mcege Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 I like eight plays from first day card and for couple of them public seems to agree with me, lines started to move already, so I'm posting them now. Also, a fresh injury came out today for an another, it seems like nobody knows about it yet, so I'll post that play, too. I'll post the other bets, tomorrow night. I use flat 5/10 stakes (1 stake being %2 of my bank...), but since this is the first day of the tournament and I happened to like lots of plays, Iâ€™ll reduce it to 3 stakes. Serbia â€“ Lithuania Not having Milos Teodosic is a big blow, for sure. But, Serbs, once again, seem to obtain a good transition. This is one another solid team, with a legendary coach. Nenad Krstic is a vulnerable defensive player, but coach Ivkovic manages to compensate his weakness and with couple solid strech fours and a really solid back up for him, namely Rasko Katic, Serbians have one of the best frontcourt rotations of the championship. Rising star Nemanja Nedovic looked sharp during preparation period and his backcourt is full of solid outside shooters with solid defensive skills and consistency. This might seem as an unexperienced side, but thatâ€™ll hurt them in later stages, not now. Lithuanians are also coming with a nice squad, as Nba bigs Jonas Valanciunas and Donatas Motiejunas are with them. Their main problem is point guard Mantas Kalnietis and thatâ€™ll cost them to reach silverware. Heâ€™s one of the most inconsistent European guards with decision making, which prevents him to make the big career move. I expect these two teams to be absolutely evenly matched, as Serbians will have answers for Lithuaniansâ€™ shooter bigâ€™s . Linas Kleiza may become the difference maker, but he wonâ€™t be enough for a comfortable win. Lithuanians to win by one, or couple balls. Serbia (+5.5) 3/10 @ 1.962 Russia â€“ Italy Losing Stefano Mancinelli and Daniel Hackett made official that Italians wonâ€™t go too far. Both are spiritual players, doing the hard work and influences the team morale. Danilo Gallinari and Andrea Bargnani are already not with the team and this Italian team seems really limited at some positions. But, they have a decent backcourt rotation, one productive big Marco Cusin and couple unorthodox players, whoâ€™ll create match up problems to most of the teams. Coach Simone Pianigiani got embarrased at Fenerbahce and couldnâ€™t produce anything solid with NT until 2009. Heâ€™s under some pressure, so I expect him to get the best out of some unknown, local players. On the other hand, Russians are in bigger mess. They have a very limited squad, Aleksey Shved is the only shining name from their list. But, heâ€™ll be dutied to lead the team, which simply doesnâ€™t fit with his style. They have a really limited frontcourt, both quality and quantity wise. Vitaliy Fridzon and Sergey Monya are ok players, but other then those three, this is a really limited squad. After the head of federation changed, Fotis Katsikaris resigned, it wonâ€™t be a good sign to change the coach that soon from a championship, as well. They donâ€™t have magical David Blatt anymore, they donâ€™t have players like Andrei Kirilenko, Sasha Kaun, Viktor Khryapa, Andrey Vorontsevich...Theyâ€™re just lucky to be a relatively easy group. Both teams are with problems and I donâ€™t see anything seperates them clearly. Italy (+4) 3/10 @ 1.962 Turkey â€“ Finland Turkish team is coming to this tournament with numerous problems. SG Oner Onan left Slovenia today, although heâ€™s not my favourite player, he still definitely was the most consistent performer for NT in recent years. Ender Arslan will start at PG and heâ€™s a terrible one with very poor decision making and physical vulnerabilities. His back up Dogus Balbay is a great one on one defender and a very athletic guy, but he sucks at with shooting from perimeter, which makes him incredibly limited at half court offense. Teamâ€™s ultimate star Hedo Turkoglu is coming after a terrible Nba season, it wasnâ€™t known until almost last minute, if Fiba will let him play, since he got suspension from Nba because of performance enhancing drugs, he didnâ€™t sharp at all in latest friendlies, he definitely needs some time with the team to get sharper. His back up Emir Preldzicâ€™s career is in downfall. Turkey supposedly has a great frontcourt, but Omer Asik is still very raw at the offensive end, Semih Erden does nothing but to keep dissapointing and Oguz Savas lacks huge mobility for this level. Ersan Ilyasova is hell of a player, if heâ€™s at his day, otherwise heâ€™s a pain in the ass. Despite having his years in past, Bogdan Tanjevic occassionally takes silly actions in every single game and Turkey sucks traditionally if the championship is not held in Turkey. (WC at Japan was an exception, the expectations were very low, because Turkey went there with a really limited squad, on paper.) Finns had an impressive EuroBasket 2011 campaign and they have a promising squad. They led by couple really good guards, Petteri Koponen and Sasu Salin. Gerald Lee is definitely a solid player, who brings post game at the offensive end. They have three vastly experienced players who wonâ€™t let this team to break into pieces that early in the competition, namely Hanno Mottola, Antti Nikkila and Teemu Rannikko and almost all other players have over average Ncaa careers. With evolutionary German coach Henrik Dettman in bench, this Finland team is certainly not pushovers. They produced solid performances against teams like France and Lithuania at friendlies. Turkey to win by couple baskets, or even not win at all. Finland (+9) 3/10 @ 1.935 All plays are taken from pinnacle. GL! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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