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BBOTD Thursday 19th September


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Ayr 4.40 - Clayton 8/1 Bet365 BOG An interesting mix of runners in this race with the completely unexposed stepping up in class lining up against some horses that have been there, done it and bought the tee shirt at this level. I sometimes feel it can pay to find one of the more exposed who is in form because they can be under bet (or rather the others are over bet) and on this occasion that horse is Clayton. The form of his last two Newmarket runs has been franked quite considerably with the 2nd and 4th in the first race showing improved form (3rd flopped) and the 1st, 2nd, 4th and 5th all performing better on their next run in the 2nd race. Im not sure how strong this race really is and this horse has proven himself previously on soft/good to soft ground (joint highest RPR on GS). Good draw for his prominant running style wont do him any harm either.

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Re: BBOTD Thursday 19th September A5.10 Kingarrick e/w 40/1 Skybet I'm putting this one up early since the 40/1 won't last I suspect. This is another horse racing off it's optimum conditions and is effectively (with the jockeys claim) racing off the same mark as its last winning one. The jockey is having a great season and is well worth the 5lb claim and there are signs in the last week or so that the trainers horses are running better after a lean spell. All 4 of the horses win and placed efforts have come with give in the ground and it can get pretty bad up at Ayr so hopefully the horse will see out this trip well when others have cried off. Decent e/w price if on a going day.

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Re: BBOTD Thursday 19th September 17.20 Yarmouth: Baddilini @ 11/2 Bet365 Baddilini showed a clear return to form at the same track only two days ago, when staying on strongly over 5f. He appeared to be pretty early on outpaced, and lost ground over 3f out, stayed on strongly in the closing stages though to almost catch the eventual winner. The step up in trip to 6f tomorrow will certainly suit as Baddilini best performances came over this distance anyway. Until Tuesday he didn't show much this year, even though he ran in better races and off higher marks, after a successful year 2012, which saw him winning a class 2 Handicap and running a blinder in a listed race. He's been once rated 93 and is now able to race of 82, a career lowest mark. As stated he looked very dangerous of the same mark only two days ago on same ground conditions as expected tomorrow, and therefore with the 6f trip better to suit, in an open race, Baddilini looks overpriced.

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Re: BBOTD Thursday 19th September 2.40 AYR~PARTNER 40/1 0.5 E/W SKY BET~Have taking a bit of 50's off PP which was absolutely massive for horse that ran so well in the Ayr silver cup last year been out of form but rocketed down the weights back to best trip today and ground not a problem would not surprise me to see it make that price look really silly.

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Re: BBOTD Thursday 19th September 1605 listowel 1pt win victory song 5/2 pp ground poses a threat to victory song but as he holds an entry for a group 3 at champions at newmarket later this year and if the trainer runs him,im prepared to trust his judgement that he thinks he will be able to handle the ground, 2 runs so far in his career, a 3rd and a 1st, his win last time out was over a shorter distance, but he finished well that day this trip may suit

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Re: BBOTD Thursday 19th September 4.00pm @ Pontefract 'Jubilante' 9/2 (Ladbrokes) Horse wasn't disgraced in better company last time out, beaten around 2 lengths. Drop in trip not a problem and the drop in grade today should mean the horse is bang there at the finish. Looks a 3 horse race to me and this one looks the strongest of the 3. 1 point win

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2.40 Ayr - Saxonette ew 18/1 betvictor Has been running ok recently in handicaps recently , has a good record at Ayr over CD with 1 win and 3 places from 6. Racing from 3lb out handicap today and Elliot takes the ride. Last won in a selling handicap back in July and only 3lbs higher today on gd/frm but doesn't seem to mind soft conditions and perrat does well In 5F handicaps here. Sent from my HTC One using Tapatalk 2

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Re: BBOTD Thursday 19th September Pontefract 5.30 - Kiwi Bay (1pts win, 11/1 Bet365) Is a hard horse to predict but he ultimately does have some ability it's just a question of whether he puts it all in. His last six runs mirror this a placed effort followed by a stinker of a run his last six reads 3,10,2,10,2,10 so by that pattern he's due a going day today!. His mark does look fair enough but as I mentioned before a lot has to do with whether he's up for it. His last win came off 85 but that was in 2012 so some time ago but if everything clicks he is capable and worth a go at the price.

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Re: BBOTD Thursday 19th September 5.10 AYR LATIN REBEL @ 33/1 William Hill BOG .5ew One of Four Goldie runners and Fanning takes the ride. This one was 2nd in a Bumper at this track on Soft ground, has been running over inadequate trips until last time over 1m 4f when he was staying on and only beat 2 1/4L. Extra distance today and cut in the ground should suit, could go close at a big price.

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Re: BBOTD Thursday 19th September 300 Ponte: Watts Up Son EW 22/1 SJ A bit of a speculator here with a horse who has the ability but seems to be out of form. I reckon he has been going over the wrong trip for a while now, he's a handy horse who sometimes fails to settle but switching him to 1m4f just hasnt worked and now they have gone back to basics and drops back to a mile. If he can get the lead and he should do from stall 3 he could quite easy be competitive in this fairly weak handicap, a few of these are also badly out of form and others badly handicapped.

