waynecoyne Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 Apologies if there is a thread somewhere else but i couldn't find it. This starts in Russia at the weekend. I have been looking at the prices to try to find some value. Womens 800m I saw Brenda Martinez win in London and was impressed. She won in 1.58.19 and finished with a devastating final kick leaving the rest in her wake. Looking at the current odds she is 14/1 with Ladbrokes which looks a cracking price. Savinova the reigningworld and olympic championis about 3 to 1 on. She ran 12 times in 2011, 6 times in 2012 and only 2 times in 2013. At the price she is not worth backing. Niyonsaba is second in some lists distorting the market but is injured and will not run. She is the fastest this year: 1.56.72 Niyonsaba 1.57.26 Niyonsaba (Paris) 1.57.64 Akkaoui (Paris) 1.57.75 Johnson Montano (Paris) 1.58.18 Martinez 1.58.19 Martinez Johnson Montano usually plays catch as catch can and is pipped at the finish. If she runs more conservatively she could medaloreven win. Akkaoui has momentum and will be the fastest in the field this year. They can be backed at 25 and 16 respectively with Stan James and are worth small savers. Martinez is my main pick. She has only this year converted to 800 from1500 probably as it gives her her best chance of a medal. She usually takes it easy over the first lap winds up on the back straiight and then kicks for home. There is a danger someone like Johnson Montano could be too far ahead and not reeled in but i'll try to cover that with the saver. Recommended bets: Womens 800m 10 pts Brenda Martinez 14/1 Ladbrokes 2 pts Akkaoui 16/1 Stan James 1 pt win Johnson Montano Stan James 25/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waynecoyne Posted August 10, 2013 Author Share Posted August 10, 2013 Re: WORLD ATHLETICS CHAMPIONSHIP 2013 Mens 10,000 This takes place today with 35 runners including 4 ethiopians. Farah is everyone's favourite and best price 3/10 with the bookies. This may not be the forgone conclusion everyone seems to think it is. The fastest times this year are gebremeskel 26.51.02 and kuma 26.52.85 merga finished 3rd in 26.57.33 in the same race. There is a chance the ethiopians may try to work as a team against farah but this was suggested in the olympic 5,000 and they each ran for themselves, gebremeskel failing to keep with farah at the end of the race. I also think back to the last world championship when an unknown ethiopian jeilan beat farah. Jeilan has not been in form since and i will stick with the 2 fastest in the year. Recommended bet: 4 pts gebremeskel at 6/1 bet 365 2 pts kuma at 22/1 paddy power (25 with sportingbet) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waynecoyne Posted August 10, 2013 Author Share Posted August 10, 2013 Re: WORLD ATHLETICS CHAMPIONSHIP 2013 Mens 800 In the absence of David Rudisha the favourite for this race is Mohammed Aman at 4/5. Aman has run 10 races this year losing only once. Last year he ran 10 times losing twice including when it counted in the olympics finishing in sixth. He is the most likely winner but with the olympics in mind at the prices i would rather oppose him. The three other main contenders are the american duo symmonds and solomon and Souleiman who is mainly a 1500 runner and doubles up. Fastest times this year: Solomon 1.43.27 Aman 1.43.33 Souleiman 1.43.63 Symmonds 1.43.67 Solomon beat symmonds in the us championships but has been beaten twice since by him. Symmonds is a tough competitor and the format may suit. Souleiman is running in the 1500 but this does not start until the 800 has finished so should not affect him in the 800. His 1.43.63 was the 3rd fastest time of the year and he has only run 800 twice prior to the competition. I just favour him over Symmonds. Prices are Aman 4/5 Symmonds 6/1 solomon 7/1 Souleiman 11/1 The heats took place this morning with all the main protagonists progressing. Recommended Bet: 4 pts Souleiman 11/1 betfred Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waynecoyne Posted August 10, 2013 Author Share Posted August 10, 2013 Re: WORLD ATHLETICS CHAMPIONSHIP 2013 Mens110m hurdles This starts tomorrow morning. The class hurdler is aries merritt but he has been injured and is just making his way back. He ran in London but hit a hurdle and did not finish. David Oliver took advantage and won the race. Fastest times this year: and prices oliver 13.03 11/4 parchment 13.05 14 ortega 13.08 20 wilson 13.08 33 merritt 13.09 11/10 if Merritt hurdles well he wins but i would rather take him on at the prices. Oliver is a threat but too short. I will have two small win bets on outsiders: Recommended bets: 2 pts parchment 14/1 hills 2 pts win wilson 33/1 ladbrokes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waynecoyne Posted August 10, 2013 Author Share Posted August 10, 2013 Re: WORLD ATHLETICS CHAMPIONSHIP 2013 Mens 100m w/o Bolt gatlin ran 9.99 in the heats rodgers 9.98 bailey cole 10.02 vicaut 10.06 easing up vicaut is 7 and bailey cole 10 gatlin 10/11 difficult to know how much more they have to give but vicaut and bailey cole could challenge gatlin for 2nd i will try 6pts bailey cole @ 10/1 with stan james they are the only bookie quoting so any better prices on vicaut or bailey cole should be considered when priced up Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waynecoyne Posted August 11, 2013 Author Share Posted August 11, 2013 Re: WORLD ATHLETICS CHAMPIONSHIP 2013 Womens Pole Vault Qualifying is this afternoon. Looking at the