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NFL week three picks


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Again back with one i want to jump on early 7 pts Miami dolphins (-1) to beat atlanta 10/11 william hill This line probably gets to 3 with a dinged up falcons team that will have a below par roddy white and no steven jackson on the offense which granted still leaves tony gonzalez and julio jones but should be easier to cover and jacquizz rodgers and jason snelling are a massive downgrade on the ground attack. Defensively they have lost two starters including weatherspoon the influental linebacker and biermann the defensive end which will affect a substandard pass rush and the team is already wafer thin in the secondary. Miami comes in undefeated and are not without their own issues on offense but they are more of the consistency side than health and should hopefully be good enough to take advantage of the walking wounded. Sent from my GT-I9505 using Tapatalk 2

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Re: NFL week three picks I'll have 5 o/u&spread bets from week 3 and I took all early, so I'm posting them early, as well. Limits are already ok to take and post. One of them had already became a public bet, I can't afford to lose more value with him. The others were so far steady lines, only got half of point advantage with couple of them, but I don't expect any dramatic movement, from now on, at least not towards to bad direction. If you will to follow all of them, you can take the one already became public bet and wait to catch better line, or odds with others. But, as I told, I don't expect too much to change until game day. (I might speculate public to back Vikings more, but I already caught good odds with the line, which I fancy anyway.) Patriots vs. Buccaneers Although T.Brady is expected to have couple more reliable hands back from injury, I can’t imagine that disastrous Pats’ offense to dramatically improve in one week. I wrote my thoughts about their offensive lack of quality and throughout the week, there hadn’t been so much things to change those thoughts. D.Amendola will miss this game as well, both A.Dobson and K.Thompkins played terrible against Jets. So, T.Brady has only one reliable wide receiver, J.Edelman. Bucs’ secondary is definitely not the best defensive unit to bounce back. Gronk is expected to return, but I seriously doubt him to play in most of the snaps, S.Ridley had a terrible game last week, he fumbled and benched in first week. He’ll have monster numbers occassionally during season, but Bucs defensive front seven kept both Jets and Saints at 90- total rushing yards. All in all, I expect another offensively disharmonious game by Patriots. J.Freeman is terrible. Not getting a contract extension most definitely effects him and it’s also kind of obvious, he doesn’t have vote of confidence of coaching staff. He attempted only 26.5 passes per game and completed E of them. To have a monstrous RB like D.Martin is definitely something for a team to focus on rushing, but J.Freeman is better than these. Pats’ defense is not a good match up definitely, its front seven is healthy and solid. I expect Freeman to get pressurized during all game, but Bucs’ rushing numbers will be lower than they were against pedestrian Saints’ rush defense. TE production is the weak spot of Pats’ defense, but Bucs has almost zero TE production. I expect both defenses to dominate the game, as they have simply quality to do that and both opposing offense teams have tons of problems. Under 43.5 3/10 @2 (pinnacle) Saints vs. Cardinals Saints started 2-0, but it doesn’t change they’ve been far from being impressive throughout those games. Against Bucs, they barely won, despite J.Freeman completed only 9 of his 22 pass attempts and Bucs had double digit number of penalties. They did a good job by holding Bucs to only 14 points, but that was a game, they should’ve easily dominated. D.Brees started slow to new season, he completed d of his passing attempts and recorded 3TD-3INT. He got sacked for 6 times in first 2 games, his O-Line is not effective in both pass protecting and run blocking. RB’s only rushed 3.122 yards per carry...D.Brees is still a magical player and he’ll most probably increase his passing accuracy as the season goes on, but without a solid rushing game, I doubt they can blow the games out easily, especially against such an underrated Cardinals’ defense. All L.Fitzgerald, A.Roberts and R.Mendenhall will start, even though they will be missing most of training sessions, during this week. Cardinals started better then last season, as expected. They have worse W-L record, by they are more impressive on the field. C.Palmer made a solid start, he completes almost a of his attempts, his O-Line is stepped up against Lions, after a terrible debut game. Despite not having L.Fitzgerald most of the game, he engineered a W, in home opener. I like Cardinals’ defense a lot, their front seven is really versatile and fairly deep, whereas as the rookie T.Mathieu made a good start, their secondary is also pretty good, the stats will improve week by week. Saints has too many injury worries, despite some early injuries for defensive starters, they’ll miss two more defensive starters NT B.Bunkley and CB P.Robinson. Moreover, there are some minor concerns. Cardinals also doesn’t have a clean bill of health, but they’ll not miss any starters, except long term suspended D.Washington. Considering first two games of each teams, I don’t think there is too much seperating those teams, as Saints’ missings are also added into. Therefore, despite it’d been a public play already, I would love to take Cards’ with a TD. Cardinals(+7.5) 3/10 @ 1.91 (paddy power, bwin, skybet, betfred) Redskins vs. Lions There must be something I don’t understand. Even though both had included a long amount of garbage time, 112 points had been scored in Skins’ first two games, whereas Lions