0 (with 5 mins left), lose I've had a look at the next Premier League fixtures already and it doesn't look like there is anything for the final day of the season. I'm not entirely comfortable with totally relying on Serie A to hit an amazing run over the last two rounds so I think we will finally call it a day there. There is a nice and neat(ish) £100.58 profit left in the bank from exactly 200 bets at £10 level stakes racked up from a final season yield of 5%. A profit nonetheless and there may be a few ways of trying to refine things in future. I will try to post up the table of the full seasons selections in the next few days. Thanks to everyone who has shown an interest in the system and I hope that if you have followed the selections you managed to make a little bit of cash out of them. :ok Update 21/06/14 - still to post the graph of season performance, will get round to this at some point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldebaran Posted November 3, 2017 Author Share Posted November 3, 2017 Hadn't realised it was quite so long ago that I had this system running! I see I had said I was going to post an end-of -season summary but never did in the end. Whoops. It's been busy the last few years and I've not had the time to follow a system and keep on top of it with discipline. Also, since I last posted I did set myself up to sell these over and under tips for a little while, and of course as soon as I did that it all went a bit pear shaped and that plan fairly quickly got shelved. So I'm just toying with the idea of resurrecting the system on here again. I need to go and try to dig out my rating spreadsheets if I can find them and then check results for the last couple of seasons to see if there was anything positive that might inspire me to start it back up again. Might be a week or two but watch this space....... harry_rag and vikki37 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldebaran Posted November 23, 2017 Author Share Posted November 23, 2017 Well it turns out that I had lost my old spreadsheets so had to go and rebuild them from scratch again, now with data from the last three seasons added in. What was really interesting is that my goal potential ratings generated very few selections in the seasons since I posted this system last...it almost looks like the market pre 2013/14 had been failing to account for an aspect of performance stats in setting odds (which this system exploited) but then this advantage suddenly seems to have gone from 2014/15 onwards. The return still looks reasonably good on the face of it but the number of bets has been so low that it is impossible to tell if there is still any long term value there. Last season only selected 5 bets! For such a small number of bets this really isn’t worth the effort of compiling the stats each week so after all that, this system will not be getting resurrected unfortunately. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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