Vuelta Espana 2013

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2013 edition starting saturday. It should be the most exciting and open race in years with no Froome, Contador or Wiggins. It has 12 uphill finishes this year :eek which should make for a good spectacle. There are questions marks over all the favourites with fatigue being the main issue for Valverde 9/2 and Rodriguez 3/1, Nibali 9/4 says his main goal is the Worlds, but surely he will go for this as he would be the clear favourite if so. At the moment I can't decide on one of them. The next two in the betting interest me Henao 12/1 and Betancur 18/1, Henao is team leader for sky this year and has the backing of Uran, he has had a good prep race for this and looks perfectly primed to go well. Betancour hasn't been seen on the big stage since his excellent 3rd in the Giro he has the potential to be anything. I think he will go well. Of the rest Basso 20/1 and Sanchez 20/1 are too old for a shot at the podium. Uran is only in a support role, Majka 66/1 could be interesting at a big price had a good Giro and looks to be in good shape for this, Mollema price looks huge as well, he had a great tour but it did take a lot out of him. I think Rodriguez will win the points as the stages should suit his style, EBH has a good e/w chance as well 16/1 bet 365. The KOM has all the GC favourites near the top, Anton at 40/1 is of interest, if he abandons GC hopes he has a great chance of winning this. Of the favourites I'd have to go for Rodriguez again, he should gobble up a lot of points in those short climbs. I think Saxo will win the team, I wouldn't have moviestar or Astana at those prices, Euskatel look the big danger with AG2R a good outside bet for a top 3 finish. A speculative bet in the rider to win most stages category Tyler Farrar at 125/1. On form (which he is not at the moment) he is the best sprinter in this by far. If he could get back to anything near form he should be able to win at least 2 stages which should be good enough to dead heat. Unless Rodriguez is in serious form 2 stages should be the maximum anyone wins. A few value top ten's at odds against. Mollema 5/4 done a great Tour and unless his legs completely give in, he should top 10. Uran 5/4 doing domistique for Haneo but he should top 10 great climber. Nieve 7/2 looks to have a chance great riding in the 3rd week of Tour and Euskatel will want to do well here. A word on the Irish boys Roche is dreaming about a top 5 in the papers dream on. He should just concentrate on stage wins, if he does I still can't see him winning one. Martin has a terrible team with him so his GC hopes are out the window. I think he will win a stage somewhere which will be great. Outright 1pt e/w Betancour 18/1 skybet 0.5 pts Majka 66/1 bet 365 1.5 Haneo 12/1 bet 365 Points Classification 7 pt win Rodriguz 5/2 >Boyles 1.5 pt e/w EBH 16/1 bet 365 KOM 1pt e/w Anton 40/1 >boyles 3 pt win Rodriguez 11/2 bet 365 Team Classification 3 pt win Saxo 3/1 >Boyles 1pt e/w AG2R 14/1 >Boyles Rider to win most stages 1 pt winTyler Farrar 125/1 VC Top 10 3pt win Mollema 5/4 bet 365 3pt win Uran 5/4 bet 365 1.5 pt win Nieve 7/2 VC.

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Re: Vuelta Espana 2013 First stage is a team TT later this evening. Omega Quickstep are worthy favourites and should win. Martin, De Weert and Vandewalle are really strong and they should be too strong. I think the best e/w value lies with Radioshack. I think they will go well in this. I couldn't be having Astana at their price. Belkin could go well at a bigger price. I'll be laying into Quickstep though and Belkin and Radioshack for the e/w value. 5pt win Omega Quickstep 6/4 boyles 1.5 pts e/w Radioshack 8/1 ladbrokes 1st 2 1/4 odds. 0.75 pts e/w Belkin 25/1 boyles first 3 1/5 odds

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Re: Vuelta Espana 2013 Radioshack take second so small loss overall. Omega left be down. A montain top finish today which is great. Valverde and Rodriguez are clear favourites. I can't seperate rate them really, if I had to I'd go with Rodriguez. A couple I like at bigger prices Betancour 25/1 boyles. He will like this finish as well and his price is way too big. Henao at 10/1 is my other pick again the finish should suit. One at huge odds who might surprise is Cardosa at 100/1. He said he wants to get into a break and win this so worth a punt at those odds. 1 pt e/w Betancour 25/1 boyles 2pt e/w Haneo 10/1 hills 0.5 pts e/w Cardosa 100/1 hills.