prices elena isinbaeva is ridiculously short with some bookies (ladbrokes and hills go 5/4). Unfortunately we can't lay with the bookies and there is little liquidity on betfair. If i could lay at 2/1 i would do. Isinbaeva will retire after these championships and has been in decline for a few years. The outstanding athlete this year has been yarisley silva who has vaulted 4.9,4.85,4.83,4.81,4.81 this year. Next best reigning olympic champion jennifer suhr at 4.80 then isinbaeva 4.78 murer 4.73 savchenko 4.73 spiegelburg 4.71 There is a risk that a vaulter could have a bad day either in qualifying or the final but silva has been consistent all year and is the one to beat. Recommended bet : Yarisley Silva 20pts at 6/4 ladbrokes (17/10 betway) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Puntalot Posted August 11, 2013 Share Posted August 11, 2013 Re: WORLD ATHLETICS CHAMPIONSHIP 2013 100m without Bolt - 10/10 on Gatlin @ 2.00 Stan James Gatlin is a proven big time performer and whilst he probably won't beat Bolt, I just cannot see anyone being good enough to beat him for 2nd place. Sure, Rodgers has looked very fast and is the only clear danger in my book. However, Rodgers has no real big time performances and running well in a semi final, which was made to look better because Bolt fell out of the blocks, is one thing, doing it in a major final is very much another matter. I'd say Gatlin should be about 1.60 for this market, so I'm more than happy to be involved. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waynecoyne Posted August 11, 2013 Author Share Posted August 11, 2013 Re: WORLD ATHLETICS CHAMPIONSHIP 2013 welcome paul i thought i was talking to myself that looks a solid bet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waynecoyne Posted August 11, 2013 Author Share Posted August 11, 2013 Re: WORLD ATHLETICS CHAMPIONSHIP 2013 impressed with symmonds in semi he looked comfortable soulemain all out solomon the danger aman not convincing 8pts symmonds 5/1 bet 365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waynecoyne Posted August 11, 2013 Author Share Posted August 11, 2013 Re: WORLD ATHLETICS CHAMPIONSHIP 2013 100m without Bolt - 10/10 on Gatlin @ 2.00 Stan James Gatlin is a proven big time performer and whilst he probably won't beat Bolt, I just cannot see anyone being good enough to beat him for 2nd place. Sure, Rodgers has looked very fast and is the only clear danger in my book. However, Rodgers has no real big time performances and running well in a semi final, which was made to look better because Bolt fell out of the blocks, is one thing, doing it in a major final is very much another matter. I'd say Gatlin should be about 1.60 for this market, so I'm more than happy to be involved. :ok well done paul Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Puntalot Posted August 11, 2013 Share Posted August 11, 2013 Re: WORLD ATHLETICS CHAMPIONSHIP 2013 Cheers Wayne, good luck with yours. ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waynecoyne Posted August 11, 2013 Author Share Posted August 11, 2013 Re: WORLD ATHLETICS CHAMPIONSHIP 2013 impressed with symmonds in semi he looked comfortable soulemain all out solomon the danger aman not convincing 8pts symmonds 5/1 bet 365 symmonds 8 on unibet price is wrong-nb they dont let you have big stakes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waynecoyne Posted August 11, 2013 Author Share Posted August 11, 2013 Re: WORLD ATHLETICS CHAMPIONSHIP 2013 and 8 with 888sport who seem quite amenable Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlanJenkins2 Posted August 11, 2013 Share Posted August 11, 2013 Re: WORLD ATHLETICS CHAMPIONSHIP 2013 Pity Pinnacle are reluctant to offer odds to win the events - as opposed to head-to-head odds.Reckon it's because athletes can drop out injured. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waynecoyne Posted August 12, 2013 Author Share Posted August 12, 2013 Re: WORLD ATHLETICS CHAMPIONSHIP 2013 Womens 400m Gold and silver look to be between montle and ohourugu third place is up for grabs with krivoshapka and mcrory the next 2 fastest i remember krivoshapka not performing when it mattered in the past and favour mcrory Recommended Bet Buy mcrory 2pts at 4 with sporting index on a 50-25-10 index Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevshat Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 Re: WORLD ATHLETICS CHAMPIONSHIP 2013 Good luck Wayne. Having seen the lane draw I think Natasha Hastings is good value at 9/2 without the main two. She made Ohuruogu work in the semi final and with all the action outside her she can keep her eye on what's going on and pick them off accordingly. Agree though, can't be having the Russian. Especially from the outside lane. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waynecoyne Posted August 12, 2013 Author Share Posted August 12, 2013 Re: WORLD ATHLETICS CHAMPIONSHIP 2013 cheers kev good luck to you also the 110mh looks wide open after the semis merritt may come through if he gets it together, oliver the fav but he hasnt performed when it matters in the past also but any big prices i.e. 20/1 or higher on shubenkov or wilson need to be considered Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waynecoyne Posted August 12, 2013 Author Share Posted August 12, 2013 Re: WORLD ATHLETICS CHAMPIONSHIP 2013 wilson is 3 to buy on 50-25-10 with sporting that looks cheap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waynecoyne Posted August 12, 2013 Author Share Posted August 12, 2013 Re: WORLD ATHLETICS CHAMPIONSHIP 2013 shubenkov around 5 too short wilson 28 with hills 33 bwin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waynecoyne Posted August 12, 2013 Author Share Posted August 12, 2013 Re: WORLD ATHLETICS CHAMPIONSHIP 2013 womens 100m fraser price looks unbeatable 2nd and third look to be between okagbare jeter gardner and stewart recommended bet buy k stewart 2pts at 3 47.1-23.5-9.4 index sporting Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waynecoyne Posted August 12, 2013 Author Share Posted August 12, 2013 Re: WORLD ATHLETICS CHAMPIONSHIP 2013 a quick note on the womens 100mh american champs winner and fastest women this year brianna rollins was complaining about the hurdles being too heavy being made of wood rather than plastic and injured herself in training-hopefully she's fine but a note of caution Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waynecoyne Posted August 12, 2013 Author Share Posted August 12, 2013 Re: WORLD ATHLETICS CHAMPIONSHIP 2013 wilson is 3 to buy on 50-25-10 with sporting that looks cheap that was nice 22pts profit shame the outright didnt come inhe seemed to hit virtually every hurdle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waynecoyne Posted August 13, 2013 Author Share Posted August 13, 2013 Re: WORLD ATHLETICS CHAMPIONSHIP 2013 Mens 1500 This starts tomorrow with 2 kenyans kiprop and kiplagat at the head of the market at 11/10 and 4/1. Souleiman who contests the 800 also is 15/2. Prices then are 20'sand above. Theseraces are often tactical affairs and the heats and semis will be informative.Last years olympics threw up makhloufi and iguider as impressive winners of their semisafter which they could be backed at 14 and 9. Makhloufi the eventual winner does not run here. Iguider came third in the final. souleiman would have the necessary kick but the edge could have been taken off himinthe 800. Recommended Bet : 2pts e/w iguider 25/1 bet 365 Steve downes has put this up as a tip in the racing post and 66 was available for the win but has now disappeared. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waynecoyne Posted August 13, 2013 Author Share Posted August 13, 2013 Re: WORLD ATHLETICS CHAMPIONSHIP 2013 Mens 400mh semis this afternoon michael tinsley was most impressive in qualifying and is a worthy favourite at 11/10 next best to me looked to be jehue gordon who looked better than coulson. he can be backed at evens on betfair for a medal which looks decent value recommended bet: jehue gordon podium finish betfair at evens Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Puntalot Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 Re: WORLD ATHLETICS CHAMPIONSHIP 2013 It's just not the same as the Olympics though is it Wayne? I had several big bets in the Olympics and did really well, but I'm very hesitant to do it in the World, because I know the athletes don't hold it in as high a regard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waynecoyne Posted August 13, 2013 Author Share Posted August 13, 2013 Re: WORLD ATHLETICS CHAMPIONSHIP 2013 i'm not sure paul i hadn't really thought about it. my main gripe would be lack of liquidity on betfair and not many bookies taking ew bets. i've taken a week off work to have a gambling holiday-pretty hedonistic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlanJenkins2 Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 Re: WORLD ATHLETICS CHAMPIONSHIP 2013 Liquidity is pretty thin.Part of the problem is that news can suddenly emerge about important athletes pulling out/being injured - which is why low-margin bookies like Pinnacle and SBO are only betting on head-to-heads - and then only to small money.Bookies like Hills and Ladbrokes can afford to bet on outright events because they filter their clients [ie restrict or ban winnners] and bet to high margins.Other bookies like Bwin,Unibet and PaddyPower do the same. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waynecoyne Posted August 13, 2013 Author Share Posted August 13, 2013 Re: WORLD ATHLETICS CHAMPIONSHIP 2013 i suppose alan you could build into the markets that if someone pulls out bets are void not sure what the rules are on betfair i noticed pinnacle had a market for the womens 800m with a match bet niyonsaba v savinova and niyonsaba is a non runner so i assume that market will be voided i don't have any special knowledge and want to back runner a the bookies should be in astronger position than me to get to hear about any withdrawals before i do i knew niyonsaba wasn't running a week ago yet stan james and betfred still had markets with her quoted so maybe that is just being lazy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waynecoyne Posted August 13, 2013 Author Share Posted August 13, 2013 Re: WORLD ATHLETICS CHAMPIONSHIP 2013 fantastic vault from isinbaeva symmonds close no cigar Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waynecoyne Posted August 13, 2013 Author Share Posted August 13, 2013 Re: WORLD ATHLETICS CHAMPIONSHIP 2013 mens 400mh you may all laugh at this one i have been impressed with both of emir bekric's runs in the heats and semi he won his heat and just got caught by tinsley in the semi i don't expect him to win or even come second but feel the price is too good to ignore he is 66/1 with bet 365 and ew is 1,2 1/3 i will venture a 2pt ew bet fingers and everything else crossed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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