Yet another Over/Under Goals System: 200 bets, +5% yield

[aldebaran]

Hello all, Having been inspired over some time be other successful systems posted to the forum (Grex, Bairn1, jtw.....) I would like to post selections from my over/under 2.5 goals system over the course of the season. This is a couple of seasons in the making and I think that there is a good likelihood that this will turn some kind of long-term profit, or at least won't lose too much! I will be backing the selections with real money but, and here is the DISCLAIMER, there is of course no guarantee of any kind of profit and losses are possible....anyone following this does so at their own risk and should only do so with money they can afford to lose etc Right, that out of the way and on to the system. I will not be revealing the actual selection criteria but will provide an overview here of the approach that I have taken in developing this. Apologies if this is a bit long-winded but I want to try to set the stall at clearly at the outset. The system is based on a fairly simple performance rating for both home and away teams. Contrary to what might seem the obvious approach, prior results and goals scored and/or conceded are not considered. Instead the idea is that the metric I have developed reflects the probability of goals being scored based on the two teams approaches to the game. The other primary criteria is the bookmakers odds. The thinking behind this is that the bookies have a pretty good model of the probability of goals being scored which underpins how they price the match. I believe that a review of the historic data backs this up. However, in any given odds range there are those matches that the bookies forecast correctly and those that they don't. This system seeks to find a criteria which can identify the subset of matches in an odds range that have a higher probability of occurring than the implied average probability for all those games in the odds range - remember, the bookies are interested in making a profit across all the markets and as such I propose that their models are fairly generalised and can afford inaccuracies. Hopefully I have developed a way to exploit this and hopefully this also makes some kind of sense! There is no fancy mathematical model behind the system and it is instead rather clunky in nature, by which I mean that I have applied the performance rating across a number of leagues and odds ranges to find if and where there are areas of consistent out-performance compared to the odds, i.e. finding value. In effect this is a manual Excel exercise in doing something probably much more clever and analytical but that is beyond my ken! I have used historic data from footballdata.co.uk and have used 5 seasons to calibrate the "model" and then a further 2 seasons to validate. I initially looked at the top 5 or 6 leagues in Europe plus all professional leagues in England and whilst there does seem to be some long term value in most of them, I have settled on the 3 leagues which have shown the strongest performance season after season and, crucially as far as I'm concerned, have demonstrated the least variability between winning and losing streaks over the calibration period. The leagues to be used are the English Premier League and Championship and Serie A in Italy. In the calibration and validation seasons none of these leagues has posted more than a single losing season and combined they have shown profit in each season. Yield does vary but on average it sits in the 10 to 12% range. I expect there to be typically 3 to 5 selections per league for each round of matches. The system starts at Round 9 of each league, once sufficient games have been played for meaningful data to be available. Finally, the odds used to develop the system are market average over/under 2.5. I will be using Pinnacle odds for the system as this is my preferred bookmaker and the odds will in most cases be somewhat better than those that the system is calibrated against. I think that is about it except that I have just remembered to also say that there is a specific group of matches in Serie A where there appears to be value on the Unders but as the 2.5 goals odds are relatively high (circa 2.4 and above) and in the interests of reducing variability I have opted to follow Under 3.5 in these cases. I will be logging selections and running yield using a theoretical starting bank of £200 and level stakes at 5% (£10) of this amount. Expect first selections for the weekend later in the week (Championship only for the next couple of weeks before the EPL and Serie A have racked up enough matches). Thanks for reading, hope some of you will find this interesting.

[Grex]

Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... Very interesting, Aldebaran..... I wish you the best of luck :hope When I was running my Overs system, I also came up with preferred leagues of the English Premiership, Championship and Italy Serie A. The best performer was Serie A, with the Championship a definite under-achiever. I will follow this with interest :ok

[robotzel78]

Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... Nice introduction, let's see the results. Good luck!