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Re: Vuelta Espana 2013 None of the big guns performed yesterday, Roche took a well deserved victory. The finish should be exciting again today. Valverde is favourite but I taught Rodriguez would be 2nd favourite, he can be got at a tasty 18/1 with bet 365. The winner should come out of the top 23 from yesterday. Ulissi at 12/1 interests me as well, he was the only one to stay with Valverde and Purito yesterday, he clearly is in form and the finish should suit. I always pick one at a bigger price, Pinot at 125/1 it is. He done well yesterday and will want to make up for an awful Tour, so he is worth a punt. 1.5pt e/w Rodriguez 18/1 bet 365 1pt e/w Ulissi 12/1 bet 365 0.5 pts e/w Pinot 125/1 boyles 0.25 pts e/w Kiserlovski 150/1 boyles

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Re: Vuelta Espana 2013 Rodriguez got me the e/w money yesterday, they left Horner off for the win, which was crazy. Anything can happen today and it is very hard to predict, a break could stay away or it could come back together. Going by the betting, they think it will come back, but I could see the Meersman the favourite being dropped. We hit that climb from last year with the 30 % gradient with 30 K to go, that should be fun anyway. The finish is slightly uphill so Gilbert has a great chance today. I also think LL Sanchez has a good chance, he looks to be in form and this is a stage he can go well in. Again at the price Rodriguez looks value again, I think he is been underestimated. My big outsider for today is Huzarski, he is in form and is a bit of an unknown so he could be anything. He should be there at the end. 1pt win Gilbert 8/1 Bwin 1pt e/w LL Sanchez 33/1 bet victor 0.5 pts e/w Rodriguez 50/1 bet 365. 0.25 pts e/w Huzarski 125/1 bet 365

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Re: Vuelta Espana 2013 A good days cycling yesterday that climb 30 K out was good fun to watch, some riders had to get off and walk it. Moreno won the stage, it has been a very unpredictable race this year so far, with none of the favourites in each stage being in the top 3. It has been great racing though and is and will be more exciting than the Tour. Today is another lumpy stage where anything can happen, a break could stay away but I think the sprinter teams will take them back. I don't think the pure sprinters will be their though and EBH, Meersman and Mathews all have great chances. A couple of outside picks that could go well are Bole, and Roux, they are not pure sprinters but can sprint and the terrain should suit today. 1.5pt e/w Meersman 9/1 boyles 0.5 pts e/w Bole 80/1 boyles 0.5 pts e/w Roux 80/1 boyles

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Re: Vuelta Espana 2013 Meersman finishes 3rd so a small profit for the day, the others finished 7th and 10th. Matthews won with ease yesterday in a sprint. He is favourite for today but is very short. I'd rather look for e/w value. I taught Richeze done very well yesterday in finishing a fast 2nd to Matthews, so the 12/1 looks great value. Farrar, EBH and Meersman weren't as good as I taught they would be. Argos have a good leadout team and Arndt is worth a shot at 16/1. If they can get into the last corner first he should win this. My outside bet if it is a break Schorn at 100/1 1.5 pts e/w Richeze 12/1 bet 365 1.5 pts e/w Arndt 16/1 Hills. 0.25 pts e/w Schorn 100/1 >PP

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Re: Vuelta Espana 2013 Another small profit yesterday with Richeze coming 2nd. Mathews could only manage 6th. We have another flat stage again today and we have the usual suspects again. Mathews is too short again as he is below the 4/1 e/w value line. He got it wrong yesterday with the lead out, so isn't worth the risk. Meersman or EBH don't seem to have the kick to win these stages so they can be ruled out. I have to go for Richeze again, he has done very well in the last couple of days with no leadout team. He has always found the right wheel and been ultra consistent. Farrar looked good again yesterday, he should have some sort of a leadout train today and was fastest of all the finishers yesterday. I'll have a small bet on Graeme Brown as well as my outside pick. 2pts e/w Richeze 8/1 PP 1 pt win Farrar 6/1 PP 0.25 pts e/w Brown 80/1 Boyles

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Re: Vuelta Espana 2013 Another crazy day yesterday with the sprinters ******* up the finish. Today is a mountain top finish and we should see some good action. It is very hard to predict who is going to win today, it could be a break away, an attack from the bottom of the last climb, a reduced sprint or an attack like what Roche and Horner did. Valverde is the favourite but there are some many probabilities 3/1 is no value. I don't think the finish will suit Nibali and Rodriguez will be better suited to other stages. A break could do it so Txurruka, Anton, Coppel, Tiralongo the favourites for this. I think though it will come down to a group of 30 so riders at the finish where anyone can win it. Roche, Horner and Moreno looked strong in their stage wins, so have a chance. Betancour, Uran, Majka, Mollema will all be suited to this finish. It should make for a great finish. At the prices for e/w value I'm going with Mollema 33/1, Betancour 100/1 and Majka 50/1. 1pt e/w Mollema 33/1 1pt e/w Majka 50/1 0.5 pts e/w Betancour 100/1 all PP

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Re: Vuelta Espana 2013 No joy yesterday with more outsider competing for the win. Today has a lovely finish with a serious tough last kilometre, it should suit Rodriguez and Valverde, but the way this vuelta has gone anyone could win it. Moreno, Pinot and Konig have a chance too. At the prices Valverde is good value at 11/1. This finish should suit Henao so he is worth a shot as well. Nieve at 150/1 is my outside pick. He went well in this climb in 2010 and Eusketal will try something. 1pt e/w Valverde 11/1 Boyles 0.75 pts e/w Henao 25/1 bet victor 0.5 pts e/w Nieve 150/1 PP