EuroBasket 2013 - 2nd Round

[mcege]

Belgium - Serbia Belgians were lucky and is satisfied to advance this round. They're coming off couple consecutive blow out losses, I don't believe they can be a match against Serbian team, which rested starters like S.Markovic and N.Krstic in last group game. Best Belgian player will have to match up with N.Bjelica, it may effect his performance and Bjelica's ability to play from perimeter will also effect A.Hervelle's rebounding numbers as well, who is Belgians' leading rebounder as well. Serbia can have concentration problems throughout the game, since this is a young team, which may allow a backdoor cover, but I don't think, game will be close enough until last minutes to result with a backdoor cover, I'm expecting Serbians to win by 15-16 points, even Belgians make a late 5-0, 6-0 run. Serbia(-12) 5/10 @ 1.99 Lithuania - France I'm not gonna write anything more about Lithuania, as almost I wrote it in every other day during first round. French team looked sharp in first round, despite playing in the easiest group, some aged starters like T.Parker and B.Diaw had conservative playing times. Whereas Lithuania played intense games with one over time, some of the starters played heavy minutes. France has adequate numbers of bodies to minimize Lithuanians' front court presence, has the deeper squad then Lithuania and had a better performance overall. Lithuania couldn't convince any of the first round games, they don't share the ball consistently, they forget time by time the strong points of their offense and they have offensive droughts throughout the game, which shouldn't change against athletic and solid rebounding team France. These two teams met 2 years ago, they had almost same main players in rotation, Lithuania had more options at back court, whereas France had the beast Joakim Noah at center, so more, or less both of them were a little better and France won by 6 points against Lithuania, at their home court. Today, I expect France to win by 7-8 points. France(-4.5) 5/10 @ 1.952

[mcege]

Re: EuroBasket 2013 - 2nd Round Serbia - Belgium: 76-69 Lithuania - France: 76-62 Terrible day, sorry to the followers. Stakes will be reduced to 3 for remaining games of Group E, until I find something winning from there. I'll do +/-, stats updating thing, at the end of the second round. Croatia - Finland I must admit, Croatians surprised me in positive way in first round. After getting destroyed against Spain, I wasn't expecting them to bounce back that well and stay calm, focused in clutch moments to win all other games. But, they covered 1/3, when they were a favorite and that one came against Czechs who shot 5/21 (!) FT and scored only 20 points in the second half, how much can it be related to Croatians' defense, as you consider they received 72 points per game, until that game. Finns will miss H.Mottola, which is a blow, even he had been used for limited time and couldn't bring too much in the court. But, his shooting abilities from perimeter and experience will be missed, anyway. This Finn team is not fluke, for sure. They are very spirited team, fights for every single ball. They have couple good perimeter shooters, who couldn't find their rhythm still, but despite that they scored 86 points against Russia and Greece for consecutive nights. They are 4-1 against the spread and won 3 of 4 games in which they were underdogs. They'll lack size at front court, but so far they managed to absorb that by putting more effort then opponents, I don't see any reason why it should change tomorrow. Finland(+5) 5/10 @ 1.935 Spain - Greece It's hard to discuss if Spain convinced in first round. They destroyed everybody, but against the hosts, they were clueless at the clutch time. Slovenians nailed some extraordinary shots, but that doesn't explain Spaniard's terrible performance at the offensive end, in that game. Missing P.Gasol and J.C.Navarro should cost them something in somewhere. They have a good guard rotation with skillful players, with different specialities and the best player of the tournament, Marc Gasol. But, I don't like their bench, new coach didn't provide a good test in the only match he mattered and they didn't face with a balanced team like Greece. Greece had lots of up and downs and they're in a must win situation. They start the second round with 0-2 W-L degree, despite their chances will remain mathematically, it's pretty obvious that they can't compensate going 0-3, at all. I don't know how this journey for Greece will end, but coach Trinchieri disappointed me, so far. I admire his coaching abilities and things he did with small club, Cantu, but he seemed not to have absolute control on the team. After losing to Finland, he complains to press about the FA to interfere his squad selection actions, this is not a thing, a mature coach will do. But, I expect players to fight for their pride, after losing to Finland and as they will face with the biggest favorite of the tournament. Greece has the deepest squad among all teams and adequate material to match with Spain's strongest positions. I expect a very spirited game, decided in clutch time. Greece(+6) 5/10 @ 1.952 LET'S BOUNCE BACK!!!

