2013/14 Top 14

[Spankyf]

[TABLE=class: couponTable]

[TR] [TH][/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Friday 16 August 2013[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Montpellier Hérault v RC Toulonnais (19:45 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.72 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 21 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.37 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]104.77 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH][/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Saturday 17 August 2013[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Biarritz Olympique v ASM Clermont Auvergne (14:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.77 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 21 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.24 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]105.90 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Aviron Bayonnais v Oyonnax (17:30 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.11 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 34 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 10 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]102.94 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Bordeaux-Bègles v Stade Toulousain (17:30 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.46 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 21 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.72 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]103.31 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] FC Grenoble v Stade Français (17:30 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.57 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 21 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.8 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]104.13 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Racing Métro v CA Brive (17:30 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.08 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 41 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 13 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]102.44 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] USA Perpignan v Castres Olympique (19:35 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.57 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 21 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.68 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]105.73 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Spankyf]

Re: 2013/14 Top 14 Grenoble Stade Francais Opening rounds are tricky but i'm taking a bet on the home side as the line would have been at least -6 last season. Grenoble are probably an unfashionable team to bet on for the casual punter but they were a goldmine last season for stat's anoraks. They won 11 of their 13 matches, losing to Montpellier and Clermont near the season's close by 7 points each. Interestingly they got themselves up for the last game and put away Toulon by a point. Regarding comings and goings this season the big coup's are Olly Barkley, Brumbies signings Kimlin and Palmer and Caminati from Brive, all very decent acquisitions. This will be a season to consolidate their presence in the top tier and hopefully they won't suffer the second album syndrome. Bigger things are expected from Stade Francais this year after an underwhelming campaign in 2012-13. A lot of older players have moved on/been put out to pasture, and a lot of big names have arrived (Ioane, Steyn, Van der Merwe, Kubriashvili). Certainly you would expect them to be a lot better with that squad but teams don't gel right away. A lot of money has gone in and Pool-Jones did well last year in his debut as head coach to get the team to the Challenge Cup final. However their domestic away form was woeful. Only two victories (against relegated sides Agen & Montois) and an average away handicap of +14 tells the story. In their first three away games they lost to Bayonne, Bordeaux and Grenoble (26-12), none of whom are world beaters. Their final game last campaign saw them thrashed at Biarritz 52-17. Perhaps it was somewhat of a dud match but certainly not a precedent to have them +4 points away to a solid team like Grenoble. With Grenoble's excellent defensive systems working so well for them last year and Stade's poor effort away, I am happy to take a small opening punt on the home team. The FT home cap is good but I will be more inclined to go for the 2nd half cap when it comes out (I expect -2 or -2.5). Grenoble -2 @ 1.91 Coral Grenoble -2 2nd Half Handicap @ 1.91

[Wumpking]

Re: 2013/14 Top 14 Montpellier v Toulon I have Toulon as -3pt favourites for this game based on my ratings. As such, the +3pt handicap start is too tempting to resist. Bet for me is: ​Toulon +3 @ 1.91 Boylesports

[Wumpking]

Re: 2013/14 Top 14 Biarritz v Clermont I have Clermont as -1pt favourites for this game, so will take: Clermont +1pt @ 1.91 Bet365 Bordeaux v Toulouse Toulouse are -5pt in my book, so will take: Toulouse -1pt @ 1.91 Coral

[SteveO]

Re: 2013/14 Top 14 Welcome back Wump, how did your ratings sytem fair last year?

[Wumpking]

Re: 2013/14 Top 14

Welcome back Wump' date=' how did your ratings sytem fair last year?[/quote'] Cheers Steve, it has been a while . . . I've been keeping an ELO ratings database of all the European rugby sides in the Top 14, Aviva and Rabo for the past several years. It would be fair to say I had mixed success with this last year. The biggest problem I have is keeping it up to date so I am able to use the info. I'm hoping this year to be more organised and disciplined! Not a bad start to the season as ratings predicted 2 from 3 and generated a small profit.

