BBOTD Thursday 8th August

[Blazing Bailey]

Brighton 3.50 - Presburg 12/1 William Hill EW BOG I really cant see why this one is such a big price and its interesting to see that it is much shorter with other firms. The form of his last 3 runs have been very good. Firstly on this track he beat Highland Duke by powering home at the finish and the 2nd has gone on to run really well since, winning the apprentice race at Glorious Goodwood. The 3rd who was 4l back has also ran well since. he has since ran twice at Sandown, the first he was continually hampered and never able to hit top gear meaning he did well to finish 1 1/2l behind the winner (again the form is good) and then on his most recent run he missed the break and again ran on when all the main players race up with the pace. The step up in trip looks set to suit and providing he does, his current price very much underestimates his chances.

[cpo]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 8th August 3.10 Haydock - Whispering Lady 1pt win @ 8/1 Bet365 She is a bit of a nutter, which is a worry but if she can channel all of her energy into racing, then she could go well here. She won well on debut at Lingfield but has since followed that with a couple of indifferent runs. She was reluctant to enter the stalls at Kempton and finished well beaten but it was a hot race. Last time out at Goodwood she did remarkably well to finish just 3 lengths behind the winner in what was a similar standard race to this one. She almost pulled herself up coming out of the stalls and went violently left so she did unbelievably well to finish as close as she did. That run makes me believe there is a good run in her if she can stamp her wayward tendencies out. Trainer remains in decent heart and does well here. Philip Makin taking over from a claimer could also make a difference.

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 8th August Leopardstown Ballyroan Stakes (Group 3) - 6:45 In summary I feel there is massive value in backing Scintillula here as she was a very close 4th in the Group 1 Irish Oaks two runs back. This is a Group 3 tomorrow with only three rivals and she is third favourite in the betting which does not seem right. She beat Mars very easily last time out and Mars was placed in the St James Palace Stakes behind Dawn Approach and 6th in the Epsom Derby. I think she will take all the beating tomorrow and offers serious value. Scintillula - WIN @ 5/2 Paddy Power

[corky]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 8th August 1845 leopardstown 1pt win ernest hemmingway 11/8 bet365 small field for the richest race of the night and i think it will go to the obrien duo,although the colt has only 2 wins to his name ,and one was a all weather, he should have too much for his rivals,,royal diamond has a 6lb pull for a 5 lengh last time out defeat from the selection,and scintulla may have been better over a shorter trip,she has only ever won over a mile, and one mile 1 furlong, ground and trip should suit ernest hemmingway

[joeblitz]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 8th August 6.45 Leopardstown Royal Diamond 15/8 Paddy Power BOG Well 3 of us going for a different horse in a 4 horse race. I see it this way: Ernest Hemmingway won the Curragh Cup over 14f beating Royal Diamond by 5l receiving 5lbs. Back then the O' Brien horses were firing on all cyllinders but the stable form is a little iffy at the moment. Murtagh on the other hand has had 2 winners in 2 days and now receiving 3 lbs, Royal Diamond is the one to beat now. Scintillula beat Mars over 10f here off the back of a 4th in the Irish Oaks. She is improving and I rate her the main danger to my selection but my rule is very rarely to bet on 3 year olds against older horses in pattern races and I am not changing it here. 1 Point win for nap purposes Royal Diamond 15/8 Paddy Power BOG

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 8th August 210 Haydock: Morocco 6/5 Betfred Morocco won easily last time out and goes here with a penalty and races off 72, its a 0-70 handicap so in the future wont be able race in this grade and has been raised to 74 for future handicaps so in effect is 2lbs well in here and the hint should be taken. The opposition is very weak and a reproduction of his run at Redcar will be good enough. Has ran a couple of stinkers this season but both were over 12f so happy to forgive those.