[Alfie White]

Re: EuroBasket 2013 - 2nd Round I have to disagree with you on Finland pick. I can't put a single glimpse of trust with them as they were trashed against Italy and managed to score only 44 points and my book, Croatian side is far better rival. Ok, I agree, they've beat the Greeks but still... I would rather go for Croatia -5 to be honest.

[Alfie White]

Re: EuroBasket 2013 - 2nd Round Spain - Greece I can't see past that Greece can hope for anything in this match. They didn't perform at all at this tournament and their victories over Turkey, Russia and Sweden can't really bring any kind of motivation. If we include devastating Finland match to that equation, morale has hit rock bottom for sure. They start the second phase of the competition with 0 points and mountain to climb. Only thing they can hope for is to win last two games - against Croatia and Slovenia so they maybe somehow grab the fourth spot and go to the round of 8. Spain dominated the tournament and only hiccup they had was one against Slovenia (don't forget that they are the host team) and I can't really put much to that match since they've bounced back in next couple of matches and managed to keep the opposition at bay for most part of the game. It might be a tough match, yes, but I can't see any other outcome than Spain win and HT/FT market gives juicy 1.68 (bet365), and I will be on it!

[mcege]

Re: EuroBasket 2013 - 2nd Round Croatia - Finland: 88-63 Spain - Greece: 75-79 I couldn't watch the first game, so I will not say anything about it. But, I'll avoid Croatian games from now on, as I lost two consecutive bets with them, it's clear that I couldn't update my pre-tournament thoughts about Croatian team. It's better not to touch them at all, at least for this round. Stakes will remain 5 units for Group F games, whereas it's 3 units for Group E games, as I told yesterday.

[mcege]

Re: EuroBasket 2013 - 2nd Round Lithuania - Belgium I know, I faded Lithuania every time they were favorite and that brought me money. But, I definitely impressed with Lithuania against France, all players got into the game emotionally and that created a completely different Lithuanian outlook. Some important role players like R.Seibutis and M.Pocius finally played like they feel they're an important piece of this team. They minimized the unforced errors and shared the ball very well, produced more assists. Belgium stayed close against Serbia, but that was mostly related to Serbia, as they didn't bring any effort to the court for all first half and turned the ball over for 16 times. That kept Belgians in the game throughout it. Belgians are losing three straight and I must say, I don't like the gestures at the bench between players and towards the coach, in last game. They are out of realistic chances to qualify, as they are 0-3 now, so if Lithuania carries the perfect momentum from previous game and keep minimizing the mistakes like they did against very athletic French team, this game should go to a blow out. Lithuania(-13.5) 3/10 @ 1.935 Ukraine - Serbia Ukraine put solid performances against teams with similar level back in first round, but that doesn't change them being a limited team. As the things got serious, they got demolished against Latvia. They seemed not to care about this round, as they already accomplished their missions. Despite his team was down for 30+ points, coach Mike Fratello was weirdly relaxed. I watched him coaching in Nba, commentating in Nba, I never saw him such calm. Also, at the last period against Latvia, some bench players started a race to score more in garbage time and I saw some gestures, which are not a good sign for any basketball team, in any part of world. I believe Ukraine is in a top spot to stand up, Serbia is definitely not a team to trust with such spreads. They only covered against Latvia among the games they were favorited. But, despite key players like N.Nedovic and N.Bjelica played awful, they made 16 to's, they still could've covered against Belgium, they won by 7 points. I believe coach Ivkovic will be harsher this time, not to let his players starting the game with complacency and I expect a easily fragile Ukraine team. Serbia(-11.5) 3/10 @ 1.98

[mcege]

Re: EuroBasket 2013 - 2nd Round Lithuania - Belgium: 86-67 Serbia - Ukraine: 75-82 I have so many words for this Serbian team, who all played like they have bet for Ukraine win, except N.Bjelica. But, of course I'm not writing them here, I must keep my dignity...No more bets, when they are favorite...