[Wumpking]

Re: 2013/14 Top 14 I’ve updated the ratings based on this weekend’s results. Estimated handicaps for next week are: [TABLE=class: grid, width: 531]

[TR] [TD] Date [/TD] [TD] Home Team [/TD] [TD] Away Team [/TD] [TD] Est Home Handicap [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] 23/08/2013 [/TD] [TD] Toulon [/TD] [TD] Racing Metro 92 [/TD] [TD] -9 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] 24/08/2013 [/TD] [TD] Oyonnax [/TD] [TD] Clermont Auvergne [/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] 24/08/2013 [/TD] [TD] Biarritz [/TD] [TD] Montpellier [/TD] [TD] -1 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] 24/08/2013 [/TD] [TD] Castres [/TD] [TD] Grenoble [/TD] [TD] -10 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] 24/08/2013 [/TD] [TD] Perpignan [/TD] [TD] Stade Francais [/TD] [TD] -5 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] 24/08/2013 [/TD] [TD] Toulouse [/TD] [TD] Bayonne [/TD] [TD] -9 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] 24/08/2013 [/TD] [TD] Brive [/TD] [TD] Bordeaux-Begles [/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Spankyf]

Re: 2013/14 Top 14 Great tips Wump, well done. I'm trying to keep a book too but lament there's nothing like football-data for copy and paste rugby stats. I'm also at -9 for Toulon also and agree with the Biarritz, Perpignan & Castres lines. There's an expectation in my mind that Toulouse will be looking to avenge last week's loss and i'm thinking -13 and wouldn't rule out a hammering.

[Wumpking]

Re: 2013/14 Top 14 Thanks Spanky. Good call on the Grenoble bets. There are a few good rugby data sites. The best seems to be espnscrum.com which has some amazing post match stats for the Rabo, Aviva, Heineken, etc. I've been trying to work out how I could use this alongside my ratings but haven't got there yet!

[Wumpking]

Re: 2013/14 Top 14 Early handicaps (from Paddy Power) are out: [TABLE=class: grid, width: 628]

[TR] [TD] Date [/TD] [TD] Home Team [/TD] [TD] Away Team [/TD] [TD] Est Home Handicap [/TD] [TD] Bookies Handicap [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] 23/08/2013 [/TD] [TD] Toulon [/TD] [TD] Racing Metro 92 [/TD] [TD] -9 [/TD] [TD] -8 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] 24/08/2013 [/TD] [TD] Oyonnax [/TD] [TD] Clermont Auvergne [/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD] 8 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] 24/08/2013 [/TD] [TD] Biarritz [/TD] [TD] Montpellier [/TD] [TD] -1 [/TD] [TD] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] 24/08/2013 [/TD] [TD] Castres [/TD] [TD] Grenoble [/TD] [TD] -10 [/TD] [TD] -14 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] 24/08/2013 [/TD] [TD] Perpignan [/TD] [TD] Stade Francais [/TD] [TD] -5 [/TD] [TD] -7 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] 24/08/2013 [/TD] [TD] Toulouse [/TD] [TD] Bayonne [/TD] [TD] -9 [/TD] [TD] -11 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] 24/08/2013 [/TD] [TD] Brive [/TD] [TD] Bordeaux-Begles [/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD] 0 [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] My estimated handicaps are within 1 to 2 points in four of the games, so no bets in any of these matches. As a rule of thumb, I am aiming to only bet where I am getting at least a 3 points differential between mine and the bookies handicaps. Hopefully this will represent value :unsure The only one of potential interest is Castres v Grenoble, with possibly Grenoble with +14. Will give this some thought before placing a bet as am slightly concerned about Grenoble’s away form compared to Castres’ home form Although I do not have enough results data to rate Oyonnax, I am tempted with Clermont -8. Thought that this would have been much higher

[Spankyf]

Re: 2013/14 Top 14 Toulouse Bayonne Toulouse gave away a lot of silly penalties at Bordeaux last Saturday. Of the 8 that Bernard put away for Bordeaux, 2 were utterly avoidable for obstruction and another was one of the softest I’ve ever seen for a late ‘hit’ on the kicker (Talebula’s magic footwork for the Bordeaux try deserves mention). Plenty of rags are writing them off and surely this will motivate Noves’ men, who haven’t turned into the Old Boys 3^rd XV over one away loss by 6. Bayonne benefited from some plenty of Oyonnax naïveté at the breakdown in particular in their 39-11 win. Bayonne took the points in the first and went for the bonus in the 2^nd, which they eventually got with two tries in the last 4 minutes. Bayonne had 3 away wins last season against strugglers Agen, Montois and a 1pt win against Biarritz. They had an average of +15 pts handicap over their 13 away games last season and lost a +12 against Toulouse, Toulon, Clermont, Castres and Bordeaux. Toulouse hammered most teams at home themselves and beat the cap in 8/13. Only one loss to Perpignan by the narrowest of margins. Bayonne scored the fewest tries last season bar Agen & Montois and Toulouse had the 2^nd fewest home conceded tries. Even with Rokocoko and the bulldozer Fonua I don’t think they’ll keep up with a very motivated home team who’ve still got a huge amount of talent in the ranks. Will also take a Gear anytime score providing the odd’s are decent. Toulouse -12 @ 1.91