is already one of the most overish teams around, as they depend heavily to passing game and they have solid goal line rushers. The status of R.Bush is uncertain, but even if he doesn’t play, this match up deserves a bigger total points line. Both rushing and passing game of Skins improved against Packers, it was impossible to repeat the terrible outing in season opener anyway, but offensive team fulfilled some of the expectations. RGIII had another questionable performance, but Lions’ defense is a good fit for him to play like the RGIII everyone saw, last season. With or without R.Bush, M.Stafford will continue to pass and I seriously wonder how can Skins’ terrible secondary will limit his production. Also both L.Fletcher and B.Cofield had awful starts and despite having a good material on paper, Skins can’t defend against rush as well. A mediocre back up such as J.Starks had his career game against Skins and I don’t want to remember the first week game against Eagles. They conceded 71 points in first two games and I seriously doubt this to improve dramatically in just one week, against an offensively super talented Lions team. RGIII will eventually get better and even he continues to play sub par, his offensive peers are talented enough to score 20+ at home pitch, as long as they limit unforced errors, I believe Skins is a 25+ points team at home, with an “ok” RGIII. If R.Bush plays, Stafford will have full of talented and explosive receivers around him, if he doesn’t play, Stafford might depend even more to passing game. I have a feeling, Bush’s situation will eventually end up being win-win in any possible cases. I expect a scoring bonanza. Over 49 3/10 @ 1.943 (pinnacle) Vikings vs. Browns Vikings might seem to have impressive offensive stats in starting two games. But, the numbers are fluke, for their case. I explained how I saw their offense against Lions, last week and against Bears, things didn’t change too much. C.Ponder continued to suck, A.Peterson produced an “ok” game once again, he simply misses his FB J.Felton and he’ll continue missing him, this week as well. They scored from a kick return and fumble recovery, also Vikings had a very lucky interception in the end zone. Those three defensive plays kept them in the game. Browns has a perfect defensive unit, solid pass rushers, solid options against rush and an over average secondary, in which one of the best corner backs included. They allowed 300- total yards against much better QB’s then C.Ponder and 60- rushing yards per game. Q.Groves is expected to miss the game against Vikings, but this may result rookie B.Mingo to play for more snaps, after a very impressive pro football debut. Third string QB B.Hoyer will start for Browns and this’ll be his second pro football start. This might not seem to be good news, but B.Weeden had his own problems throughout the first two games, so it’s hard to determine Hoyer’s effect on scoreboard. That may result T.Richardson to have more carries, rather than his low numbers in first two games and that will do only good to Browns. Best wide receiver of team, J.Gordon returns from suspension, so Browns will arguably have the best offensive unit of this season on pitch, against Vikings’ defense, who allowed 30+ points, 410+ total yards and sacked opposing QB’s only for 1 time, in first two games. Their defensive stats were expected to drop, due to personnel transaction and sub par performances of some starters. They definitely couldn’t surprise, so far. Vikings is in home opener, but they have too many problems to be favorited with a TD, Browns is simply not the team to trust at all, but they have one of the best defensive units of the league, which should be enough to prevent a blow out. I feel Browns have a fairly big edge at the defensive side of the game, so I believe they can keep this close, at least. A definitely better Vikings team covered this line 5 of 8 home games, last season, with their current problems, it seems logical to rate current team to cover 3 of those 8 games. Browns team covered this line 3 of 8 road games, last season. I definitely see them as an improving side and I should rate current Browns team to cover 4-5 of those 8 games. Browns(+6) 3/10 @ 2 (pinnacle) Jets vs. Bills If Bucs could’ve kept the composure and limit the stupid penalties, Jets’ scoring average per game would’ve been 13- points. G.Smith has too many issues to get better, despite he has a solid O-Line. He has problems with accuracy, he has problems with decision making, sometimes he's late at escaping the pocket, sometimes he escapes quick, and attempt a pass with a shaky footwork, although he has an open receiver and not an immense pocket pressure. But, Jets' offensive incapability is definitely not on Smith's shoulders, he has really few number of reliable receivers. He'll continue missing J.Kerley, that means he'll have to go to disappointing WR's S.Hill, C.Gates and a solid, but limited because of minor injuries, S.Holmes. Jets doesn't have a convincing rushing game, neither. Bills is definitely not world beaters, especially on the road. But, in overall, Bills is better team then Jets, for me. Despite missing two solid defensive backs, J.Byrd and S.Gilmore, I rate both defenses to be fairly even. If Bills didn't miss those names at secondary, I would've definitely rated them having a better overall defensive unit. Bills also has a rookie QB with some mental areas to improve, but he, E.J. Manuel definitely had a better start then G.Smith. He incomparably has too many reliable play makers around him, then compatriot. I believe Bills has much better quality in some of units and I don't see any unit, which Jets has the better of them. I would've set Bills favorite with 1, or 2 points. It might sound crazy to favor Bills, on the road, but this is definitely more related to Jets' current and potential abilities. Bills(+2.5) 3/10 @ 1.91 (ladbrokes, coral, bet365, paddy, betfred, stan james...)