[aldebaran]

Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... Thanks for the comments. Grex, I don't think it is a coincidence that it is the same leagues that we have found the most value in. Possibly something to do with how tight the markets are for these leagues given the level of money placed on these matches? Anyway, on to the first week's selections in this particular bid for long-term profit and we have five fixtures all of which the system has selected value on the unders. Please bear in mind that I have probably put the kiss of death on this now by putting it in the public domain:lol. Let's just see what kind of start this makes:hope........ [TABLE=class: grid, width: 820]

[TR] [TD]Bet No.[/TD] [TD]Date, Time[/TD] [TD]Fixture[/TD] [TD]League[/TD] [TD]Selection[/TD] [TD]Odds[/TD] [TD]Result[/TD] [TD]W/L[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [TD]Return[/TD] [TD]Bank (start £200)[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: right]1[/TD] [TD=align: right]28/09/2013 12:15[/TD] [TD]Nottm Forest v Derby[/TD] [TD]Championship[/TD] [TD]Under2.5[/TD] [TD]2.10[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD] 10[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: right]2[/TD] [TD=align: right]28/09/2013 15:00[/TD] [TD]Bournemouth v Blackburn[/TD] [TD]Championship[/TD] [TD]Under2.5[/TD] [TD]1.88[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD] 10[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: right]3[/TD] [TD=align: right]28/09/2013 15:00[/TD] [TD]Burnley v Charlton[/TD] [TD]Championship[/TD] [TD]Under2.5[/TD] [TD]1.93[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD] 10[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: right]4[/TD] [TD=align: right]28/09/2013 15:00[/TD] [TD]QPR v Middlesbrough[/TD] [TD]Championship[/TD] [TD]Under2.5[/TD] [TD]1.89[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD] 10[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: right]5[/TD] [TD=align: right]28/09/2013 15:00[/TD] [TD]Reading v Birmingham[/TD] [TD]Championship[/TD] [TD]Under2.5[/TD] [TD]2.07[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD] 10[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=colspan: 8]Total Staked/Returned[/TD] [TD]0.00[/TD] [TD]0.00[/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE=width: 820] [TR] [TD=colspan: 10][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[aldebaran]

Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... So an unspectacular yet steady start; 3 out of 5 winners and a small profit from the first round of matches. I'll be delighted if we can keep that up as an average strike rate though! [TABLE=class: grid, width: 833]

[TR] [TD]Bet No.[/TD] [TD]Date, Time[/TD] [TD]Fixture[/TD] [TD]League[/TD] [TD]Selection[/TD] [TD]Odds[/TD] [TD]Result[/TD] [TD]W/L[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [TD]Return[/TD] [TD]Balance[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]£200.00[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]1[/TD] [TD=align: right]28/09/2013 12:15[/TD] [TD]Nottm Forest v Derby County[/TD] [TD]Championship[/TD] [TD]Under2.5[/TD] [TD]2.10[/TD] [TD] 1-0[/TD] [TD]W[/TD] [TD]£10.00[/TD] [TD]£21.00[/TD] [TD]£211.00[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2[/TD] [TD=align: right]28/09/2013 15:00[/TD] [TD]Bournemouth v Blackburn[/TD] [TD]Championship[/TD] [TD]Under2.5[/TD] [TD]1.88[/TD] [TD] 1-3[/TD] [TD]L[/TD] [TD]£10.00[/TD] [TD]£0.00[/TD] [TD]£201.00[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]3[/TD] [TD=align: right]28/09/2013 15:00[/TD] [TD]Burnley v Charlton[/TD] [TD]Championship[/TD] [TD]Under2.5[/TD] [TD]1.93[/TD] [TD] 3-0[/TD] [TD]L[/TD] [TD]£10.00[/TD] [TD]£0.00[/TD] [TD]£191.00[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]4[/TD] [TD=align: right]28/09/2013 15:00[/TD] [TD]QPR v Middlesbrough[/TD] [TD]Championship[/TD] [TD]Under2.5[/TD] [TD]1.89[/TD] [TD] 2-0[/TD] [TD]W[/TD] [TD]£10.00[/TD] [TD]£18.90[/TD] [TD]£199.90[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]5[/TD] [TD=align: right]28/09/2013 15:00[/TD] [TD]Reading v Birmingham[/TD] [TD]Championship[/TD] [TD]Under2.5[/TD] [TD]2.07[/TD] [TD] 2-0[/TD] [TD]W[/TD] [TD]£10.00[/TD] [TD]£20.70[/TD] [TD]£210.60[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=colspan: 8]Total Staked/Returned[/TD] [TD]£50.00[/TD] [TD]£60.60[/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=colspan: 10]Yield[/TD] [TD]21%[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] *I've noticed that the embedded table in the post doesn't display very well on mobiles/tablets so I would also like to attach a link to an image file to each post just in case......but I need to work out how to do that first!