[Spankyf]

Re: 2013/14 Top 14 [TABLE=class: couponTable]

[TR] [TH][/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Friday 23 August 2013[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]RC Toulonnais v Racing Métro (19:50 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]1.3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]30[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]5.5[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]98.44 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Saturday 24 August 2013[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Oyonnax v ASM Clermont Auvergne (14:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]4.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]26[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]1.22[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]107.72 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Biarritz Olympique v Montpellier Hérault (17:30 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]1.9[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]21[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]2.05[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]105.92 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Castres Olympique v FC Grenoble (17:30 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]1.06[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]41[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]10[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]106.48 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Stade Toulousain v Aviron Bayonnais (17:30 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]1.14[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]34[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]7[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]104.95 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]USA Perpignan v Stade Français (17:30 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]1.28[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]23[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]4[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]107.13 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]CA Brive v Bordeaux-Bègles (19:35 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]1.9[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]21[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]2.2[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]102.60 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Nobber]

Re: 2013/14 Top 14 Spanky, Great write-up, table and spot-on. Very much appreciated. See if you can guess who did a five-team £50 acca. (cunningly left out Perpignan as I thought it looked a little bit dodgy) on my 'certs' only to see it go down at the first hurdle ?

[Wumpking]

Re: 2013/14 Top 14 Great pick on Toulouse Spanky. My estimated handicaps for this weekend's matches are as follows: Date Home Team Away Team Est Home Handicap 30/08/2013 Stade Francais Biarritz -4 31/08/2013 Clermont Auvergne Toulouse -7 31/08/2013 Bordeaux-Begles Castres 4 31/08/2013 Montpellier Brive 31/08/2013 Racing Metro 92 Oyonnax 31/08/2013 Bayonne Perpignan -4 31/08/2013 Grenoble Toulon 3

[Wumpking]

Re: 2013/14 Top 14 I can't seem to format the above table. Sorry if it looks messy. Just to clarify, the handicaps for the home teams are as follows: Stade Francais -4 Clermont -7 Bordeaux +4 Bayonne -4 Grenoble +3

[Spankyf]

Re: 2013/14 Top 14

See if you can guess who did a five-team £50 acca. (cunningly left out Perpignan as I thought it looked a little bit dodgy) on my 'certs' only to see it go down at the first hurdle ?

It was some result, that Clermont one. Watched the highlights and the 2nd try for Oyonnax was an intercept. Those incidents give huge momentum but they still had to win it after that so huge credit to them. Doesn't get easier for Clermont at home to Toulouse this week. A heads up to all that there'll be a set of matches next Wednesday and then again next Saturday the 6th. I'll keep a close eye on the lineups for this weekends games. I think there'll be a couple of teams keeping their front liners for the midweek/weekend matches where they've a better chance of match points.

[Spankyf]

Re: 2013/14 Top 14 Clermont Toulouse Clermont lost to Oyonnax in spectacular fashion. They were behind 20-0 at half time and couldn’t mount a comeback despite a neat couple of tries in the 2nd. As I said above, things could have been very different had they not conceded that intercept try 4 minutes after the Oyonnax pack pushed over for the first. There may have been a dose of complacency involved given Parra didn’t start and Bardy, Bonnaire, King and Kotze weren’t in the 23. All those were involved in their opening 18-22 defeat of Biarritz. People forget how much of an advantage home games are in the Top 14 and Toulouse found out the hard way against Bordeaux. They took their revenge out on hapless Bayonne last matchday but at great cost. They are already looking for medical jokers after they lost both props to injury in that match. 19 year old Baille and Census Johnston are the only first teamers available and in the Marcel Michelin they will be put under huge pressure from the best home side in France. Noves stated the Racing game is the priority and with a number of big players left at home I’m taking Clermont on the -10 while it's available. May look at a first half -ve cap and a Sivivatu try depending on the odds. Clermont -10 @ 1.91

[Wumpking]

Re: 2013/14 Top 14 Stade Francais v Biarritz I've gone for Biarritz +13 here as I have Stade as -4 favourites in my book Biarritz +13 @ 1.91 Betfred

[Wumpking]

Re: 2013/14 Top 14 Stade Francais v Biarritz I've gone for Biarritz +13 here as I have Stade as -4 favourites in my book Biarritz +13 @ 1.91 Betfred

[Nobber]

Re: 2013/14 Top 14 Good call Spanky, the -10 looked pretty good and so it proved.