[mcege]

Re: EuroBasket 2013 - 2nd Round Ukraine - Lithuania Ukraine is underratedly overish, 5 of their 7 games ended with 140+ points. 3 of ended 150+ points. They are not a slow tempo team, except first game, field goal attempt average in games including Ukraine is above 120, fractions away being 3 field goal attempt per a minute. Lithuania is one of the most overish teams anyway, except first game against Serbia, they scored 75.5 points per game. 77.5 ppg in last 4 of them. They are not receiving that much ofc, but against more underish team like Belgium, this line got beaten and in 3 of 7 games overall. 149 total points per game in last 4 of those 7. There is a public tendency for under, line moved a bit to my favor, this is a definite must win for both teams and that might've been leading people to expect a cautious, nervous game, but I don't feel, that situation surely leads to underish games. It may have effect in positive way, as well. over 145 5/10 @ 1.935

[sn0ow]

Re: EuroBasket 2013 - 2nd Round

I have so many words for this Serbian team, who all played like they have bet for Ukraine win, except N.Bjelica. But, of course I'm not writing them here, I must keep my dignity...No more bets, when they are favorite...

I think the same about Greeks yesterday against Slovenia, they hardly score anything from the game in first half. I watched few French games, but I am not convinced at all. In last game against Latvia I saw another week point - they are getting to comfort when they are leading. This might be great game for Serbia as they are underdogs in this one. Nice odds on Serbie aswell. Probobly I'll come back with my bet and more news on this one. PS: My father is from Slovenia and mother from Serbia. I'm trying to be as objective as I can.

[mcege]

Re: EuroBasket 2013 - 2nd Round Ukraine - Lithuania: 63-70

[mcege]

Re: EuroBasket 2013 - 2nd Round Croatia - Greece Croatia won 6 straight and covered 4 straight. Greece is in must win situation in order to survive, but Croatia is also in must win, as with a victory, they'll play against Ukraine in the next round, whereas if they lose, there's probability of them being matched with France, or Lithuania. Greek will have to win and wait for Italy to beat Spain and Finland to lose, as well. Greece will miss Kostas Papanikolaou and Loukas Mavrokefalidis. So, Croatia is in a great form and has a big momentum, whereas Greeks' motivation is in doubt, since they will have to ask too much from opponents, even though they win and they'll miss the starting SF, best defensive player in perimeter and a back up big man. I know, I rated Greeks much better team then Croats, in my pre tournament rankings, but I have to update my thoughts, considering the recent form, momentum and Greeks' missings. Croatia(+3) 5/10 @ 1.917 Finland - Slovenia Finns were incredibly impressive in first round, but as the things get more serious, they clearly started to struggle at the offensive end. They got destroyed consecutive times against Spain and Croatia and they're out of the tournament. Hosts bounced back from losing two straight, by consecutive victories in second round, with convincing outplays against solid teams like Italy and Greece. Especially against Greece, despite not getting help from any of the role players, G.Dragic put up great numbers to clinch the W. That was out of characteristics of this Slovenian team and it should be a great boost for them to escape from a day, in which only a single player performed impressive in the offensive end. My only concern is that I think, Slovenia's finishing point will be known before this game, so obviously some starters may get rested, but they will have one, or two full days to rest after today, so I don't expect coach B.Maljkovic to play with a rotation which might eventually kill entire momentum behind the team, in the home court. I'm sure line would've been much closer to 20's, if this was an important game for Slovenia. But, it's not an important game for Finland, neither and depending on the results of early games, this might become an important game for Slovenia and it would became impossible to find this line, then. It's not a play for the guys who like safe picks. But, I'm taking it and posting it, therefore. Slovenia(-11.5) 5/10 @ 1.952

[sn0ow]

Re: EuroBasket 2013 - 2nd Round I would rather wait with handicap on Slovenia, if you remember game against Poland you know what I'm talking about. If Croatia will win against Greece there's nothing to fight for Slovene and they might not cover -11.5... I don't remember if they won any game in this tournament by more than 11.5 points. It's all about approach here :)

[mcege]

Re: EuroBasket 2013 - 2nd Round Croatia - Greece: 92-88 Finland - Slovenia: 76-92 End of second round, it was a terrible round betting wise, tomorrow is a new day, anyway... 19W 0V 15L 145u staked +8.867​u %6.115 ROI