EuroBasket 2013 - day 1

[mcege]

I like eight plays from first day card and for couple of them public seems to agree with me, lines started to move already, so I'm posting them now. Also, a fresh injury came out today for an another, it seems like nobody knows about it yet, so I'll post that play, too. I'll post the other bets, tomorrow night. I use flat 5/10 stakes (1 stake being %2 of my bank...), but since this is the first day of the tournament and I happened to like lots of plays, I’ll reduce it to 3 stakes. Serbia – Lithuania Not having Milos Teodosic is a big blow, for sure. But, Serbs, once again, seem to obtain a good transition. This is one another solid team, with a legendary coach. Nenad Krstic is a vulnerable defensive player, but coach Ivkovic manages to compensate his weakness and with couple solid strech fours and a really solid back up for him, namely Rasko Katic, Serbians have one of the best frontcourt rotations of the championship. Rising star Nemanja Nedovic looked sharp during preparation period and his backcourt is full of solid outside shooters with solid defensive skills and consistency. This might seem as an unexperienced side, but that’ll hurt them in later stages, not now. Lithuanians are also coming with a nice squad, as Nba bigs Jonas Valanciunas and Donatas Motiejunas are with them. Their main problem is point guard Mantas Kalnietis and that’ll cost them to reach silverware. He’s one of the most inconsistent European guards with decision making, which prevents him to make the big career move. I expect these two teams to be absolutely evenly matched, as Serbians will have answers for Lithuanians’ shooter big’s . Linas Kleiza may become the difference maker, but he won’t be enough for a comfortable win. Lithuanians to win by one, or couple balls. Serbia (+5.5) 3/10 @ 1.962 Russia – Italy Losing Stefano Mancinelli and Daniel Hackett made official that Italians won’t go too far. Both are spiritual players, doing the hard work and influences the team morale. Danilo Gallinari and Andrea Bargnani are already not with the team and this Italian team seems really limited at some positions. But, they have a decent backcourt rotation, one productive big Marco Cusin and couple unorthodox players, who’ll create match up problems to most of the teams. Coach Simone Pianigiani got embarrased at Fenerbahce and couldn’t produce anything solid with NT until 2009. He’s under some pressure, so I expect him to get the best out of some unknown, local players. On the other hand, Russians are in bigger mess. They have a very limited squad, Aleksey Shved is the only shining name from their list. But, he’ll be dutied to lead the team, which simply doesn’t fit with his style. They have a really limited frontcourt, both quality and quantity wise. Vitaliy Fridzon and Sergey Monya are ok players, but other then those three, this is a really limited squad. After the head of federation changed, Fotis Katsikaris resigned, it won’t be a good sign to change the coach that soon from a championship, as well. They don’t have magical David Blatt anymore, they don’t have players like Andrei Kirilenko, Sasha Kaun, Viktor Khryapa, Andrey Vorontsevich...They’re just lucky to be a relatively easy group. Both teams are with problems and I don’t see anything seperates them clearly. Italy (+4) 3/10 @ 1.962 Turkey – Finland Turkish team is coming to this tournament with numerous problems. SG Oner Onan left Slovenia today, although he’s not my favourite player, he still definitely was the most consistent performer for NT in recent years. Ender Arslan will start at PG and he’s a terrible one with very poor decision making and physical vulnerabilities. His back up Dogus Balbay is a great one on one defender and a very athletic guy, but he sucks at with shooting from perimeter, which makes him incredibly limited at half court offense. Team’s ultimate star Hedo Turkoglu is coming after a terrible Nba season, it wasn’t known until almost last minute, if Fiba will let him play, since he got suspension from Nba because of performance enhancing drugs, he didn’t sharp at all in latest friendlies, he definitely needs some time with the team to get sharper. His back up Emir Preldzic’s career is in downfall. Turkey supposedly has a great frontcourt, but Omer Asik is still very raw at the offensive end, Semih Erden does nothing but to keep dissapointing and Oguz Savas lacks huge mobility for this level. Ersan Ilyasova is hell of a player, if he’s at his day, otherwise he’s a pain in the ass. Despite having his years in past, Bogdan Tanjevic occassionally takes silly actions in every single game and Turkey sucks traditionally if the championship is not held in Turkey. (WC at Japan was an exception, the expectations were very low, because Turkey went there with a really limited squad, on paper.) Finns had an impressive EuroBasket 2011 campaign and they have a promising squad. They led by couple really good guards, Petteri Koponen and Sasu Salin. Gerald Lee is definitely a solid player, who brings post game at the offensive end. They have three vastly experienced players who won’t let this team to break into pieces that early in the competition, namely Hanno Mottola, Antti Nikkila and Teemu Rannikko and almost all other players have over average Ncaa careers. With evolutionary German coach Henrik Dettman in bench, this Finland team is certainly not pushovers. They produced solid performances against teams like France and Lithuania at friendlies. Turkey to win by couple baskets, or even not win at all. Finland (+9) 3/10 @ 1.935 All plays are taken from pinnacle. GL!