[Spankyf]

Re: 2013/14 Top 14 [TABLE=class: couponTable]

[TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Wednesday 4 September 2013[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Castres Olympique v Stade Français (17:45 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.2 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 26 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 6 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]103.85 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] ASM Clermont Auvergne v Aviron Bayonnais (18:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.02 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 51 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 15 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]106.67 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Bordeaux-Bègles v Montpellier Hérault (18:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.72 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 21 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.25 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]107.10 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Oyonnax v Biarritz Olympique (18:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.53 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 21 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.5 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]109.98 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] RC Toulonnais v CA Brive (18:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.01 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 81 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 67 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]101.74 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] USA Perpignan v FC Grenoble (18:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.05 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 29 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 12 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]107.02 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Stade Toulousain v Racing Métro (20:05 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.17 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 23 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 5.1 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]109.43 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Spankyf]

Re: 2013/14 Top 14 Toulouse Racing Metro I'm again on Toulouse to do the business at home. They hung in gamely with a lot of front liners absent last Saturday until Clermont pulled away in the final quarter. For an hour they were the better side and Beauxis played a blinder. McAlister, Dusatoir, Picamoles should be returning to the side for this game. Early news is that Sexton will be left in Paris along with a few others (i'm guessing one or both of Mujati & Roberts will stay in Paris). They haven't been impressive so far, falling well short of bookies expectations in both home games (beating both promoted sides by a total of 18 pts, scoring 2 tries and conceding 1) and getting mauled at Toulon. I don't think the new calls, players etc are hitting their notes on the hymn sheet and it's premature to say they're a leading contender. I look forward to seeing where they are in another few months but for a gameweek with 3 matches I think Toulouse have managed their squad to ensure a big win here. Toulouse -10 @ 1.91

[Spankyf]

Re: 2013/14 Top 14 Oyonnax Biarritz Oyonnax have surprised all with their attacking play and fearless defence. Their win at home to Clermont grabbed the headlines but they did well away to Racing without a lot of first team players. There are ten changes from that game and while they’ll miss captain El Abd, the squad selection shows they kept their powder dry last weekend and should be raring to go in this one. Biarritz’ fortunes are quite the opposite. The manner of their defeat to Stade Francais was worrying and despite returning first teamers there are many injuries for this game they could do without (Thomas, Gimenez, Dubarry, Harinordoquy, Synaeghel, Balshaw, Brew, Lund). I’d be wary of writing them off completely (remember the performance against Gloucester in the Amlin last season) but the early momentum in this heavy gameweek is undoubtedly with Oyonnax. I think they are worth a bet. Oyonnax -5 @ 1.91

[Spankyf]

Re: 2013/14 Top 14

Biarritz’ fortunes are quite the opposite. The manner of their defeat to Stade Francais was worrying and despite returning first teamers there are many injuries for this game they could do without (Thomas' date=' Gimenez, Dubarry, Harinordoquy, Synaeghel, Balshaw, Brew, Lund). [/quote'] Need to work on my translation skills: Lund is fit and starts and Oyonnax have 14 changes in the matchday 23 from last game.

[Spankyf]

Re: 2013/14 Top 14 [TABLE=class: couponTable]

[TR] [TH=class: firstColumn]Friday 20 September 2013[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Montpellier Hérault v ASM Clermont Auvergne (19:45 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.53 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 21 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.62 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]108.08 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH][/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Saturday 21 September 2013[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Stade Toulousain v Castres Olympique (14:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.12 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 34 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 6.5 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]107.21 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Biarritz Olympique v FC Grenoble (17:30 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.25 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 23 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]109.35 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] CA Brive v USA Perpignan (17:30 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.57 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 23 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.37 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]110.09 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Racing Métro v Bordeaux-Bègles (17:30 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.02 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 36 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 13 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]108.03 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] RC Toulonnais v Aviron Bayonnais (17:30 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 61 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 31 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]104.37 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Oyonnax v Stade Français (19:35 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.61 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 21 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.3 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]110.14 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Spankyf]

Re: 2013/14 Top 14 Toulon Bayonne What to say about Toulon. As wrote elsewhere they are looking more and more like a World Cup winning XV. It's crazy the money around there but they get results. Best team so far for my money and I think this will be another blowout. No tryscorer prices up but I reckon a punt on Gits is an option. Ali Williams makes his debut along side Bakkies. Bayonne acquired some good signings during the summer but similar to the last campaign they are not scoring tries. It hurts to have the toughest three away encounters so early in the season but they haven't risen to the challenge whatsoever. Toulon's new game plan is great to watch and they have all that power on the bench. I'm betting they'll have too much for Bayonne in the 2nd half. Toulon 2nd half -16 @ 2.1