[froment]

Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system.....

a small profit from the first round of matches.

Well, 20% ROI is not that small, although sample was quite small... Hope you can keep it at that level! :ok

I would also like to attach a link to an image file to each post just in case......but I need to work out how to do that first!

Check if this helps: http://forum.punterslounge.com/threads/19166-How-do-I-post-a-Screenshot http://forum.punterslounge.com/threads/51386-Tech-and-Gaming-Resources-and-How-to-post-a-pic-on-PL?p=837421#post837421 If you don't want to create an account with these image sharing sites, I recommend ImageLord.com - just upload the screenshot and get the link. Downside is that you need to save those links yourself - since you don't have an accout at imagelord, you can't remind yourself of the links...

[aldebaran]

Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... Thanks Froment. So hopefully the summary table for round 1 is now here. From now on I will post a table like this after each round is completed and keep the selections posts to plain text for simplicity. You are of course right that a 20% ROI/yield is very healthy but as you say, the sample size so far is very small!

[aldebaran]

Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... So, there are midweek Championship fixtures this week and.....another five unders and still no overs! Have to say I am slightly surprised by the number of unders been thrown up so far without any overs, but this is what the system is generating.... 1st October 2013 Championship

[aldebaran]

Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... Fat fingers there! :lol Let's try again. As I was saying before I got too excited and posted before I had finished, we have five more unders: 1st October 2013 Championship; Barnsley v Reading; Under 2.5 @ 2.060 Championship; Derby v Ipswich; Under 2.5 @ 1.952 Championship; Leeds v Bournemouth; Under 2.5 @ 2.000 Championship; Doncaster v Burnley; Under 2.5 @ 1.917 Championship; Middlesbrough v Huddersfield; Under 2.5 @ 1.943

[aldebaran]

Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... Results are in.... 1st October 2013 Championship; Barnsley v Reading; Under 2.5 @ 2.060 FT 1-1, win Championship; Derby v Ipswich; Under 2.5 @ 1.952 FT 4-4, lose Championship; Leeds v Bournemouth; Under 2.5 @ 2.000 FT 2-1, lose Championship; Doncaster v Burnley; Under 2.5 @ 1.917 FT 0-2, win Championship; Middlesbrough v Huddersfield; Under 2.5 @ 1.943 FT 1-1, win So another decent return although the Unders did dominated the results in the championship tonight. The system also managed to select the goal-madness at Derby and it was looking a bit touch and go with 5 minutes to go with 2 games having gone Over and the remaining 3 games all sitting on 2 goals! Summary so far: 10 bets, Total staked £100, Total Return £119.80, Profit £19.80, Yield 19.8% Link to summary table.

[zbrochu]

Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... Hi Aldebaran, this interesting. I agree it is difficult to compete with bookmakers in estimating U/O chances by using only goals scored/goals allowed stats, they are bloody good at this. There is different angle needed here. I have tried to tackle this market with this exact assumption. I wonder what you meant by saying that, if you could write few more words about it..

Instead the idea is that the metric I have developed reflects the probability of goals being scored based on the two teams approaches to the game.

[aldebaran]

Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system.....

Hi Aldebaran, this interesting. I agree it is difficult to compete with bookmakers in estimating U/O chances by using only goals scored/goals allowed stats, they are bloody good at this. There is different angle needed here. I have tried to tackle this market with this exact assumption. I wonder what you meant by saying that, if you could write few more words about it..