[mcege]

Re: EuroBasket 2013 - day 1 Another line started to move, so no need to wait more, as limits are ok already. Slovenia – Czech Republic Hosts will obviously want to start with a statement, but I believe Czechs are not the best fit for that, at all. Coach Bozidar Maljkovic definitely had his time, but after a terrible Euro 2011 campaign, it’s illogical him to keeping his seat and now, he’ll not have his best player Erazem Lorbek and go-to-guy Jaka Lakovic is not clicking anymore, at all. They’re without couple of reliable hands to produce points from low post, team leader Goran Dragic had never been tested at this level as first option and Slovenia arguably has the worst ever squad. They always had been an underachieving country, until Lorbek and Lakovic showed that they have some balls, but first is not with the team and the other is 35. Czech team is a versatile team, their biggest missing is depth at frontcourt. They have been really inconsistent during friendly games, but I believe they’ll improve. They’re a quick tempo team which is led by a great floor general, has running big’s and solid outside shooters. Slovenia will have the size advantage, but not having a decent around post finisher will not bother the Czechs at all. Hosts will start by winning, but it’ll be more difficult then expected. Slovenia to win 77-70. Czech Rep. (+13) 3/10 @ 1.99 from pinnacle, i'll stop to write that from now on, as you already understood, I'm taking everything from them.

[mcege]