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Re: NFL week three picks Quick edit: I seemed to forget about T.Richardson's departure to Colts, but Browns doesn't have T.Richardson anymore, it's a silly trade from Browns, they'll probably tank to have one of the top spots from the upcoming, very deep draft. Anyway, regarding with the play, I took it after hearing about T-Rich, but when I'm writing a preview, my mind seems to get paralyzed. I believe, Browns will have the most talented receiving crew around till start of the season and despite C.Ogbonnaya is no comparison for T-Rich, he can produce similar amount of rushing yards, as long as Browns will be that passing dependent and his touches won't exceed 15's. All in all, sorry for that mistake in the preview, after I post, I read it and I noticed that important mistake. I took it after I heard the news as I told, but ofc, you're free to follow, or fade. May be, I should read them carefully before posting, not after.

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Re: NFL week three picks 3pts Kansas City to beat Philly 13/8 Betfred You would think there are going to be plenty of points on show in this match. Philly are going to score plenty in most of their matches this season but they look like they are going to concede plenty too. The Chiefs look much tighter defensively and if Dontari Poe can put pressure on and get to Michael Vick then the Chiefs could slow down this Philadelphia offense. All in all I’ve a slight lean for the Chiefs in this one. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/kansas-city-chiefs--philadelphia-eagles-betting-andy-reid-can-have-the-last-laugh-on-return-to-philly

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Re: NFL week three picks Andy Reid is returning to his old stomping grounds. He should have a good idea what the Eagles are about. In my humble opinion, the Chiefs would love to win this one for their coach on National Television. However, I don't have a feel for how the Chiefs are playing except better than last year. The Chiefs will be fired up to perform well though. This should be a fun and exciting game to watch. I can't see either team winning by three points, I think the spread will be larger. I will be making a small wager on the Chiefs to get the upset win.