Hi zbrochu. Thanks for the interest. Well, I'm sure you'll understand that I don't intend to reveal exactly how I'm selecting matches here but what I can say is that there are a bunch of other statistics about recent matches involving the two teams in an upcoming fixture which allow you to analyse how effective and efficient they have been at attacking and defending in their previous games. Goals in themselves are due to specific events in a game and often unpredictable factors such as referee decisions etc but we can perhaps look at the conditions that are most likely to occur that will make goals more or less likely. Hope this helps without giving too much away. ;)

[aldebaran]

Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... Another four unders for this weekend. You'd be forgiven for thinking this was an unders only system, but honestly, its looking for value overs too! 5th October 13 Championship; Birmingham v Bolton; Under 2.5 @ 2.060 Championship; Burnley v Reading; Under 2.5 @ 1.971 Championship; Charlton v Blackpool; Under 2.5 @ 1.87 Championship; Derby v Leeds; Under 2.5 @ 1.952

[aldebaran]

Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... A less than useful day...1 winner out of 4 and that wipes out all the gains made to date. Still. it's a marathon and not a sprint...... Summary table link 14 bets, Total staked £140, Total Return £138.50, Profit £-1.50, Yield -1.1% 5th October 13 - results Championship; Birmingham v Bolton; Under 2.5 @ 2.060 FT 1-2 lose Championship; Burnley v Reading; Under 2.5 @ 1.971 FT 2-1 lose Championship; Charlton v Blackpool; Under 2.5 @ 1.87 FT 0-0 win Championship; Derby v Leeds; Under 2.5 @ 1.952 FT 3-1 lose

[aldebaran]

Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... Selections for this weekend.... 19th October 13 Championship; Blackburn v Charlton; Under 2.5 @ 1.893 Championship; Bolton v Sheffield Wednesday; Under 2.5 @ 1.989 Championship; Ipswich v Burnley; Under 2.5 @ 2.06 Championship; Leicester v Huddersfield; Under 2.5 @ 2.10 20th October 13 Championship; Leeds v Birmingham; Under 2.5 @ 1.877

[jtw1]

Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... Good luck with this one sir ..:ok

[aldebaran]

Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... Results below and we're back on the right track. 19th October 13 Championship; Blackburn v Charlton; Under 2.5 @ 1.893 0-1 win Championship; Bolton v Sheffield Wednesday; Under 2.5 @ 1.989 1-1 win Championship; Ipswich v Burnley; Under 2.5 @ 2.06 0-1 win Championship; Leicester v Huddersfield; Under 2.5 @ 2.10 2-1 lose 20th October 13 Championship; Leeds v Birmingham; Under 2.5 @ 1.877 4-0 lose 19 bets, Total staked £190, Total Return £197.93, Profit £7.93, Yield 4.2% system results summary

[aldebaran]

Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... Four selections for Saturday with the Premier League having now played enough games to generate ratings and enter the fray. Still all unders and no overs picked. Looks like there will be 5 or 6 for Sunday too and will post these later on Saturday. 26th October 2013 Championship; Barnsley v Sheffield Wednesday; Under 2.5 @ 1.97 Championship; Derby v Birmingham; Under 2.5 @ 2.07 Premier League; Aston Villa v Everton; Under 2.5 @ 2.01 Premier League; Southampton v Fulham; Under 2.5 @ 2.03

[aldebaran]

Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... Six for Sunday: 27th October 13 Premier League; Sunderland v Newcastle; Under 2.5 @ 2.06 Premier League; Tottenham Hotspur v Hull; Under 2.5 @ 2.03 Premier League; Swansea v West Ham; Under 2.5 @ 2.03 Serie A; Catania v Sassuolo; Under 2.5 @ 1.909 Serie A; Parma v Milan; Under 2.5 @ 1.971 Serie A; Udinese v Roma; Under 2.5 @ 1.893

[Jarek]

Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... Good luck, I used to play only under 2,5 pretty succesfull. could you reccomend some tips on how you select the matches. thx.