[chris34]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 8th August 6.30 Southwell Very hot handicap with plenty of course form on offer. The Lock Master goes well around here has never won off a mark this high although apprentice does help to bring his mark down so would be silly to ignore. Hit The Jackpot runs for a shrewd yard but he hasn’t shown much recently and needs to show a lot more on this fibresand debut. Mingun Bell is 2 from 4 around here and is now 7lb below last winning mark but has been in the doldrums lately and needs to bounce back on this surface. Satanic Beat is related to a fibresand winner but is yet to try the surface himself so does need to prove he handles it but on a good mark having gone very close at Hamilton at the weekend. Sofias Number One racked up a fibresand hatrick in the spring failed to match that back on turf and now comes here after a break on a 8lb higher mark than last win and every chance handicapper has him for now. Royal Holiday has a similar profile with very useful form on surface but is now 6lb above last fibresand win and is better when getting a soft lead unlikely to get that today in this competitive heat. For me Winged Icarus is very interesting he bolted up over 7f around here on handicap debut last August penalised fairly hard for that and not cut much mustard back turf since. May still be high enough in the weights but is well drawn to go from the front on return to this surface and that may just be the key to him. The other that interests me is Light Burst who is also 1 from 1 when winning on seasonal reappearance in February off a mark of 80 ran respectably since and has now dropped back to just 2lb above that winning mark he may too have more to offer returned to this surface. 1pt win Winged Icarus 3/1 bet365

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 8th August 3.40 Haydock - 1pt win Yarroom @ 6/1 (Boyles) Posted this last time out:

2.40 Ascot - 2pts win Yarroom @ 20/1 (Bet365) I can't fathom the price of this horse which probably means there's something I'm missing or he's not ripe for this but on form he's no 20/1 shot in my eyes and because of that I'm going to side with him because this is a good Saturday handicap and not a low-grade affair on the all-weather! Of course this is a competitive affair but he hasn't run a bad race in his career to date. He won a Lingfield handicap off a mark of 85 (going away at finish) and only runs off 6lbs higher today. Hasn't won in either of his two starts since then but appeared to bump into one at that same venue next time (being held up didn't suit in that contest either) as the winner's form looks strong and the horse in 3rd (my selection 2nd) is now rated 103 so it looks a smart effort. Can be excused for lacking a bit of fitness when last seen but again that came in a small field and everything this horse has done so far suggests he wants a nice strong gallop to come off and quick ground. Was only beaten two lengths and was keeping on. This race should suit ideally and doesn't look handicapped to the hilt. The issue is the lack of market confidence, especially as he's coming off a 92 day absence but if he's ready to go then I think he'll outrun his odds.

Thought he ran a lot better than the bare form suggests on this occasion, travelling nicely and coming through to lay down a challenge inside the final two furlongs. Looked like he'd play a big part in the finish but backed out of matters quickly in the end to be well beaten. The first six furlongs of that hot, competitive affair shouldn't be forgotten and he was entitled to need it after three months off anyway. Should strip fitter for that and if ready to go has a big chance in this weaker affair.

[Trotter]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 8th August Leop 6.45 - Ernest Hemingway - win at 13/8 bog betvictor Lots of racing today but this is the only group race My selection has always looked a promising type and finally came good last time out, winning a group 3 in impressive fashion. He beat today's second favourite, Royal Diamond, by 5 lengths and although that one is better off in the weights my horse is lightly raced and could be improving. Royal Diamnd has another problem today with the front running filly, Scintillula likely to take him on up front M horse can sit in behind those two, let them knock lumps out of each other, and pick up the pieces Another interesting dimension is that my horse and royal diamond are dropping in trip..........I think my horse might be better suited as RD has never won below 14F and my horse just looks to have more class.

[Boulder5111]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 8th August S6.10 Top Cop 1pt Win 13/2 William Hill This first time headgear and the first time booking of Ryan Moore could just be enough to see this horse improve to win this. The jockey rides this track really well and the extra help from the saddle could see the horse be in the mix off its current plummeting handicap mark. The horse is in fact running off its lowest ever handicap mark but both horses behind Top Cop when TC won its maiden went off to win off higher marks than this.

[arsenalpunter]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 8th August 19.55 Leopardstown The Home Ruler - 1PT Win 14/1 BetVictor The Home Ruler has been seen four times in maiden company and now goes handicapping. He's done most of his racing over shorter distances but arguably one of his better runs came at this distance at Ballinrobe back in May when he kept on well, suggesting this trip may be ideal. He finished behind King of the Romans who since finished 2nd in a much better race at the Curragh and also Modista and Cocktail Hour, both who have won since. Shane Kelly is also on board with his 3lb allowance.

[markmywords]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 8th August 19:05 Southwell God's Gift - Was going to put up Light the City as it is a dual course winner off marks of 54 and 51 and running of 46 but is 5lb out of the handicap and only 7 run. God's Gift run a decent race over course in a maiden over a furlong less back in February. Finished 1 3/4 lengths behind the leader but 14lengths ahead of the rest of the field. God's gift is still a maiden but dropping to class 6 for the 1st time. 1ptwin 11/8 bet365.