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Re: NFL week three picks May seem a bit weird. But my best one of the week is Seattle -19 (YES 19) to beat the jaxonville jaguars. 10/11 Now -19 is huge, but the difference in these teams are huge. The hawks have the best defence in the NFL imo. Kept the 49ers offence (the great colin kaepernick) to just 3 points. The jaguars have only scored 1 TD in 2 games and are absolutely terrible. I am expecting to see a score of whatever seattle want until they decide to bring in their backup players. My concern would perhaps be Russel wilson not performing very well and throwing interceptions which is the only way i see this not working.

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Re: NFL week three picks Eagles vs. Chiefs Eagles will be facing their old coach Andy Reid, he's the one resurged M.Vick's free falling career. He knows mr.Vick really well and I believe he'll pressurise Vick all night long, he has a team which recorded 9 sacks in first two games and they'll not face a team with an outstanding o-line. M.Vick will get hit numerous times and this'll be 3rd game of Eagles in 11 days, his conditioning is always doubtful, I expect a long night for mr.Vick. Alex Smith is not the guy to trust in such a bet, he doesn't trigger too much vertical plays, but he'll face with a terrible secondary and A.Reid is still a pass-crazy coach, anyway. Chiefs attempted passing in almost %58 of their total snaps, A.Smith had been most targeted J.Charles, I expect him to be really productive against an Eagles defense, missing so many open field tackles and doesn't have the solid pass rushing. Eagles allowed 360.5 passing yards per game so far, against a terrible RGIII and against P.Rivers, who didn't have his best receiver almost a complete half. A.Smith will continue to be hesitant, but his receivers will have more production after the catch. M.Vick didn't face with a defensive personnel like Chiefs has, so far, both D.Jackson and L.McCoy had massive games, but produced mostly after the catch, he's flashy and quick guys with playmaking abilities, but Chiefs' defense is no fluke. They'll decrease that production after the catch, I believe. M.Vick produced 180 and 411 passing yards. As you can understand from the difference, these two games had different scenarios. But in both of those games, he lost passing yards match up against the opposing QB's. He'll face with the coach, who probably knows everything about him, his conditioning is doubtful in this busy schedule... A.Smith(+33.5) passing yards against M.Vick 3/10 @ 1.962 (pinnacle)

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Re: NFL week three picks Green Bay @ Cincinnati, Green Bay -3, @2.05, 2/10 points Green Bay will score points today, Rodgers is averaging over 400 yards/game and the team over 30 points. Cincinnati will probably need to score a lot to win today and with the struggles Dalton has been having lately it will be difficult for the Bengals. I really like the Bengals this season, but not today.

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4 pts Arizona cardinals (+7.5) to beat new orleans 10/11 betfred I am no fan of rob ryan and his body of work as a dc in the nfl. He gets work through name rather than performance in my opinion and i am no believer that the saints defense is massively improved on last years pitiful showing at this stage. On that basis i am willing to take the cardinals getting over a touchdown on this one as either they could hang with the saints and keep it close or certainly carson palmer is capable of padding the score if the game gets away from them in garbage time. Line is moving towards 7 generally so would take it while its there as am less keen without the half point Sent from my GT-I9505 using Tapatalk 2

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10pts green bay (-2.5) to beat cincinnati 10/11 william hill The bengals pass rush is up there with the best on the nfl, the packers offensive line is........not. That being said you win in the nfl at the quarterback position and i just cant see andy dalton keeping uo with aaron rodgers, i was looking at dalton to take the next step this year and in fact bet the bengals to win the lombardi trophy but the early signs do not look good so lets try to win some of that stake money back here!! Sent from my GT-I9505 using Tapatalk 2