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Re: BBOTD Thursday 19th September 4.35 Listowel Clonbanan Lad 3/1 BetFred BOG To me this is a 2 horse race between the disappointing Owega Star and Clonbanon Lad. Clonbanon Lad is a soft ground horse having won 2 bumpers and then finishing the season with a run in the Cheltenham bumper. He won easily on his debut over hurdles last year at Punchestown before disappointing albeit in better races. He looks the class act here given the conditions. I think he will either win or fall and as most win, he is my nap today. 1 point win for nap purposes Clonbanan Lad 3/1 BetFred BOG

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Re: BBOTD Thursday 19th September 7.10 Kempton - Zain Spirit 14/1(SJ) Gerald Butlers inmate looks overpriced at 14/1 here given he's got decent polytrack form to his name. He bombed out on soft ground at Epsom alst run but back at Kempton he should go well from stall 3 under Tylicki. 1pt win

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Re: BBOTD Thursday 19th September 8.10 Kempton Best Odds Guranteed William Hill 9-2 Currently - 1pt Win. Has very good form compared to everything else in the field Figures of 2421222, The concern is hitting many 2nds and questions over getting its nose in front. Top apprentice in top for O Murphy is on board and they have found a good race here after 144 days off. 9-2 for me is way to big a price.

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Re: BBOTD Thursday 19th September

8.10 Kempton Best Odds Guranteed William Hill 9-2 Currently - 1pt Win. Has very good form compared to everything else in the field Figures of 2421222, The concern is hitting many 2nds and questions over getting its nose in front. Top apprentice in top for O Murphy is on board and they have found a good race here after 144 days off. 9-2 for me is way to big a price.
I'm guessing thats Bravo Bravo then????
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Re: BBOTD Thursday 19th September 6.10 Kempton Very quick short of time! Not the best handicap in the world and plenty have something to prove. Sudden Wish won last time out, he looked in need of every yard of the extra 2 furlongs last time out and this drop back in trip is a concern not quite sure but somehow gets to run off the same mark and has been largely consistent at this sort of trip and off this mark but needs to find more. Tatting finished behind Sudden Wish that day but was better suited to how the race was run last time out and travelled strongly to win comfortably. A repeat of that performance off the same mark will make him hard to beat and likely to be better suited to the trip than Sudden Wish, the one to beat! 1pt win Tatting 2/1 VC

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Re: BBOTD Thursday 19th September 18.05 Listowel Wicklow Brave - 1PT Win 13/8 StanJames Wicklow Brave has raced over this distance on each of his 3 starts, improving with each run. He ran well at Punchestown on his 2nd outing, only being beaten a neck by the winner Stephanie Frances. Following that victory he was entered for a race at the Galway festival where he won by 3/4 of a length with Dermot Weld's Marty's Magic behind him in 2nd. Although this looks set to be a tougher race for the selection, he looks open to further improvement and deserves to take his chance in better company.

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Re: BBOTD Thursday 19th September So far; Irish had a winner at 9/2 (R4 20p) and Barnsley Chop had a 2nd at 33/1 EW Later runners:

7.10 Kempton - Zain Spirit 14/1(SJ) Gerald Butlers inmate looks overpriced at 14/1 here given he's got decent polytrack form to his name. He bombed out on soft ground at Epsom alst run but back at Kempton he should go well from stall 3 under Tylicki. 1pt win
8.10 Kempton Best Odds Guranteed William Hill 9-2 Currently - 1pt Win. Bravo Bravo? Has very good form compared to everything else in the field Figures of 2421222, The concern is hitting many 2nds and questions over getting its nose in front. Top apprentice in top for O Murphy is on board and they have found a good race here after 144 days off. 9-2 for me is way to big a price.
6.10 Kempton Very quick short of time! Not the best handicap in the world and plenty have something to prove. Sudden Wish won last time out, he looked in need of every yard of the extra 2 furlongs last time out and this drop back in trip is a concern not quite sure but somehow gets to run off the same mark and has been largely consistent at this sort of trip and off this mark but needs to find more. Tatting finished behind Sudden Wish that day but was better suited to how the race was run last time out and travelled strongly to win comfortably. A repeat of that performance off the same mark will make him hard to beat and likely to be better suited to the trip than Sudden Wish, the one to beat! 1pt win Tatting 2/1 VC
18.05 Listowel Wicklow Brave - 1PT Win 13/8 StanJames Wicklow Brave has raced over this distance on each of his 3 starts, improving with each run. He ran well at Punchestown on his 2nd outing, only being beaten a neck by the winner Stephanie Frances. Following that victory he was entered for a race at the Galway festival where he won by 3/4 of a length with Dermot Weld's Marty's Magic behind him in 2nd. Although this looks set to be a tougher race for the selection, he looks open to further improvement and deserves to take his chance in better company.
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