Re: EuroBasket 2013 - day 1 Latvia – Bosnia & Herzegovina Bosnians led by guard Zackary Wright, who is an up tempo player, with excellent ball distribution abilities. He got close to double digit assist per game numbers, when his team was scoring 92 points per game, at qualification campaign. Bosnians’ offensive scheme mostly depends on his creativity at transition offense, as team’s biggest star Mirza Teletovic is an excellent shooter, stretch four. Besides Teletovic, Nihad Djedovic is also a capable scorer, with ability to shoot from perimeter and creating his own shot. Other role players like Muhamed Pasalic, Nemanja Gordic and Edin Kavcic are also players with offensive potential. Latvians also scored 81.88 ppg in the same group with Bosnians, during that qualification campaign (the games between these two teams ended 87-84 and 80-64...). It’s a quiet young, guard oriented team. Biggest stars of the team are guards like Janis Blums, Armand Skele and Dairis Bertans. Also, almost all bigs have capability to shoot from perimeter. Both teams had often been overish teams in past tournaments, it’s the highest set total line for a reason, definitely. But, unless one of the teams shoot terribly, I still believe it’s not high enough. Bosnia to win 87-83. Over 158.5 3/10 @ 1.935 Spain – Croatia Spain doesn’t have Juan Carlos Navarro and Marc Gasol, but it’s still hell of a team. They undoubtedly have the best backcourt rotation and it’s obvious they’ll have two guards on court, for every seconds of the games. They have the two most creative players of entire championships, they have a solid scorer Rudy Fernandez and solid producers from perimeter Alex Mumbru and Fernando San Emetario, in the wings. Both PF’s Victor Claver and Pablo Aguilar are stretch fours, which will give enough space for crafty center Marc Gasol to bring his skill set around the post. Despite not having Navarro and older Gasol, Spain definitely has the best offensive potential. New coach Juan Antonio Orenga’s last club season was 2005-2006 with Estudiantes and total points per game average of his team at that season was 164.7. Croatia is one of most unorganized teams I saw at friendly games, I definitely expect them to dissapoint and exit early, with Roko Ukic in the leading role. Marko Tomas is out and it’s a blow at the defensive end mostly. Despite being a limited and simply bad team, Croats still have some capable big men like Ante Tomic and Dario Saric, one mobil guard with athletic abilities Dontaye Draper and couple perimeter players like Bojan Bogdanovic and Krunoslav Simon. There is some offensive potential. Spain traditionally starts championships in a relaxed mode and get better as thing get serious, so I’m not expecting a defensive intensity at top level, for every single minute of the game. Spain to win 88-76. Over 151 3/10 @ 1.952 Israel – Great Britain Brits don’t have Luol Deng, Pops Mensah Bonsu and Joel Freeland, also only promising player on paper, Daniel Clark couldn’t participate pre tournament workouts because of injury. Eric Boateng was a good prospect, when he was at high school, but his college and pro years are very far from impressing. Until 11th of August, GB played seven friendlies in order to prepare Euro2013 and averaged 62.29 points per game and never scored more then 68. I seriously doubt them to score 65+ points against Israel, as well. Israeli team will suprise people, when they meet with powerhouses, but when they’re such favourite, I don’t think, they’ll impress a lot. They lack depth, they have some really talented players like Omri Casspi and Yogev Ohayon, couple good players who had numerous mediocre season with their clubs, like Lior Eliyahu and Yotam Halperin and one reliable, athletic inside presence Alex Tyus. They don’t have the material to dominate the game, they’re more of an underdog type team, and coach will definitely try to distribute the playing time to 10-11 players. That’ll cause them to occassionally play with offensively limited players, during the game. Israel to win 78-64. Under 148.5 3/10 @ 1.98 Greece – Sweden After prooving his coaching abilities with Cantu, Andrea Trinchieri is awarded with the chance to change his fortunes until eternity. I’m a huge fan of him and I certainly believe, he’ll work well with Greek NT and I certainly doubt them to have a hard time to beat Sweden. But, spread seems to set couple points big for my taste. Swedish team is full of hard working, defensive minded players, except Gaddefors brothers. Jonas Jerebko and Jeffery Taylor are the stars of this team, both are defensive assets. Moreover, Taylor seemed to improve his outside play, as he averaged 20 ppg during Summer League 2013. Sweden is a quite athletic team, which I expect not to fit Greek squad, at all. Greeks don’t need an incedible start, they’d been always a team which gets better and better as they progress during the tournaments. They don’t have depth at guard positions, Trinchieri built his team like that and Nick Calathes had been withdrawn from squad in order to prepare for Nba, which won’t make any good against Swedes, who are also short in guard positions, but has plenty of bodies to play at forward positions. They don’t have any match for Ioannis Bourousis, but he’s coming from couple mediocre seasons and his conditioning had never been good enough to play 25+ minutes, on regular basis, so Trinchieri will not overuse him at the very first game of this long tournament. Greece to win by 16. Sweden (+20.5) 3/10 @ 1.935

[McNasara]

Re: EuroBasket 2013 - day 1 Mate welcome to the forum and congrats for a great analysis :clap :welcome

[mcege]

Re: EuroBasket 2013 - day 1 Day 1 Recap: Latvia - Bosnia&Herzegovina: 86-75 +2.805 Spain - Croatia: 68-40 -3 Israel - Great Britain: 71-75 +2.94 Greece - Sweden: 79-51 -3 Slovenia - Czech Republic: 62-60 +2.97 Serbia - Lithuania: 63-56 +2.886 Russia - Italy: 69-76 +2.886 Turkey - Finland: 55-61 +2.805 EuroBasket 2013 stats: 6W 0V 2L 24u staked +11.322​u %47.175 ROI

[sstari]

Re: EuroBasket 2013 - day 1 Damn bro you really know your stuff. Keep it up! Samo napred :D