[anaconda69]

Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... Well done Saturday 4\4 must be nice

[aldebaran]

Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... Weekends results: 26th October 2013 Championship; Barnsley v Sheffield Wednesday; Under 2.5 @ 1.97 1-1 win Championship; Derby v Birmingham; Under 2.5 @ 2.07 1-1 win Premier League; Aston Villa v Everton; Under 2.5 @ 2.01 0-2 win Premier League; Southampton v Fulham; Under 2.5 @ 2.03 2-0 win 27th October 13 Premier League; Sunderland v Newcastle; Under 2.5 @ 2.06 2-1 lose Premier League; Tottenham Hotspur v Hull; Under 2.5 @ 2.03 1-0 win Premier League; Swansea v West Ham; Under 2.5 @ 2.03 0-0 win Serie A; Catania v Sassuolo; Under 2.5 @ 1.909 0-0 win Serie A; Parma v Milan; Under 2.5 @ 1.971 3-2 lose Serie A; Udinese v Roma; Under 2.5 @ 1.893 0-1 win 29 bets, Total staked £290, Total Return £357.35, Profit £67.35, Yield 23.2% system results summary

[aldebaran]

Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system.....

Good luck, I used to play only under 2,5 pretty succesfull. could you reccomend some tips on how you select the matches. thx.

Hi. As I said further up the thread I don't wish to reveal the exact selection criteria but, as in my earlier reply to zbrochu, the system looks at previous performance stats. Hope that helps.

[aldebaran]

Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system.....

Well done Saturday 4\4 must be nice

Thanks mate. Sunday went pretty well too!

[aldebaran]

Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... Two for Wednesday: 30th October 2013 Serie A; AC Milan v Lazio; Under 2.5 @ 1.96 Serie A; Fiorentina v Napoli; Under 2.5 @ 2.00

[aldebaran]

Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... Wednesday's results: 30th October 2013 Serie A; AC Milan v Lazio; Under 2.5 @ 1.96 1-1 win Serie A; Fiorentina v Napoli; Under 2.5 @ 2.00 1-2 lose 31 bets, Total staked £310, Total Return £376.95, Profit £66.95, Yield 21.6% system results summary

[aldebaran]

Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... Saturday's selections: 2nd November 2013 Championship; Blackburn v Middlesbrough; Under 2.5 @ 1.925 Championship; Bournemouth v Bolton; Under 2.5 @ 2.06 Championship; Nottm Forest v Blackpool; Under 2.5 @ 1.917 Premier League; West Ham v Aston Villa; Under 2.5 @ 1.862 Serie A; AC Milan v Fiorentina; Under 2.5 @ 2.04 Serie A; Parma v Juventus; Under 2.5 @ 2.04 Expect a couple for Sunday too. I'll post these tomorrow.....

[aldebaran]

Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... Quite a good day then........ 2nd November 2013 Championship; Blackburn v Middlesbrough; Under 2.5 @ 1.925 1-0 win Championship; Bournemouth v Bolton; Under 2.5 @ 2.06 0-2 win Championship; Nottm Forest v Blackpool; Under 2.5 @ 1.917 0-1 win Premier League; West Ham v Aston Villa; Under 2.5 @ 1.862 0-0 win Serie A; AC Milan v Fiorentina; Under 2.5 @ 2.04 0-2 win Serie A; Parma v Juventus; Under 2.5 @ 2.04 0-1 win Summary: 37 bets, Total staked £370, Total Return £474.39, Profit £114.39, Yield 31.8% system results summary

[aldebaran]

Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... 3rd November 2013 Serie A; Udinese v Inter; Under 2.5 @ 1.926 Serie A; Torino v Roma; Under 2.5 @ 1.901 Let see if the great run can continue!

[anaconda69]

Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... How long do you envisage being here as if I follow anyone I need to know how long it will last? I do my own threads and ideas so I know it can be some work?