UFC Fight Night

[UFC]

Got a fair few UFC events coming up and I can't wait. Starting with UFC Fight Night tonight. Quite a few close matchups tonight, which is always good as it provides good odds. Bets for tonight: Paddy Power UFC KO Special: Condit and Tavarez both win by KO 4/1 - Really impressed with these odds from Paddy Power, think it's roughly 3.5/1 with the two combined in a standard bet. Tavarez is a bit of a grinder and likes a decision victory, although he does pack a punch, and to be honest, Bubba McDaniel can't take many punches, wouldn't be surprised to see this go to decision, but Bubba is awful and it wouldn't take much to see him give up and the ref to stop the fight (considering Bubba's chin holds up). As for Kampmann, 4/6 of his losses have come by KO/TKO, his first fight with Condit did go to the scorecards (split decision win), but Condit is a much better fighter than he was 4 years ago and has something to prove after losing 2 straight (to arguably the best two fighters in the division in the champ GSP and number one contender Hendricks). With it being 5 rounds, I just see it giving Condit more time to find the finish, which I expect to see in rounds 2 or 3. All in all, really good odds of 4/1. Kelvin Gastelum by Submission 7/1 - Really impressed with Gastelum throughout The Ultimate Fighter, holds a professional record of 6-0 with half of these wins by submission, added to his reign in the house of 2/4 wins also coming by submission. Melancon is a decent fighter and both his losses have come by decision, with stepping in on short notice, i'd like to think Gastelum will be the more prepared fighter and won't be scared to take this to the ground, and with a track record of 50% of his fights winning by submission, I can't pass up these odds of 7/1. Court Mcgee by Submission 7/1 - Pretty similar reasons to Gastelum, 7/15 of Mcgee's fights have ended by submission, great success rate. Whittaker has impresed me with his time on TUF, but from what i've seen, he seems a one dimensional fighter. Nothing suggests he has much of a ground game or is able to fight off his back, and I'm sure whilst Mcgee might be willing to stand and trade, he may have to resort to taking Whittaker down and testing him on the ground. Would expect Mcgee stands more chance of submitting Whittaker rather than finishing him by KO/TKO. And finally, my accumulator with Bet365 of: Thatch Andrews Tavarez McGee Gastelum Condit @ 8.86/1 Explanations above for 4/6 of these fighters + Dylan Andrews impressed me massively on TUF and looked great on his UFC debut, expect him to take Abedi down and show some vicious ground and pound, likely to finish him in the 1st/2nd by KO/TKO. As for Brandon Thatch, holds a record of 9-1, boasting an 8 fight winning streak going into his UFC debut, all wins have been first round finishes and I think he's barely had 10 minutes in the octagon from all his wins. Justin Edwards isn't too bad a fighter and certainly impressed with his last win against Josh Neer, but this seems like a step-in fight, UFC like to hype fighters up, providing Thatch can cope with the nerves of his UFC debut, it seems this has been set up to build him some valuable experience in the UFC and to hopefully keep his streak running. Other than that, a few more singles which seem decent odds to me based on previous fights i've seen, which i'll probably have small singles on, all with Bet365: Zak Cummings @ 4/5 Darren Elkins @ 13/10 Rafael Dos Anjos @ 11/10

[Ronnie]

Re: UFC Fight Night Some nice shouts there, Welcome to PuntersLounge :ok

[UFC]

Re: UFC Fight Night Cheers Ronnie! Made a killing on that card overall. The three paddy power bets were all low stakes and based on pure value, still made some profit off them though with the 7/1 shot of Gastelum by Submission coming in! Bit disappointed with how Tavares took the fight, Bubba was just running away at every opportunity, feel Tavares could have put him away whenever he wanted in the first two rounds but never mind. Plus the 8.86/1 accumulator winning and all three value fighters winning as well! Will try and get a post up for tomorrow's event, will struggle to find anyway near as much value, but there's still a few to be had, think it's overall a much tougher card to call and will struggle to make any kind of substantial profit but it's worth a shot!