[Spankyf]

Re: 2013/14 Top 14 Racing Metro Bordeaux Racing haven't been setting the world alight so far from a flair perspective. I would hope they do but the performances have been very solid irrespective. They won at Bayonne last week so they're one of the few sides to get an away result and a certain Jonny Sexton is playing well (on the bench today, the excellent Wisniewski deputising). Performing decently at home without being meeting serious quality: they beat the two promoted sides and Perpignan, who almost snatched a draw. Bordeaux have been entertaining at home beating Toulouse, Castres and Oyonnax but blotting the copybook against Montpellier. Their average away score last year was 15-27 with decent defence (only 13+ losses were at Toulon, Clermont & Paris - also the only teams beating -18). Racing have every reason to be favourites in this game winning both league encounters last season and big ambition but I don't see 18 as a fair handicap given their low try total. As Racing won just 2/6 1st halves to date, i'm giving Bordeaux the benefit of the doubt for the opening 40. Bordeaux +8.5 1st Half @ 1.91

[Spankyf]

Re: 2013/14 Top 14 Stade Francais Montpellier I hope this is more competitive than last Friday’s game where Montpellier came of age and beat Clermont 43-3. Paris have momentum going into this game with an important win at Oyonnax last week (Toulon will hope to repeat the feat there this gameweek). They smashed Biarritz in their opener at their new stadium and picked up 4 pts apiece against Clermont and Brive, who both came away with a defensive bonus point. Looks like Parisse will play again despite a few knocks and the half back pairing of Plisson & Dupuy should play a smart territory game to limit Montpellier’s attacking options. Montpellier have been the team to watch so far along with Toulon. Great tries last match (check out the LNR website for highlights) and they are backing up their title credentials: 17/1 early August down to 8/1 now. They field an unchanged team for this game. They too have won away from home at Bordeaux who already beat Toulouse & Castres, so they mean business. I do think it will be a close affair and I have a similar handicap on my book too. So I’m taking the home side to win but concede the bonus point, as the trend has been for both sides so far. Stade Francais 1-10 @ 2.62

[Spankyf]

Re: 2013/14 Top 14 Champions Castres put up a brave show at Leinster but left with nothing to show and took out their angst on hapless Biarritz last matchday winning 39-0. Sitting in 9^th they aren’t looking the same team as with the previous coaching ticket but retain a lot of quality in their ranks. A lot of re-signed contracts and a modest top 6 target means they’re just looking to bed in the new coaching staff and squad. 5/5 home wins with the bonus points conceded to Racing & Toulon shows they’re still strong and have one of the best defence’ in the league. Clermont are putting out a strong back seven but the front row is second string and medical joker Fritz Lee makes his debut at 8. They aren’t the force of old with a 7 pt win against Brive (handicap was -22) and the same margin at home to Quins in the Heineken Cup. Clermont covered the +5 just the once so far this campaign (against Biarritz) and Castres have covered in 4/5 games (only Racing came closer losing 19-15). Clermont look a little vulnerable with a weakend pack against a team beginning to find momentum. Castres -5 @ 1.90

[Spankyf]

Re: 2013/14 Top 14 Racing Metro Montpellier Big game this. Racing were lambasted for an awful showing at Clermont last week with the 2nd's getting a public dressing down from their coach. I believe the reality is that they are no great shakes and the score wasn't too different early in the season at Toulon - where they had a first choice XV. They have struggled to put teams away at home and have an average home handicap of -6, half the league average of -12 (mostly down to their low scoring, their defence is ok). Sexton is out tomorrow with an hamstring injury from the Autumn series. Montpellier looking really good again this season. Half backs both playing wonderful stuff similar to how the national team of the 80's & 90's used to play. Probably explains why they miss out on selection with the conservative style employed by most French teams nowadays. They will look to release Ranger at wing and Ebersohn who will look to impress their new club and run hard at the defence. Add in the always destructive Godgodzilla at 8 and Montpellier have a great chance to add to their away win at Bordeaux. Montpellier have beaten the +7 in 4/5 and one a game as mentioned. Racing won all 6 at home in the league but only beat a -7 once (vs Oyonnax). I will take Montpellier to get the defensive bp and a win. Montpellier +7 @ 1.9 Montpellier win @ 3.6