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Re: NFL week three picks TV previews: 4pts Detroit to beat Washington 10/11 Betfred It is hard to see beyond the Lions here. They have a powerful offense which can burn the Skins alive whereas Washington’s own offense is struggling. They may have scored 47pts this season but their opponents have been on easy street on both occasions allowing them some cheap points. Detroit lost a tight one in Arizona last week but they can make up for that by keeping the Redskins winless in this one. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/detroit-lions--washington-redskins-betting-detroit-can-keep-the-skins-winless-in-washington 4pts Indianapolis (+10) to beat San Francisco 20/21 BetVictor I think San Francisco will win this match but Indy have enough on offense to stay within 10pts of them. We can expect Indy to do plenty of work on the ground in this match which should take enough time off the clock to make it hard for San Francisco to win by two scores. With Luck able to make plays and a genuine excellent running back in situ I’ll stick with the Colts with the start here. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/indianapolis-colts--san-francisco-49ers-betting-the-colts-can-stay-within-10pts-of-the-niners-at-candlestick 4pts Chicago to beat Pittsburgh 4/5 BetVictor I like the Bears in this match. I think they have both sides of the ball going better than the Steelers and while it is unthinkable for a team like Pittsburgh to start 0-3 I think it could well become a reality. Although Chicago haven’t been convincing in their wins this season they can at least say they’ve been up against elite players in AJ Green and Adrian Peterson. Steelers have nobody that elite on offense so I’m with the Bears in this one. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/chicago-bears--pittsburgh-steelers-betting-chicago-can-continue-their-100-start-at-pittsburgh

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Re: NFL week three picks Steelers vs. Bears I'll fade Big Ben, again. His best target TE Heath Miller is expected to return from a very long injury, he'll play for limited number of snaps and as primary RB Le'Veon Bell continues to miss time, there hadn't too much thing happened positive for Steelers' woeful offense. Bears' defense had been disappointing so far, but they have bunch of play makers in secondary and against Steelers' O-Line, which continuously allows pressure from opposing defensive front seven's, players like Tim Jennings and Charles Tillman should have big game, tonight. Jay Cutler has a much better protection this season, he only got sacked 1 time in 2 games, he had promising games, but had some unlucky moments. All of his primary targets are ready to play, despite some minor injury worries. Cutler has a pass-first coach and he already seemed to make good connection with players like B.Marshall and M.Bennett. Steelers' aged secondary was almost flawless at deep coverage, but consistently struggled against simple medium-distanced plays, so even though I.Taylor locks B.Marshall up, TE Martellus Bennett and RB Matt Forte will benefit from this. I don't expect Cutler to throw flashing bombs to deep, but I believe he'll consistently produce 7-15 yards range, occasionally. Cutler is around 250 passing yards guy, against every defense in the league. Big Ben got sacked for 7 times, produced one 200- game and one barely 250+ game with a late, coming from back situation. Steelers' overall offensive problems continue and it would be very speculative to expect Big Ben to throw around 280-290 yards. My fair line for this bet is at most a single digit integer. I expect Cutler to win this match up, anyway. Jay Cutler(+16.5) passing yards against B.Roethlisberger 3/10 @ 1.833 (pinnacle)

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Re: NFL week three picks week 3 recap Michael Vick - Alex Smith: 201-273 +2.886 Patriots - Buccaneers: 23-3 +3 Saints - Cardinals: 31-7 -3 Redskins - Lions: 20-27 -3 Vikings - Browns: 27-31 +3 Jets - Bills: 27-20 -3 Ben Roethlisberger - Jay Cutler: 406-159 -3 12W-0V-10L 66u staked +4.755u %7.205 ROI

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Re: NFL week three picks Monday night preview: 4pts Denver vs Oakland - Under 49pts 10/11 William Hill Something has to give in this match as we have the best passing offense in Denver against the third best pass defence in Oakland and the second best rushing side in Oakland against the best rush defence in Denver. You would expect Denver to have way too much quality for Oakland, especially in Denver but perhaps the better bet is for there to be less than 49pts. Denver haven’t got much of a run game going yet while Oakland have struggled in the air. Both defences are better than average so 49pts is a few on the high side to me. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/oakland-raiders--denver-broncos-betting-points-might-be-in-short-supply-at-mile-high

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